编号：2025015 | | ●特定对象调研 □分析师会议 | | --- | --- | | 投资者关 | □媒体采访 □业绩说明会 | | 系活动类 | □新闻发布会 □路演活动 | | 别 | □现场参观 | | | □其他（请文字说明其他活动内容） | | | 长城证券：花江月 | | 参与单位 | 招商证券：袁定云 | | 名称及人 | 陆家嘴国泰人寿：刘尚 | | 员姓名 | 东方财富证券：梅宇鑫 | | | 方正证券：杨宇禄 | | 时间 | 年 月 日 2025 11 26 | | 地点 | 三维化学公司总部 | | 上市公司 | 董事会秘书：张军先生 | | 接待人员 | 证券事务代表：刘财先生 | | 姓名 | | | | 一、公司2025年前三季度经营业绩介绍 | | 投资者关 | 公司2025年前三季度生产经营实现稳健发展。2025年前三季度， | | 系活动主 | 公司合计实现营业收入人民币194,100.37万元，同比增长14.63%； | | 要内容介 | 实现归属上市公司股东的净利润人民币15,345.82万元，同比增长 | | 绍 | 5.14%。具体情况可查阅公司于2025 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the organic silicon industry, highlighting its potential benefits from the chemical sector's internal competition [4]. Core Viewpoints - The chemical sector experienced a decline of 7.47% in the third week of November, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.58 percentage points [13]. - The only sub-industry that saw an increase was petroleum processing, which rose by 2.64%, while 31 sub-industries declined, with the largest drop in acrylic fiber at -15.33% [17]. - Key products with significant price increases included dimethyl carbonate (+12.32%) and thionyl chloride (+11.39%), while liquid chlorine saw the largest decrease at -6.25% [22][3]. - The report suggests focusing on leading companies that benefit from the chemical sector's internal competition, such as Xin'an Chemical, Xingfa Group, and Baofeng Energy [4]. Industry Performance - The chemical sector's dynamic PE ratio stands at 23.78, significantly higher than the average PE of 5.33 since 2015 [13]. - The total number of stocks in the industry is 446, with a total market value of 7114.2 billion and a circulating market value of 6648.5 billion [5]. Price and Spread Trends - The report lists the top five products with the highest price increases and decreases, indicating significant volatility in the market [22][3]. - The price spread for propylene (methanol-based) increased by 296.55%, while the PTA spread decreased by 157.04% [42][46]. Inventory Changes - Notable inventory changes include a decrease in stocks of chlorpyrifos (-12.5%) and propylene oxide (-11.83%), while polyester filament saw an increase of 10.21% [66].

Domestic Macro - On November 14, Premier Li Qiang chaired a State Council executive meeting to discuss the implementation of the "two重" construction and measures to enhance the adaptability of supply and demand for consumer goods [5][8] - On November 17, Vice Premier He Lifeng co-hosted the fourth high-level financial dialogue between China and Germany, welcoming qualified companies listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges to issue Global Depositary Receipts (GDRs) in Frankfurt [5][19] - On November 18, Premier Li Qiang emphasized at the SCO meeting that increasing tariffs and trade barriers severely impact international trade order, calling for embracing free trade and reducing barriers [5][19] Industry Policy - On November 14, the People's Bank of China released the "Interbank Market Brokerage Business Management Measures," effective from January 1, 2026, clarifying the scope of brokerage services [9][21] - On November 15, the State Administration for Market Regulation published a draft for public consultation on "Antitrust Compliance Guidelines for Internet Platforms," aiming to prevent abuse of market dominance [9][21] - On November 17, the Ministry of Commerce initiated a final review investigation of anti-dumping and countervailing measures on imported isopropanol from the U.S., continuing to impose anti-dumping duties of 254.4%-267.4% and countervailing duties of 34.2%-37.7% during the investigation [9][21] Local Policy - On November 15, Jiangsu Province raised the subsidy standard for automobile consumption renewal, with a maximum subsidy of 10,000 yuan [10][23] - On November 18, Beijing introduced a financial support plan to boost and expand consumption, particularly in the new energy vehicle sector [10][23] - On November 20, the Guangdong Provincial Government issued a plan for the construction of a national digital economy innovation development pilot zone, aiming for the digital economy's core industry value-added to exceed 16% of GDP by 2027 [10][23] Overseas Dynamics - On November 14, China and Switzerland held the third round of negotiations to upgrade their free trade agreement, making progress on various