Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 3 月 3 日星期二 | | | 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 COMEX 黄金期货涨 1.68%报 5335.90 美元/盎司，COMEX 白银期货跌 3.95%报 89.61 | | | | | 美元/盎司。沪金主力合约上涨 1.14%报 1184.9 元/克，沪银主力合约下跌 3.81%报 | | | | | 22939 元/千克。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、截至 3 月 2 日，全球最大的黄金 ETF SPDR Gold Trust 持仓量为 1101.33 吨， | | | | | 较前一个交易日维持不变。全球最大白银 ETF--iShares Silver Trust 持仓较上日 | | | | | 减少 90.16 吨，当前持仓量为 1590 ...

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices showed resilience, rebounding to approximately $4934.16 per ounce, driven by market bottom-fishing despite a previous drop of over 2% due to reduced risk aversion [1][2][3] Market Environment - Overall trading volume remains relatively low due to some regions being on holiday, which amplifies price volatility [3] - The easing of concerns over conflict escalation due to the "guiding principles" from US-Iran negotiations has compressed the gold risk premium [3] Currency and Commodity Trends - The US dollar index increased by 0.3% on Tuesday, raising the cost of metals priced in dollars [3] - Silver and platinum saw rebounds of 3% and 2% respectively, while copper rose by 1% to $12,705.20 per ton, indicating a cyclical recovery in the overall commodity market [3] Trader Sentiment and Future Outlook - Traders are generally cautious and are closely monitoring the upcoming release of the Federal Reserve's January policy meeting minutes, which will serve as a key indicator for future monetary easing [2][4] - The PCE price index, set to be released on Friday, is expected to directly influence the urgency of interest rate cuts, with minor changes in inflation data potentially triggering new volatility in the metals market [4] - Despite short-term pressure on gold prices from a stronger dollar and delayed rate cut expectations, this price pullback may provide a viable entry point for long-term investors [4]

尽管高金价环境下金饰需求有所下降，但消费者和投资者仍纷纷买入黄金。 展望未来，经济和地缘政治不确定性或将继续支撑黄金需求，短期需谨防高位大幅震荡。 美联储维持利率不变，但交易员加大了对6月降息的押注，强化了黄金作为抗通胀资产的吸引力。今年 迄今金价已累计上涨超25%，实物需求同步升温。 世界黄金协会报告显示，2025年全球黄金总需求达5002吨，创历史新高，投资需求成为主要驱动力。 摘要周四，现货黄金价格大幅上涨，突破每盎司5500美元，创下历史新高，COMEX期金也一度涨逾 5%。 周四，现货黄金价格大幅上涨，突破每盎司5500美元，创下历史新高，COMEX期金也一度涨逾5%。 ...

