文 | 赵伟、陈达飞、李欣越、赵宇、王茂宇 联系人 | 李欣越 摘要 二、大类资产&海外事件&数据：美国三大股指集体下跌，金银价格共振上涨 美国三大股指集体下跌，金银价格共振上涨。 当周，标普500下跌0.4%；10Y美债收益率下行11bp；美元 指数下跌0.1%至97.64，离岸人民币升至6.86；布油价格上涨1.0%至72.5美元/桶，COMEX金上涨4.1%至 5280.0美元/盎司，COMEX银上涨11.1%至93.8美元/盎司。 美国1月PPI强于预期，日本1月零售大幅走强。 美国1月PPI同比2.9%，环比0.5%，服务分项对于PPI的推 动上升，美国PCE通胀面临上行压力；日本1月零售销售环比4.1%，市场预期1.5%，同比1.8%，市场预期 0.1%，机械设备、机动车零售同比分别达12.4%、9.6%。 风险提示 地缘政治冲突升级；美国经济放缓超预期；美联储超预期转"鹰" 报告正文 二、大类资产&海外事件&数据：美国三大股指集体下跌，金银价格共振上涨 当周，美国标普500行业多数上涨。公用事业、日常消费、医疗保健分别上涨2.9%、2.7%、2.1%，信息 技术、金融、可选消费分别下跌2.2%、 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月28日 多资产周报 "暴走"的汇率 核心观点 经济研究·宏观周报 | 证券分析师：邵兴宇 证券分析师：田地 | | --- | | 010-88005483 0755-81982035 | | shaoxingyu@guosen.com.cntiandi2@guosen.com.cn | S0980523070001 S0980524090003 "暴走"的汇率。春节前后，人民币汇率显著走强，特别是节后日均升 幅一度达到 239 个基点，在短短几天内连续跌破 6.85、6.80 等关键心 理关口。从原因来看，春节错位所带来的结汇需求在近期集中爆发。2026 年 1、2 月份的工作日分布不均，导致大量本该分散在年初的报关和结 汇需求，在 2 月下旬集中爆发。同时，过去 2-3 年，由于各种因素，约 有 1 万亿美元的出口创汇资金留存在海外账户。人民币汇率短时间内的 快速上涨，触发了这部分巨量资金的"避险式结汇"，形成了所谓的"羊 群效应"。此外，金融机构在处理企业的结汇套保业务时，往往处于汇 率空头地位。随着升值预期转强，机构为了对冲风险，必须在即期市场 回补人民币，这进一步放 ...

2月27日早间，离岸人民币兑美元汇率短线跳水，由涨转跌，失守6.85关口，引发市场广泛关注。 【@中国人民银行、21财经客户端、21世纪经济报道】 | < W | | | 美元兑离岸人民币 | | | Q | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | USDCNH.FX | | | | | | | | 6.85130 | | 前收 | 6.84435 | 开盘 | 6.84445 | | | +0.00695 +0.10% | | 卖出 | 6.85150 | 买入 | 6.85111 | | | 最高 | 6.85355 | 今年来 | -1.78% | 20日 | -1.39% | | | 最低 | 6.83901 | 10日 | -0.69% | 60日 | -3.11% | | | 分时 周K | 五日 | 日K | | 月K | 更多 | (0) | | 叠加 6.85355 | | | | | | 0.13% | | 684444 | | | | | | 0.00% | | 6.83525 | | | | | | -0.13% | | 17:00 ...

①美国三大股指收盘涨跌不一，道指涨0.03%报49499.2点，标普500指数跌0.54%报6908.86点，纳指跌 1.18%报22878.38点； ②大型科技股多数下跌，英伟达跌超5%，创去年4月16日以来最大单日跌幅；英特尔跌逾3%，特斯拉 跌超2%，谷歌、亚马逊跌超1%，苹果小幅下跌；奈飞涨超2%，微软、Meta小幅上涨； ③热门中概股多数下跌，盛美半导体跌超16%，百济神州跌逾8%，万国数据跌超7%，名创优品跌近 6%，百度集团跌超5%，贝壳跌逾5%；涨幅方面，大健云仓涨超33%，玉柴国际涨逾6%，希尔威金属 矿业涨超4%，小马智行涨逾4%； ④欧洲三大股指收盘全线上涨，德国DAX指数涨0.45%报25289.02点，法国CAC40指数涨0.72%报 8620.93点，英国富时100指数涨0.37%报10846.7点； ⑤国际贵金属期货普遍收跌，COMEX黄金期货跌0.47%报5201.50美元/盎司，COMEX白银期货跌3.02% 报88.86美元/盎司； ⑥美油主力合约收涨0.08%，报65.47美元/桶；布油主力合约涨0.48%，报71.03美元/桶； ⑦纽约尾盘，美元指数涨0.13%报97. ...

