今天的这篇文章，主要是分析，印度开放中国公民旅游签证的利弊、恒生科技跳水后的操作策略、12月美联储降息与否的影响以及黄金的避险逻辑这四大热 点。 这些热点背后的机会与风险你都摸清了，接下来会优先布局哪个方向呢？ 最近的市场和国际局势简直比连续剧还抓马，前有印度突然对中国游客"敞开心扉"，后有恒生科技反复上演"跳水名场面"，美联储的降息大戏更是吊足胃 口，连铜价都跟着AI热潮疯狂上分。 这些热点背后藏着哪些门道呢？ 谁能想到，之前在外交圈主打"相爱相杀"戏码的中印两国，这刚迈入秋冬就突然开启"甜度超标"模式！ 当地时间11月21日，印度官方直接官宣重磅消息，全面恢复中国公民的全球旅游签证办理，把2020年以来延续五年的签证限制，干脆利落地扫进了历史垃圾 堆。 再加上此前已经重启的商业直航，这两套政策组合拳一出，硬是把之前只能隔空相望、略显疏离的双边关系，直接拉回了双向奔赴的正轨。 有意思的是签证办理的"隐形门槛"，如今申请印度旅游签需要10万元存款证明，比五年前提高了10倍，电子签证通道也没恢复，必须亲自去指定签证中心提 交材料。 要知道今年7月，印度还只开放了驻华使馆以及上海、广州、香港这几个少数领馆的签证通 ...

黄金方面： 周五晚间美联储官员威廉姆斯发表讲话，他认为近期存在降息空间，财政政策可能将中性利率推高了25至50个基点。这一降息 言论导致美联储12月降息概率从40%，猛涨至70%左右。 据相关媒体报道，美国和乌克兰代表23日表示，双方当日在瑞士日内瓦就美方提出的结束俄乌冲突28点新计划举行会谈，并取 得实质性进展。未来几天，乌美双方将继续推进联合方案，并将与欧洲国家展开磋商。 地缘政治方面，11月22日，乌克兰表示将努力以体面的和平结束冲突，俄乌冲突有望结束。当前俄罗斯原油出口总量较冲突前 下降约70万桶/日，市场担忧一旦制裁解除，俄油将全面回归市场。 供需端方面，原油供应过剩成为油价下行的主要原因。从季节性角度看，当前消费端处于淡季，预计全球原油市场在2025年年 底至2026年一季度将面临较大的累库压力。EIA和IEA分别预计明年第一季度日均累库270万桶和472万桶，这将对油价构成压 力。 百利好特约智昇研究投资策略师麦东认为，近期利多和利空因素轮番上演，但是多空双方都没有占据市场的主导地位，黄金价 格仍处在震荡，今日价格恐将延续震荡态势。 技术面：周线收下影线较长的小阴线。日线级别，金价处在震荡之中。 ...

黄金方面： 11月20日晚间，美联储公布9月非农数据报告，内容显示，就业人口11.9万，远超预期的5万人。失业率从4.3%升至4.4%。 这是一份好坏参半的数据，9月就业人数大幅增长，但8月数据下修至负值，同时失业率意外上涨，市场认为就业市场仍在持续恶化。 这份非农报告虽然滞后，但却是美联储12月会议前的最后一份报告。美国劳工局取消发布10月非农就业报告，并将11月非农延期至12月16日发布，赶不上12 月11日的美联储会议。 百利好特约智昇研究投资策略师麦东认为，从今晚的数据看，美联储12月没有降息的必要，美联储12月很可能按兵不动。 技术面：日线级别，价格收阴线。1小时级别，均线趋平，布林线收拢，市场进入震荡。今日上方关注4110美元附近的压力，下方重点关注4040美元附近的 支撑。 日线级别，昨日市场收小阳线。1小时级别，昨日价格在120均线受到压力再次下行，但价格并未跌破4.90美元。今日下方关注4.90美元的支撑，上方关注 4.98美元的压力。 黄金小时图 原油方面： 据国外媒体报道，美国高级官员称：结束俄乌冲突的计划是在与乌克兰国家安全与国防委员会秘书乌梅罗夫磋商后制定的，乌梅罗夫在提出几项修改意 ...