近期，海外极寒天气引发"蝴蝶效应"，导致约10%的天然气产能因井口冻堵而关停，同时推高取暖和电 力需求，油气能源消耗加大。在此背景下，标普油气ETF（513350）盘中一度上涨7.91%，截至发稿的 最新涨幅为6.78%。标的指数成分股中，KOSMOS能源等美股昨夜大幅收涨。 业内机构指出，除去严寒天气，海外地缘扰动是油价延续走强的关键原因。另外，原油作为"避险资 产"和"抗通胀资产"的补充，也获得一定资金流入，但需注意短期技术性回调风险。 在基金投资方面，投资者可以考虑关注富国基金旗下的标普油气ETF（513350），聚焦美股油气勘探和 生产领域的个股。 每日经济新闻 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant rise in gold and silver prices, driven by geopolitical tensions and market reactions to U.S. government actions, indicating a solid continuation of the commodity "supercycle" [1][4]. Group 1: Price Movements - On Monday, gold futures for February delivery rose by 2.5% to $4,614.70 per ounce, reaching a peak of $4,640.50, while March silver futures surged by 7.3% to $85.09, hitting a high of $86.34, both marking historical records [2]. - Gold futures have seen a cumulative increase of over 100% over the past three years, while silver futures have more than doubled in price over the last four years [2]. Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in Iran, Venezuela, and Greenland, are contributing to the rising demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [4][5]. - The escalation of anti-government protests in Iran has resulted in over 500 deaths, adding uncertainty to the market and supporting gold prices [5]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the current lack of resistance levels in precious metal price charts makes it difficult to predict future price movements, but a target of $5,000 per ounce for gold and $100 for silver is considered reasonable in the coming months [5]. - The potential for a decline in gold prices may only occur if geopolitical issues in Venezuela and Iran are resolved, leading to lower oil prices and inflation levels [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the future trajectory of gold prices, questioning whether they will continue to rise or face a significant directional test by 2026, following a historic surge in prices [1]. Group 1: Gold Price Performance - Gold has been one of the best-performing assets over the past two years, with prices consistently reaching historical highs from 2024 to 2025, significantly outperforming most major asset classes [1]. - In the second half of 2025, gold prices briefly surpassed $4,200 per ounce before experiencing a phase of correction and fluctuating within a high range [1]. Group 2: Inflation Hedge Perspective - Traditionally viewed as an inflation hedge, the relationship between gold prices and inflation is more complex than commonly perceived, with academic studies indicating that this correlation is not stable [2][3]. - Research suggests that gold's hedging effect is more pronounced during extreme inflation or periods of currency credit deterioration [3]. Group 3: Long-term Price Trends - Since the 2010s, gold prices have remained above historical average levels, and the deviation from inflation indicators has approached historical extremes since 2022, indicating a potential reduction in the marginal space for significant price increases [5]. - The likelihood of price adjustments or fluctuations is increasing over time as gold's long-term purchasing power and historical valuation perspectives are considered [5]. Group 4: Safe-Haven Asset Dynamics - Gold's status as a safe-haven asset has been challenged, as it has shown weak or even negative correlation with U.S. equities historically, but this trend has weakened since late 2022, with both asset classes rising in tandem [6]. - Investors often use gold to hedge against macroeconomic and political uncertainties, but historical patterns suggest that simultaneous rises in risk and safe-haven assets are typically temporary [9]. Group 5: Interest Rates and Economic Policy Uncertainty - The traditional negative correlation between gold prices and real interest rates has become unstable, with recent years showing gold maintaining strength even amid high long-term U.S. Treasury yields [11]. - Economic policy uncertainty has been found to have a greater explanatory power for gold prices than geopolitical events, with significant fluctuations in the global economic policy uncertainty index correlating with gold price movements [13]. Group 6: Dollar Index Influence - The U.S. dollar index, as the basis for gold pricing, plays a crucial role, with a weakening dollar often amplifying gold price increases [15]. - A 10% to 20% phase adjustment in gold prices is not unlikely in the first half of 2026, especially if the U.S. political cycle does not enter a high-risk phase; however, this does not indicate a long-term bear market for gold [15].

Group 1 - The core message from the Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes stabilizing the real estate market through city-specific policies, controlling new supply, reducing inventory, and optimizing supply, while encouraging the acquisition of existing residential properties for affordable housing [1][2][3] - For cities with significant inventory pressure, especially third and fourth-tier cities, there will be more support for inventory reduction and acquisition of existing resources [3][4] - In first-tier and strong second-tier cities, the focus will be on controlling new supply and optimizing existing supply, indicating a structural adjustment in new housing supply, with "good housing" becoming the core standard [3][4][5] Group 2 - The real estate market in 2025 is characterized by differentiation rather than a simple decline, with signs of stabilization emerging, particularly in first-tier cities where luxury markets are showing recovery [4][5] - The outlook for 2026 is seen as a critical turning point for reshaping real estate logic, with a shift from merely increasing supply to optimizing it, reducing pressure on the commodity housing market [6][7] - The recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve provides more room for China's central bank to implement monetary easing, potentially driving global capital to seek new value opportunities [8][9] Group 3 - The current phase of the real estate market is prompting a change in buyer logic, with a focus on quality of life and long-term value, making it worthwhile for families with genuine needs to purchase homes now [12][13] - High-quality living is increasingly viewed as part of family wealth, leading to a preference for homeownership over renting among affluent families [12][13] - The project "Meisheng Wutong Yinhai" exemplifies this new purchasing logic, offering a unique lifestyle and asset allocation perspective in Shenzhen's real estate market [14][15][16] Group 4 - The project is located in Yantian, a price-sensitive area compared to other luxury markets in Shenzhen, allowing for easier upgrades in living quality without significant financial burden [16][18] - The development emphasizes the importance of health and wellness, leveraging its unique ecological resources to enhance living quality [20][22] - The project features high-quality amenities and services, creating a self-sufficient high-end ecosystem that caters to the needs of affluent families [33][36][37]

