Core Viewpoint - Junmeng International (08062) anticipates a net profit after tax of approximately HKD 2.3 million for the six months ending September 30, 2025, compared to a net profit after tax of approximately HKD 9.2 million for the six months ending September 30, 2024 [1] Summary by Categories - **Financial Performance** - The company expects a significant decrease in net profit after tax from HKD 9.2 million to HKD 2.3 million over the specified periods [1] - **Factors Influencing Performance** - The anticipated change in profit is primarily attributed to: - A reduction in revenue and gross profit from the sale of electronic payment terminals and related equipment, as well as from system support and software solution services, due to economic downturn and intense competition [1] - Recognition of losses from an associated company [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, stated that it now seems unlikely that tariffs will lead to a significant economic downturn [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Economic Outlook - The Bank of Japan's assessment indicates that current tariff levels are not expected to cause a major decline in the economy [1]

Core Insights - The U.S. job market showed resilience in June, with an unexpected increase of 147,000 jobs added, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, nearing historical lows [1] - Economic indicators have demonstrated strength, alleviating concerns over rising inflation and potential economic downturns [1] - Federal government employment decreased by 7,000 in June, totaling a reduction of 69,000 since January when the efficiency department was established [1] - Manufacturing employment remained largely unchanged, despite efforts by the Trump administration to boost the sector through tariffs on foreign goods [1]

Core Viewpoint - The decline in the UK economy poses significant challenges for the government's spending plans, which rely on economic growth for funding [1] Economic Performance - The UK GDP fell by 0.3% in April, ending a period of impressive growth in the first quarter [1] - This downturn is seen as unfavorable for the Chancellor of the Exchequer, who has outlined substantial spending commitments [1] Government Spending Plans - The Chancellor's spending commitments include billions of pounds allocated for housing, digital infrastructure, and defense [1] - The sustainability of these commitments is contingent upon reviving the economy and increasing GDP growth to generate more tax revenue [1] Potential Policy Responses - If the economic situation does not improve, the Chancellor may be forced to implement new tax increases later in the year [1]

Core Viewpoint - The slight potential shift in U.S. tariff policy may have temporarily stabilized market sentiment, but some indicators still suggest a possibility of economic downturn [1] Group 1 - Guillermo Hernandez Sampere, the trading head at asset management firm MPPM, commented on the potential changes in U.S. tariff policy [1] - Despite the stabilization in market sentiment, there are still indicators pointing towards a possible economic decline [1]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Meeting Insights - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a cautious stance regarding future interest rate cuts, with economic forecasts remaining neutral[1] - The dot plot from the upcoming meeting is anticipated to be more dispersed, indicating decreased guidance significance from the median expectations of the voting members[2] - Two potential policy scenarios are identified: moderate inflation decline leading to a rate cut in Q2, or persistent inflation resulting in sustained high rates and potential economic downturn[5] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Predictions - The Federal Funds target rate is projected to remain between 4.25% and 4.50%[2] - February's employment data shows a healthy labor market, with non-farm payrolls continuing an upward trend and job openings exceeding expectations[3] - CPI growth in February was below expectations, indicating a cooling in both goods and services inflation, but the Fed remains cautious about declaring a definitive downward trend in inflation[3] Group 3: Future Economic Uncertainties - The uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariff policies is increasing, with significant implications for economic forecasts expected in April[4] - The likelihood of a sharp economic downturn and significant stock market adjustments is considered high if inflation remains stubbornly high, leading to a "remedial" rate cut by the Fed[7] - The end of quantitative tightening (QT) may be on the agenda, especially as the U.S. Treasury approaches the limits of its current funding[7]