Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Employment trend in the US is weakening but may be emerging from the worst period. The non - farm payroll increase in December was lower than expected, but the unemployment rate and wage growth were better than expected. Some employment indicators in December showed a rebound [11][13]. - The expected Q1环比 rebound in the US economy is being realized. The US economic surprise index has rebounded recently, and the retail sales data in January is expected to show growth [14][16]. - Inflation expectations have significantly rebounded. Attention should be paid to the CPI data reading. The release of December CPI data is affected by government shutdown, and the geopolitical situation in Iran has affected oil prices and inflation expectations [17][19]. - Attention should be paid to the tariff policy framework changes brought by the IEEPA ruling. If the US Supreme Court rules IEEPA unconstitutional, it may involve a $150 billion tariff refund and cause short - term tariff policy chaos [20][23]. - In FICC precious metals, the gold - silver ratio is returning. Gold has regained momentum, and silver should be wary of fluctuations. Geopolitical risks have increased the upward drive of gold, while the conditions for silver to continue to rise are becoming more demanding [24][26]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fixed Income - **Overseas Fixed Income Weekly Performance** - Various US Treasury yields had different weekly changes. For example, the 3 - month US Treasury yield was 3.59% with a - 2.06bp change, and the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.53% with a 5.88bp change. Major developed country government bond yields also changed, such as the 10 - year German bond yield at 2.86% with a - 3.7bp change [41][42]. - **US Treasury Yield Curve and Credit Spread Tracking** - The US Treasury yield curve showed changes over 1 - month, 3 - month, and 6 - month periods, and the long - short spread of US Treasury yields was also tracked [49]. - **Relative Strength of Different - Rated Credit Bonds and Eurozone Bond Yields** - The relative strength of high - yield and Aaa - rated credit bonds was analyzed, along with the credit spreads between different - rated bonds [58][60]. - **US Treasury Issuance and Primary - Secondary Market Supply - Demand Indicators** - The issuance of US short - term Treasury bills, medium - and long - term Treasury bonds, and related subscription ratios were presented [71][73]. 2. Exchange Rate Market - **Global Major Exchange Rates Weekly Performance** - The US dollar index, euro, yen, and other major exchange rates had different weekly changes. For example, the US dollar index had a 0.72% change to 99.1330, and the euro had a - 0.70% change to 1.1637 [76][78]. - **Major Country Treasury Yield Spreads with US Treasuries** - The spreads between 10 - year US Treasuries and G7 countries' average yields, as well as the spreads between US and German 2 - year Treasury yields, were shown [79][80]. - **Evolution of China's Monetary Policy Framework** - China's "interest rate corridor" is formed with the 7 - day reverse repurchase in the inter - bank market as the "policy rate", SLF as the top, and the excess reserve ratio as the bottom. Traditional policy tools rely on MLF as the policy - guiding rate [88]. - **Monthly and High - Frequency Indicators of RMB Exchange Rate** - Monthly indicators include China's central bank gold and foreign exchange reserves, and high - frequency indicators include the spreads between Chinese and US 10 - year and 3 - month Treasury yields [93][101]. 3. Commodities - **Global Major Commodities Weekly Performance** - Various commodities such as Shanghai gold, Shanghai copper, and Brent crude oil had different weekly changes. For example, Shanghai gold had a 2.96% change, and Brent crude oil had a 4.09% change [119][121]. - **Commodity Ratios and Industry Chain Relative Strength** - Ratios such as the gold - silver ratio, gold - copper ratio, and their relationships with inflation expectations and US Treasury yield spreads were analyzed [123][124]. - **Commodity Price Mapping in Equity and Bond Markets** - The relative strength of commodities with global equity and bond indices, and the rolling correlation between upstream commodities and downstream equity cycle sectors were studied [131][134]. - **Macro Commodity High - Frequency Data** - Data such as OPEC+ crude oil production quotas, US energy department crude oil production, and global crude oil and copper inventories were presented [141][143]. 4. Overseas Equity - **Global Major Indices and US Stock Industry Weekly Performance** - Global major indices such as the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and their weekly changes were reported. In the US stock market, different sectors of the S&P index also had different weekly performances [146][150]. - **Weekly US Stock Style Performance, Valuation, and Earnings Tracking** - Different US stock style sectors such as US large - cap growth and US small - cap value had different weekly changes. Valuations and earnings (EPS) of major indices were also analyzed [153][157]. - **Earnings Cycle Positioning - Quarterly EPS YoY Trends of Major Indices** - The quarterly EPS YoY trends of indices such as the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Nikkei 225 were shown [164][165]. - **Volatility and Risk Sentiment Indicators** - Indicators such as the Chicago S&P Volatility VIX index, ICE Bond Volatility MOVE index, and CBOE option PUT/CALL ratio were presented [171][172]. 