格隆汇2月27日｜离岸人民币兑美元短线快速走低逾100点。此前，中国人民银行决定自2026年3月2日 起，将远期售汇业务的外汇风险准备金率从20%下调至0。下一步，中国人民银行将继续引导金融机构 优化对企业汇率避险服务，保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。 ...

节后首个交易日，在岸人民币对美元再创阶段性新高。24日，在岸人民币对美元汇率小幅高开，午后强 势拉升，带动离岸人民币对美元汇率走势由贬值转为升值。 24日，在岸人民币对美元汇率盘中最高升值至6.8804，离岸人民币对美元汇率盘中最高升值至6.8760， 双双续创2023年4月28日以来升值高点。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青分析认为，首先，外部环境改善是人民币走强的重要背景。2025年11月以 来，中美经贸关系回稳，我国整体外部环境趋于缓和。 其次，美元弱势为非美货币打开升值空间。"近期美国司法部对美联储主席鲍威尔发起刑事调查，美联 储独立性受到更大冲击，美元承压；美联储新主席人选的'降息+缩表'主张尚未扭转美元颓势。"王青表 示。 第三，企业结汇需求集中释放形成季节性支撑。王青认为，随着人民币持续走强，此前出口高增累积的 结汇需求正加速释放，叠加年底年初传统结汇旺季，共同推升汇价。 此外，王青还表示，以离岸人民币领涨为标志，这段时间汇市情绪偏高，也在成为助推人民币走势偏强 的一个重要因素。 华泰期货研报指出，近期人民币表现相对稳健，并非单纯受美元波动牵引，内生定价因素占据主导。从 供需结构看，外汇供给端保持平 ...

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices experienced slight declines, with the Dow Jones down 0.13% at 50,121.4 points, the S&P 500 unchanged at 6,941.47 points, and the Nasdaq down 0.16% at 23,066.47 points [1] - Popular tech stocks showed mixed results, with Google and Microsoft down over 2%, Amazon down over 1%, while Intel rose over 2%, and Nvidia, Apple, and Tesla had gains of less than 1% [1] - Chinese concept stocks also had mixed performance, with Century Internet up over 12%, Kingsoft Cloud up 10%, and TSMC up over 3%, while NetEase fell over 4% and iQIYI dropped over 2% [1] European Market - European stock indices closed mixed, with Germany's DAX down 0.53% at 24,856.15 points, France's CAC40 down 0.18% at 8,313.24 points, and the UK's FTSE 100 up 1.14% at 10,472.11 points [1] Commodity Markets - International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 1.53% at $5,107.80 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 4.60% at $84.08 per ounce [1] - U.S. oil futures rose 1.45% to $64.89 per barrel, while Brent oil futures increased by 1.15% to $69.60 per barrel [1] - London base metals saw an overall increase, with LME nickel up 3.29% at $18,065.0 per ton, LME tin up 1.59% at $50,065.0 per ton, and LME copper up 1.00% at $13,239.0 per ton [1] Bond Markets - U.S. Treasury yields collectively rose, with the 2-year yield up 6.41 basis points at 3.512%, the 3-year yield up 5.87 basis points at 3.569%, and the 10-year yield up 2.77 basis points at 4.170% [1] - European bond yields collectively fell, with the UK 10-year yield down 3 basis points at 4.475%, France's 10-year yield down 2.6 basis points at 3.377%, and Germany's 10-year yield down 1.6 basis points at 2.790% [1]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Tech Index has fallen below the 5400-point mark, indicating a significant pullback after previous gains in sectors like internet platforms and semiconductors[1] - The market is experiencing a "cold spring" with reduced trading volumes and profit-taking behavior observed across various sectors[1] Economic Indicators - Fixed asset investment has decreased by 3.80% year-on-year[5] - Retail sales have shown a modest increase of 0.90% year-on-year[5] - Exports have risen by 6.60% year-on-year[5] - M2 money supply growth stands at 8.54%[5] External Factors - Recent U.S. economic data, including non-farm payrolls and service sector PPI, exceeded expectations, leading to a cooling of interest rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve[1] - Domestic institutions are showing a strong demand for profit-taking to manage uncertainties post-holiday[1] Asset Allocation Trends - Southbound capital has shifted from high-growth tech stocks to high-dividend assets like telecommunications and banking[1] - The short-term support level for the market is projected to be between 5100-5250 points, coinciding with the 250-day moving average[1] Commodity and Currency Movements - The latest crude oil inventory is reported at 44,684 million tons, an increase of 44,935 million tons from the previous week[3] - The dollar long position has decreased to 16,610 contracts, down by 1,335 contracts[3]

