内容提要 9月，离岸（CNH）人民币兑美元即期汇率贬值，在岸（CNY）人民币兑美元即期汇率升值；日均平均价差（CNY-CNH的绝对值）为67BP，较上月减少 13BP；CFETS人民币汇率指数、参考BIS货币篮子、参考SDR货币篮子的人民币汇率指数分别较上月末上升0.21%、上升0.20%、不变。离岸人民币债券发 行额较上月增加。CNH HIBOR隔夜、7天、3个月和1年期较上月末分别上升22BP、上升5BP、下降3BP和上升5BP。 1、中国香港和台湾地区境外人民币存款 2025年8月，香港和台湾地区离岸市场人民币存款规模较上月增加。其中，香港地区人民币存款规模为9679.56亿元，较上月增加3.2%，台湾地区人民币存款 规模为1205.91亿元，较上月减少3.0%。香港跨境贸易结算金额为9968.82亿元，较上月减少19.2%。 2、离岸人民币外汇市场 9月，离岸（CNH）人民币兑美元即期汇率贬值，在岸（CNY）人民币兑美元即期汇率升值。 即期市场：9月30日，CNH兑美元即期汇率收于7.1287，较上月末贬值0.09%；CNY兑美元即期汇率收于7.1186，较上月末升值0.20%；日均平均价差（CNY- ...

Group 1 - The core theme of the global foreign exchange market is centered around the weakening U.S. economic data and the resulting increased expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [1] - A series of weak economic indicators, including a significantly lower-than-expected non-farm payroll increase, a four-year high in initial jobless claims, and a decline in the consumer confidence index for the second consecutive month, depict a cooling labor market and weakening overall economic momentum [1] - Despite the CPI inflation data for August being slightly above expectations, market confidence in the Federal Reserve adopting a dovish policy remains strong, with a general expectation of at least a 25 basis point rate cut in the upcoming meeting [1] Group 2 - The Euro and British Pound have benefited from the general weakness of the U.S. dollar, with the Euro rising above the 1.1700 mark and the Pound testing the 1.3600 level [2] - The Australian Dollar has emerged as a standout currency, reaching a nearly 10-month high and surpassing 0.6600, driven by strong commodity prices and domestic inflation data that reduced the likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia [2] - The Chinese Yuan has shown steady appreciation against the U.S. dollar, supported by the PBOC's proactive guidance on the midpoint [2] Group 3 - Market attention is focused on the upcoming meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and the Bank of Japan (BOJ), with expectations of cautious market sentiment ahead of these significant risk events [3]

Core Insights - The offshore (CNH) and onshore (CNY) RMB appreciated against the USD in August, with the average daily price difference increasing by 18 basis points (BP) to 80 BP compared to the previous month [1][3] - The CFETS RMB exchange rate index and indices referencing the BIS and SDR currency baskets decreased by 0.20%, 0.13%, and 0.28% respectively from the end of the previous month [1][3] Offshore RMB Foreign Exchange Market - On August 29, the CNH/USD exchange rate closed at 7.1221, appreciating by 1.23% from the end of the previous month, while the CNY/USD exchange rate closed at 7.1330, appreciating by 0.84% [3] - The average daily swap point difference between CNH and CNY increased by 24 BP to 89 BP [4] Offshore RMB Bond Market - In August, 110 offshore RMB bonds were issued, with a total issuance amount of 1640.87 billion, representing an increase of 178.2% from the previous month [5] Offshore RMB Money Market - As of the end of August, the CNH HIBOR rates for overnight, 7-day, 3-month, and 1-year periods rose by 51 BP, 29 BP, 2 BP, and 10 BP respectively compared to the end of the previous month [6] - The average interest rate spread between offshore and onshore borrowing rates remained stable for overnight and 7-day periods, while the 3-month and 1-year periods saw an increase of 1 BP [6] Dynamics of Foreign Institutions in Domestic Interbank Market - As of the end of August, the total number of foreign institutions participating in the domestic interbank foreign exchange market reached 236, an increase of 3 from the previous month [7] - The number of foreign institutions and their products in the domestic interbank currency market increased by 15 to a total of 5755 [7] Trading Volume in Domestic Interbank Market - In August, the total trading volume of foreign institutions in the domestic interbank foreign exchange market was 37336.51 billion, a decrease of 6.9% [8] - The trading volume in the domestic interbank bond market for foreign institutions totaled 11573.91 billion, a decrease of 21.2% [8]