trade-related topics [11][25] - On November 18, U.S. President Trump signed an executive order adjusting the application scope of "reciprocal tariffs," excluding certain agricultural products from additional tariffs [11][25] - On November 19, the U.S. and Saudi Arabia signed a strategic partnership agreement on artificial intelligence, with investments amounting to $270 billion [11][25]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "stronger than market" rating for the chemical sector [5]. Core Insights - The merger between AkzoNobel and Sherwin-Williams is expected to create a leading global paint company with annual revenues of $17 billion (approximately 120.9 billion RMB) [3]. - The Ministry of Commerce continues to impose anti-dumping duties on imported propanol from the U.S., with rates ranging from 254.4% to 267.4% [3]. - The domestic tire industry shows strong competitiveness, with scarce growth targets worth attention, including Sailun Tire, Senqilin, General Shares, and Linglong Tire [4]. - The consumer electronics sector is anticipated to gradually recover, benefiting upstream material companies, with recommendations to focus on companies like Dongcai Technology and Stik [4]. - The phosphorous chemical sector is highlighted for its resilience due to supply constraints and increasing demand from the new energy sector, with suggested companies including Yuntianhua and Chuanheng Shares [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of leading companies in the chemical industry benefiting from economic recovery and demand resurgence, recommending companies like Wanhua Chemical and Hualu Hengsheng [4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 3.9%, the ChiNext Index by 6.15%, and the CSI 300 by 3.77%, while the CITIC Basic Chemical Index dropped by 8.24% [14]. - The top five performing sub-industries in the chemical sector were rubber additives (1.75%), potassium fertilizer (-1.21%), tires (-2.84%), modified plastics (-4.32%), and membrane materials (-5.19%) [17]. Major Industry Dynamics - The merger between AkzoNobel and Sherwin-Williams is set to create a company with a business scope covering various paint solutions and an expected annual revenue of $17 billion [3]. - The Ministry of Commerce's anti-dumping measures on U.S. propanol will continue, affecting pricing and supply dynamics in the market [3]. Investment Themes - The tire sector is highlighted for its competitive domestic enterprises, with specific companies recommended for investment [4]. - The consumer electronics sector is expected to recover, with upstream material companies poised to benefit [4]. - The phosphorous chemical sector is noted for its tightening supply-demand balance, with several companies recommended for attention [4]. - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the chemical industry that are likely to benefit from economic recovery and demand resurgence [4].

Report Summary 1. Hot News - This year from January to October, China's national fiscal revenue was 18.65 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%. In October alone, the national fiscal revenue was 2.26 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%. From January to October, national fiscal expenditure was 2.258 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2% [2] - Since November 18, the Ministry of Commerce has initiated a final review investigation into the anti - dumping and counter -vailing measures on imported n - propanol originating from the United States. During the investigation period, anti - dumping duties of 254.4% - 267.4% and counter -vailing duties of 34.2% - 37.7% will continue to be imposed [2] - On November 18, the actual controllers of multiple silicone companies will gather in Shanghai to discuss "anti - involution". The industry has reached a preliminary consensus on details such as production reduction targets and time, and relevant details are expected to be finalized at this meeting [2] - The European Commission stated that the eurozone economy may expand faster than expected this year and reach or exceed the potential growth rate in 2026 and 2027. However, due to defense spending, debt and deficits will also rise. It is expected that the eurozone GDP will grow by 1.3% this year, higher than the 0.9% forecast in April [2] - India signed its first long - term