Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in exchange rates have made the market focus on the significant appreciation of the Renminbi, which rose nearly 600 points, reaching its highest level since November of the previous year, driven by positive signals from US tariff negotiations [1][2] Group 1: Renminbi Appreciation Potential - The short-term appreciation potential of the Renminbi is expected to be limited, with a range between 7.10 and 7.20, as the central bank's intervention intentions are not clearly indicated [2] - Historical experience shows that the central bank is particularly concerned about the levels around 7.1 and 7.0, which may act as psychological barriers [2] - The central bank may need to control the Renminbi's depreciation against other currencies to avoid new frictions, particularly with the Euro, where the current exchange rate is 8.21 [2] Group 2: Signals from Asian Currency Volatility - The collective movements of Asian currencies may indicate a structural change in exchange rate paradigms, suggesting ongoing pressure on the US dollar [3][4] - The Hong Kong dollar, pegged to the US dollar, faces concerns about maintaining its "weak-side guarantee" amidst a weakening dollar system, which could lead to increased liquidity in the Hong Kong market [3] - The Taiwanese dollar's depreciation and widening interest rate differentials with the US may lead financial institutions to seek diversification strategies, reducing exposure to US assets [3][4] - The Renminbi's mechanism of limiting volatility through central bank interventions and the distinction between onshore and offshore markets may lead to significant fluctuations during long holidays, followed by a return to normal trading patterns post-holiday [4]

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in exchange rates have made them the focal point of the market, with Asian currencies experiencing significant movements, particularly the Chinese yuan, which surged nearly 600 points against the US dollar, reaching its highest level since November of the previous year [1][4]. Group 1: Currency Movements - The onshore yuan rose to its highest level since November, gaining nearly 600 points in a single day [1]. - The offshore yuan briefly surpassed 7.20 against the US dollar, while the Hong Kong dollar hit its strong-side convertibility guarantee, and the Taiwanese dollar saw a historic surge, accumulating over 9% in two days [4]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Currency Changes - The immediate catalyst for these significant currency movements was positive signals from US tariff negotiations [4]. - Analysts suggest that the yuan's appreciation potential should be tempered, with expectations of trading between 7.10 and 7.20, as the central bank's intervention intentions remain unclear [6]. Group 3: Long-term Implications for Asian Currencies - The collective movements of Asian currencies may indicate a shift in exchange rate paradigms, suggesting structural pressure on the US dollar [6]. - The Hong Kong dollar, Taiwanese dollar, and Chinese yuan represent three distinct exchange rate models, each facing unique challenges and potential adjustments in response to changing global dynamics [6][7]. Group 4: Currency Models - The Hong Kong dollar operates under a model anchored to the US dollar, raising concerns about maintaining its peg amid a weakening dollar system [6][7]. - The Taiwanese dollar's model involves currency undervaluation to accumulate trade surpluses, with potential shifts towards diversification in investment strategies as external conditions change [7]. - The yuan's model focuses on limiting volatility through mechanisms like the central bank's middle rate guidance, with limited participation from domestic financial institutions [7].

美国政府经贸政策动摇美元体系。 冷战结束后的前二十多年，全球化不断推进，美元在全球贸易、投融资的中心货币地位持续提升。但自2016年起，美 国奉行"脱钩断链"、"小院高墙"。美国对中、俄等贸易大国的贸易保护、制裁等措施，使得美元的使用范围正在收缩。而美国频繁动用金融制裁也使得市 场对于持有美元的担忧有所上升。在这种情况下，为保持美元的吸引力，美国需要维持高利率以及强势的货币币值。 但美国如果延续高利率政策又将动摇美债体系。 美国在对外采取贸易保护的同时，对内已转向"大政府"思路，这使得美国政府债务率被推至历史高位。而且从 近期美国的战略规划来看，未来美国仍将维持高强度财政投入。在此背景下，如果高利率持续，将意味着债务的利息负担急剧扩张，进而导致债务率本身加速 上升，引发市场对于美债可持续性的担忧。 "稳美元"还是"稳美债"，联储货币政策框架或已发生系统性改变。 从上述分析可以看出，联储除了其传统的关注点——就业与通胀——之外，还不得不同时关 注维持美元吸引力以及维系美债可持续性的问题。但这两个目标对联储的诉求是矛盾的，"稳美元"需要相对高利率来维持对资金的吸引力，而"稳美债"则需要利 率不能过高。联储面临"双 ...