5. Cryptocurrency - **BTC, ETH, and Related Derivative Assets** - The relationships between Bitcoin, Ethereum, gold, and the US dollar, as well as the performance of major Bitcoin ETFs and their fund flows were studied [184][187]. 6. BOJ Post - YCC Era - **Yen Carry Trade System Market High - Frequency Data Tracking** - Data such as the net amount of Japanese investors' purchases of overseas bonds and stocks, USDJPY 1 - year exchange - rate hedging costs, and yen net positions of CFTC CME yen hedge funds and asset management institutions were presented [192][194]. 7. Macro Data Hologram and Fundamental High - Frequency Data - **Real - Time Economic Momentum** - Real - time GDP models, GDP components, and sector economic surprise indices of the US, as well as economic surprise indices of the US, Europe, and China were presented [202][206]. - **Financial Conditions** - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet and its weekly changes, G4 central banks' balance sheets as a percentage of GDP, and US and euro - area financial condition indices were analyzed [210][213]. - **Fiscal Policy** - US federal government fiscal expenditures and revenues, government debt issuance, and the government deficit as a percentage of GDP were studied [218][223]. - **Employment Market** - US employment market indicators such as non - farm payroll monthly increases, job vacancies, and weekly unemployment claims were tracked [227][228]. - **Inflation Indicators** - US inflation data was split, and trends of headline and core inflation, as well as inflation expectations, were analyzed [235][240]. - **Consumption Demand** - US consumption data such as retail sales, consumer confidence, personal income, and household debt were studied [244][259]. - **Cycle Positioning** - Industrial, manufacturing, and inventory cycle indicators, as well as US wholesale, retail, and manufacturing inventory and inventory - to - sales ratios were analyzed [267][277]. - **Credit Cycle** - US credit surveys, S&P index valuations, and high - yield corporate credit spreads were presented [280][282]. - **Transportation and Logistics** - Logistics data between China and the US, Asia and the US, Europe and the US, as well as aviation, supply - chain, and shipping data were studied [284][297]. - **Real Estate Market** - US real estate equity market, credit spreads, and commercial real estate data such as indices, loan amounts, and delinquency rates were presented [302][308]. - **Eurozone** - Eurozone macro - overview, cycle positioning, and relative strength data such as deficit rates, inflation, and economic surprise indices were analyzed [311][331].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The U.S. raid on Venezuela may increase crude oil volatility, but the overall expected impact is limited [11][12]. - U.S. weekly employment data has improved, and the economic surprise index has rebounded, leading to a rebound in U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar index [14][15][16]. - The short - term "theoretical dollar" has rebounded, and the dollar index is in an undervalued position compared to the model. The dollar is expected to strengthen in the short - term after the New Year, with a short - term target of 99 - 99.5 [31]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Week - to - Week Performance of Major Asset Classes and Market High - Frequency Data Fixed Income - U.S. Treasury yields of various maturities showed different weekly changes. For example, the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 6.3bp to 4.19% on January 2, 2026 [33][34]. - Major developed government bond yields also had weekly changes, such as the 10 - year German government bond yield increasing by 3.8bp to 2.90% [33][34]. Exchange Rate Market - The U.S. dollar index rose 0.46% to 98.4240 on January 2, 2026. Other major currencies had different weekly performances, like the euro falling 0.45% and the yen rising 0.17% [68][70]. Commodities - Global major commodities had different weekly changes. For example, Shanghai gold fell 3.66%, while Shanghai copper rose 2.23% [110][111][112]. Overseas Equities - Global major indices had different weekly performances. The S&P 500 index fell 1.06%, while the European Stoxx600 index rose 1.26% [137][138][139]. - S&P index sub - sectors also had different weekly performances. The S&P energy index rose 3.00%, while the S&P optional consumer index fell 3.60% [140][141][142]. 