Core Viewpoint - The Asian stock markets continued their strong performance, led by Japan, following Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's election victory, which boosted investor confidence and led to significant gains in the Nikkei 225 index [1][2]. Market Performance - The Nikkei 225 index surpassed the 57,000-point mark, rising by 2.64% to reach a new historical high [6]. - The Topix index also increased by 1.08%, setting a new record [2]. - The KOSPI index in South Korea rose by 1.21%, nearing its historical closing high [4][5]. - The S&P/ASX 200 index in Australia gained 0.39%, aiming for a third consecutive day of increases [4][5]. Currency and Commodity Markets - The offshore RMB strengthened, breaking the 6.91 mark against the USD for the first time since May 2023, currently reported at 6.9094 [9]. - The US dollar index stabilized around 96.97 after a significant drop, which was the largest single-day decline in two weeks [7]. - Gold prices fell by 1% to $5,016.56 per ounce, while silver dropped by 2.5% to $81.31 per ounce [10]. - WTI crude oil futures decreased by 0.1% to $64.15 per barrel [14].

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.34% at 49,240.99 points, the S&P 500 down 0.84% at 6,917.81 points, and the Nasdaq down 1.43% at 23,255.19 points [1] - Major tech stocks mostly declined, with Microsoft and Nvidia down nearly 3%, Facebook down over 2%, Amazon down nearly 2%, Google down over 1%, and Apple down 0.2%. Tesla saw a slight increase of 0.04% [1] - Popular Chinese concept stocks mostly fell, with Bilibili down over 4%, Alibaba and Baidu down over 2%, and JD.com and iQIYI down over 1%. Xpeng Motors rose over 4%, and Li Auto increased nearly 3% [1] European Market - European stock indices closed slightly lower, with Germany's DAX down 0.07% at 24,781.38 points, France's CAC40 down 0.02% at 8,179.5 points, and the UK's FTSE 100 down 0.26% at 10,314.59 points [1] Commodity Prices - U.S. oil futures rose by 2.83%, closing at $63.90 per barrel, while Brent oil futures increased by 2.55% to $67.99 per barrel [1] - International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 6.83% at $4,970.50 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 10.27% at $84.92 per ounce [1] - Most London base metals increased, with LME tin up 7.95% at $50,295.00 per ton, LME copper up 4.02% at $13,410.00 per ton, and LME nickel up 3.38% at $17,395.00 per ton [1] Bond Market - U.S. Treasury yields showed mixed results, with the 2-year yield up 0.01 basis points at 3.570%, the 3-year yield up 0.01 basis points at 3.643%, the 5-year yield down 0.34 basis points at 3.832%, the 10-year yield down 0.59 basis points at 4.266%, and the 30-year yield down 1.76 basis points at 4.895% [1] - European bond yields collectively rose, with the UK 10-year yield up 1.1 basis points at 4.516%, France's 10-year yield up 1.7 basis points at 3.465%, Germany's 10-year yield up 2.2 basis points at 2.888%, Italy's 10-year yield up 1.7 basis points at 3.496%, and Spain's 10-year yield up 2.3 basis points at 3.254% [1]