Group 1: Gold Market - The meeting between Trump and congressional leaders on September 29 raises concerns about a potential government shutdown, with over 60% probability if no agreement is reached by September 30, which could lead to a data vacuum and increased investment in gold as a safe haven [2] - The PCE price index released on the previous Friday met market expectations, reinforcing the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in October, which is a key driver for the continuous rise in gold prices [2] - Analyst Mai Dong from Bailihao believes that the rate cut cycle supports the ongoing increase in gold prices, alongside heightened risk aversion due to the potential government shutdown, leading to new historical highs for gold [2] Group 2: Oil Market - OPEC+ confirmed an increase in production by at least 137,000 barrels per day starting in November, although current production is nearly 500,000 barrels per day below targets, indicating a risk of oversupply in the market [2] - The IEA warns of a potential oversupply in global oil markets before 2026, with OPEC+ focusing on market share rather than price management due to ongoing production increases [3] - The resumption of oil exports from northern Iraq after a two-year pause may further ease supply constraints, contributing to a more pronounced short-term volatility in the oil market [3] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The U.S. Federal funds are set to run out on October 1, raising the risk of a government shutdown [5] - The European Central Bank may need to adjust its policy stance due to weak economic growth, as indicated by comments from ECB President Lagarde [3] - Upcoming key economic data includes the Chicago PMI and JOLTs job openings, which could influence market sentiment [10]

Gold Market - The Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut has led to uncertainty, as Powell emphasized that future cuts will depend on upcoming meetings [2] - The current pullback in gold prices is seen as normal profit-taking, and the overall trend remains unchanged [2] - Despite an 80% probability of a rate cut in October, key economic data such as core PCE and non-farm payrolls are still pending, leading to a temporary market adjustment [2] - Technical analysis indicates a bearish trend in the short term, with support at $3615 and resistance at $3665 [2] Oil Market - Geopolitical tensions are influencing oil prices, with Trump urging countries to stop purchasing Russian oil to lower prices and end the Ukraine conflict [4] - OPEC+ has decided to continue increasing production, but the increase is below expectations, which, along with ongoing geopolitical issues, is providing some support for oil prices [5] - The oil market is expected to remain in a low volatility range, with prices consolidating between $61.50 and $64.80 [5] - Technical indicators show a bearish trend, with support at $62.40 and resistance at $64.10 [5] Nasdaq Index - The Nasdaq index has reached a new historical high, with strong upward momentum indicated by MACD, although caution is advised due to potential market pullbacks [7] - Support is noted at 24300 and resistance at 24550 [7] US Dollar Index - The US Dollar Index has formed a bullish reversal signal, with a short-term upward trend and a recent breakthrough of the 120-day moving average [8] - Support is at 97.10 and resistance at 97.80 [8]

黄金方面： 今日早间（9月17日），美国石油协会公布了美国至9月12日当周API原油库存，公布值减少342万桶，相较于前值增加125万桶，库存大幅减少，表明近期消 费较好。 地缘政治方面，周二，俄罗斯国防部发布战报称，在过去一天，俄军多个集团军在苏梅、哈尔科夫、顿涅茨克、扎波罗热等方向打击乌军。 俄军摧毁了西方提供给乌克兰的武器装备后勤配送中心和远程无人机储存和发射点。 乌克兰方面称，16日凌晨再次对俄罗斯萨拉托夫州炼油厂实施精确打击。 综合来看，俄乌局势的再次趋于紧张，助力了油价，叠加美联储即将降息，拉动了美国国内工商业的投资，进而带动原油消费的攀升。 周二（9月16日），美国商务部公布的数据显示，8月份美国零售销售月率为0.6%，与7月份的0.6%持平，远好于市场预期0.2%。数据公布后，现货黄金短线 下挫，跌破3690美元，又迅速收复失地，一度向上突破3700美元关口。 地缘政治方面，近几日，俄罗斯安全会议副主席梅德韦杰夫再次向支持乌克兰的北约发出严正警告，如果北约国家在"特别军事行动"期间，在乌克兰上空击 落俄罗斯的无人机，这将使俄罗斯与北约处于战争状态。 智昇研究投资策略师麦东认为，黄金不惧短线的利 ...