2. Weekly Key Macroeconomic Logic Tracking and Asset Views Weekly Overseas Macroeconomic Highlights - The U.S. raid on Venezuela may increase crude oil volatility. Venezuela's current crude oil exports are 960,000 barrels per day, and its exports to China account for over 60% [11][13]. - U.S. weekly initial jobless claims were lower than expected, and continuing jobless claims decreased. The economic surprise index and hard - data surprise index rebounded [14][15][16]. Weekly Currency Group Scoring - Through the currency group scoring model, in the G10 currency group, the Japanese yen, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar, and Norwegian krone had relatively high comprehensive scores, while the euro and British pound had low scores. In the Asian currency group, the New Taiwan dollar, Philippine peso, Thai baht, and Indian rupee had high scores, and the CNY and CNH had short - term score differentiation [28][29][30]. FICC Asset Views - **Dollar**: In the short - term, it is expected to strengthen, with a target of 99 - 99.5. In the long - term, it will maintain a wide - range oscillation, with an annual oscillation range of 96 - 108, and there is an upward risk [31]. - **Non - U.S. Exchange Rates**: In the short - term, based on scoring, different currencies have different performances. In the long - term, the Japanese yen spot exchange rate is significantly undervalued [31]. - **USD/CNH**: In the short - term, the RMB has a seasonal strengthening trend, but the appreciation space is limited. In the long - term, the RMB is undervalued in the exchange - rate valuation model, and the annual low is expected to be in the range of 6.85 - 6.95, with a high of 7.20 [31]. - **10 - Year U.S. Treasury Yield**: In the short - term, it challenges the 4.20% short - term resistance level. If it breaks through, it can reach 4.30 - 4.35% technically. In the long - term, the central level is around 4.20%, with an upward risk [31]. - **2 - Year U.S. Treasury Yield**: In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate. In the long - term, the support level is around 3.20%, and the target is 3.68%. There is a risk of a "bear steepening" of the yield curve in the second half of the year [31]. - **London Gold Spot**: The Venezuela incident may stimulate safe - haven sentiment, which is beneficial to gold. After the holiday, the gold - silver ratio may continue to repair upwards [31]. - **London Silver Spot**: It is expected to build an oscillation platform at a high level first, waiting for a 20% increase later. The target in the first quarter of 2026 is 90 - 100 US dollars per ounce [31]. 3. Macroeconomic Data Hologram and Fundamental High - Frequency Data Real - Time Economic Momentum - It includes real - time GDP models, GDP sub - items, and sector economic surprise indices of the U.S., as well as economic surprise indices of the U.S., Europe, and China [192][196]. Financial Conditions - It involves the central bank's balance sheet and financial conditions index, including the Fed's balance sheet, G4 central banks' balance - sheet - to - GDP ratios, and financial conditions indices of the U.S. and the eurozone [200][203]. Fiscal Policy - It includes U.S. federal government fiscal expenditure and revenue sub - items, government debt issuance, and the government deficit - to - GDP ratio [208][213]. Employment Market - It tracks U.S. employment market data on a weekly and monthly basis, including non - farm payrolls, job vacancies, and unemployment claims [216][220]. Inflation Indicators - It analyzes U.S. inflation data, including inflation breakdown, core drivers, and inflation expectations [224][226][229]. Consumer Demand - It tracks U.S. consumer data on a weekly and monthly basis, including retail sales, consumer confidence, personal income, and household debt [233][240][247]. Cycle Positioning - It tracks industrial, manufacturing, and inventory cycle indicators, as well as U.S. wholesale, retail, and manufacturing inventories and inventory - to - sales ratios [255][264]. Credit Cycle - It tracks U.S. credit conditions, including corporate credit surveys and high - yield corporate credit spreads [268][270]. Transportation and Logistics - It tracks logistics data between China and the U.S., Europe and the U.S., as well as aviation, supply - chain indices, trucks, and shipping [272][277][279]. Real Estate Market - It includes the U.S. real - estate equity market, credit spreads, and commercial real - estate market data [287][292]. Eurozone - It includes macro - overviews, cycle positioning, and relative - strength analysis of the eurozone, such as deficit rates, inflation, and PMI indicators [297][305][314].

Group 1 - The Nikkei average stock index has recently surged, surpassing the 40,000 mark, supported by a sense of reassurance from China's unexpectedly stable economy [1] - The Citi Economic Surprise Index indicates that as of June 26, China's index stands at +25.7, significantly higher than Japan's +12.8 and the United States' -5.3, suggesting that China's economic performance is exceeding expectations [4] - Japanese stocks related to China have shown significant gains, with companies like Tokyo Precision reaching an 11-month high, driven by demand in the semiconductor manufacturing sector [3] Group 2 - Analysts believe that the concerns regarding downward revisions in earnings forecasts for the April to June financial reports are unlikely to materialize, indicating a positive outlook for sectors such as machinery, high-tech, and automotive [3] - The Chinese government's economic stimulus measures, including subsidies for machinery upgrades and consumer goods, are expected to support Japan's stock market [4] - The "Credit Impulse" indicator, which reflects the growth rate of new loans relative to China's nominal GDP, has rebounded significantly after hitting a decade-low, suggesting increased production and investment activity [5]