回顾2025年： AI引领、流动性新特征 驱动结构性分化行情 2025年全球主要市场的涨幅与AI算力进展呈现出显著正相关。AI 发展最为领先的美股市场表现最佳； 亚太市场中的韩国与日本也因AI相关产业活跃而涨幅居前。与此同时，AI云业务占比较高的恒生科技 指数也获得了内外资金的积极配置。在流动性方面，险资、被动基金及高净值个人投资者的共同参与 推动了市场资金面走强。受流动性改善支撑，A股微盘股及银行板块持续表现强势。值得关注的是， 本轮市场的增量流动性主要来自被动基金，这与过去两轮牛市有明显区别：2014-2015年主要由杠杆资 金驱动，2019-2021年则更多依赖主题/主动基金入市。 展望2026年A股：三大分化趋势 ——行业分化、盈亏分化、内外需分化 我们预计2026年A股基本面结构分化将进入下半场，A股将继续呈现三大分化趋势：（1）行业分化， 科创板块的利润贡献将持续挤占金融地产的份额；（2）盈亏分化，尽管全A 利润增长，但超过半数 公司的利润增速可能下滑；（3）内外需分化，海外营收占比较高的企业（超20%）其净利润贡献已超 过25%。这些分化意味着，由科技创新驱动的经济转型、上市公司经营的头部集中化 ...

Core Insights - The futures market in China has seen a significant increase in accumulated funds, surpassing 1 trillion yuan, driven by rising demand for risk management and asset allocation from real enterprises [1][2] Group 1: Market Overview - As of January 22, the total accumulated funds in the futures market reached 10,389.55 billion yuan, with financial futures contributing 4,313 billion yuan, marking a historical high [1] - The accumulated funds in commodity futures reached 6,077 billion yuan, reflecting an increase of 9.2 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] - Notable individual futures with high net inflows include silver, lithium carbonate, and PTA futures, each exceeding 1 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Drivers of Growth - The increase in accumulated funds is attributed to heightened risk management needs among industrial enterprises due to global commodity price volatility [2] - The expansion of the futures product system has provided more options for various market participants, enhancing the demand for commodity assets [2] - The structure of market participants is continuously optimizing, with an accelerated institutionalization process increasing the allocation demand for commodity assets [2] Group 3: Future Trends - Analysts predict that the commodity futures market will continue to experience structural differentiation, with investment opportunities arising from supply-demand adjustments, industrial policies, and enhanced financial attributes [3] - The introduction of new products, such as coking coal options, is expected to attract additional capital into the market [3] - The futures market is anticipated to maintain its trend of product expansion, focusing on strategic development and filling gaps in tools, particularly in green and new energy metals [3]