Group 1 - The offshore RMB to USD exchange rate has shown strong performance this year, with a cumulative increase of over 2%, reflecting multiple factors including a positive domestic economic outlook and a weaker USD index, which fell approximately 0.43% over the week [1] - The three major RMB exchange rate indices released by the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center all rose during the week of August 15, indicating a strong overall performance of the RMB against a basket of currencies [3] - The People's Bank of China has outlined future exchange rate policy directions in its report, emphasizing the importance of market forces in exchange rate formation and the need for a managed floating exchange rate system [4] Group 2 - The CFETS RMB exchange rate index reported 96.17, up 0.13% week-on-week, while the BIS and SDR currency basket indices also showed increases, indicating a synchronized rise in RMB indices [3] - The RMB's implied volatility has decreased to a near one-year low, reflecting a stable exchange rate environment, with the onshore RMB against the USD reported at 7.1831 and the offshore RMB at 7.1886 [3] - The PBOC's policy measures aim to enhance the resilience of the foreign exchange market and maintain the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level, supporting a healthy dual fluctuation pattern [4]

智通财经7月17日电，在岸人民币兑美元收盘报7.1796，较上一交易日下降20点。 ...

5月以来，人民币汇率表现持续亮眼。5月26日，离岸人民币对美元汇率持续走高，盘中升破7.17关口，最高升值至7.1614元，创下自2024年11月8日以来的新 高。 这一显著涨势引发市场广泛关注，业内认为，此轮涨势由国内外因素共同驱动，国际层面，美国主权信用评级下调、美债拍卖遇冷及关税政策争议引发市场 对其经济前景担忧，美元指数走弱为人民币提供升值空间。 国内层面，一季度GDP同比增长5.4%超预期，稳增长政策持续发力，叠加国际机构上调中国经济增速预期，增强了投资者对人民币的信心。 联储证券研究院副院长沈夏宜同样指出，离岸人民币近期上涨，表明了国际投资者对中国经济稳定发展的决心，近期已有多家国际机构纷纷调高2025年度中 国经济增速预期，汇率上行正是在这个预期的大背景下呈现。 "人民币汇率上行有显著的国内和国际因素共同助推。"国内方面，沈夏宜提到，支持消费增长、有效投资的政策不断推出，随着稳增长的各项举措逐步落 地，一季度GDP同比增长达5.4%，高于市场预期，目前看宏观经济稳定、持续增长可期；国际方面，美国关税等政策不当实施导致贸易壁垒上升，加之美 债风险飙升，其经济下行压力加大，评级机构下调美国信用评级， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive overview of the overnight market trends, important macro - economic news, and developments in various financial and commodity sectors, including futures, stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange. It also provides upcoming economic data releases and events. Summary by Directory Overnight Night - Market Trends - Domestic futures主力合约涨跌互现，烧碱、纸浆等涨超0.4%，SC原油、氧化铝等跌超1% [2] - International precious metal futures普遍收跌，COMEX黄金期货跌0.56%，COMEX白银期货跌1.39% [3] - International oil prices走弱，美油主力合约收跌1.23%，布伦特原油主力合约跌1.29% [4] - London basic metals收盘多数下跌，LME期锡、期镍、期铜均有不同程度跌幅 [5] - International agricultural product futures涨跌不一，美大豆、美玉米等有涨有跌 [6] Important Information Macro - Information - China's central bank will conduct 500 billion yuan of MLF operations on May 23, 2025 [9] - CFFEX is promoting the dual functions of financial futures [9] - SHFE will improve its product system and promote the R & D and listing of new varieties [9] - US initial jobless claims for the week ending May 17 were 227,000, a four - week low [10] - Iran vows a "devastating response" to any Israeli attack [11] - Trump's tax reform bill passed the House and is sent to the Senate, and the Senate passed a bill to end California's ban on fuel - powered vehicles [12] - Fed Governor Waller expects a rate cut in the second half of 2025 if tariffs decline [13] Energy and Chemical Futures - OPEC + is discussing a possible large - scale production increase in July [16] - China's urea production increased, and domestic soda ash inventory decreased [16] - Singapore's fuel oil, light distillate, and middle distillate inventories all rose [16] - SHFE adjusted the trading fees of natural rubber futures RU2509 contract [17] - US natural gas inventory increased, with a year - on - year decrease of 12.3% [17] - The US was not persuaded to lower the oil price cap at the G7 meeting [18] Metal Futures - Freeport Indonesia's Manyar smelter will resume production in June and reach full capacity in December [20] - CBA expects gold prices to reach $3,750 per ounce in Q4 due to rising safe - haven demand and a weakening dollar [22] - SHFE adjusted the trading fees of alumina futures AO2509 contract [22] - The global lead market had a supply shortage in March 2025 [22] Black - Series Futures - Rebar production increased, factory inventory rose, social inventory decreased, and apparent demand declined [24] - China's cumulative power generation installed capacity increased by 15.9% year - on - year as of the end of April [24] - Steel social inventory in 21 cities decreased in mid - May, with a narrowing decline [24] - Global crude steel production in April 2025 decreased by 0.3% year - on - year [25] - The average profit per ton of coke in independent coking plants varied by region [26] Agricultural Product Futures - Malaysia's palm oil production and exports are expected to increase in May [28] - Nigeria's palm oil prices may rise due to Indonesia's export tax increase [28] - Market rumors suggest the US government may grant small refinery exemptions, reducing biodiesel production and oil consumption [29] - IGC maintains the 2025/26 global soybean production forecast, with increased trade and consumption [29] - US soybean export net sales data for different periods [30] - Canada's rapeseed exports increased, and commercial inventory was reported [30] - The proportion of US soybean and corn planting areas affected by drought [30] - US cotton ON - call unpriced orders data [31] - Argentina's soybean sales accelerated in the first two weeks of May [31] Financial Market Finance - The CSRC will optimize the listing environment for technology companies and implement a more flexible IPO adjustment mechanism [33] - A - shares closed lower on Thursday, with some sectors rising and others falling [35] - Hong Kong stocks declined, but two new stocks had a strong performance in the dark - market trading [35] - CATL's H - shares will be included in MSCI indices [36] - Lenovo Group's Q4 revenue and profit increased [36] Industry - China's cumulative power generation installed capacity increased, with significant growth in solar and wind power [37] - The Cyberspace Administration of China will launch a special campaign to rectify online "black - mouth" against enterprises [37] - The world's first "Intelligent Grading of Humanoid Robots" standard was released [39] - Shanghai introduced measures to promote the high - quality development of the technology service industry [39] - A group standard for all - solid - state batteries was released [39] - TOP100 real - estate enterprises' land reserves decreased in 2024 [39] - China's narrow - sense passenger car retail sales are expected to increase in May [40] - The "JD Takeaway" platform was interviewed by the market supervision department [40] Overseas - Fed Governor Waller suggests a possible rate cut in the second half of 2025 if tariffs stabilize [41] - US manufacturing and service PMI data in May [43] - Harvard University's international student enrollment qualification was revoked [43] - US existing - home sales decreased in April, with a rising median price [43] - US initial jobless claims decreased to a four - week low [43] - Eurozone's May PMI data, with a decline in the composite PMI [44] - European Central Bank's meeting minutes and market expectations for a rate cut [44] - Japan's core machinery orders increased significantly in March [44] - Thailand's court ruled that Yingluck Shinawatra should pay compensation [46] International Stocks - US stocks closed mixed, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq recording three - day losses [47] - European stocks closed lower due to concerns about bond yields and tax reform [47] - Berkshire Hathaway's Greg Abel met with Japanese trading company executives [48] - Kraken plans to allow non - US customers to trade stocks in token form [48] Commodity - International precious metal futures declined, affected by the US fiscal deficit, inflation, and the dollar [50] - International oil prices weakened, pressured by OPEC + production increase expectations and US inventory [50] - London basic metals mostly fell, with supply - chain changes [50] - OPEC + is discussing a production increase in July [51] - SHFE adjusted the trading fees of alumina and natural rubber futures contracts [51] Bond - China's bond market continued to fluctuate, with the central bank conducting reverse - repurchase operations [52] - A member of the Bank of Japan's council believes no intervention in the bond market is necessary [54] - US Treasury yields declined across the board [54] - European bond yields showed mixed trends [54] Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose, and the central parity rate was adjusted up [55] - The RMB ranked fifth in global payment currency in April [55] - Japan's foreign - exchange official stated that exchange rates should be determined by the market [55] - The US dollar index rose, and most non - US currencies fell [57] Upcoming Economic Data and Events - Economic data release schedule including UK consumer confidence, Japan's CPI, etc. [59] - Event schedule including Trump's dinner invitation, central bank operations, and corporate earnings reports [61]

来源|华尔街见闻 近期汇率成了市场的"主角"，节后亚洲货币集体暴走，人民币大涨近600点，后续升值空间几何？ 周二，在岸人民币兑美元升至去年11月以来最高水平，日内涨近600点。 亚洲汇市过去两天剧烈波动，离岸人民币一度涨破7.20，港币连续触及强方兑换保证，台币更 是"历史级别"的暴涨，两天累计上涨超过9%。而大涨背后最直接的导火索是美国关税谈判的积极 信号。 展望后市，短期内人民币的升值的空间有多大？中长期看，亚洲货币的少见变化透露了什么信号？ 01 后续人民币的升值的空间有多大？ 民生宏观邵翔认为，既然美国大幅加征关税时人民币贬值有限，对谈判出现缓和带来的升值预期也 应保持克制，更倾向于在7.10至7.20之间。 一是央行的心理价位。从今天（5月6日）央行公布的中间价来看，人民币汇率定价还是主要锚定美 元，干预市场的意图并不明显——当前的水平可能尚未触及关键点位。而从近两年的历史经验，7.1 和7.0都是央行比较在意的水平。 二是人民币相对于其他货币的变化。央行可能需要控制人民币相对于其他货币的贬值幅度，避免新 的摩擦。以欧元为例子，当前欧元兑人民币为8.21。极端情况下，人民币相对欧元涨回4月10日前 ...

