the state and B 27 f i .. a 11 and program and 文 | 赵伟 来源 | 上海证券报 提要： 理解今年经济需把握"夯实基础、全面发力、战略主动"三重导向。 "2026年是'十五五'开局之年，理解这一年的经济与政策，首先要看规划建议的一些重要表述。"赵伟表示，其中"夯实基础"和"全面发力"八个字，尤其值得关 注。 赵伟表示，"夯实基础"指的是对"十四五"以来所构建的产业体系、市场基础和制度框架的巩固与深化。而"全面发力"意味着在发展与改革相关领域，政策推进 与落实的速度将会加快。 此外，赵伟表示还要高度重视"战略主动"这一导向。国家在政策层面的主动性将显著增强，主要体现在两个方面：一是统筹国内经济工作与国际经贸斗争的主 动性将显著提高；二是开放相关领域的主动性也将明显提升。 展望2026年，赵伟认为，内需将从"信心筑底"逐步迈向"非典型复苏"。这一过程具有三个特征：物价水平逐步从螺旋式下行回归正常区间；宏观指标呈现显著 的结构性分化；复苏本身将是一个伴随结构转型的渐进过程。 在投资端有三个关键方向：首先 是与未来新兴产业相关的持续投入，有望带来新的增长点； 其次 是" ...

Investment Overview - In the first ten months of the year, overall investment has declined, but investments related to people's livelihood and high-tech industries have shown strong performance [2] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 37,153.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%, while investment excluding real estate development grew by 3.0% [2] - October saw a significant drop in fixed investment, with a year-on-year decline of 10.7% [2] Sector Performance - High-tech industries continue to grow significantly, with investments in information services, aerospace, and computer manufacturing increasing by 33.1%, 20.6%, and 7.4% respectively, outperforming overall investment growth rates [2] - Railway construction has been robust, with fixed asset investment reaching 671.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.7% [2][4] Infrastructure Investment - Infrastructure investment grew by 1.1% in the first three quarters, contributing to a 0.2 percentage point increase in total investment [5] - Railway investment growth is notably higher than the average, with several key projects progressing well [4][5] Real Estate Sector - Real estate investment has seen a significant decline, with a year-on-year drop of 14.7% in the first ten months, negatively impacting overall investment growth [7] - In October, real estate investment decreased by 23%, with sales area and funding for real estate companies also declining sharply [6][7] Manufacturing and Other Industries - Manufacturing investment grew by 2.7% year-on-year, accounting for 25.6% of total investment, which is an increase from the previous year [7] - Investments in the automotive and transportation equipment sectors maintained double-digit growth [5] Green and High-Tech Investments - Investments in high-tech sectors such as aerospace and information services grew by 19.7% and 32.7% respectively [8] - Clean energy investments, including solar and wind power, saw a combined year-on-year growth of 10.4% [8] Economic Outlook - Despite a slight decline in investment in October, the overall investment potential remains significant, with expectations for reasonable growth in the fourth quarter due to new policies and financial tools [3][8]