移仓换月加快 油强粕弱凸显 研究所 ----国信期货油脂油料周报 2025年12月5日 研究所 目录 CONTENTS 1 蛋白粕市场分析 2 油脂市场分析 3 后市展望 研究所 Part1 第一部分 蛋白粕市场分析 一、蛋白粕市场分析 研究所 本周行情回顾：本周CBOT大豆高位回落。原因是缺乏对最大买家中国的大豆销售，市场仍质疑中国能否如美国高级官员宣布的那样在2025年底前购买1200万吨大豆。在随后的USDA报告 没有新的美国大豆订单。美国财政部长斯科特•贝森特周三在《纽约时报》DealBook峰会上表示，中国准备履行其在美中贸易协议下的承诺，包括购买1200万吨大豆。贝森特称，这笔交易将 于2026年2月底完成。这让市场乐观的情绪发生转变。交易商称，因缺乏支持性消息，且预期南美大豆将丰收，美豆震荡回落，主力合约将考验1100美分/蒲式耳的支撑力度。受此影响国内豆 粕市场先扬后抑，资金完成从M2601向M2605合约移仓。现货方面，国内豆粕库存继续增加，库存压力沉重。市场不时传出中粮及中储粮储备大豆拍卖的消息，但并未得到官方证实。连粕市 场因此也是震荡反复。主力合约M2605在突破前高后震荡回落，多空资 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is anticipated to influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy, with traders closely monitoring the inflation data [1] - Current gold prices are fluctuating within the range of $3300 to $3350, indicating a potential breakout in the near future [1] - The MACD indicator suggests a weakening bullish momentum, although the market remains in a bullish trend overall [1] Group 2: Gold Trading Recommendations - Short selling plans include two strategies: selling at $3354-$3359 and $3380-$3385, with stop-losses set at 8 points [3] - Long buying plans include two strategies: buying at $3325-$3330 and $3265-$3270, also with stop-losses set at 8 points [3] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - Oil prices are under pressure due to uncertainties surrounding global trade and the impact on oil demand, particularly regarding US-China trade relations [1] - The market is awaiting the results of trade negotiations and the EIA data for further direction, with current prices fluctuating around $65 [1] - The daily chart indicates a bullish trend, but recent price action suggests a potential shift in the short-term trend [1] Group 4: Oil Trading Recommendations - Short selling plans include two strategies: selling at $65.2-$65.5 and $66.4-$66.6, with targets set at $63.8 [5] - Long buying plans include two strategies: buying at $64.2-$63.8 and $62.5-$62.8, with targets set at $65.5 [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the strong employment data in Australia for April, which has positively impacted the Australian dollar (AUD) against the US dollar (USD) [1] - Australia's unemployment rate remained stable at 4.1%, while employment surged by 890,000, significantly exceeding market expectations [1] - The participation rate in the labor force increased to 67.1%, nearing record highs, indicating a robust job market despite a recent decline in working hours [1] Group 2 - The AUD/USD exchange rate is showing a clear V-shaped reversal pattern, having rebounded strongly after hitting a low of 0.5913 in early April [1] - Key support for the AUD/USD is identified at the previous resistance level of 0.6430, with stronger support at 0.6300 [2] - Initial resistance is at the psychological level of 0.6500, with targets set towards the 0.6550-0.6600 range upon a breakout [2]

欧佩克月报：90天的美中贸易协议表明双方有可能达成更持久的协议，这可能有助于推动贸易流动的正 常化。 ...