编者荐语： 十五五"是中国式现代化承前启后的关键五年，其规划主线体现为经济增长逻辑的重构：产业政策从优 化传统产业转向"超常规"科技攻关，战略重心从重"量"转向求"质"。 以下文章来源于中国经济报告 ，作者赵伟 侯倩楠 中国经济报告 . 由国务院发展研究中心主管、中国经济年鉴社主办，是一份以经济政策分析、评论和深度调查为主要内 容的月刊。办刊宗旨是：深度经济分析、权威政策解读、高端政策评论、一流智库声音。 文 | 赵伟 侯倩楠 提 要 ： 十五五"是中国式现代化承前启后的关键五年，其规划主线体现为经济增长逻辑的重构：产 业政策从优化传统产业转向"超常规"科技攻关，战略重心从重"量"转向求"质"。同时，以 财税金融改革为核心的制度变革被置于突出位置，旨在破解财政约束，"向改革要增长"， 为实现2035年远景目标夯实根基。 关键词： 经济增长逻辑；财税金融改革；现代化产业体系 "十五五"时期是中国式现代化征程上承前启后的关键五年，其规划制定既关乎中期目标检 验，更决定长远发展战略的根基，《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规 划的建议》（以下简称《建议》）围绕三大规划主线，系统传递"十五五"期间中国经 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is a critical period for China's modernization, focusing on restructuring economic growth logic, shifting from optimizing traditional industries to "extraordinary" technological breakthroughs, and emphasizing fiscal and financial reforms to alleviate fiscal constraints and promote growth towards the 2035 vision [2][3]. Group 1: Key Tasks and Economic Context - The "15th Five-Year Plan" serves as a transitional phase, linking the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the 2035 modernization goals, requiring both strategic continuity and innovation [4]. - The plan addresses significant changes in the global landscape, domestic economic transformation, and the impact of a new technological revolution, which collectively shape the macro context for the plan [4][5]. Group 2: Economic Growth Baseline and Targets - To double the economic output by 2035 compared to 2020, the nominal GDP growth rate must average around 4% from 2025 to 2035, while per capita GDP must grow at approximately 3.9% [6][7]. - The plan sets ambitious targets for economic growth, reflecting a commitment to high-quality development and the integration of rapid economic growth with long-term stability [7]. Group 3: Industrial Policy and Technological Innovation - The plan prioritizes the transformation of traditional industries, emphasizing quality upgrades in sectors like mining, metallurgy, and chemicals to enhance global competitiveness [7][8]. - It outlines strategic emerging industries and future industries, including new energy, aerospace, and quantum technology, establishing a gradient development framework [7][8]. - Technological modernization is highlighted as a key support for China's modernization, with a focus on breakthroughs in critical core technologies across various sectors [8][9]. Group 4: Service Sector Development - The service sector is identified as having significant growth potential, with a notable gap in consumer spending compared to developed countries, indicating a potential market of nearly 3 trillion yuan [9]. - Systematic solutions for expanding domestic demand include increasing public service spending and enhancing the supply of quality consumer goods and services [9]. Group 5: Fiscal and Financial Reforms - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes reforms aimed at enhancing macroeconomic governance, with over 300 reform tasks to be completed by 2029 across various sectors [10][11]. - Key reform areas include market-oriented reforms, fostering new productive forces, and achieving green transitions, with a focus on establishing a unified national market [11][12]. - Financial reforms are crucial for improving local fiscal sustainability, addressing challenges in local government financing, and ensuring a clear division of responsibilities between central and local governments [12][13].