Group 1: Gold Market - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) unexpectedly declined by 0.1% in August, reinforcing expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut [1] - President Trump criticized Fed Chairman Powell, urging immediate and significant rate cuts, claiming there is no inflation [1] - Analyst Mai Dong noted that the PPI drop indicates effective control of inflation, shifting the Fed's focus from curbing inflation to promoting employment and economic growth [1] Group 2: Oil Market - U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 3.939 million barrels for the week ending September 5, indicating weak demand [2] - Geopolitical tensions from the Russia-Ukraine conflict have led to concerns about an escalation of war, causing a short-term rise in oil prices [2] - Despite geopolitical factors, the fundamental supply-demand imbalance continues to suppress oil price increases [2] Group 3: Dollar Index - A federal judge blocked the removal of Fed Governor Cook, while the Trump administration quickly appealed, escalating tensions between Trump and the Fed [3] - The U.S. Senate Banking Committee approved the nomination of Milan to the Fed, who is expected to participate in the upcoming monetary policy meeting [3] - The European Central Bank is anticipated to maintain interest rates, with expectations for a potential rate cut in December [3] Group 4: Nasdaq - The Nasdaq index closed higher, trading within the 23,000-24,000 range, having recently hit a historical high before retreating below 24,000 [4] - The market remains in an upward trend, with support at 23,750 [4] Group 5: Copper Market - Copper prices closed higher, showing signs of recovery after a significant downturn [5] - The market broke through the $4.45-$4.52 range, establishing a short-term upward trend [5]

Core Insights - The VIX volatility index experienced a daily increase of 20.0%, reaching 19.35 [1] - The S&P 500 index declined by over 1.5%, while the Dow Jones fell by 1.2% and the Nasdaq dropped by 1.8% [1] - Spot gold prices rose by more than 1.3%, hitting a historical high above $3520 [1] - The US dollar appreciated against the Japanese yen by over 0.7% and against the Swiss franc by 0.4% [1] - The yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond increased by over 4.6 basis points, although it significantly deviated from the daily high of 4.3043% recorded at 20:33 Beijing time [1]

Group 1 - Canada will implement tariff exemptions on many U.S. goods under the USMCA agreement [1] - The Canadian dollar depreciated over 0.5% against the U.S. dollar, trading at 1.3838 [1] - The Canadian stock index maintained a gain of approximately 1%, stabilizing near the historical high of 28,340.87 points following Fed Chair Powell's speech [1] Group 2 - The yield on Canadian 10-year government bonds rebounded, nearly recovering losses incurred after Powell's dovish remarks [1] - The two-year Canadian bond yield remained over a 4 basis point decline, trading around 2.69%, having briefly dipped below 2.67% post-speech [1] - U.S. stock indices saw significant gains, with the Dow Jones up 840 points (1.87%), S&P 500 up 1.55%, and Nasdaq up 400 points (1.9%) [1]

Group 1: Gold Market - Federal Reserve official Goolsbee indicated that despite some recent inflation data being better than expected, there are dangerous signals, and he hopes this is only a temporary phenomenon [2] - Goolsbee noted that the latest inflation report shows an increase in service sector inflation, which may not be driven by tariffs [2] - Fed Chair Powell acknowledged that current policy measures have been undermined by rising inflation and are expected to be eliminated, with a detailed policy statement anticipated at the upcoming annual meeting [2] Group 2: Oil Market - The UK Treasury announced sanctions against Iran's Shamkhani company, which supports hostile activities against the UK and its allies [4] - Following the sanctions, reports emerged of the US imposing sanctions on vessels and entities related to Iran, leading to a rise in oil prices [4] - Geopolitical tensions are heightened as US naval patrols in the Caribbean may serve as a military deterrent against oil-producing nations like Venezuela [5] Group 3: Technical Analysis - In the gold market, the price is maintaining a bullish trend with support at $3,330 and resistance at $3,355 [2] - For oil, the price is fluctuating between $61.80 and $64.50, with support at $62.80 and resistance at $64.50 [5] - The Nasdaq index is experiencing a downward trend with support around $23,050 and a focus on closing above $23,400 for the week [7] - The US Dollar Index is in an upward trend, with a focus on closing above $98.40 for the week [8]