contract to purchase liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) from the United States. In 2026, Indian state - owned oil companies will import about 2.2 million tons of LPG from the United States, accounting for about 10% of India's annual imports [2] 2. Key Focus - Key commodities to focus on include urea, lithium carbonate, coking coal, polysilicon, and asphalt [3] 3. Night - session Performance - In the night - session of commodity futures, the non - metallic building materials sector rose 3.30%, the precious metals sector rose 28.87%, the oilseeds and oils sector rose 9.94%, the non - ferrous metals sector rose 23.66%, the soft commodities sector rose 2.60%, the coal, coke, steel and ore sector rose 12.58%, the energy sector rose 2.87%, the chemical sector rose 11.02%, the grains sector rose 1.18%, and the agricultural and sideline products sector rose 3.98% [3] 4. Sector Positions - The chart shows the changes in the positions of commodity futures sectors in the past five days [4] 5. Performance of Major Asset Classes | Category | Name | Daily Return (%) | Monthly Return (%) | Year - to - Date Return (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Equity | Shanghai Composite Index | - 0.46 | 0.44 | 18.51 | | | SSE 50 | - 0.87 | 0.02 | 12.19 | | | CSI 300 | - 0.65 | - 0.92 | 16.85 | | | CSI 500 | - 0.00 | - 1.30 | 26.37 | | | S&P 500 | - 0.92 | - 2.45 | 13.44 | | | Hang Seng Index | - 0.71 | 1.84 | 31.53 | | | German DAX | - 1.20 | - 1.54 | 18.49 | | | Nikkei 225 | - 0.10 | - 3.98 | 26.14 | | | FTSE 100 | - 0.24 | - 0.43 | 18.38 | | Fixed - income | 10 - year Treasury Bond Futures | 0.09 | - 0.18 | - 0.40 | | | 5 - year Treasury Bond Futures | 0.05 | - 0.15 | - 0.60 | | | 2 - year Treasury Bond Futures | 0.03 | - 0.06 | - 0.48 | | Commodity | CRB Commodity Index | - 0.23 | - 0.30 | 1.66 | | | WTI Crude Oil | - 0.70 | - 1.97 | - 17.03 | | | London Spot Gold | - 0.92 | 1.04 | 54.13 | | | LME Copper | - 0.79 | - 1.15 | 22.60 | | | Wind Commodity Index | - 3.38 | - 1.50 | 28.67 | | Other | US Dollar Index | 0.25 | - 0.20 | - 8.25 | | | CBOE Volatility Index | 0.00 | 13.70 | 14.29 | [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - China stocks are recommended to be overweighted, US stocks to be standard - weighted, and Chinese bonds to be under - weighted [23] 2. Core Views - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of macro - data, commodity investments, financial news, and the stock market. It points out trends in various economic indicators, potential impacts on different industries, and offers investment suggestions based on market conditions [1][2][11][23] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data - In Q3 2025, GDP growth was 4.8%, lower than the previous quarter's 5.2% but higher than the same period last year [1] - In October 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49%, down from 49.8% in the previous month and 50.1% in the same period last year [1] - In October 2025, the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, slightly up from 50% in the previous month but down from 50.2% in the same period last year [1] - In October 2025, the social financing scale increment was 816.1 billion yuan, significantly lower than 3.5299 trillion yuan in the previous month but higher than 1.412 trillion yuan in the same period last year [1] - In October 2025, M0, M1, and M2 growth rates were 10.6%, 6.2%, and 8.2% respectively, showing different trends compared to the previous month and the same period last year [1] - In October 2025, new RMB loans were 220 billion yuan, much lower than 1.29 trillion yuan in the previous month and 500 billion yuan in the same period last year [1] - In October 2025, CPI was 0.2% year - on - year, up from - 0.3% in the previous month but down from 0.3% in the same period last year; PPI was - 2.1% year - on - year, an improvement from - 2.3% in the previous month and - 2.9% in the same period last year [1] - As of October 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was - 1.7%, down from - 0.5% in the previous month and 3.4% in the same period last year [1] - As of October 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of social consumer goods retail sales was 4.28%, slightly down from 4.5% in the previous month but up from 3.5% in the same period last year [1] - In October 