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大类资产周报:资产配置与金融工程A股领涨全球权益,股债负相关性达高位-20250825
Guoyuan Securities· 2025-08-25 11:44
资产配置与金融工程 证券研究报告 A股领涨全球权益,股债负相关性达高位 ——大类资产周报(20250818-20250822) 分析师:朱定豪 SAC执业资格证书编码: S0020521120002 邮箱:zhudinghao@gyzq.com.cn 2025年8月25日 分析师:汤静文 SAC执业资格证书编码: S0020524060001 邮箱:tangjingwen@gyzq.com.cn 联系人:黄雯瑜 邮箱:huangwenyu@gyzq.com.cn 摘要 一、本周大类资产交易主线 本周宏观增长因子继续向上,通胀高频因子反弹态势减弱,价格压力仍然较高。A股领涨全球(上证+3.49%、创业板+5.85%), 科技成长主导,50ETF隐含波动率(IV)上升至19.78%,美股分化,道指创新高(+1.53%)而纳指回调(-0.58%),鲍威尔降息 预期提振风险偏好,国内债市调整显著(30年期国债期货跌1.43%),股债负相关性达历史高位,"跷跷板效应"凸显,外盘商品 强势(布油+2.14%、COMEX黄金+1.02%)受地缘风险与通胀对冲驱动,内盘商品普跌(南华商品指数-0.44%);美元趋弱(美 元指 ...
隔夜欧美·8月22日
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-22 00:04
Market Performance - The three major US stock indices experienced slight declines, with the S&P 500 down 0.4%, the Dow Jones down 0.34%, and the Nasdaq down 0.34% [1] - Most large tech stocks fell, including Tesla down over 1%, Facebook down more than 1%, Amazon down 0.83%, Apple down 0.49%, Nvidia down 0.24%, Microsoft down 0.13%, while Google rose 0.22% [1] Chinese Stocks - Most Chinese stocks saw gains, with Xiaoying Technology up over 16%, XPeng Motors up more than 11%, Manbang Group up over 10%, NIO up over 9%, and Tiger Brokers up over 6% [1] - However, Zhengye Technology fell approximately 30%, Yipeng Energy dropped over 23%, Canadian Solar down over 18%, Hesai Technology down about 11%, and Century Interconnect down over 8% [1] European Market - European stock indices closed mixed, with Germany's DAX index up 0.02% at 24280.64 points, France's CAC40 down 0.47% at 7935.2 points, and the UK's FTSE 100 up 0.23% at 9309.2 points [1] Commodity Prices - International precious metal futures closed mixed, with COMEX gold futures down 0.15% at $3383.5 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 0.87% at $38.1 per ounce [1] - US oil main contract rose 1.23% to $63.48 per barrel, while Brent crude main contract increased 1.14% to $67.60 per barrel [1] Currency and Bond Market - The US dollar index rose 0.41% to 98.65, while the offshore RMB against the US dollar fell by 17 basis points to 7.1833 [1] - US Treasury yields collectively increased, with the 2-year yield up 4.19 basis points to 3.781%, the 3-year yield up 3.92 basis points to 3.736%, the 5-year yield up 3.49 basis points to 3.841%, the 10-year yield up 2.92 basis points to 4.316%, and the 30-year yield up 2.14 basis points to 4.908% [1] - European bond yields generally rose, with the UK 10-year yield up 5.7 basis points to 4.727%, France's 10-year yield up 4.9 basis points to 3.460%, Germany's 10-year yield up 3.9 basis points to 2.755%, Italy's 10-year yield up 5.5 basis points to 3.578%, and Spain's 10-year yield up 4.8 basis points to 3.342% [1]
离岸人民币年内涨超2% 兑美元稳中有升 市场信心增强
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-19 02:04
Group 1 - The offshore RMB to USD exchange rate has shown strong performance this year, with a cumulative increase of over 2%, reflecting multiple factors including a positive domestic economic outlook and a weaker USD index, which fell approximately 0.43% over the week [1] - The three major RMB exchange rate indices released by the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center all rose during the week of August 15, indicating a strong overall performance of the RMB against a basket of currencies [3] - The People's Bank of China has outlined future exchange rate policy directions in its report, emphasizing the importance of market forces in exchange rate formation and the need for a managed floating exchange rate system [4] Group 2 - The CFETS RMB exchange rate index reported 96.17, up 0.13% week-on-week, while the BIS and SDR currency basket indices also showed increases, indicating a synchronized rise in RMB indices [3] - The RMB's implied volatility has decreased to a near one-year low, reflecting a stable exchange rate environment, with the onshore RMB against the USD reported at 7.1831 and the offshore RMB at 7.1886 [3] - The PBOC's policy measures aim to enhance the resilience of the foreign exchange market and maintain the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level, supporting a healthy dual fluctuation pattern [4]
