期货研究院 格林大华期货研究院专题报告 大类资产配置专题报告 2025年9月1日 | 宏观金融 | 于军礼 | | --- | --- | | 研究员： | | | 从业资格证号： | F0247894 | | 交易咨询资格： | Z0000112 | | 联系邮箱： | yujunli@greendh.com | A股进入大牛市与10年周期律 从经济四周期配置大类资产9月篇 贸易、资本有望双顺差，离岸人民币汇率有望继续走强。 各项大类资产9月展望： 权益类资产：A股财富效应显现，居民部门储蓄资金向股市大迁移 ，外资跑步入场。持续的资金流入推动股市进入大牛市。 债券类资产：反内卷走出通缩，实际利率趋向于零。国债市场成为 股市上涨的弹药库，债券基金持续大规模赎回。 A股存在10年周期律，印证A股进入大牛市。 格林大华期货交易咨询业务资格： 反内卷大背景下，投资熄火，预期出口降速，消费将成为四季 度拉动经济增长的主要动力。 股市上行创造财富效应，提振居民部门消费能力。 居民部门储蓄资金向股市大迁移。 美联储放鸽9月降息，国际资金将从美股和美债大规模流出， 海外资金大潮涌向中国资产。外资跑步入场。 人工智能+行动发 ...

Group 1: AI and Technological Innovation - DeepSeek's launch marks a significant milestone in AI, enabling low-cost, large-scale, localized deployment, breaking the computational barriers set by the U.S.[10] - The cost of computational power is expected to decrease by 90% annually, leading to a global productivity surge and transformative impacts across industries[12]. - The 2025 private enterprise symposium signals a major push for AI technological innovation in China, emphasizing the importance of private enterprises in this sector[13]. Group 2: Market Trends and Asset Allocation - The Chinese equity market is undergoing a revaluation of AI technology assets, with significant inflows from global hedge funds into Chinese tech stocks, particularly in the Hong Kong and A-share markets[20]. - The global manufacturing PMI reached 50.1 in January, indicating an expansion phase, which is expected to boost demand for commodities[26]. - Gold is experiencing a physical shortage, with significant flows from London to New York, driven by geopolitical tensions and increasing demand from emerging markets[28]. Group 3: Economic Policies and Currency Dynamics - The U.S. has imposed a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum, with plans for similar tariffs on automobiles, initiating a global trade conflict[17]. - The Chinese yuan is expected to maintain a defensive stance around 7.35 to 7.40 against the dollar, with potential for appreciation as U.S. tariffs stabilize[32]. - Short-term government bond yields in China have risen from 0.90% to 1.50% over two months, reflecting market pressures and a shift in investment flows towards equities[31].