持续更新中 风险提示及免责条款 周五上午日本央行宣布加息25个基点，将无担保隔夜拆借利率上调至0.75%，创下1995年以来最高水 平，这次决议以9:0的结果获得全票通过。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 日本央行行长植田和男在随后的新闻发布会中表示，预计实际利率仍将维持在极低水平。 宽松的货币 环境将继续支撑经济。 如果经济展望实现，日本央行将加息。 经济展望实现的可能性正在上升。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The bloc has increased its growth expectations for the eurozone for the current year, indicating a more optimistic economic outlook, while tariffs are anticipated to negatively impact the forecast for 2026 [1] Group 1 - The eurozone's growth expectations have been raised for this year, reflecting improved economic conditions [1] - Tariffs are projected to have a detrimental effect on the economic outlook for 2026, suggesting potential challenges ahead [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, indicated that interest rates will be raised if economic projections are met [1] Group 1 - The statement reflects a potential shift in monetary policy by the Bank of Japan, signaling a response to economic conditions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain interest rates at 2% during its upcoming meeting, marking the first time in a year that rates will remain unchanged as the bank awaits clarity on the impact of U.S. tariffs on inflation [1][4] Interest Rate Decisions - The ECB plans to significantly lower borrowing costs by 200 basis points between June 2024 and June 2025, aiming to keep deposit rates within a range that neither suppresses nor stimulates the economy [4] - ECB officials are divided on future actions, with some advocating for further easing due to concerns that inflation may remain below the 2% target, while others warn that increased public spending could lead to higher prices in the future [4][7] Economic Outlook - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs, particularly President Trump's threat to impose a 30% tariff on the EU starting August 1, has increased risks of a worse-than-expected economic outcome [7] - The ECB's most severe trade scenario predicts a 20% tariff on all European goods, which could further depress inflation [7] Euro Strength - The euro has appreciated by 13% against the dollar this year, raising concerns among policymakers as it makes exports more expensive and lowers import costs [8] - ECB officials are cautious about the euro's strength, with potential implications for future interest rate decisions if the euro surpasses 1.20 against the dollar [8] Communication Challenges - The ECB's policy statement and President Lagarde's remarks are unlikely to change significantly, but the wording used to describe the decision to maintain rates could influence market expectations regarding future rate cuts [9][12] Official Changes - The July meeting marks the first for Olaf Sleijpen as a council member, succeeding Klaas Knot as the Dutch central bank governor, while the departure of hawkish figures like Austrian central bank governor Robert Holzmann may influence future policy discussions [13]

Core Viewpoint - The Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan, Shinichi Uchida, indicated that interest rates may be raised if the economic outlook is realized, highlighting the high level of uncertainty in both domestic and international economies [1] Group 1 - The current economic situation is at a critical juncture, necessitating preparedness for both upward and downward risks [1] - Policy adjustments are required to maximize the balance of risks in the economic landscape [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan is expected to provide an outlook on the impact of recent tariffs on the Japanese economy this month, but the tone will be less pessimistic compared to three months ago [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan is likely to address the economic effects of recent tariffs [1] - The outlook will reflect a more optimistic perspective than previously expressed [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's policy board member Takeda Soichi stated that it is difficult to determine the duration of the interest rate pause, indicating uncertainty in monetary policy direction [1] Economic Outlook - The economic outlook may be influenced by changes in tariff policies, suggesting that external trade factors could impact Japan's economic performance [1]