本文来自微信公众号：宋无衣港漂生活随记，作者：宋无衣，题图来自 我喜欢香港的山海景，给人一种被治愈的感觉。 香港的自然景观就算不是国际一流，那也是全国一流。 南区直面太平洋，山峦起伏，湛蓝色的太平洋中散布着众多小岛如上帝遗落在人间的珍珠。据说这些小岛是很多年前历史上火山喷发岩浆冷却后形成的， 难怪被称之为世界地质瑰宝。有些小岛上是无人居住的，有些小岛有人居住，便可以坐船上岛溜达，这让大家周末假日生活异常充实。 最近心灵天天被群友们毒打，国庆朋友圈早已经五湖四海。 我是通过朋友圈假期打卡远近来判断经济好坏的，今年似乎经济有所好转，打卡已经突破国内和东南亚，又看到朋友圈晒非洲旅行照片。暂时没看到南美 和南极洲旅行的朋友圈，说明经济还没有恢复到最鼎盛时期。 天天被群友们灌输香港如何如何不好，内地如何如何好。移居香港工作生活成为一种难以理解的事情。 自己生活似乎步入正轨，生活状态如愿继续，白天属于工作，晚上属于孩子，过上了跟上海养娃一模一样的"理想生活"。少了一丝焦虑的淡然，无远大追 求的状态倒也没啥不好，难得地自洽，也收获了孩子们的亲昵。似乎一切都值得。 所以我也真的不知道香港好不好，原本只是觉得物价贵，现在也渐渐 ...

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the first board of directors of the Hong Kong Gold Exchange marks a significant milestone in the precious metals market, with 皇御贵金属 (Huangyu Precious Metals) celebrating its AA-level membership and commitment to safety and transparency in operations [1][9]. Compliance and Trust - The AA license in Hong Kong serves as a compliance "pass" and a "filter" for the precious metals industry, with 皇御贵金属 maintaining a compliant and stable operation despite high capital thresholds, compliance costs, and technical investments [3]. Transparency and Verification - The company provides real-time disclosure of spreads, market conditions, and transaction depth on its website, along with certification of trading codes from the Hong Kong Gold Exchange, allowing clients to verify order details [4]. Speed and Efficiency - 皇御贵金属 emphasizes a fast trading experience with quick order execution and dedicated personnel for fund deposits and withdrawals, ensuring efficient transactions year-round [5]. Security and Trustworthiness - The company employs a multi-dimensional security system, holding the highest AA-class trading license from the Hong Kong Gold Exchange, ensuring legal operations in various gold trading activities while maintaining high security and transparency for clients [6]. Ecosystem and Accessibility - 皇御贵金属 has launched low-threshold spot gold trading services and a one-stop trading system to facilitate asset diversification and digital transformation for investors, alongside an educational platform to enhance market understanding [8]. Recognition and Future Outlook - With numerous prestigious awards, 皇御贵金属 invites global investors to choose its AA-level qualifications, representing a century of regulatory backing, and aims to collaborate with the Hong Kong Gold Exchange to create new opportunities in gold investment [9].

Core Points - The Beijing Customs recently seized 1.4 million Hong Kong dollars from a traveler who failed to declare the cash while exiting through the capital airport [1][3] - The customs authorities remind travelers that cash currency is a restricted item for entry and exit, and those needing to carry large amounts exceeding the limits must apply for a foreign exchange exit permit in advance [1][3] Regulations on Currency Declaration - Travelers making multiple trips within a short period can carry up to the equivalent of 5,000 USD in Hong Kong dollars on their first exit within 15 days, and up to 1,000 USD on subsequent exits [3] - For travelers making multiple exits in one day, they can carry up to 5,000 USD on their first exit and only 500 USD on subsequent exits on the same day [3] - The customs emphasizes the importance of adhering to these regulations to avoid penalties [3]

