Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tianshan Aluminum (002532.SZ) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company demonstrated strong performance in Q3 2025, with a year-on-year revenue increase of 7.34% to 22.32 billion yuan and a net profit increase of 8.31% to 3.34 billion yuan. The Q3 revenue was 6.99 billion yuan, slightly down by 0.35% year-on-year and 5.53% quarter-on-quarter, while net profit rose by 24.30% year-on-year and 22.41% quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to rising aluminum prices and lower electricity costs [4][5] - The company is expected to perform even better in Q4 2025, with continued high aluminum prices and decreasing bauxite costs. The profit forecasts for 2025 to 2027 have been raised, with expected net profits of 4.845 billion, 5.905 billion, and 6.962 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 8.7%, 21.9%, and 17.9% [4][5] - The company is advancing its 1.4 million tons of electrolytic aluminum capacity green low-carbon efficiency improvement project, with the first batch of aluminum ingots expected to be produced by December 2025 [5] - The company has implemented a share buyback plan, repurchasing 23.71 million shares, which is 0.51% of its total share capital. Additionally, it plans to distribute cash dividends of no less than 50% of the annual net profit [6] Financial Summary - For 2025, the company is projected to achieve a revenue of 29.169 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.8%. The net profit is expected to be 4.845 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.7% increase. The EPS for 2025 is estimated at 1.04 yuan per share, with a corresponding P/E ratio of 12.4 times [8][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tianshan Aluminum [3] Core Views - The company is implementing a 1.4 million ton electrolytic aluminum energy efficiency improvement plan, which is expected to enhance its production capacity and long-term cost advantages [6] - The projected earnings per share for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 1.17, 1.37, and 1.58 yuan respectively, with a target price of 9.36 yuan based on an 8x PE valuation for 2025 [2][3] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue is forecasted to decline from 28,975 million yuan in 2023 to 28,089 million yuan in 2024, before increasing to 35,501 million yuan in 2025, representing a growth of 26.4% [2][8] - Operating profit is expected to rise significantly from 2,642 million yuan in 2023 to 5,219 million yuan in 2024, and further to 6,096 million yuan in 2025, indicating a year-on-year growth of 97.6% [2][8] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to increase from 2,205 million yuan in 2023 to 4,455 million yuan in 2024, and to 5,426 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth of 102.0% [2][8] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 14.1% in 2023 to 23.3% in 2024, and stabilize around 21.5% to 23.6% in the following years [2][8] Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company is positioned as a leading player in the electrolytic aluminum industry, benefiting from a significant reduction in energy costs due to falling coal prices [6] - The implementation of advanced energy-saving technologies in the production process is expected to further reduce production costs and enhance operational efficiency [6] - The company has demonstrated strong cash flow generation capabilities, which supports stable dividend distributions [6]