智通财经APP获悉，中信建投证券发布研报称，11月以来，金价与纳指多次同涨同跌，二者分属避险和 风险资产，其相关性上升，引发更深层次风险的担忧。货币市场流动性冲击，不太可能是主要原因。近 期，随着月末扰动、美国政府关门等因素消退，资金利率已经回落，压力边际缓解。 幕后推手可能是复苏预期下的联储紧缩担忧。美联储政策的方向性变化，往往造成大类资产在短期的统 一走势。近期，出现复苏和再通胀预期（减税、降息、贸易缓和等），降息预期收敛，叠加科技公司深 陷债务融资质疑，黄金和纳指均遭受利空，相关性上升。 实际上，上述现象不局限在黄金和纳指的范畴内，大类资产整体的趋同性，在近期均有所加强。选取全 球常见的股债汇商等资产，计算其相关性水平，显示：10月以来，整体资产正向关联水平持续上升，11 月后，处于过去两年的偏高水平，且保持在历史均值之上。因此，纳指和黄金的同涨同跌，可能不是孤 立现象，而是更广泛存在。 货币市场趋紧、资金利率走高带来的流动性冲击，不太可能是主要原因。在11月第一周，美股开始调 整，黄金也未能幸免，市场普遍将原因归咎于流动性危机，当时短端资金利率出现明显抬升，政府关门 导致财政存款激增、商业银行准备金骤 ...

黄金方面： 近期原油市场的重心一直围绕俄罗斯的供应展开，从乌克兰攻击俄罗斯的原油设施开始，到欧美制裁俄罗斯原油出口取得阶段性的成果，都支撑了油价短线 走高。 技术面：日线级别，昨日原油收阳线。1小时级别，市场突破矩形震荡，并进一步试探61.20美元的压力关口。当前价格在60/120日均线上方运行，但是从均 线的斜率来看，多方的优势并不明显，今日需关注价格能否在61.20美元上方继续运行。下方关注60.10美元的支撑，上方关注61.40美元的压力。 本轮的下跌，主要原因是近期美联储多位官员相继发表鹰派言论，导致市场降息预期下降。 11月初市场一度预期美联储12月降息概率超过80%。短期降息预期快速下降收紧了市场的流动性，推动了美元指数走强也压制了金价。 随着11月18日，美联储官员沃勒重申，美联储应在12月会议上再次降息。一定程度上刺激了黄金多头的情绪，促使金价短暂抬升。 百利好特约智昇研究投资策略师麦东认为，黄金价格下跌的持续性不强，市场交易逻辑将回归基本面。短期内，市场逐渐把重点转移至本周四公布的9月美 国非农就业数据。 技术面：日线级别，价格收下影线较长的小阴线。1小时级别，价格突破60日均线，市场进入弱 ...

Group 1: Gold Market - The Federal Reserve officials have expressed cautious attitudes towards interest rate cuts in December, putting downward pressure on gold prices [2] - Fed officials, including Collins and Bostic, indicate a high threshold for further rate cuts due to ongoing inflation concerns, with Bostic preferring to maintain rates until clear evidence shows inflation returning to the 2% target [2] - Market liquidity has stabilized following the end of the U.S. government shutdown, supporting precious metals, but the cautious stance on rate cuts has significantly reduced expectations, further pressuring gold prices [2] Group 2: Oil Market - Ukraine has claimed to have struck the Russian oil company Novokubyshevsk refinery, marking the latest in a series of attacks on Russian oil production facilities [4] - The Ukrainian military reported explosions and fires in the targeted area but did not specify the extent of the damage; they also updated the results of a previous attack on the Ryazan refinery, indicating damage to two major processing units and a storage tank [4] - The focus in the oil market remains on the escalating tensions in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, raising concerns over Russian oil supply [5] Group 3: Copper Market - The copper market has shown a downward trend, with prices closing lower and trading below the 60/120-day moving averages [7] - There is a divergence in price movement, and attention is on whether a market correction will occur, with support at $4.90 and resistance at $5.01 [7] Group 4: Nasdaq Index - The Nasdaq index is fluctuating between 24,500 and 25,700, forming a descending triangle pattern [8] - The index is trading below the 60/120-day moving averages, continuing its downward trend, with a key level to watch at 24,600 for potential breakdown [8]

格隆汇11月13日｜标普500指数跌1%，道指跌0.6%，纳指跌1.7%。 ...

