Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - As Iran's attitude hardens, the gold and silver prices first rose and then fell. However, market sentiment has significantly improved. The uncertainty of the US - Iran peace talks is high, but the sentiment has eased, leading to a volatile trend in gold and silver prices [4][5] - The ongoing escalation of the US - Iran conflict, high oil prices, and rising expectations of interest rate hikes have caused gold prices to continue to give back gains in recent years. With the approaching mid - term elections, there is still support at the macro level [10][13] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: The price of gold first rose and then fell as Iran's attitude hardened. US and European stock markets rose, US bond yields mostly fell, the US dollar index rose, and the offshore RMB depreciated against the US dollar. COMEX gold futures rose 2.30% to $4503.30 per ounce [4] - **Silver**: Similar to gold, the silver price first rose and then fell. COMEX silver futures rose 2.70% to $71.44 per ounce [5] 2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The basis is - 3.27, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is neutral. The gold futures warehouse receipts decreased by 3 kilograms to 1067463 kilograms, which is bearish. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the k - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish. The main net long position increased, which is bullish [4] - **Silver**: The basis is - 51, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is neutral. The Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts increased by 10171 kilograms to 376094 kilograms, which is bullish. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the k - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish. The main net long position increased, which is bullish [6] 3. Today's Focus - Time TBD: The Boao Forum for Asia Annual Conference 2026 is held; the 14th Ministerial Conference of the World Trade Organization is held, and the Minister of Commerce will attend - 17:00: European Central Bank Vice - President de Guindos and Governing Council member Muller speak, and the Norwegian Central Bank announces its interest rate decision - 17:30: Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden speaks - 20:30: The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week of March 21 is released - 00:00 the next day: Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Governor Rogers speaks, and Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Alan Taylor speaks in New York, USA - 00:30 the next day: Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Greene speaks in Berlin - 03:00 the next day: The Mexican Central Bank announces its interest rate decision - 04:00 the next day: Federal Reserve Governor Cook talks about financial stability - 06:30 the next day: Federal Reserve Governor Milan talks about the balance sheet [16] 4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The gold price is affected by factors such as the US - Iran conflict, oil prices, interest rate hike expectations, and mid - term elections. The macro - level support still exists, but the price has continued to give back gains due to high oil prices and interest rate hike expectations [10] - **Silver**: Similar to gold, the silver price is also affected by the US - Iran conflict, oil prices, and interest rate hike expectations. In addition, the photovoltaic and technology sectors support the silver price, and the low spot inventory and hot supply - shortage game are also factors [15] 5. Position Data - **Gold**: The long positions of the top 20 in Shanghai gold decreased by 2.87% to 159328, the short positions decreased by 0.82% to 43816, and the net long position decreased by 3.63% to 115512 [40] - **Silver**: The long positions of the top 20 in Shanghai silver decreased by 2.84% to 250241, the short positions decreased by 3.03% to 238173, and the net long position increased by 1.22% to 12068 [43] - **ETF Positions**: The SPDR gold ETF position remained flat, and the silver ETF position decreased slightly [45][47] - **Warehouse Receipts**: COMEX gold warehouse receipts continued to decrease and remained at a high level, while Shanghai gold warehouse receipts increased slightly. Shanghai silver warehouse receipts increased slightly and were at the lowest level in the past six years, and COMEX silver warehouse receipts continued to decrease [49][51]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The precious metals are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and follow - up attention should be paid to the progress of the US - Iran peace talks and energy price fluctuations, while being vigilant about the uncertainty brought by the recurrence of geopolitical conflicts [1] - Gold is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term. Unless the US - Iran negotiations make substantial breakthroughs and drive oil prices to decline continuously, the upward space of gold prices may be limited. In the long - term, the core logic of gold's rise remains unchanged [1][2] - Silver is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term. In the long - term, if the economic cycle shifts to a stagflation scenario, silver's elasticity may be limited and its trend will generally follow gold; if the economy returns to the recovery path, the elasticity of silver's industrial product attributes is expected to be gradually released, promoting its