2025, export value decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, a sharp decline from 8.3% in the previous month and 12.64% in the same period last year; import value increased by 1.0% year - on - year, down from 7.4% in the previous month but an improvement from - 2.38% in the same period last year [1] 3.2 Commodity Investment 3.2.1 Comprehensive - Since November 18, the Ministry of Commerce has launched a final review of anti - dumping and counter -vailing measures on n - propanol imported from the US, with existing tax rates remaining in effect [2] - In October, the bank settlement and sales surplus was 17.7 billion US dollars, narrowing month - on - month. Cross - border funds showed a net inflow in October, with an average monthly surplus of 24 billion US dollars in September and October [2] - From January to October, national fiscal revenue was 18.65 trillion yuan, up 0.8% year - on - year; in October, it was 2.26 trillion yuan, up 3.2% year - on - year. National fiscal expenditure from January to October was 22.58 trillion yuan, up 2% year - on - year [2] 3.2.2 Metals - Sanctions on Russian oil companies may have a long - term negative impact on Russian oil sales [3] - LME may permanently restrict large near - month positions, potentially reshaping the metal trading logic [3] - As of November 17, the gold holdings of SPDR Gold Trust decreased by 2.57 tons to 1041.43 tons, a 0.25% decline [3] - On November 17, silver inventory decreased to a nearly 10 - year low, while copper inventory reached a five - month high [3] - Indonesia plans to impose a 7.5% - 15% export tax on gold products [4] 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - On November 17, the inventory of rebar reached a three - month low [5] - As of early November, the prices of coking coal and coke increased by 4.81% and 4.1% respectively, reaching new highs [6] 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have different outlooks on the 2026 Brent crude oil price, with potential supply surpluses [7] - India has signed a large - scale LPG import agreement with the US [7] - The demand for lithium carbonate is expected to grow in 2026, with price increases possible under certain conditions [7] - The Black Sea port of Novorossiysk in Russia has suspended oil exports due to drone attacks [7] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - Egypt's local wheat procurement in 2025 increased by 17% year - on - year, with a plan to increase it in 2026 [8] - India may resume wheat product exports due to sufficient domestic supply [8] - The US soybean crushing volume in October reached a record high [8] - Over 80% of winter wheat has been sown in China [8] - As of early November, the prices of soybean meal and wheat increased, reaching new highs [9] 3.3 Financial News 3.3.1 Open Market - On November 17, the central bank conducted 283 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 163.1 billion yuan [10] 3.3.2 Key News - China has protested against Japan's wrong remarks on Taiwan [11] - China and Germany have promoted financial cooperation [11] - Fiscal revenue and expenditure data from January to October show growth trends [11] - The bank settlement and sales surplus in October narrowed month - on - month, with cross - border funds showing a net inflow [12] - The real estate market shows a stabilizing trend, with an increase in second - hand housing transactions [13] - As of the end of October, overseas institutions held 3.73 trillion yuan of inter - bank market bonds [13] - The operating loan market has seen intense competition, with many banks lowering interest rates [13] - The bond investment plan business of insurance asset management institutions has declined [13] - Amazon plans to raise 15 billion US dollars through bond issuance [13] - AI stocks have experienced a sell - off, and the AI bond market has emerged [14] - The demand for credit default swaps on technology companies has increased [14] - Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts [15] - Japanese long - term government bonds have declined [15] - There are various bond - related events, including management changes and debt arrangements [16] - Some companies' credit ratings have been adjusted [16] 3.3.3 Bond Market Review - The Chinese bond market performed strongly, with most interest - rate bond yields declining