Group 1: Gold Market - The Israeli military conducted a raid in the West Bank, leading to increased tensions in the Middle East, which has limited impact on gold prices according to analysts [2] - The Federal Reserve signaled a potential delay in interest rate cuts, making upcoming employment data crucial for future monetary policy [2] - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices are consolidating within the range of $3950 to $4040, with support at $3950 and resistance at $4040 [2] Group 2: Oil Market - OPEC+ announced an increase in oil production quotas by 137,000 barrels per day starting in December, despite previously reducing output by 1.65 million barrels per day [5] - The group plans to pause the increase in production in early 2026 due to seasonal factors, with the potential for restoring the previous cuts depending on market conditions [5] - Technical analysis shows that oil prices are facing resistance around $62.50 and have recently rebounded near $59.70, indicating a consolidation phase [5] Group 3: Copper Market - The copper market is showing signs of weakness, with prices remaining above $5 but experiencing a downward trend [5] - Technical indicators suggest a short-term decline, with support at $4.97 and resistance at $5.12 [5] Group 4: Nasdaq Market - The Nasdaq index is in a consolidation phase at historical highs, with a symmetrical triangle pattern observed [6] - Key support is noted at 25,750 and resistance at 26,120, with attention on potential breakout from the triangle [6]

Gold Market - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated that the U.S. labor market is weakening and signs of recession are emerging, with the asset balance sheet reduction process likely to end in October [1] - Following Powell's remarks, the probability of an interest rate cut in October rose from 92% to 97%, with market expectations largely priced in [1] - The implied volatility (fear index) approached 33, indicating significant market anxiety, but remains below the April level of 38; gold continues to be a favored safe-haven asset with potential for further price increases [1] - Technical analysis shows a bullish trend for gold, with support at $4150 and resistance at $4240 [1] Oil Market - The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported a potential surplus of up to 4 million barrels per day in the global oil market by 2026, a significant increase from previous forecasts [2] - OPEC+ and its competitors are increasing production while global demand recovery remains weak, exacerbating supply-demand imbalances [2] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Ukraine, may influence oil prices, with ongoing support expected from NATO and the EU [2] - Technical analysis indicates a bearish trend for oil, with support at $57.50 and resistance at $59.30 [2] Dollar Index - The U.S. Senate failed to pass a temporary funding bill, resulting in a government shutdown, which may impact the dollar's strength [3] - Market expectations for a European Central Bank rate cut are rising, potentially leading to a weaker euro [3] - Technical analysis shows a bearish trend for the dollar index, with support at 98.50 and resistance at 99.50 [4] Nasdaq Index - The Nasdaq index closed positively, currently consolidating within the 24000-25200 range, with a focus on potential new highs [5] - Technical analysis indicates support at 24550 and resistance at 24950 [5] Copper Market - The copper market closed negatively, facing resistance at $5.12, with current prices forming a symmetrical triangle pattern [6] - Technical analysis shows support at $4.90 and resistance at $5.05 [6] Market Overview - On October 15, gold prices reached a new high of $4199 [7]

Core Viewpoint - Paul Tudor Jones, founder of Tudor Investment, predicts that the Nasdaq could see a significant rally by the end of the year if major tech companies report positive earnings and if the U.S.-China trade conflict is resolved [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Nasdaq has already risen approximately 17% this year, driven by the surge in artificial intelligence [1] Group 2: Economic Forecast - Jones anticipates that the Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate will be around 2.5% by this time next year [1]