Group 1 - The international gold market has seen a surge, with gold prices surpassing $3,650 per ounce, marking a historical high and a year-to-date increase of nearly 38% [1][3] - The recent spike in gold prices is primarily driven by disappointing U.S. non-farm payroll data, which reported only 22,000 new jobs in August, significantly below the expected 75,000, raising concerns about the U.S. economic outlook and leading to a decline in the U.S. dollar index [3] - The weak non-farm data has heightened expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, increasing inflation expectations globally and boosting demand for gold as a hedge against inflation [3] Group 2 - The long-term trend for gold prices remains positive, with a steady increase since 2016, characterized by a slow bull market, and a notable acceleration in the past two years, with a 27.39% increase in 2024 and a 37.82% increase in 2025 to date [3] - Goldman Sachs predicts that if the credibility of the Federal Reserve is compromised, gold prices could potentially exceed $5,000 per ounce [3] Group 3 - In contrast to the booming gold market, the A-share market is still in a critical breakthrough phase, with the Shanghai Composite Index struggling to overcome resistance levels from historical highs in 2007 and 2015 [4] - The A-share market is currently valued at historical median levels, presenting a significant value proposition compared to the average valuation of over 30 times in the U.S. stock market [4] - With the impending rate cut cycle from the Federal Reserve, both gold and A-shares face upward breakout opportunities, with the A-share index needing only a 5% increase to reach 4,000 points, compared to a 10% increase for gold [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent trade agreement between the US and EU has positively impacted market sentiment, leading to a stronger dollar and a decline in gold prices, with gold reaching a near three-week low [1][2][3]. Group 1: Trade Agreements and Market Impact - The US and EU reached a significant trade agreement on July 27, setting import tariffs on EU goods at 15%, alleviating fears of a larger trade war [1]. - This agreement has reduced concerns about a global economic recession and increased the attractiveness of risk assets, boosting stock markets and the dollar [1]. - The S&P 500 index reached a new closing high for six consecutive trading days, while the Nasdaq index also set a record, indicating heightened investor enthusiasm for risk assets [1]. Group 2: Currency and Gold Price Dynamics - The dollar index (DXY) surged nearly 1% to 98.64, marking its largest single-day increase since May 12, which negatively affects gold prices as a stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for foreign buyers [2][3]. - Historical trends show a negative correlation between the dollar and gold prices, with a strong dollar increasing the holding costs of gold and diminishing its appeal as a safe-haven asset [3]. Group 3: Ongoing Trade Negotiations - Despite the positive sentiment from the US-EU agreement, uncertainties remain in US-China trade negotiations, which continue to provide some support for gold prices [5]. - US and Chinese officials resumed talks in Stockholm on July 28, aiming to extend the trade truce by 90 days, but no significant breakthroughs are expected [5]. - The Trump administration's high-pressure stance on trade issues and recent agreements with other countries highlight the US's dominant position in global trade, contributing to cautious market sentiment regarding the US-China negotiations [5]. Group 4: Technical Analysis of Gold Trading - Analysts indicate that gold prices have fallen below the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) of $3,335 per ounce, marking the fourth consecutive day of decline [6]. - If gold prices drop below $3,300 per ounce, the next support level is around $3,244 per ounce, with further targets at $3,200 and $3,120 per ounce [6]. - Conversely, if gold recovers above $3,350 per ounce, it could pave the way towards $3,400 and potentially reach historical highs of $3,500 per ounce [6].