Group 1: Gold Market - The Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes revealed that most officials emphasized inflation risks over labor market concerns, leading to a split in opinions regarding tariff policies [2] - Following the release of the minutes, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September decreased from 92% to 81%, with market focus shifting to Powell's speech at the central bank's annual meeting [2] - Technical analysis indicates a bullish signal with prices breaking above the 60/120-day moving averages, with support at $3335 and resistance at $3358 [2] Group 2: Oil Market - The EIA reported a decrease in U.S. crude oil inventories by 601.4 thousand barrels, contrasting with expectations of a decline of 175.9 thousand barrels [4] - The IEA forecasts that global oil production will increase by 2.5 million barrels per day by 2025, reaching 105.5 million barrels, and will further rise by 1.9 million barrels per day in 2026 [4] - Despite the significant drop in inventories, oil prices remain weak due to an oversupply situation, with prices fluctuating between $61.80 and $64.50 [5] Group 3: Nasdaq and Dollar Index - The Nasdaq index showed a bearish trend with a strong rebound near the support level of 22970, focusing on potential reversal signals in the 23100-23300 range [7] - The Dollar Index experienced a spinning top candlestick pattern, with a brief rise into the 98.30-98.65 range before a slight pullback, indicating a focus on testing the 98.50 level [8]

黄金方面： 昨日（8月14日）美国总统特朗普透露，他与俄罗斯总统普京15日将在美国阿拉斯加州举行的会晤，有25%的概率不成功。同时 他也表示，普京已经做好准备，愿意通过谈判结束俄乌冲突，且泽连斯基也展现出对和平的渴望。为了实现和平，特朗普暗示 可能需要召开第二次多边峰会，邀请更多领导人共同商讨解决方案。 数据方面，昨日市场公布7月PPI数据显著上涨，涨幅超出市场预期，显示美国产业链上游面临新一轮的通胀压力。目前该数据 录得自2022年6月以来的最大涨幅，同比涨幅为3.3%，大幅高于6月的2.3%和市场预期的2.6%，是今年2月以来的最高水平。 百利好特约智昇研究投资策略师麦东认为，在会议召开前夕，特朗普提及会议的多种可能性，市场也不再过多解读他的言论。 昨晚的数据仍未改变金价的震荡格局，交易者需要密切关注，晚间美俄谈判的最新进展。 技术面：昨日日线收阴线，金价保持震荡。1小时级别，价格保持窄幅震荡，今日关注下方支撑3320美元，关注上方压力3360美 元。 原油方面： 技术面：昨日日线收阳线，油价低位震荡。1小时级别，价格突破60/120日均线并在上方运行，形成短期上行趋势，今日下方关 注支撑位63.05美元 ...

来源：智昇财论 黄金方面：今日凌晨，美联储官员古尔斯比表示，如果通胀正朝着2%的目标前进，则完全有可能提前 降息，如果信息相互矛盾，则应停止降息或者加息。同时美联储官员博斯蒂克表示，2025年降息一次仍 合适，单次降息取决于劳动力市场是否保持稳健。两位官员相对保守的降息言论，抑制了金价的上涨幅 度。 政治方面，美俄会谈在即，特朗普承诺，如果会晤进展不顺利，不能达成和平协议，将面临非常严重的 后果，制裁可能进一步升级。同时他也表示，这将是一次非常重要的会议，它是在为第二次会议铺路。 市场据此认为，存在"低调承诺，超额兑现"的预期。 政治方面，2022年俄乌战争爆发时，原油价格大幅飙升。周五峰会的进展，可能会导致油价出现大幅波 动。市场分析认为，如果美俄两国宣布达成具有建设性的协议，或者减少对俄罗斯石油出口的部分制 裁，市场会很快消化全球供应增加的预期，从而导致原油价格走低。 技术面：昨日日线收阴线，市场继续下探。1小时级别，市场仍是下降趋势，价格仍在60/120日均线下 方运行，今日关注上方压力位63.40美元，下方关注支撑位61.20美元。 美元指数：美国总统特朗普表示，他可能会稍微提前宣布，下一任的美联储主 ...