周四，三大股指均创历史最高收盘纪录。美国预测交易平台Kalshi显示，市场现在预计美国政府停摆将 持续近13天，高于昨天预测的9天。市场情绪正转向认为华盛顿的僵局将持续更长时间。 【美股】截至收盘，道指涨78.62点，涨幅为0.17%，报46519.72点；纳指涨88.89点，涨幅为0.39%，报 22844.05点；标普500指数涨4.15点，涨幅为0.06%，报6715.35点。英特尔(INTC.US)涨3.78%， AMD(AMD.US)涨3.5%、Circle(CRCL.US)涨16.05%、Coinbase(COIN.US)涨7.48%；特斯拉(TSLA.US)跌 5.11%。纳斯达克中国金龙指数收涨1.06%，阿里巴巴(BABA.US)涨3.59%、蔚来汽车(NIO.US)涨 3.14%。 【欧股】德国DAX30指数涨287.77点，涨幅1.19%，报24437.22点；英国富时100指数跌22.98点，跌幅 0.24%，报9423.45点；法国CAC40指数涨89.68点，涨幅1.13%，报8056.63点；欧洲斯托克50指数涨 66.24点，涨幅1.19%，报5647.45点；西班牙IBEX3 ...

（文章来源：第一财经） 据报道，澳洲联储主席布洛克表示，委员会认为风险总体平衡，经济处于良好状态，劳动力市场保持稳 健；近期数据表明，上行压力可能比8月份想象的要大；将视数据情况决定11月是降低利率还是维持现 状。 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is set to announce its interest rate decision and monetary policy statement at 18:00 GMT, followed by a press conference by Chairman Jerome Powell at 18:30 GMT [1] - A surprise 50 basis point rate cut could lead to significant selling pressure on the USD, while a 25 basis point cut with a dovish outlook could weaken the dollar [3] - Market participants will closely monitor Powell's comments regarding labor market and growth outlook, as concerns may negatively impact the USD, while inflation risks could support it [3] Group 2 - Deutsche Bank analysts predict that the updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) may indicate a total rate cut of 75 basis points by 2025, which is 25 basis points higher than the June forecast [3] - There may be differing opinions within the committee, with potential for three members advocating a 50 basis point cut, marking a significant divergence not seen since 1988 [3] - The short-term technical outlook for EUR/USD remains slightly bullish, with the RSI above 50 and trading above the 20-day and 50-day simple moving averages [4] Group 3 - EUR/USD may test resistance levels at 1.1900 and 1.2000, with the first resistance at 1.1830, while support is seen at 1.1680-1.1660 and subsequently at 1.1540 [5]

Core Insights - The inflation rate in the U.S. rose to 2.9% in August, highlighting the challenges faced by the Federal Reserve ahead of a significant interest rate decision [1] - The annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) exceeded July's rate of 2.7% and aligned with analyst expectations of 2.9% [1] - The core inflation rate remained stable at 3.1%, consistent with forecasts [1] Economic Context - The Federal Reserve is grappling with a weak labor market and political pressure from President Trump to lower interest rates [1] - Traders continue to anticipate a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week, with expectations for a slightly accelerated pace of cuts in subsequent meetings [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has indicated the possibility of a rate cut in September, suggesting that labor market weakness may mitigate the inflation risks associated with Trump's tariffs [1]

欧洲央行行长拉加德：今天的利率决定是一致通过的。 贸易协议将消除一些不确定性。 理事会成员对风险评估基本达成共识。 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde announced that today's interest rate decision was unanimously agreed upon by all members [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain interest rates at 2% during its upcoming meeting, marking the first time in a year that rates will remain unchanged as the bank awaits clarity on the impact of U.S. tariffs on inflation [1][4] Interest Rate Decisions - The ECB plans to significantly lower borrowing costs by 200 basis points between June 2024 and June 2025, aiming to keep deposit rates within a range that neither suppresses nor stimulates the economy [4] - ECB officials are divided on future actions, with some advocating for further easing due to concerns that inflation may remain below the 2% target, while others warn that increased public spending could lead to higher prices in the future [4][7] Economic Outlook - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs, particularly President Trump's threat to impose a 30% tariff on the EU starting August 1, has increased risks of a worse-than-expected economic outcome [7] - The ECB's most severe trade scenario predicts a 20% tariff on all European goods, which could further depress inflation [7] Euro Strength - The euro has appreciated by 13% against the dollar this year, raising concerns among policymakers as it makes exports more expensive and lowers import costs [8] - ECB officials are cautious about the euro's strength, with potential implications for future interest rate decisions if the euro surpasses 1.20 against the dollar [8] Communication Challenges - The ECB's policy statement and President Lagarde's remarks are unlikely to change significantly, but the wording used to describe the decision to maintain rates could influence market expectations regarding future rate cuts [9][12] Official Changes - The July meeting marks the first for Olaf Sleijpen as a council member, succeeding Klaas Knot as the Dutch central bank governor, while the departure of hawkish figures like Austrian central bank governor Robert Holzmann may influence future policy discussions [13]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia's Governor Bullock does not believe that the employment report will alter interest rate decisions [1] Group 1 - The employment report is not expected to influence the Reserve Bank's monetary policy [1] - Bullock's stance indicates a focus on broader economic indicators rather than just employment data [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia's Governor, Philip Lowe, indicated that fluctuations in monthly employment data will lead the committee to make similar interest rate decisions [1] Group 1 - Monthly employment data is subject to volatility, which influences the Reserve Bank's decision-making process regarding interest rates [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's FOMC statement indicates that all committee members unanimously agreed on the current interest rate decision, maintaining consistency with the previous meeting [1] Group 1 - The decision reflects a consensus among committee members, suggesting stability in monetary policy [1] - The interest rate remains unchanged, indicating a cautious approach to economic conditions [1]