借鉴国际经验,六方面构建我国离岸人民币市场
Guo Ji Jin Rong Bao· 2025-08-08 11:32
Core Viewpoint - The development of the offshore RMB market can draw lessons from Japan's successful experience in offshore finance, emphasizing a low-profile and pragmatic approach to enhance financial competitiveness and support the internationalization of the RMB [1][4]. Group 1: Japan's Offshore Financial Success - The internationalization of the yen was driven by the establishment of a robust offshore financial market, which transformed the yen from a trade settlement tool to a freely convertible currency [1]. - The revision of Japan's Foreign Exchange and Foreign Trade Act in 1998 eliminated residual foreign exchange controls, significantly enhancing the linkage between offshore and onshore markets [1]. - The offshore yen lending rate (Euroyen LIBOR) and Tokyo interbank offered rate (TIBOR) spread narrowed to within 5 basis points, creating a mechanism for "offshore pricing - onshore transmission" [1]. Group 2: Functions of Offshore Financial Markets - Offshore financial markets serve as a key platform for the three core functions of currency internationalization: payment, investment, and reserve [2]. - Japan's economic layout in South America, particularly in Brazil and Argentina, exemplifies the deep synergy between offshore finance and industrial investment [2]. Group 3: Mechanisms in South America - In Brazil, Japan's investment reached $78 billion in 2023, utilizing a profit repatriation mechanism that aligns local regulations with offshore financial markets [2]. - In Argentina, despite capital controls, Japanese companies established efficient funding channels through "offshore node interconnection" [2]. Group 4: Low-Profile Strategy and Benefits - Japan's low-profile approach in offshore finance has led to macro-financial stability, enhanced micro-enterprise competitiveness, and geopolitical adaptability [3]. - The offshore market acted as a buffer against external shocks, stabilizing foreign exchange reserves and mitigating speculative pressures [3]. - The low-profile development provided Japanese companies in South America with operational advantages, including lower financing costs and improved tax efficiency [3]. Group 5: Lessons for China's Offshore RMB Market - China's offshore RMB market should transition from "policy-driven" to "institution-driven" and "market-driven," focusing on quality competition rather than scale [5]. - The establishment of a "offshore RMB entity label" system can ensure that offshore funds are closely tied to real trade and investment [5]. - A cross-border "trade-logistics-fund flow" big data verification platform can be developed to prevent false trade and arbitrage [5]. Group 6: Asset Pooling and Risk Isolation - Creating a "RMB-foreign exchange dual fund pool" in pilot areas can enhance the efficiency of fund utilization [6]. - The establishment of a multi-tiered RMB safe asset system through regular issuance of offshore central bank bills and government bonds can attract global investors [6]. - Implementing an "electronic fence" for risk isolation can prevent external shocks from affecting onshore markets [6]. Group 7: Tax Neutrality and Legal Framework - A tax system that is neutral and transparent, similar to Japan's, can reduce policy arbitrage in offshore RMB business [7]. - Establishing an "offshore RMB international arbitration center" can ensure that arbitration rules align with international practices while maintaining control over adjudication [7]. Group 8: Gradual and Low-Profile Approach - A gradual and low-profile strategy should be adopted to allow for institutional adjustments without rushing to create an "international benchmark" [8]. - The focus should be on improving foundational systems such as offshore account functions and tax policies in pilot free trade zones [9].