Group 1 - The offshore RMB to USD exchange rate has shown strong performance this year, with a cumulative increase of over 2%, reflecting multiple factors including a positive domestic economic outlook and a weaker USD index, which fell approximately 0.43% over the week [1] - The three major RMB exchange rate indices released by the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center all rose during the week of August 15, indicating a strong overall performance of the RMB against a basket of currencies [3] - The People's Bank of China has outlined future exchange rate policy directions in its report, emphasizing the importance of market forces in exchange rate formation and the need for a managed floating exchange rate system [4] Group 2 - The CFETS RMB exchange rate index reported 96.17, up 0.13% week-on-week, while the BIS and SDR currency basket indices also showed increases, indicating a synchronized rise in RMB indices [3] - The RMB's implied volatility has decreased to a near one-year low, reflecting a stable exchange rate environment, with the onshore RMB against the USD reported at 7.1831 and the offshore RMB at 7.1886 [3] - The PBOC's policy measures aim to enhance the resilience of the foreign exchange market and maintain the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level, supporting a healthy dual fluctuation pattern [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in the RMB to USD exchange rate and highlights concerns regarding the structural changes in demand for USD assets as a safe haven, influenced by rising political risks and uncertainties in fiscal outlooks [1]. Exchange Rate Summary - On August 14, the onshore RMB opened at 7.1722 against the USD, up from the previous day's closing of 7.1755 [1] - As of 9:30 AM, the offshore RMB was reported at 7.1760 against the USD [1] - The RMB's central parity rate against the USD was set at 7.1337, an increase of 13 points from the previous trading day [1] Dollar Index and Economic Insights - The USD index showed a downward trend, reported at 97.6432 as of 9:30 AM [1] - Gabriela Chimienti, an economist at the Asian Development Bank, noted that changes in monetary policy expectations are the main drivers of short-term fluctuations in the USD [1] - There is a concerning structural shift indicating a weakening demand for USD assets as a safe haven, attributed to rising political risks and doubts about institutional independence [1] - If this trend continues, it may reduce global demand for USD assets, exerting downward pressure on the USD and potentially increasing long-term borrowing costs in the U.S. [1]

在岸人民币兑美元收盘报7.1768，较上一交易日下降2点。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The onshore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1796, marking a decrease of 20 points from the previous trading day [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - Currency Exchange Rate - The onshore RMB depreciated against the US dollar, closing at 7.1796 [1] - This represents a decline of 20 points compared to the previous trading day [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar is driven by both domestic and international factors, with the RMB reaching its highest level since November 2024, reflecting market confidence in China's economic stability and growth prospects [1][3][4]. Domestic Factors - China's GDP grew by 5.4% year-on-year in the first quarter, exceeding expectations, which has bolstered investor confidence in the RMB [1][4]. - Continuous implementation of policies aimed at supporting consumption and effective investment has contributed to a stable macroeconomic environment [4][7]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has maintained a moderately loose monetary policy, which supports economic recovery while managing liquidity [7][8]. International Factors - The downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating by Moody's and concerns over the US fiscal deficit have weakened the US dollar, providing room for the RMB to appreciate [1][5][6]. - Market apprehensions regarding US economic prospects, exacerbated by poor results from US Treasury auctions and trade policy disputes, have led to a decline in the dollar index [1][5][6]. Market Trends - As of May 26, the offshore RMB reached a peak of 7.1614 against the dollar, marking a 0.10% increase and a 1.45% appreciation over the past 20 days [3][4]. - The dollar index experienced a drop of approximately 0.41% on the same day, indicating a new downward trend for the dollar [5]. Future Outlook - Experts suggest that the RMB may experience short-term fluctuations around a new equilibrium, influenced by US tariff policies and domestic countermeasures [1][9]. - Long-term projections indicate