Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley believes that while short-term risks related to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy may persist, the significant adjustment in the U.S. stock market is nearing its end, providing a good opportunity for investors to position themselves for 2026. Analysts maintain a bullish stance for the next 12 months, particularly recommending sectors such as consumer goods, healthcare, finance, industrials, and small-cap stocks [1][5][26]. Market Adjustment Insights - Despite a modest 5% pullback in the S&P 500 index, two-thirds of the top 1000 companies have experienced declines exceeding 10%, indicating a substantial internal market adjustment [2][6]. - The adjustment is attributed to two main factors: high momentum stocks are more sensitive to liquidity tightening, and high-quality indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 reacted strongly to hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve [6][8]. Liquidity and Market Conditions - The report highlights that the recent volatility in the U.S. stock market, driven by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and liquidity constraints, presents a buying opportunity for bullish investors [4][7]. - Morgan Stanley anticipates that liquidity conditions will improve as the U.S. government shutdown ends, leading to a significant decrease in the Treasury General Account (TGA) balance, which is expected to enhance liquidity in the short term [16][17]. 2026 Outlook - The firm expresses a contrarian view for 2026, suggesting that the market is in an "early cycle" phase, contrary to the prevailing consensus of being in a "late cycle" [18][19]. - Morgan Stanley projects a 17% earnings growth for Nasdaq-related companies in 2026, surpassing the consensus estimate of 14% [19]. - The firm has upgraded small-cap stocks and non-essential consumer goods to an overweight rating, citing factors such as pent-up demand and a shift in consumer spending from services to goods [20][21]. Earnings and Market Sentiment - Despite the recent market downturn, the underlying fundamentals of companies remain strong, indicating that the current adjustment is driven by policy and liquidity rather than a collapse in fundamentals [22][26]. - The breadth of earnings revisions for the Nasdaq 100 index has increased, with future net profit expectations for major indices continuing to rise, particularly for small-cap stocks [23][24].

Janney Montgomery Scott首席投资策略师Mark Luschini表示，自10月下旬开始的美股调整似乎尚未完全 结束。市场已呈现超卖状态，为技术性反弹创造了条件，但即将发布的经济数据将成为决定性因素—— 这些可能影响美联储降息预期的数据，将决定反弹力度或是否需要更深度回调来吸引买家。（格隆汇） ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market experienced a significant pullback after reaching record highs, driven by disappointing non-farm payroll data and renewed concerns over tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, leading to increased market volatility and a rise in the VIX index [1] Economic Indicators - The non-farm employment report fell short of expectations, raising concerns about the labor market and potentially signaling a downturn in hiring [1] - The yield on U.S. Treasury bonds dropped sharply, indicating a flight to safety among investors amid rising economic uncertainties [1] Market Reactions - The VIX index surged close to 22, surpassing the psychological threshold of 20, reflecting heightened investor anxiety [1] - Online brokerage firm IG's chief market analyst noted that a series of poor economic data has negatively impacted the stock market, particularly in light of tariff-related concerns [1] Technical Analysis - Technical indicators have turned bearish, suggesting a potential short-term reversal in the current market trend, which may lead to a slight pullback in the coming weeks [1] - Charles Schwab highlighted that despite the recent peak in the stock market, the combination of weak employment data and tariff fears has resulted in a significant market decline [1] Future Outlook - The net economic effects of Trump's tariffs remain uncertain, indicating that trade and tariff discussions are likely to remain a focal point in the news over the coming months [1]

Group 1: Gold Market - Spot gold experienced a significant sell-off, closing down by $44.44, a decline of 1.3%, settling at $3387.22 [1] - As of today, gold continues to decline, hovering around $3363 [1] Group 2: U.S. Stock Market and Economic Indicators - U.S. stock indices opened higher, with the Dow Jones up 1.14%, Nasdaq slightly up by 0.61%, and S&P 500 rising by 0.78% [2] - There is an increasing market expectation for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in 2026, with traders now anticipating a reduction of 76 basis points, up from just 25 basis points in April [5][7] - High-risk appetite among investors is noted, with a confidence index rising from 3.3 to 4.3, the highest level since February [8] - Retail investors purchased approximately $50 billion worth of stocks in the past month, aligning with Barclays' estimates [8] Group 3: U.S. Trade Policy - President Trump announced plans to impose simple tariffs ranging from 15% to 50% on most countries, with ongoing negotiations with the EU for lower tariffs if they open their markets [4] - This tariff strategy may create a "negotiation package" template, potentially affecting trade relations with multiple countries [4] Group 4: International Relations and Conflicts - A military clash occurred between Thailand and Cambodia, with both sides confirming the exchange of fire [13] - In Ukraine, significant anti-government protests erupted following a controversial law limiting anti-corruption agency powers, marking the first large-scale protests since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict [15] - Russia and Ukraine have initiated a new round of direct negotiations in Istanbul, with previous rounds held in May and June [16]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Meeting Insights - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a cautious stance regarding future interest rate cuts, with economic forecasts remaining neutral[1] - The dot plot from the upcoming meeting is anticipated to be more dispersed, indicating decreased guidance significance from the median expectations of the voting members[2] - Two potential policy scenarios are identified: moderate inflation decline leading to a rate cut in Q2, or persistent inflation resulting in sustained high rates and potential economic downturn[5] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Predictions - The Federal Funds target rate is projected to remain between 4.25% and 4.50%[2] - February's employment data shows a healthy labor market, with non-farm payrolls continuing an upward trend and job openings exceeding expectations[3] - CPI growth in February was below expectations, indicating a cooling in both goods and services inflation, but the Fed remains cautious about declaring a definitive downward trend in inflation[3] Group 3: Future Economic Uncertainties - The uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariff policies is increasing, with significant implications for economic forecasts expected in April[4] - The likelihood of a sharp economic downturn and significant stock market adjustments is considered high if inflation remains stubbornly high, leading to a "remedial" rate cut by the Fed[7] - The end of quantitative tightening (QT) may be on the agenda, especially as the U.S. Treasury approaches the limits of its current funding[7]