（来源：半月谈） 转自：半月谈 【#全球央行购金节奏已有所放缓#】#世界黄金协会2026金价预判##黄金白银价格双双暴跌原因# 当地 时间29日，世界黄金协会发布的2025年《全球黄金需求趋势报告》显示，2025年全球黄金总需求首次超 过5千吨，创历史新高。2025年全球央行购金量达863吨，购金规模仍处于历史高位，但与过去三年相 比，央行购金节奏有所放缓。世界黄金协会相关负责人表示，2025年见证了全球黄金需求的激增和金价 的大幅飙升。持续的经济和地缘政治风险已成为"新常态"，消费者和投资者纷纷买入并持有黄金。黄金 投资需求成为全年焦点。展望2026年，经济和地缘政治不确定性几乎没有缓解迹象，世界黄金协会预 计，黄金ETF仍将持续录得强劲流入，在全球央行持续大力购金的支撑下，金条和金币需求保持稳健， 在金价长期处于高位的环境下，金饰需求预计仍将承压。 ...

尽管高金价环境下金饰需求有所下降，但消费者和投资者仍纷纷买入黄金。 展望未来，经济和地缘政治不确定性或将继续支撑黄金需求，短期需谨防高位大幅震荡。 美联储维持利率不变，但交易员加大了对6月降息的押注，强化了黄金作为抗通胀资产的吸引力。今年 迄今金价已累计上涨超25%，实物需求同步升温。 世界黄金协会报告显示，2025年全球黄金总需求达5002吨，创历史新高，投资需求成为主要驱动力。 摘要周四，现货黄金价格大幅上涨，突破每盎司5500美元，创下历史新高，COMEX期金也一度涨逾 5%。 周四，现货黄金价格大幅上涨，突破每盎司5500美元，创下历史新高，COMEX期金也一度涨逾5%。 ...

新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 黄金资讯—— 1月28日，基准的10年期美债收益率收报4.250%，对美联储政策利率敏感的2年期美债收益率收报 3.586%。因持续的经济和地缘政治不确定性，投资者继续涌向贵金属。现货黄金开盘持续上涨，重回 5080美元附近后陷入震荡，随后在美盘时段暴力拉升，并将历史新高刷新至5190美元上方，最终收涨 3.41%，报5179.40美元/盎司；现货白银日内震荡上行，并重回110关口上方，最终大涨8.39%，报112.32 美元/盎司。由于一场冬季风暴导致美国原油产量锐减，原油一度跳涨近3%。WTI原油在美盘前开启涨 势，并冲上62美元，最终收涨2.84%，报62.65美元/桶；布伦特原油收涨2.61%，报66.53美元/桶。 黄金最新行情走势—— 昨日黄金市场早盘开盘在5012.9美元/盎司，后行情小幅回踩给出5010.8美元/盎司，后行情强势拉升， 给出5100附近后整理回落美盘盘中时段受到美国总统言论影响再次破位历史高点拉升，日线最高触及到 了5190.7的历史新高位置后整理，日线最终收线在了5180.8美元/盎司，后日线以一根上影线稍长的饱和 大阳线收线，而这样的 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have surged nearly 3% recently, driven by weak U.S. economic data and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with forecasts suggesting prices could reach $5,000 per ounce by year-end [1][3][5] Economic Indicators - U.S. private sector job cuts exceeded 150,000 in October, marking the highest level for this period in over 20 years, indicating a slowdown in the labor market [3] - The U.S. consumer confidence index dropped significantly to 50.3 in November, the lowest since June 2022, below market expectations [3] - Market expectations for a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve stand at 64%, with a 77% probability for January [3][4] Government Actions - The U.S. Senate has advanced a funding measure to reopen the government, which could enhance the clarity of economic data related to employment and inflation [4] - The potential end of the government shutdown is expected to shift market focus back to deteriorating U.S. fiscal prospects, historically supporting gold investments [4] Gold Market Trends - Gold prices have seen a decline of approximately 6% since reaching a record high of $4,380 per ounce in mid-October, yet remain up over 56% year-to-date [5] - Analysts predict gold prices could range between $4,200 and $4,300 per ounce by year-end, with further increases expected in the first quarter of next year [5] Gold Token Developments - The rise of gold tokens, such as Tether Gold (XAUT), has been noted, with XAUT's market cap increasing from $1.44 billion to nearly $2.1 billion in October, reflecting a 60% surge [6] - Gold tokens currently represent about 1% of the stablecoin market, with a total market cap of approximately $3 billion compared to $300 billion for dollar-backed stablecoins [6][7] Investment Risks - Concerns have been raised regarding the risks associated with gold tokens, including counterparty risks and the reliability of redeeming physical gold [7][8] - Recent reports indicate that even stablecoins pegged to the dollar can break their peg during extreme market conditions, highlighting potential vulnerabilities in the gold token market [7]