图源：申万宏源 11月18日，2026申万宏源资本市场策略会在上海举行。 申万宏源党委书记、董事长刘健在会上致辞。他在致辞中表示，2026年是"十五五"开启之年，中国经济和资本市场都将进入高质量发展的新阶段。 申万宏源首席经济学家赵伟、申万宏源研究A股策略首席分析师傅静涛等研究大咖也分享了最新的宏观、策略等观点。 赵伟表示，伴随"疤痕效应"退潮与持续深化的扩内需政策，经济在2026年有望经历从"信心筑底"到"非典型"复苏；出口方面，发达经济体财政扩张、中美关税冲突 缓和、中国产业竞争力提升均将成为贡献出口韧性的关键力量；"反内卷"加码下，通胀指标改善有望带动企业盈利持续修复。 傅静涛表示，牛市远未结束。他把牛市分为两个阶段。2025年的科技结构牛是"牛市1.0"阶段，2026年春季可能是阶段性高点；2026年下半年可能启动全面牛，构 成"牛市2.0"阶段。 经济有望"非典型"复苏 申万宏源证券首席经济学家赵伟在会上做了宏观展望。他表示，2026年或将是党的二十届三中全会以来"改革"全面加速的开始，四中全会将"完善宏观经济治理"升 级为"完善宏观经济治理体系"，凸显了改革的全局思维。 向"改革"要红利，或意味着 ...

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of "reform" as a source of dividends for the economy, particularly in the context of the 14th Five-Year Plan, which is expected to accelerate reform processes and enhance domestic demand policies [3][67][83] - The domestic economic environment has undergone three significant changes: the retreat of the "scar effect," the weakening impact of tariff conflicts on the economy, and the gradual formation of a new supply-side reform framework [2][8][21] - The article discusses the "non-typical recovery" of the economy, driven by improved consumer confidence and the effects of ongoing domestic demand policies, which are expected to lead to a recovery in investment growth and corporate profitability [4][5][55] Group 2 - The article highlights the need for a clear industrial adjustment strategy, focusing on advanced manufacturing as a backbone while upgrading traditional sectors and accelerating the opening of the service industry [67][74] - It points out that the structural changes in exports are evident, with a shift towards high value-added products and a decrease in low value-added goods, indicating a robust export resilience [21][22] - The article stresses the importance of addressing the "internal competition" within industries, which has led to a decline in profit margins and necessitates policies aimed at enhancing corporate profitability and operational vitality [15][41][55]