隔夜欧美·7月26日
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-26 00:21
Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices experienced slight gains, with the Dow Jones up 0.47% at 44,901.92 points, the S&P 500 up 0.4% at 6,388.64 points, and the Nasdaq up 0.24% at 21,108.32 points [1] - Major tech stocks showed mixed results, with Tesla rising over 3%, Microsoft up 0.55%, Google up 0.53%, Apple up 0.06%, while Nvidia fell 0.14%, Facebook down 0.3%, and Amazon down 0.34% [1] - Chinese concept stocks mostly declined, with Luokung down over 12%, Xiaoying Technology down over 10%, and Daqo New Energy down about 7%, while Pony.ai rose nearly 5% and Waterdrop Inc. rose nearly 4% [1] - European major indices closed mixed, with Germany's DAX down 0.32% at 24,217.5 points, France's CAC40 up 0.21% at 7,834.58 points, and the UK's FTSE 100 down 0.2% at 9,120.31 points [1] Commodity Prices - International precious metal futures generally declined, with COMEX gold futures down 1.04% at $3,338.50 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 2.29% at $38.33 per ounce [1] - U.S. oil main contract fell 1.45% to $65.07 per barrel, with a weekly decline of 1.48%; Brent crude oil main contract fell 1.11% to $67.60 per barrel, with a weekly decline of 2.42% [1] - London base metals all fell, with LME tin down 1.40% at $34,140.00 per ton, LME nickel down 1.29% at $15,265.00 per ton, LME copper down 0.82% at $9,796.00 per ton, LME aluminum down 0.60% at $2,631.00 per ton, LME zinc down 0.51% at $2,829.00 per ton, and LME lead down 0.10% at $2,020.50 per ton [1] Bond Yields - U.S. Treasury yields were mixed, with the 2-year yield up 0.91 basis points at 3.928%, the 3-year yield up 0.27 basis points at 3.872%, the 5-year yield down 1.23 basis points at 3.948%, the 10-year yield down 0.99 basis points at 4.388%, and the 30-year yield down 1.03 basis points at 4.930% [1] - European bond yields generally rose, with the UK 10-year yield up 1.3 basis points at 4.633%, France's 10-year yield up 0.7 basis points at 3.383%, Germany's 10-year yield up 1.4 basis points at 2.713%, Italy's 10-year yield up 0.2 basis points at 3.550%, and Spain's 10-year yield up 0.8 basis points at 3.311% [1]
巨富金业:贸易乐观与经济数据双重施压,聚焦耐用品订单指引
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-25 06:45
Core Viewpoint - The gold price continues to decline due to reduced safe-haven demand driven by optimistic trade sentiments between the US and EU, alongside strong economic data and monetary policy expectations [3][4][10] Group 1: Trade Optimism and Safe-Haven Demand - Market expectations for a breakthrough in US-EU trade negotiations have diminished the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset, with a potential agreement to lower tariffs to 15% expected by August 1 [3] - The announcement of a €93 billion tariff plan by EU member states against US products has not deterred optimism regarding a trade deal, leading to a significant drop in gold prices from a five-week high of $3438 [3] - The European Central Bank's decision to maintain interest rates has reinforced expectations of a weak Eurozone economy, indirectly supporting a stronger US dollar and pressuring gold prices [3] Group 2: Economic Data and Monetary Policy Pressure - Strong US economic data, including a 15.5% increase in durable goods orders (excluding defense), has contributed to a hawkish outlook for Federal Reserve monetary policy, with a 94% probability of maintaining interest rates in July [4] - The rise in the 10-year US Treasury yield to 4.384% and an increase in real yields to 1.994% have raised the opportunity cost of holding gold [4] - The US dollar index has strengthened by 0.18% to 97.62, further diminishing the attractiveness of gold priced in dollars [4] Group 3: Technical Analysis and Institutional Withdrawal - Gold has fallen below the critical psychological level of $3400, with potential further declines towards $3350 if it remains below this threshold [7] - The RSI indicator shows a weakening of buyer dominance, indicating a slowdown in momentum [7] - Institutional investors are accelerating their exit from gold, as evidenced by a reduction in COMEX non-commercial net long positions by 3200 contracts to 122,000 and a decrease in SPDR Gold ETF holdings to a two-month low of 954.8 tons [9] Group 4: Geopolitical Risks and Data Expectations - Despite trade and economic factors dominating the market, geopolitical risks remain a concern, with potential events that could temporarily boost safe-haven demand [10] - The market is awaiting the release of US July durable goods orders data, with expectations of a drop from 16.4% in May to 10.8%, which could further reinforce a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve if the data exceeds expectations [10] - The current gold market faces dual pressures from trade optimism and economic data, with increased risks of downward movement below the $3350 support level [10]
