12月12日，央行发布最新数据，M2和社会融资规模增速均保持在较高水平，持续为经济回升向好创造 适宜的货币金融环境。 具体来看，11月末，广义货币（M2）余额336.99万亿元，同比增长8.0%，比上年同期高0.9个百分点， 在上年同期基数提高的背景下，仍保持较高增速；社会融资规模存量440.07万亿元，同比增长8.5%，比 上年同期高0.7个百分点；1-11月，社会融资规模增量为33.39万亿元，同比多3.99万亿元。 业内专家表示，今年以来，宏观政策加大逆周期调节力度，对提振内需、稳定经济发挥了积极作用，也 为金融总量合理增长提供了支撑。今年新增政府债务总规模11.86万亿元，比去年增加2.9万亿元，普通 国债、特别国债和地方政府专项债额度都明显增加，相应带动政府债券在社会融资规模中占比提升。 除政府债券外，企业债券、股权融资等其他直接融资渠道也在加快发展。今年1-11月，社会融资规模中 企业债券融资2.24万亿元，比去年同期多3125亿元；非金融企业境内股票融资4204亿元，比去年同期多 1788亿元。 业内专家表示，积极发展股权、债券等直接融资，是"十五五"规划建议锚定加快建设金融强国目标作出 的明确 ...

Macro Overview - The U.S. labor market shows signs of fatigue, with non-farm employment growth nearly stagnating over the past two months, which historically indicates economic distress or the need for intervention [4] - Despite the weak labor data, the probability of a recession remains manageable, with the New York Fed predicting a 28.71% chance of recession in the next 12 months [4] - The U.S. economy is experiencing a slowdown in consumption and investment due to high interest rates and uncertainty in tariff policies, although the overall economic resilience was strong in the first half of the year with a GDP growth rate of 5.3% [4] Domestic Policy Insights - The current policy focus is on observing the economic conditions in consumption, exports, and real estate, with a shift towards long-term mechanisms for sustainable economic development [4] - The government is expected to prioritize high-quality economic development and establish long-term sustainable growth mechanisms during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [4] - If GDP growth falls below 4.7% in the third quarter, there may be considerations for additional policy measures [4] Market Strategy and Asset Allocation - The A-share market is expected to experience a slow upward trend, supported by strong economic fundamentals and high market activity, although valuation recovery may slow down [4] - The focus for investment should be on long-term allocations in sectors such as banking, dividends, and broad-based indices, with a cautious approach to chasing high valuations [4] - The market is witnessing a structural rotation with opportunities in themes like technology (AI, computing power, chips), military, pharmaceuticals, stablecoins, rare earths, and cyclical sectors [4] Asset Class Outlook - A-shares are viewed as relatively optimistic, while Hong Kong stocks and U.S. stocks maintain a neutral stance [6] - Credit bonds and convertible bonds are also seen as relatively optimistic, indicating a favorable outlook for fixed-income investments [6] - The outlook for commodities like oil remains cautious, reflecting ongoing uncertainties in the global market [6]