格隆汇8月3日丨据一财，上周美股冲高回落，非农就业报告不及预期引发劳动力市场担忧，加上特朗普 政府再挥关税大棒，导致市场风险偏好骤然降温，美债收益率跳水，恐慌指数VIX尾盘拉升近22%，突 破重要心理关口20。随着经济裂痕迹象显现，外界将持续关注后续贸易谈判进程，并评估美联储降息前 景，短期技术指标恶化或预示股指调整还将继续。 在线经纪商IG首席市场分析师毕肖普表示，一系列糟糕的数据进一步打击了受关税消息影响的股市。 在担心关税对价格的影响后，人们现在担心的是招聘即将崩溃。嘉信理财在市场展望中写道，美股上周 盘中创下历史新高，但在非农就业报告疲软和关税阴影后大幅回落。技术面出现看跌信号，往往表明当 前趋势的短期转变，因此可能会在未来几周内出现小幅回调。特朗普关税的经济净效应仍然未知，因此 贸易/关税的话题可能会在未来几个月内继续成为头条新闻。 ...

Group 1: Gold Market - Spot gold experienced a significant sell-off, closing down by $44.44, a decline of 1.3%, settling at $3387.22 [1] - As of today, gold continues to decline, hovering around $3363 [1] Group 2: U.S. Stock Market and Economic Indicators - U.S. stock indices opened higher, with the Dow Jones up 1.14%, Nasdaq slightly up by 0.61%, and S&P 500 rising by 0.78% [2] - There is an increasing market expectation for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in 2026, with traders now anticipating a reduction of 76 basis points, up from just 25 basis points in April [5][7] - High-risk appetite among investors is noted, with a confidence index rising from 3.3 to 4.3, the highest level since February [8] - Retail investors purchased approximately $50 billion worth of stocks in the past month, aligning with Barclays' estimates [8] Group 3: U.S. Trade Policy - President Trump announced plans to impose simple tariffs ranging from 15% to 50% on most countries, with ongoing negotiations with the EU for lower tariffs if they open their markets [4] - This tariff strategy may create a "negotiation package" template, potentially affecting trade relations with multiple countries [4] Group 4: International Relations and Conflicts - A military clash occurred between Thailand and Cambodia, with both sides confirming the exchange of fire [13] - In Ukraine, significant anti-government protests erupted following a controversial law limiting anti-corruption agency powers, marking the first large-scale protests since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict [15] - Russia and Ukraine have initiated a new round of direct negotiations in Istanbul, with previous rounds held in May and June [16]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Meeting Insights - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a cautious stance regarding future interest rate cuts, with economic forecasts remaining neutral[1] - The dot plot from the upcoming meeting is anticipated to be more dispersed, indicating decreased guidance significance from the median expectations of the voting members[2] - Two potential policy scenarios are identified: moderate inflation decline leading to a rate cut in Q2, or persistent inflation resulting in sustained high rates and potential economic downturn[5] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Predictions - The Federal Funds target rate is projected to remain between 4.25% and 4.50%[2] - February's employment data shows a healthy labor market, with non-farm payrolls continuing an upward trend and job openings exceeding expectations[3] - CPI growth in February was below expectations, indicating a cooling in both goods and services inflation, but the Fed remains cautious about declaring a definitive downward trend in inflation[3] Group 3: Future Economic Uncertainties - The uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariff policies is increasing, with significant implications for economic forecasts expected in April[4] - The likelihood of a sharp economic downturn and significant stock market adjustments is considered high if inflation remains stubbornly high, leading to a "remedial" rate cut by the Fed[7] - The end of quantitative tightening (QT) may be on the agenda, especially as the U.S. Treasury approaches the limits of its current funding[7]