Core Viewpoint - The liquidity changes in Hong Kong dollars (HKD) are a response to market dynamics and have significant implications for the Hong Kong stock market, with the fundamental economic conditions being a more critical factor than liquidity itself [1][3]. Group 1: Liquidity Changes - On June 26, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) sold US dollars and bought HKD to withdraw 9.42 billion HKD from the market due to the HKD exchange rate hitting the weak end of the peg at 7.85 HKD per USD [1]. - On July 2, HKMA further withdrew 20.018 billion HKD from the market, indicating a proactive approach to managing liquidity [1]. - The HKD is pegged to the USD, and the HKMA's actions are part of a system that maintains the exchange rate within a specified range, responding to market demand for HKD [1][2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The recent liquidity withdrawal is a dynamic balance following excessive HKD liquidity injected in early May, which led to a significant increase in interbank liquidity from 44.6 billion HKD to 174.1 billion HKD [2]. - The overnight and one-month Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (Hibor) remained low at around 0.5% for two months, indicating a misjudgment in the demand for HKD by the banking system [2]. - The rapid expansion of the USD-HKD interest rate differential has led to increased carry trade activities, causing the HKD to touch the weak end of the peg within a month [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - HKD liquidity is expected to remain relatively ample, with the primary influence on the Hong Kong stock market being the underlying economic fundamentals rather than liquidity levels [3]. - The current high interest rate differential of 3%-4% between USD and HKD is unlikely to persist, suggesting a gradual recovery of HKD liquidity and a rise in Hibor rates [3]. - The demand for HKD is expected to increase due to a weaker USD, inflows from the southbound trading, and a surge in Hong Kong IPOs, indicating a positive outlook for the HKD liquidity situation [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant divergence between the 3-month HIBOR rate and the Federal Funds rate, highlighting a liquidity paradox in Hong Kong where low interest rates do not correlate with rising stock prices [1][3][5]. Group 1: Liquidity and Stock Market Relationship - After May 20, the inversion of the HIBOR rate exceeded 250 basis points, indicating a liquidity surplus in Hong Kong [3]. - Despite low funding rates, the Hang Seng Index only increased by 1.64%, suggesting that liquidity does not necessarily lead to stock market gains [5]. - The relationship between funding rates and stock prices is complex; low rates can lead to deposit outflows, which may suppress risk asset prices [9][12]. Group 2: Capital Flows and Currency Impact - The outflow of deposits in Hong Kong, due to low interest rates, does not lead to a decline in stock prices but results in stagnation [12]. - When capital flows out of Hong Kong, it converts local currency deposits into USD, leading to increased excess reserves and liquidity in the interbank market [14]. - The relationship between exchange rates and stock prices is direct: currency appreciation typically supports stock market gains, while depreciation can lead to declines [16]. Group 3: Monetary Policy and External Influences - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) injected significant liquidity into the market, with a total of 1,166 million HKD released over four days [18]. - The 3-month HIBOR rate fell to 1.32% due to both the HKMA's liquidity injections and foreign capital outflows [22][23]. - The HKMA's actions reflect a strategy to manage foreign capital flows, with the potential to adjust liquidity based on market conditions [25][27]. Group 4: Theoretical Implications and Market Behavior - The article suggests that the HKMA's large liquidity injections are not necessarily positive for the market, as they may be aimed at curbing excessive foreign capital inflows [32]. - The divergence between theoretical expectations and actual market behavior indicates a need for investors to trust market signals over theoretical models [32]. - The 3-month HIBOR rate is not a reliable indicator of Hong Kong stock market liquidity due to the complexities of capital flows [35].

Group 1 - The recent volatility of the Hong Kong dollar (HKD) has been significant, transitioning from a strong to a weak peg in just 1.3 months, which is unusually rapid compared to historical shifts [1][6][99] - The HKD's depreciation occurred despite a weakening US dollar, which is atypical as previous shifts to the weak peg generally happened during periods of a strong dollar [1][6][99] - The 12-month forward exchange rate for HKD briefly fell below 7.75, indicating potential market concerns about the currency's stability [1][6][99] Group 2 - The initial trigger for the strong peg was due to a liquidity shortage caused by significant foreign capital inflows, large dividends from Hong Kong stocks, and a surge in fundraising activities [2][35][99] - Since the beginning of the year, cumulative inflows through the Stock Connect have reached 638.6 billion HKD, with foreign capital increasing by 5.1 million USD [2][35][99] - Major IPOs and substantial dividend payouts in the second quarter have further exacerbated liquidity constraints in the market [2][35][99] Group 3 - The approach of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) may be relatively restrained if the weak peg is triggered again, as they might not significantly tighten HKD liquidity [3][68][100] - The HKMA has the option to issue Exchange Fund Bills and Notes (EFBN) to manage market liquidity, although this has not been observed in the current situation [3][68][100] - A lower interest rate environment could benefit the Hong Kong economy and the stock market, as a weaker HKD may support exports and investment activities [3][68][90][100]

Group 1 - The recent volatility of the Hong Kong dollar (HKD) has been significant, with a rapid transition from the strong-side convertibility guarantee to the weak-side guarantee occurring in just 1.3 months, which is unusually fast compared to historical instances [1][6][99] - The HKD's depreciation occurred despite a weakening US dollar, which is atypical as previous transitions to the weak-side guarantee usually happened during a strong dollar period [2][6][99] - The 12-month forward exchange rate for HKD briefly fell below 7.75, indicating potential arbitrage opportunities if the weak-side guarantee is triggered [1][6][99] Group 2 - The initial trigger for the strong-side guarantee in early May was due to a liquidity shortage caused by significant foreign capital inflows, large dividends from Hong Kong stocks, and a surge in fundraising activities [2][35][99] - Since the beginning of the year, cumulative inflows through the Stock Connect have reached 638.6 billion HKD, and foreign capital tracked by EPFR has increased by 5.1 million USD [2][35][99] - The recent approach to the weak-side guarantee is primarily driven by market carry trades following a substantial liquidity release, with the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) injecting 129.4 billion HKD into the market [2][47][99] Group 3 - If the weak-side guarantee is triggered again, the HKMA is expected to maintain a relatively restrained approach to tightening HKD liquidity, potentially through the issuance of Exchange Fund Bills and Notes (EFBN) [3][68][100] - The current low interest rate environment may benefit the Hong Kong economy, as lower rates could stimulate investment and support the housing market [3][68][90] - Historical data suggests that a weaker HKD and lower interest rates could positively impact the Hong Kong stock market, as seen in previous periods of similar conditions [3][68][90]

