SMBC日兴证券高级利率策略师Ataru Okumura在周四的一份报告中写道："外资本是2025年上半年超长 期日债的主要需求来源，其净买入额锐增令人担忧收益率曲线长端未来可能出现波动。" 彭博策略师Mark Cranfield表示："日本国债期货未平仓合约近期增加表明，激进交易员愈发确信——10 月加息概率已从五成可能性发展为完全定价，这一预期将在植田和男回国前持续强化。" 周四，20年期国债收益率升至2.655%，创下自1999年以来的最高水平。30年期国债收益率也攀升至 3.185%，逐渐逼近同年该期限债券首次推出以来的历史最高点。 此番波动源于投资者对财政刺激政策的预期——执政联盟在7月参议院选举失利后可能加大债券发行规 模，令本就承压的长期债券雪上加霜。与此同时通胀担忧持续施压超长期债券，迫使日本央行面临更大 加息压力。 投资者需求也在持续减弱。日本证券业协会数据显示，7月外资对10年以上期限国债的净购买额降至 4800亿日元(约合33亿美元)，仅为6月规模的三分之一，表明海外投资者在年初大举买入后正在撤退。 智通财经APP获悉，由于市场对财政扩张的持续担忧以及主要投资者需求减弱，日本超长期政府债 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market showed a clear correction trend from August 11 to August 15, with the ChiNext Index rising the most at 8.58%, and the ChiNext 50 increasing by 9.90, indicating continued attractiveness in the growth sector after a short-term adjustment [2] - The major indices performed as follows: the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.70%, briefly surpassing the 3700-point mark, while the Wind first-level average increase was 2.03% with 89% of the Wind 100 concept index recording gains [2] - Sector performance was mixed, with telecommunications, electronics, and non-bank financials performing well, increasing by 7.66%, 7.02%, and 6.48% respectively, while textiles, steel, and banking sectors weakened, declining by 1.37%, 2.04%, and 3.19% respectively [2] Fund Issuance - A total of 23 funds were issued last week, including 14 equity funds, 6 mixed funds, and 3 bond funds, with a total issuance of 9.946 billion units [16] Fund Performance - The Wind All Fund Index rose by 1.83% last week, with the ordinary equity fund index increasing by 3.82% and the mixed equity fund index rising by 3.85% [8] - The bond fund index saw a slight decline of 0.02%, indicating a challenging environment for fixed-income investments [8] Global Asset Review - Global asset performance showed divergence, with developed markets like the US maintaining upward momentum supported by resilient tech earnings and policy expectations, while emerging markets displayed greater elasticity, particularly in Vietnam and Russia [4] - The energy sector experienced increased volatility, with oil and gas prices affected by supply-demand rebalancing and geopolitical risks, while metal prices remained resilient due to new energy demand and supply disruptions [4] Domestic Bond Market Review - The national bond futures index (CFFEX 10-year) fell by 0.29%, and the 30-year national bond futures main contract dropped by 1.48%, indicating significant downward pressure on long-term interest rates [12]

Group 1 - The global phenol and acetone market is facing dual pressures of weak demand and oversupply, with participants pessimistic about recovery prospects until the second half of 2025 [2] - In Europe, market participants have little hope for demand recovery for the remainder of the year due to oversupply, with Orlen's decision to halt production unlikely to alleviate the situation [2] - European phenol and acetone prices have remained weak, with July 29 assessments showing acetone at €600 per ton (down 33.3% since January) and phenol at €771 per ton (down 26% since January) [2] Group 2 - In the U.S., market participants expect stability in phenol and acetone markets by year-end, but low housing starts and renovation projects due to inflationary pressures will suppress demand [3] - U.S. acetone demand has stagnated since 2023, with expectations of continued weakness until 2025, and the market may face oversupply requiring increased exports [3] - As of July 22, U.S. Gulf acetone was priced at $992 per ton (down 4% since January) and phenol at $1,046 per ton (down 8% since January) [3] Group 3 - Asia is expected to continue increasing production capacity, with supply to India rising in the second half of the year, despite slow growth in solvent demand [4] - Indian phenol prices have dropped to near two-year lows, and acetone prices have reached 31-month lows due to increased supply from Asian suppliers [4] - The Asian phenol market may experience intensified oversupply due to seasonal weakening and ongoing capacity expansion, with producers facing further margin pressure [4]

Core Insights - The Bank of Canada has conducted a survey indicating that many businesses are absorbing tariff costs due to competitive pressures and weak demand [1] Group 1: Economic Impact - Businesses are facing increased costs from tariffs, which they are unable to pass on to consumers due to competitive market conditions [1] - The survey highlights a significant concern among companies regarding the impact of tariffs on their profitability and pricing strategies [1] Group 2: Industry Response - Companies are adapting to the current economic environment by finding ways to manage and mitigate the financial burden of tariffs [1] - The findings suggest a potential shift in business strategies as firms navigate the challenges posed by both tariffs and subdued demand [1]

