国泰君安期货研究所· 海 外 研 究 联系人 杨藤 F03151619 国泰君安期货·君研海外 海外宏观及大类资产周度报告 戴璐 Z0021475 刘雨萱 Z0020476 日期：2026年1月11日 • 周度海外宏观要点：就业趋势走弱，但或走出 最差时段 兑现 • 周度海外宏观要点：通胀预期显著反弹，关注 CPI数据读数 • 周度海外宏观要点：关注IEEPA裁决带来关税政 策框架变化 • FICC贵金属：金银比回归——黄金重获动能， 白银警惕波动 • 周度海外宏观要点：More Charts of the Week Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures CONTENTS 01 02 03 大类资产周度表现及市场高频数据 周度重点宏观逻辑追踪及资产观点 • 固定收益 – 海外固收周度表现 • 汇率市场 – 主要汇率周度表现 • 汇率市场 – 中国货币政策框架演进 • 汇率市场 – 人民币汇率月频指标 • 汇率市场 – 人民币汇率高频指标 • 大 ...

国泰君安期货研究所· 海 外 研 究 联系人 杨藤 F03151619 国泰君安期货·君研海外 海外宏观及大类资产周度报告 戴璐 Z0021475 刘雨萱 Z0020476 日期：2026年1月4日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures CONTENTS 01 02 03 大类资产周度表现及市场高频数据 周度重点宏观逻辑追踪及资产观点 • 固定收益 – 海外固收周度表现 • 汇率市场 – 主要汇率周度表现 • 汇率市场 – 中国货币政策框架演进 • 汇率市场 – 人民币汇率月频指标 • 汇率市场 – 人民币汇率高频指标 • 大宗商品 – 主要大宗商品周度表现 宏观数据全息图及基本面高频数据 • 海外权益 – 波动率与风险情绪指标 2 • 周度海外宏观要点：美国突袭委内瑞拉，原油 波动率或提升 济惊喜指数反弹 • 周度海外宏观要点：More Charts of the Week • 周度货币组评分：基于波动率调整后的风险逆 转指数+Carry变化 ...

Group 1 - The Nikkei average stock index has recently surged, surpassing the 40,000 mark, supported by a sense of reassurance from China's unexpectedly stable economy [1] - The Citi Economic Surprise Index indicates that as of June 26, China's index stands at +25.7, significantly higher than Japan's +12.8 and the United States' -5.3, suggesting that China's economic performance is exceeding expectations [4] - Japanese stocks related to China have shown significant gains, with companies like Tokyo Precision reaching an 11-month high, driven by demand in the semiconductor manufacturing sector [3] Group 2 - Analysts believe that the concerns regarding downward revisions in earnings forecasts for the April to June financial reports are unlikely to materialize, indicating a positive outlook for sectors such as machinery, high-tech, and automotive [3] - The Chinese government's economic stimulus measures, including subsidies for machinery upgrades and consumer goods, are expected to support Japan's stock market [4] - The "Credit Impulse" indicator, which reflects the growth rate of new loans relative to China's nominal GDP, has rebounded significantly after hitting a decade-low, suggesting increased production and investment activity [5]