price to strengthen further [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals Market Overview - The market sentiment has been repaired, and precious metals have fluctuated upward, mainly boosted by the US releasing a peace - talk signal. The easing signal of the Middle East geopolitical situation has led to a decline in oil prices, partially alleviating market concerns about inflation and high interest rates, and supporting the strengthening of gold and silver prices [1] Gold Analysis - Short - term: Gold prices at home and abroad fluctuated upward. COMEX gold rose by more than 3% and SHFE gold rose by nearly 2%. The optimistic sentiment of a possible cease - fire in the Middle East boosted the price. However, Iran made a "negative response" to the US proposal [1] - Long - term: The core logic of gold's rise remains unchanged [2] Silver Analysis - Short - term: The domestic silver price rebounded following the foreign market. COMEX silver rose by more than 4% and SHFE silver rose by nearly 3%. The signal of the US's intention to cease fire for a month boosted the market sentiment. The decline in oil prices alleviated inflation concerns, and the marginal improvement of the US economic development path was beneficial to the industrial product elasticity of silver. However, the short - term spot drive of silver itself was still weak [2] - Long - term: The performance of silver depends on the economic cycle. If it shifts to stagflation, silver follows gold; if the economy recovers, silver's industrial product attributes will drive its price up [2] Commodity Index - The comprehensive index was 2505.87, a decrease of 0.37%; the commodity 20 index was 2799.49, an increase of 0.16%; the industrial products index was 2541.47, a decrease of 1.12% [44] - The precious metals index on March 25, 2026, was 3770.68, with a daily increase of 2.91%, a 5 - day decrease of 6.85%, a 1 - month decrease of 15.47%, and a year - to - date decrease of 1.40% [46]

Group 1 - The U.S. government has proposed a conflict resolution plan to Iran through Pakistan, which includes 15 conditions related to nuclear programs, missile capabilities, and regional issues [1] - Key U.S. demands include dismantling existing nuclear capabilities, committing not to develop nuclear weapons, prohibiting uranium enrichment domestically, transferring approximately 60% of high-enriched uranium stock, dismantling nuclear facilities in Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow, and allowing comprehensive inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) [1] - In exchange, Iran may receive a full lifting of international sanctions, U.S. support for its civilian nuclear program, and the cancellation of the "snapback" sanctions mechanism [1] Group 2 - The U.S. is considering a one-month ceasefire to facilitate further negotiations on the proposed terms [1] - The plan is being promoted by advisors to former President Trump, including Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff [1] - Concurrently, international oil prices have experienced fluctuations, with a low of $87.88 per barrel, influenced by the situation in the Middle East [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing military conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran, highlighting the potential for diplomatic negotiations initiated by the Trump administration to end the hostilities [1][2]. Group 1: U.S. and Israel's Military Actions - The military strikes by the U.S. and Israel against Iran have been ongoing for over three weeks [1]. - U.S. officials anticipate that the conflict may continue for an additional two to three weeks [1]. Group 2: Diplomatic Efforts and Conditions - The Trump administration is reportedly planning negotiations with Iran through third parties, such as Egypt and Qatar, to facilitate initial discussions [1]. - Any potential agreement is expected to include terms regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the handling of Iran's high-enriched uranium, along with long-term commitments on Iran's nuclear program and missile projects [1]. - Specific demands from the U.S. include a five-year halt on Iran's missile development, restrictions on uranium enrichment activities, and agreements on military control regarding missile range with regional countries [1]. Group 3: Iran's Position - Iran's Foreign Minister, Zarif, has condemned the U.S. and Israeli attacks as illegal and has called for a unified global response against the aggression [2]. - Iran is not interested in a temporary ceasefire but seeks a comprehensive resolution to end the war, including guarantees against future attacks and compensation for damages incurred [2][3].

Group 1 - President Trump denied any contact with Iran regarding peace negotiations, labeling reports as "fake news" [1] - Axios reported that the White House is considering a meeting with Iran to discuss nuclear agreements and a ceasefire with Israel [1] - Trump expressed hope for a signed agreement with Iran, stating that direct communication is preferable [1] Group 2 - The Trump administration is contemplating using the provision of bunker-busting bombs to Israel as leverage in negotiations with Iran [1] - Israeli Ambassador to the U.S. hinted at a significant military action against Iran, suggesting it would be more impactful than previous operations [1] - Trump refuted claims that his early departure from the G7 summit was related to ceasefire discussions between Israel and Iran [1]