that as China continues to advance its high-quality development initiatives, the RMB is expected to gain a more significant role in the global monetary system [1][9][10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive overview of the overnight market trends, important macro - economic news, and developments in various financial and commodity sectors, including futures, stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange. It also provides upcoming economic data releases and events. Summary by Directory Overnight Night - Market Trends - Domestic futures主力合约涨跌互现，烧碱、纸浆等涨超0.4%，SC原油、氧化铝等跌超1% [2] - International precious metal futures普遍收跌，COMEX黄金期货跌0.56%，COMEX白银期货跌1.39% [3] - International oil prices走弱，美油主力合约收跌1.23%，布伦特原油主力合约跌1.29% [4] - London basic metals收盘多数下跌，LME期锡、期镍、期铜均有不同程度跌幅 [5] - International agricultural product futures涨跌不一，美大豆、美玉米等有涨有跌 [6] Important Information Macro - Information - China's central bank will conduct 500 billion yuan of MLF operations on May 23, 2025 [9] - CFFEX is promoting the dual functions of financial futures [9] - SHFE will improve its product system and promote the R & D and listing of new varieties [9] - US initial jobless claims for the week ending May 17 were 227,000, a four - week low [10] - Iran vows a "devastating response" to any Israeli attack [11] - Trump's tax reform bill passed the House and is sent to the Senate, and the Senate passed a bill to end California's ban on fuel - powered vehicles [12] - Fed Governor Waller expects a rate cut in the second half of 2025 if tariffs decline [13] Energy and Chemical Futures - OPEC + is discussing a possible large - scale production increase in July [16] - China's urea production increased, and domestic soda ash inventory decreased [16] - Singapore's fuel oil, light distillate, and middle distillate inventories all rose [16] - SHFE adjusted the trading fees of natural rubber futures RU2509 contract [17] - US natural gas inventory increased, with a year - on - year decrease of 12.3% [17] - The US was not persuaded to lower the oil price cap at the G7 meeting [18] Metal Futures - Freeport Indonesia's Manyar smelter will resume production in June and reach full capacity in December [20] - CBA expects gold prices to reach $3,750 per ounce in Q4 due to rising safe - haven demand and a weakening dollar [22] - SHFE adjusted the trading fees of alumina futures AO2509 contract [22] - The global lead market had a supply shortage in March 2025 [22] Black - Series Futures - Rebar production increased, factory inventory rose, social inventory decreased, and apparent demand declined [24] - China's cumulative power generation installed capacity increased by 15.9% year - on - year as of the end of April [24] - Steel social inventory in 21 cities decreased in mid - May, with a narrowing decline [24] - Global crude steel production in April 2025 decreased by 0.3% year - on - year [25] - The average profit per ton of coke in independent coking plants varied by region [26] Agricultural Product Futures - Malaysia's palm oil production and exports are expected to increase in May [28] - Nigeria's palm oil prices may rise due to Indonesia's export tax increase [28] - Market rumors suggest the US government may grant small refinery exemptions, reducing biodiesel production and oil consumption [29] - IGC maintains the 2025/26 global soybean production forecast, with increased trade and consumption [29] - US soybean export net sales data for different periods [30] - Canada's rapeseed exports increased, and commercial inventory was reported [30] - The proportion of US soybean and corn planting areas affected by drought [30] - US cotton ON - call unpriced orders data [31] - Argentina's soybean sales accelerated in the first two weeks of May [31] Financial Market Finance - The CSRC will optimize the listing environment for technology companies and implement a more flexible IPO adjustment mechanism [33] - A - shares closed lower on Thursday, with some sectors rising and others falling [35] - Hong Kong stocks declined, but two new stocks had a strong performance in the dark - market trading [35] - CATL's H - shares will be included in MSCI indices [36] - Lenovo Group's Q4 revenue and profit increased [36] Industry - China's cumulative power generation installed capacity increased, with significant growth in solar and wind power [37] - The Cyberspace Administration of China will launch a special campaign to