Core Viewpoint - The CEO of United Airlines indicated that uncertainty is leading to weak demand in the first five months of 2025 [1] Group 1 - The airline industry is experiencing a decline in demand due to various uncertainties affecting consumer confidence [1] - United Airlines is closely monitoring market conditions to adapt its strategies accordingly [1] - The CEO emphasized the importance of understanding these uncertainties to navigate the upcoming challenges [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of Trump's ultimatum to Russia on palm oil prices, highlighting concerns over demand weakness and profit-taking that led to the end of a two-day price increase for palm oil [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - Trump's ultimatum to Russia has created uncertainty in the market, influencing investor sentiment and trading behavior [1] - Profit-taking activities have been observed, contributing to the decline in palm oil prices after a brief rally [1] Group 2: Demand Concerns - There are growing worries about weak demand for palm oil, which may affect future price stability [1] - The ability of palm oil to maintain key support levels is in question due to these demand concerns [1]

Group 1 - The company, Bohai Chemical (600800), expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately -380 million to -340 million yuan for the first half of 2025 [1] - After excluding non-recurring gains and losses, the expected net profit attributable to shareholders is around -378 million to -338 million yuan for the same period [1] - The chemical industry is facing a dual challenge of overcapacity and weak demand in the first half of 2025, particularly affecting the PDH sector [1] Group 2 - The market supply-demand imbalance, combined with the impact of propane import tariffs, is increasing the company's raw material procurement costs [1] - The operational pressure on the company is significantly rising due to these challenges in the industry [1]

Group 1 - PVC futures main contract experienced fluctuations, reaching a peak of 4930.00 yuan, closing at 4920.00 yuan with a 0.70% increase [1] - Institutions predict PVC prices will remain weak due to increased supply and low demand, with expectations of low-level fluctuations [1][2] - The supply side is pressured by new production capacities from companies like Wanhua Chemical and Tianjin Bohua, while demand remains sluggish, particularly in the real estate sector [1][2] Group 2 - The Indian PVC BIS policy has been postponed for another six months, which may positively impact future PVC exports [2] - The market anticipates an improvement in the oversupply situation due to the impact of anti-involution policies and sentiment in the building materials sector [2] - The expected trading range for the PVC 2509 contract is between 4800 and 5100 yuan, indicating low-level fluctuations [2]

Group 1 - OPEC+ is expected to continue increasing production in September, potentially leading to an earlier completion of the voluntary reduction plan initiated in April, which aimed to cut 2.2 million barrels per day [1] - As of July 5, OPEC+ decided to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day, with the goal of gradually unwinding the previous reduction plan [1] - The cumulative increase in OPEC+ production quotas from April to August has reached 1.918 million barrels per day, indicating a significant rise in output [2] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the increase in OPEC+ production may lead to oversupply and a decline in oil prices, with predictions that prices could drop to $60 per barrel, below the fiscal breakeven level for OPEC members [2] - The current market is dominated by expectations of oversupply, with limited growth in demand anticipated in the coming months despite a healthy consumption season [4] - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs under the Trump administration is contributing to weakened market sentiment, raising concerns about global trade and economic growth, which could further suppress oil demand [4]

Group 1: Oil Market Dynamics - International oil prices rose due to geopolitical risks and optimistic trade sentiments, but were constrained by a surge in U.S. crude oil inventories [1][2] - As of the latest close, West Texas Intermediate crude oil for August settled at $67.45 per barrel, up $2.00 (3.06%), while Brent crude for September settled at $69.11 per barrel, also up $2.00 (2.98%) [1] - U.S. crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased by 3.8 million barrels, the largest rise in three months, contrasting with analyst expectations of a decrease of 1.8 million barrels [2] Group 2: Geopolitical and Trade Influences - Iran's decision to limit inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reflects a challenge to the Western-led non-proliferation regime, increasing geopolitical risk premiums [3] - The U.S. reached a zero-tariff agreement with Vietnam, which has temporarily boosted investor sentiment regarding trade relations [2][4] - The trade agreement is seen as a potential signal for more agreements before the July 9 deadline, although the actual economic impact remains uncertain [4] Group 3: Supply and Demand Factors - Gasoline demand has dropped to 8.6 million barrels per day, raising concerns about summer driving season consumption, which typically requires around 9 million barrels per day to indicate market health [2][4] - Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports increased by 450,000 barrels per day in June, marking the largest rise in over a year, which may impact OPEC's production strategies [2] Group 4: Structural Challenges in Oil Production - The increase in U.S. crude oil inventories alongside Saudi export increases highlights the challenges faced by OPEC in balancing production cuts with market share [5] - The current market is experiencing a tug-of-war between "Iran risk premium" (+5% volatility potential) and "demand reality pressure" (-3% adjustment pressure), indicating a divergence between sentiment and data [5]