欧洲央行行长拉加德：今天的利率决定是一致通过的。 贸易协议将消除一些不确定性。 理事会成员对风险评估基本达成共识。 ...

欧洲央行行长拉加德：今天的利率决定是全体一致通过的。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain interest rates at 2% during its upcoming meeting, marking the first time in a year that rates will remain unchanged as the bank awaits clarity on the impact of U.S. tariffs on inflation [1][4] Interest Rate Decisions - The ECB plans to significantly lower borrowing costs by 200 basis points between June 2024 and June 2025, aiming to keep deposit rates within a range that neither suppresses nor stimulates the economy [4] - ECB officials are divided on future actions, with some advocating for further easing due to concerns that inflation may remain below the 2% target, while others warn that increased public spending could lead to higher prices in the future [4][7] Economic Outlook - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs, particularly President Trump's threat to impose a 30% tariff on the EU starting August 1, has increased risks of a worse-than-expected economic outcome [7] - The ECB's most severe trade scenario predicts a 20% tariff on all European goods, which could further depress inflation [7] Euro Strength - The euro has appreciated by 13% against the dollar this year, raising concerns among policymakers as it makes exports more expensive and lowers import costs [8] - ECB officials are cautious about the euro's strength, with potential implications for future interest rate decisions if the euro surpasses 1.20 against the dollar [8] Communication Challenges - The ECB's policy statement and President Lagarde's remarks are unlikely to change significantly, but the wording used to describe the decision to maintain rates could influence market expectations regarding future rate cuts [9][12] Official Changes - The July meeting marks the first for Olaf Sleijpen as a council member, succeeding Klaas Knot as the Dutch central bank governor, while the departure of hawkish figures like Austrian central bank governor Robert Holzmann may influence future policy discussions [13]

澳洲联储主席Bullock：不认为就业报告会改变利率决定。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia's Governor, Philip Lowe, indicated that fluctuations in monthly employment data will lead the committee to make similar interest rate decisions [1] Group 1 - Monthly employment data is subject to volatility, which influences the Reserve Bank's decision-making process regarding interest rates [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's FOMC statement indicates that all committee members unanimously agreed on the current interest rate decision, maintaining consistency with the previous meeting [1] Group 1 - The decision reflects a consensus among committee members, suggesting stability in monetary policy [1] - The interest rate remains unchanged, indicating a cautious approach to economic conditions [1]

周一（6月9日）汇市简况：欧元兑美元吸引了一些逢低买盘，欧洲时段涨幅扩大至1.1450附近；受美元 走弱推动，英镑兑美元欧洲时段在1.3550上方获得牵引力；日元维持日内小幅涨幅，加之美元整体走 弱，拖累美元兑日元跌至144.20区域，或近一小时内的新日低；澳元兑美元小幅走高，收复了前一交易 日的失地；纽元兑美元收复了前一交易日的近期跌幅，亚洲时段在0.6040附近交投；美元兑加元回落前 一交易日涨幅，亚洲时段在1.3680附近交投。日内晚间22:00美国4月批发销售月率。 非美主要货币： 1.欧洲央行管委霍尔茨曼：对本周的利率决定持不同意见。目前的名义中性利率约为3%。 今日汇市要闻盘点： 美元： 1.美国5月新增非农就业人数略好于预期，前两月数据大幅下修；失业率稳定，平均时薪好于预期；美 联储降息押注减少。 2.美联储哈玛克：呼吁保持耐心，目前尚非采取先发制人措施的时机。 3.美联储理事鲍曼：美联储应该提议改变对大型银行的监管评级。银行监管机构将在不久的将来公布建 议，以完善提高补充杠杆率。 4.美联储传声筒：放大看，美国失业率其实在走高；对美联储而言，较慢的就业增长可能并不预示经济 疲软。 5.美联储任 ...

Group 1: US Economic Indicators - US non-farm payrolls in May slightly exceeded expectations, but previous two months' data were significantly revised downwards; unemployment rate remains stable, and average hourly earnings were better than expected; bets on Fed rate cuts have decreased [2] - Fed's Harker calls for patience, stating that it is not the time for preemptive measures [2] - Fed Governor Bowman suggests proposing changes to the regulatory ratings for large banks; regulatory agencies will soon announce proposals to enhance the supplementary leverage ratio [2] Group 2: European Central Bank (ECB) Insights - ECB Governing Council member Holzmann expresses differing opinions on this week's interest rate decision, stating that the current nominal neutral rate is around 3% [3] - ECB Governing Council member Vujcic indicates that the current round of rate cuts is nearing its end [4] - ECB Governing Council member Centeno states that interest rates will stabilize around 2% for the foreseeable future [5] Group 3: Other Central Bank Developments - New Zealand's Chief Economist Conway mentions that lower interest rates will promote economic growth in the second half of the year [4] - The Bank of Japan is reportedly considering slowing the pace of its bond purchase reduction [5] - Japanese Prime Minister Kishida states that Japan is gradually entering a phase of rising interest rates [5] - Bank of England member Green notes a short-term rebound in prices, but deflationary trends will continue [5] - ECB Governing Council member Escrivá suggests that the path for the benchmark interest rate may require slight adjustments [5]

欧洲央行行长拉加德：欧洲央行"几乎一致"通过了利率决定。一位成员未支持该决定。 （上次会议为 一致通过） ...

新华财经北京6月3日电欧盟统计局周二（3日）公布的数据显示，欧元区5月份通胀率降至1.9%，降幅超出预期， 低于欧洲央行 2%的目标。数据公布后，以德债为代表的欧债收益率全线下行，其中10年期德债收益率跌2.1BPs至 2.503%，10年期意债收益率跌1.6BP至3.495%，10年期法债收益率跌1.3BP至3.174%。 早在今年4月，欧洲央行就将其关键利率上调至2.25%，接近2023年中期创下的4%高点的一半。 但全球经济前景依然扑朔迷离。美国的保护主义关税计划给全球经济前景蒙上了阴影，所谓的"互惠"关税，也将 影响欧盟，它们对通胀的直接潜在影响尚不清楚，欧洲央行政策制定者和分析师指出，这可能取决于任何潜在的 对策。 | SYMBOL # | YIELD + | CHANGE $ | | --- | --- | --- | | GER 1-YR | 1.753 | -0.044 V | | GER 2-YR | 1.789 | -0.005 V | | GER 3-YR | 1.861 | -0.011 V | | GER 4-YR | 1.962 | -0.015 V | | GER 5-YR | ...