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB has shown strong performance during the May Day holiday, with a cumulative increase of 687 basis points to 7.2011 against the USD, indicating a potential upward adjustment for the onshore RMB post-holiday [1][2]. Group 1: Factors Influencing RMB Performance - Four main reasons are identified for the recent strength of the offshore RMB: 1. Record high travel data during the May Day holiday may inject more economic growth momentum 2. Positive signals from Sino-U.S. trade negotiations during the holiday 3. Increased allocation of risk-averse funds into RMB assets 4. A declining trend in the USD index, leading to a gradual release of settlement demand [4][5]. Group 2: Sino-U.S. Trade Negotiations - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce noted that the U.S. has expressed willingness to negotiate on tariff issues, suggesting a softening stance that could facilitate trade dialogue and address high tariffs, contributing to the RMB's recent strength [4][5]. - Analysts expect that the RMB's future performance will largely depend on the progress of Sino-U.S. trade talks and the movement of the USD [5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The offshore RMB market experienced lower trading activity during the holiday, which may have amplified the rise in the RMB due to short-covering by overseas institutions [4]. - The overall sentiment in the foreign exchange market has improved due to favorable news from Sino-U.S. negotiations, leading to a potential decrease in tariff pressure on the RMB [5][6]. Group 4: Broader Currency Trends - Other Asian currencies, including the Hong Kong dollar and New Taiwan dollar, have also appreciated against the USD, indicating a regional trend of currency strengthening [7][8]. - Market expectations suggest that the USD may continue to weaken, influenced by the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate decisions and ongoing trade dynamics [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent decline of the US dollar index, indicating a shift in market sentiment and potential implications for the global economy and currency markets [1][10][14]. Currency Movements - The US dollar index fell below its lowest point since December 10, with the dollar against the yen hitting a new low since October of the previous year [1][2]. - The euro reached its highest point against the dollar since December 10, trading around 1.05 USD [3]. - The offshore yuan appreciated against the dollar, with the onshore yuan rising by 143 points compared to the previous trading day [4]. Market Reactions - European markets experienced significant declines due to tariff concerns, with European bank stocks seeing their largest drop in seven months, particularly affecting Spanish banks with exposure to Mexico [5]. - US stock futures also fell, with the Nasdaq 100 index futures showing increased declines, while spot gold prices rose by 1% during the day [6]. Dollar Strength and Economic Policies - The strong dollar trend observed in the last quarter of the previous year, driven by expectations of inflation and reduced interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, has reversed, leading to a decline of approximately 2.3% in the dollar index this year [8][10]. - Analysts suggest that the factors influencing the dollar index have shifted from risk aversion and inflation expectations to economic fundamentals, with concerns over the impact of tariff policies on the US economy [11]. Future Outlook - The new US Treasury Secretary Scott P. Baer stated that the US will continue to pursue a strong dollar policy, but there are indications that the dollar index may trend downward in the long term [14]. - Analysts predict that factors suppressing the dollar will become more prominent, including ongoing fiscal deficits and a monetary policy environment favoring lower interest rates [16]. - The potential for a re-evaluation of the dollar's exchange rate during Trump's second term raises questions about the feasibility of new currency coordination mechanisms [17].

今天行情好啊，港股势如破竹，a股稳中有升，最重要的是周五，我喜欢周五大涨，涨一天算三天。 恒生科技指数今天爆升6.5%，双倍反包昨天的阴线，中概股彻底支棱起来了。还记得我上周说过中概股的合理估值是向上30%嘛，当时正好很多人套了好 几年的恒科etf刚解套，犹豫要不要走，我画的这个饼让一些老读者咬牙决定留下来再看看。 我觉得比较合理的状态就是一半信，一半怀疑，半信半疑的做交易，觉得情绪过热，股票拿着烫手了，可以少少卖一些，但大的交易节奏还是根据 中期目标来执行。这种两头不靠的交易风格容易钝化曲线，避免自己陷入巨大困境，反之那些在中国股市做的很决绝的人，炒股生涯肯定惊涛骇 浪，因为A股虽然回报率最低，但是波动率最高，它赚钱效应虽然很差，但却是最刺激的。 能够长期在这样的股市里沉淀下来，并研究出一套适合自己的交易方法论的股民，最差也算半个赌徒。 …… 昨天写到了港澳银行开卡的新闻，一些新读者还是对离岸卡概念一团浆糊。这也不怪他们，大部分中国人这辈子都没怎么单独出过国，自然也就接触不到 外汇防火墙。 其实我自己当时也在思想斗争，去年10月8日已经翻红有盈利了，就是因为不甘心没走，又滚犊子滚回粪坑了。无论港股还是a股， ...