Exchange Rate Dynamics - The Hong Kong dollar (HKD) has experienced significant fluctuations, transitioning from the strong-side convertibility guarantee to the weak-side guarantee within just 1.3 months, a notably rapid shift compared to previous instances which took 27.7 and 18.3 months respectively[15][69] - The HKD's depreciation occurred despite a weakening US dollar, which has declined by 1.9% since May 2, while the HKD itself has depreciated by 1.3%[15][69] - The 12-month forward exchange rate for USD/HKD has dropped significantly, falling below 7.75, indicating potential market pressures[15][69] Liquidity and Market Influences - The initial trigger for the strong-side guarantee was a liquidity shortage caused by substantial foreign capital inflows, with HK stock connect inflows totaling 638.6 billion HKD and an increase of 510 million USD in foreign investments tracked by EPFR[31][69] - Following the strong-side guarantee activation, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) injected 129.4 billion HKD into the market, a level of intervention that exceeded historical norms[2][40][69] - The abundant liquidity led to a significant drop in Hibor rates, with the 3-month SOFR-Hibor spread rising to 2.6%, facilitating carry trades that contributed to the HKD's rapid depreciation[2][40][69] Future Implications - If the weak-side guarantee is triggered again, the HKMA is expected to maintain a relatively restrained approach to liquidity tightening, potentially utilizing EFBN to manage market liquidity without drastic measures[3][70] - A lower interest rate environment may benefit the Hong Kong economy, supporting investment activities and providing some relief to the housing market, which has seen a reduction in negative equity to 205.9 billion HKD[3][63][70] - Despite the US dollar's potential for further weakening, the HKD may remain relatively weak if the interest rate differentials continue to be high, as evidenced by the HKD's performance during previous dollar declines[3][70]

Group 1 - The panic in the Hong Kong stock market has subsided, but the potential for further upward movement remains uncertain [3] - The market experienced a significant drop recently, attributed to an overreaction to certain news, but has since shown signs of recovery with support from southbound capital [3][4] - The overall trend of the Hong Kong market has been one of fluctuation since mid-May, with a lack of strong support from capital inflows [3][4] Group 2 - The Hong Kong dollar has been hovering around the 7.85 to 1 USD exchange rate, indicating potential selling pressure and capital outflows [4] - The pegged exchange rate system requires the Hong Kong dollar to maintain this boundary, and failure to do so could negatively impact the stock market's performance [4] - A potential future appreciation of the Hong Kong dollar could signal increased market demand and stronger capital support, which may lead to upward momentum in the stock market [4]

Group 1 - The core argument is that the recent legislative moves in the US and China regarding stablecoins are aimed at addressing debt issues and stabilizing their respective currencies while potentially shifting the burden of debt onto global users [2][4][17] - The US Senate has passed the "GENIUS Stablecoin Act," allowing tech giants to issue stablecoins fully backed by US Treasury bonds, effectively creating a digital version of the dollar [2][10] - China's Hong Kong is also advancing its own stablecoin regulations, which are pegged to the Hong Kong dollar, indicating a strategic move to bypass the SWIFT system and reduce reliance on the US dollar [2][4] Group 2 - Stablecoins are defined as a hybrid of central bank currency and blockchain technology, designed to maintain stability in value, primarily through asset-backed models [6][10] - The current market for stablecoins has seen a surge, with transaction volumes reaching $28 trillion in 2024, surpassing Bitcoin and major credit card companies [10] - The majority of stablecoins are pegged to the US dollar, with over $250 billion in reserves, positioning them as a shadow version of the dollar outside US regulatory control [10][12] Group 3 - The strategy of using stablecoins to manage debt involves converting adversaries into allies, encouraging global adoption to bolster demand for US Treasury bonds [11][12] - The potential for retail investors to indirectly purchase US Treasury bonds through stablecoins is highlighted, as they offer higher yields compared to traditional savings accounts [11][12] - The US aims to increase the total market value of stablecoins from $250 billion to $2 trillion, which could significantly alleviate the issue of unsold Treasury bonds [11][12] Group 4 - The introduction of stablecoins allows the US to issue digital currency globally, effectively collecting seigniorage while distributing inflationary pressures [12][16] - The risks associated with stablecoin issuers, including lack of transparency and potential for high-risk investments, raise concerns about their ability to absorb bad debts if US Treasury bonds falter [15][16] - The competition between US and Chinese stablecoins reflects a broader strategy to establish alternative financial systems that could mitigate the impact of US dollar fluctuations [17][19]