rectify online "black - mouth" against enterprises [37] - The world's first "Intelligent Grading of Humanoid Robots" standard was released [39] - Shanghai introduced measures to promote the high - quality development of the technology service industry [39] - A group standard for all - solid - state batteries was released [39] - TOP100 real - estate enterprises' land reserves decreased in 2024 [39] - China's narrow - sense passenger car retail sales are expected to increase in May [40] - The "JD Takeaway" platform was interviewed by the market supervision department [40] Overseas - Fed Governor Waller suggests a possible rate cut in the second half of 2025 if tariffs stabilize [41] - US manufacturing and service PMI data in May [43] - Harvard University's international student enrollment qualification was revoked [43] - US existing - home sales decreased in April, with a rising median price [43] - US initial jobless claims decreased to a four - week low [43] - Eurozone's May PMI data, with a decline in the composite PMI [44] - European Central Bank's meeting minutes and market expectations for a rate cut [44] - Japan's core machinery orders increased significantly in March [44] - Thailand's court ruled that Yingluck Shinawatra should pay compensation [46] International Stocks - US stocks closed mixed, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq recording three - day losses [47] - European stocks closed lower due to concerns about bond yields and tax reform [47] - Berkshire Hathaway's Greg Abel met with Japanese trading company executives [48] - Kraken plans to allow non - US customers to trade stocks in token form [48] Commodity - International precious metal futures declined, affected by the US fiscal deficit, inflation, and the dollar [50] - International oil prices weakened, pressured by OPEC + production increase expectations and US inventory [50] - London basic metals mostly fell, with supply - chain changes [50] - OPEC + is discussing a production increase in July [51] - SHFE adjusted the trading fees of alumina and natural rubber futures contracts [51] Bond - China's bond market continued to fluctuate, with the central bank conducting reverse - repurchase operations [52] - A member of the Bank of Japan's council believes no intervention in the bond market is necessary [54] - US Treasury yields declined across the board [54] - European bond yields showed mixed trends [54] Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose, and the central parity rate was adjusted up [55] - The RMB ranked fifth in global payment currency in April [55] - Japan's foreign - exchange official stated that exchange rates should be determined by the market [55] - The US dollar index rose, and most non - US currencies fell [57] Upcoming Economic Data and Events - Economic data release schedule including UK consumer confidence, Japan's CPI, etc. [59] - Event schedule including Trump's dinner invitation, central bank operations, and corporate earnings reports [61]

Domestic News - The Ministry of Science and Technology and six other departments jointly issued policies to accelerate the construction of a technology finance system, proposing 15 measures to support technology innovation through various financial services [1] - As of the end of April, the broad money supply (M2) reached 325.17 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8% [1] - The total social financing stock was 424.0 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 8.7% [1] - In April, the sales revenue of enterprises nationwide increased by 4.3% year-on-year, reflecting the positive effects of previous policies [3] International News - The U.S. and China reached a consensus to significantly reduce bilateral tariffs, with the U.S. agreeing to cancel 91% of tariffs and suspend 24% of reciprocal tariffs, while China will also cancel 91% of counter-tariffs [2] - The Egyptian Suez Canal Authority announced a 15% discount on transit fees for large container ships starting May 15, aiming to encourage shipping companies to return to the canal [5] Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.86% to 3403.95, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.64% to 10354.22 [6] - The onshore RMB was quoted at 7.2083, down by 27 points, while the offshore RMB was at 7.1978, up by 1 point [6] - WTI crude oil prices decreased by 0.98% to $62.63, and Brent crude oil prices fell by 0.93% to $66.01 [6]