Core Viewpoint - The market is closely watching the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, with a high probability of a 25 basis point rate cut, which could impact gold prices and the broader economic outlook [1][2][3] Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is 88.4%, while the chance of maintaining the current rate is 11.6% [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's term ends in May 2026, and potential successors are being discussed, including Kevin Hassett, who may favor aggressive rate cuts [2] - The market is concerned that a change in leadership at the Federal Reserve could increase the influence of the Trump administration, potentially undermining the Fed's independence [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The ISM Manufacturing PMI for November is at 48.2%, below expectations, indicating continued contraction in the manufacturing sector [3] - Conversely, the ISM Services PMI rose to 52.6%, the highest in nine months, suggesting improvement in the services sector [3] - The ADP report shows a decrease of 32,000 private sector jobs in November, marking the largest decline since March 2023 [3] Group 3: Gold Market Dynamics - Central banks globally continue to increase gold reserves, with a net addition of 53.9 tons in October, highlighting gold's role as a strategic reserve asset [2] - China's gold reserves increased to approximately 2,305.39 tons as of the end of November, marking the 13th consecutive month of increases [2] - The long-term demand for gold is supported by geopolitical uncertainties, rising debt pressures, and the trend towards diversification away from the US dollar [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the anticipated interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve, with a high probability of a 25 basis point cut in December, which could impact gold prices and the broader market [1][2][3] - The CME FedWatch Tool indicates an 88.4% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December, with market participants closely monitoring the Fed's statement and Chairman Powell's guidance on future monetary policy [1] - The U.S. manufacturing sector continues to decline, while the service sector shows signs of recovery, with the ISM manufacturing PMI at 48.2% and the ISM services PMI rising to 52.6%, indicating a mixed economic outlook [3] Group 2 - Central banks globally are increasing their gold reserves, with a net addition of 53.9 tons in October, highlighting gold's strategic asset role amid economic uncertainties [2] - China's gold reserves reached 7.412 million ounces (approximately 2305.39 tons) by the end of November, marking a continuous increase for 13 months, reflecting a strong commitment to gold accumulation [2] - The long-term support for gold prices remains robust due to geopolitical uncertainties, rising debt pressures in major economies, and the ongoing trend of diversification away from the U.S. dollar [3]

Group 1 - The iShares Silver Trust reported a holding of 15,610.54 tons of silver as of November 28, with an increase of 28.21 tons from the previous trading day [1] - On November 28, the spot silver price closed at $56.71 per ounce, marking a 6.12% increase, with intraday prices reaching a high of $56.78 and a low of $53.30 [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve has initiated a new round of easing since September, with two consecutive 25 basis point cuts, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 3.75% to 4% [3] - Market expectations suggest further rate cuts may occur in the December meeting, which has led to increased demand for silver as an inflation hedge [3] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has fallen to around 4%, significantly reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding precious metals [3] - Discussions surrounding debt sustainability, Federal Reserve independence, and potential "financial repression" have heightened the importance of gold and silver as tools to hedge against long-term policy uncertainty and inflation tail risks [3] - The silver market is projected to face a supply gap of approximately 95 million ounces in 2025, marking the fifth consecutive year of supply shortages, with a cumulative gap of nearly 820 million ounces from 2021 to 2025 [3]