智通财经APP获悉，PMI调查显示，在工党政府即将公布预算案的前几周，10月英国企业几乎没有实现 任何增长，增税预期似乎打击了市场士气。此外，10月英国零售销售下滑幅度也远超预期。 PMI远低于预期，经济增长停滞 周五公布的初步数据显示，标普全球(S&P Global)采购经理人指数(PMI)从10月的52.2降至11月的50.5。 该数值仅略高于50的荣枯线(代表经济扩张)，且远低于经济学家预期的51.8。 "经济增长已陷入停滞，裁员速度加快，企业信心持续恶化，"标普全球市场情报首席商业经济学家克里 斯·威廉姆森(Chris Williamson)表示，"部分疲软态势被归咎于秋季预算案公布前企业暂停支出决策，但 这种暂停很可能演变为经济下行。" 这份报告进一步印证，英国财政大臣雷切尔·里夫斯(Rachel Reeves)将于11月26日公布的预算案已开始对 经济产生压力。里夫斯需填补数十亿英镑的公共财政缺口，以弥补成本高昂的政策逆转及上升的借贷成 本带来的影响。 标普表示，11月PMI数据意味着国内生产总值(GDP)实际上几乎没有变化，且英国经济第四季度增速可 能仅为0.1%。 通常作为经济增长核心驱动力的 ...

英国国家统计局周四数据显示，三季度国内生产总值环比增长0.1%，较二季度的0.3%显著放缓，且低 于经济学家及英国央行预期的0.2%。仅9月单月经济即收缩0.1%，服务业微弱增长被制造业大幅下滑所 抵消。 这些数据表明，在上半年领跑七国集团后，英国已回归低速增长轨道。从房地产市场到商业情绪调查， 多方证据显示消费者和企业因担忧英财政大臣里夫斯11月26日预算案可能大幅增税而推迟支出决策。 （文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经北京11月13日电英国三季度经济增长几近停滞，因增税担忧与捷豹路虎遭遇网络攻击拖累9月 经济活动，这给工党政府在11月26日关键预算案公布前带来更大压力。 ...

Core Insights - Germany's GDP stagnated in the third quarter, remaining unchanged from the second quarter [1] - Key sectors such as automotive and chemicals are experiencing weak demand, impacting industrial performance [1] - The labor market shows some stability despite economic stagnation, with a slight decrease in unemployment [1] Economic Performance - The third quarter GDP was flat compared to the second quarter, which was revised to a 0.2% decline [1] - The first quarter saw a 0.3% growth [1] - Equipment investment continued to grow in the third quarter, but exports declined [1] Sector Analysis - Weak demand in critical industries like automotive and chemicals is putting pressure on the industrial sector [1] - High tariffs from the U.S. are suppressing exports [1] - Consumer spending remains cautious, and the construction sector is struggling to recover [1] Future Outlook - Economists predict only modest growth for Germany's economy in 2025, with a potential recovery in 2026 due to government infrastructure and defense investment plans [1] - The German government forecasts a 1.3% growth in 2026, while the IMF estimates a 0.9% growth [1] Labor Market - The unemployment rate decreased by 0.1% to 6.2% in October, with the number of unemployed individuals dropping to 2.911 million [1] - Year-on-year, unemployment increased by 120,000 [1]

上海期货交易所指定交割仓库期货（10月20日）仓单日报显示，黄金期货总计84606千克，今日仓单较 上一日持平 由于缺乏劳动力和零售领域的最新数据，政策制定者在评估通胀放缓是否足以支持持续宽松时，可能只 能依赖不完整或过时的数据。周五的CPI发布很可能成为美联储下周决策前唯一清晰的数据参考。与此 同时，美联储官员已对劳动力市场疲软表示出日益加剧的担忧，这为降息提供了支持。但若CPI数据高 于预期，可能使前景复杂化，迫使美联储在通胀风险与经济增长停滞可能性之间艰难权衡。 上海期货交易所黄金期货仓单日报(单位：千克) | 上期所指定交割金库 | 期货 | 增减 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 84606 | 0 | 沪金主力盘内高位震荡，周一（10月20日）黄金期货开盘价989.70元/克，截至目前最高989.80元/克， 最低960.06元/克。截止发稿报970.32元/克，跌幅1.63%，成交量为728228手，持仓为207916手，日持仓 减少14276手。 ...

Economic Overview - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicates a mixed economic landscape, with only three out of twelve districts reporting growth, while four districts experienced outright softening [1][3] - The report highlights a growing list of headwinds affecting the economy, including tariffs, a slowing consumer, and a recent government shutdown, contributing to a "clouded mid-term outlook" [3][4] - Overall economic activity showed little change, with three districts reporting "slight to modest growth," five showing "no change," and four noting "slight softening" [3][6] Labor Market Conditions - Labor conditions remain mostly stable, but there are signs of strain, with five districts reporting unchanged job conditions and four indicating a worsening trend due to layoffs and attrition [4] - Employers are hesitant to hire amid weaker demand and rising costs, although sectors like healthcare and logistics continue to face challenges in filling skilled positions [4][5] Consumer Spending Trends - Consumer spending has declined, particularly among lower- and middle-income households, who are seeking discounts due to rising prices and economic uncertainty [5][6] - Higher-income households show more resilience, particularly in travel and leisure spending, but overall consumer psychology reflects caution and selectivity [5][8] - The sentiment analysis across the twelve districts shows more negative views on consumer spending than positive, indicating a tilt toward stagnation [7][9] General Sentiment and Outlook - The overarching theme of the Beige Book is one of equilibrium, characterized by stasis rather than strength, with economic activity changing little overall [10] - Both businesses and consumers share a sense of hesitation, with neither expecting a near-term rebound nor forecasting a collapse, suggesting a slow grind forward in the economy [8][10]

Economic Performance - In July, the UK economy showed no growth on a month-on-month basis, indicating a stagnation [1] - The service sector remains the main driver of economic growth, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1% in July, while construction grew by 0.2% [1] - Manufacturing, however, experienced a decline of 1.3% month-on-month in July [1] Growth Trends - Over the three months leading up to July, the UK economy grew by 0.2% on a month-on-month basis, a decrease from the previous value of 0.3% [1] - The economic growth rate has been slowing down, with a growth of 0.7% in the first quarter of the year, dropping to 0.3% in the second quarter [1] - Market institutions anticipate that the low growth state of the UK economy will continue [1] Fiscal Changes - Starting from April, the UK entered a new fiscal year, during which there were significant increases in the national insurance tax rate for business owners and the minimum wage [1] - These fiscal changes have dampened entrepreneurial enthusiasm [1] - Ongoing inflation has led to cautious consumer spending among UK residents, which has further limited the growth of the service sector [1]

Core Insights - The Hungarian economy is facing potential stagnation in Q2 due to the drag from industrial and agricultural sectors [1] Economic Performance - The economic growth in Hungary for the second quarter is expected to be close to a standstill [1] - The industrial and agricultural sectors are identified as the primary contributors to this slowdown [1]

Core Points - The new South Korean President Lee Jae-myung held his first cabinet meeting focusing on urgent economic measures to address stagnation [1] - Lee emphasized the need for the government to act quickly as the public is facing difficulties [1] - The meeting included mostly officials from the previous administration as Lee is in the process of forming a new cabinet [1]