slightly, and treasury bond futures rising [17] - The exchange - traded bond market had mixed performance, with some bonds rising and others falling [18] - The convertible bond index declined, with some individual bonds showing significant changes [18] - Most money market interest rates increased [19] - The yields of European and US government bonds showed different trends [20][21] 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar depreciated slightly, while the central parity rate appreciated [22] - The US dollar index rose, and most non - US currencies depreciated [22] 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Different research institutions have provided investment suggestions on stocks, bonds, and the RMB exchange rate [23][24] 3.4 Stock Market - The A - share market was weak, with lithium mining, Fujian - related, and military stocks rising, while pharmaceutical and photovoltaic stocks falling [26] - The Hong Kong stock market declined, with some sectors showing significant losses [27] - Morgan Stanley expects a moderate increase in the Chinese stock market in 2026 [27] - Since November, overseas institutions have mainly surveyed electronics and machinery companies, and the electronics industry is showing good momentum [27]

Company Developments - Alibaba officially announced the "Qianwen" project, aiming to enter the "AI to C" market, with the public beta version of the Qianwen APP launched, integrating the world's top-performing open-source model Qwen3 and competing directly with ChatGPT [7] - Luckin Coffee reported third-quarter total revenue of 15.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 50.2%, with GMV growing 48.1% to 17.3 billion yuan. However, net profit decreased by 2.7% to 1.278 billion yuan, with the net profit margin dropping from 12.9% to 8.4% [8] - Domestic GPU unicorn Muxi Co., Ltd. received approval for its IPO on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, planning to issue no more than 40.1 million A-shares and raise 3.904 billion yuan for multiple GPU projects [8] - CATL announced that its second-largest shareholder, Huang Shilin, has set the transfer price at 376.12 yuan per share, with the total number of shares to be transferred amounting to 45.6324 million shares, resulting in a cash-out of 17.163 billion yuan [8] - XPeng Motors released its financial report, showing third-quarter revenue of 20.38 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 101.8%, with a net loss of 380 million yuan and a gross margin of 20.1%. The company expects fourth-quarter revenue between 21 billion and 23 billion yuan, with vehicle deliveries projected at 125,000 to 132,000 units [8] Industry Insights - In November, a total of 509 overseas institutions conducted research on 109 listed companies, with a focus on the electronics and machinery sectors, which attracted 22 and 15 companies respectively. The electronic industry reported a 15% year-on-year increase in total revenue and a 46% increase in net profit for the third quarter, indicating continued industry prosperity driven by artificial intelligence [5][6] - The Ministry of Commerce announced a review of anti-subsidy measures on imports of propylene from the U.S., effective from November 18, 2025, continuing to impose anti-subsidy taxes during the review period [2] - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that during the first ten months of the year, national fiscal revenue reached 18.65 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, while fiscal expenditure was 22.58 trillion yuan, up 2% [2]

根据《中华人民共和国反补贴条例》第四十七条规定，商务部决定自2025年11月18日起，对原产于美国 的进口正丙醇所适用的反补贴措施进行期终复审调查。 根据商务部建议，国务院关税税则委员会决定，在反补贴措施期终复审调查期间，对原产于美国的进口 正丙醇继续按照商务部2020年第47号公告公布的征税产品范围和税率征收反补贴税。 经济观察网据央视新闻客户端消息，商务部今天发布2025年第75号公告，公布对原产于美国的进口正丙 醇所适用的反补贴措施发起期终复审调查。 ...

人民财讯11月17日电，商务部公告称，2020年11月17日，商务部发布2020年第47号公告，决定自2020年 11月18日起，对原产于美国的进口正丙醇征收反补贴税，税率为34.2%-37.7%，实施期限为5年。根据 《中华人民共和国反补贴条例》第四十七条规定，商务部决定自2025年11月18日起，对原产于美国的进 口正丙醇所适用的反补贴措施进行期终复审调查。根据商务部建议，国务院关税税则委员会决定，在反 补贴措施期终复审调查期间，对原产于美国的进口正丙醇继续按照商务部2020年第47号公告公布的征税 产品范围和税率征收反补贴税。 ...

人民财讯11月17日电，商务部公告称，2020年11月17日，商务部发布2020年第46号公告，决定自2020年 11月18日起，对原产于美国的进口正丙醇征收反倾销税，税率为254.4%-267.4%，实施期限为5年。根据 《中华人民共和国反倾销条例》第四十八条规定，商务部决定自2025年11月18日起，对原产于美国的进 口正丙醇所适用的反倾销措施进行期终复审调查。根据商务部建议，国务院关税税则委员会决定，在反 倾销措施期终复审调查期间，对原产于美国的进口正丙醇继续按照商务部2020年第46号公告公布的征税 产品范围和税率征收反倾销税。 ...