隔夜欧美·7月19日
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-18 23:46
Market Performance - The three major US stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones down 0.32% at 44,342.19 points, the S&P 500 down 0.01% at 6,296.79 points, and the Nasdaq up 0.05% at 20,895.66 points [1] - Major tech stocks showed mixed results, with Netflix down over 5% and Amazon up over 1% [1] - Most popular Chinese concept stocks rose, with JD.com up over 3%, Alibaba, Bilibili, and NetEase up over 2%, and Li Auto up over 1% [1] European Market Performance - European stock indices closed mixed, with Germany's DAX down 0.33% at 24,289.51 points, France's CAC40 up 0.01% at 7,822.67 points, and the UK's FTSE 100 up 0.22% at 8,992.12 points [1] Commodity Prices - International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 0.30% at $3,355.50 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 0.32% at $38.43 per ounce [1] - International oil prices slightly declined, with the main US oil contract down 0.30% at $66.03 per barrel and Brent crude down 0.42% at $69.23 per barrel [1] Currency and Bond Market - The US dollar index fell 0.18% to 98.46, while the offshore RMB against the US dollar rose by 37 basis points to 7.1810 [1] - US Treasury yields fell across the board, with the 2-year yield down 3.32 basis points at 3.8628%, the 3-year yield down 3.92 basis points at 3.8329%, the 5-year yield down 4.92 basis points at 3.9395%, the 10-year yield down 3.98 basis points at 4.4095%, and the 30-year yield down 2.49 basis points at 4.9823% [1] - European bond yields collectively rose, with the UK 10-year yield up 1.9 basis points at 4.672%, France's 10-year yield up 1.9 basis points at 3.396%, Germany's 10-year yield up 2.1 basis points at 2.693%, Italy's 10-year yield up 1.6 basis points at 3.548%, and Spain's 10-year yield up 2 basis points at 3.308% [1]
隔夜欧美·7月18日
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-18 00:00
Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.52%, the S&P 500 up 0.54%, and the Nasdaq up 0.74% [1] - Major tech stocks mostly rose, with Microsoft up over 1%, Nvidia up nearly 1%, Google up 0.33%, and Amazon up 0.31%. However, Apple fell 0.07%, Facebook down 0.21%, and Tesla down 0.7% [1] - Popular Chinese concept stocks mostly increased, with Linklogis up over 10%, NIO up over 6%, Li Auto up over 6%, Legend Biotech up nearly 6%, and Daqo New Energy up over 5%. On the downside, Hesai Technology fell over 8%, Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics down over 2%, BOSS Zhipin down over 1%, and Trip.com down over 1% [1] - European stock indices also closed higher, with Germany's DAX up 1.51%, France's CAC40 up 1.29%, and the UK's FTSE 100 up 0.52% [1] Commodity Prices - International precious metal futures closed mixed, with COMEX gold futures down 0.41% at $3345.40 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures rose 0.83% to $38.44 per ounce [1] - International oil prices surged, with the main U.S. oil contract up 1.72% at $66.31 per barrel, and the main Brent crude contract up 1.55% at $69.58 per barrel [1] - London base metals closed higher, with LME zinc up 0.98% at $2737.50 per ton, LME tin up 0.83% at $33,070.00 per ton, and LME copper up 0.45% at $9678.00 per ton [1] Bond Yields - U.S. Treasury yields were mixed, with the 2-year yield up 1.06 basis points at 3.896%, the 3-year yield up 0.83 basis points at 3.872%, and the 5-year yield up 0.01 basis points at 3.989%. The 10-year yield fell 0.80 basis points to 4.449%, while the 30-year yield decreased by 0.53 basis points to 5.007% [1] - European bond yields mostly declined, with Germany's 10-year yield down 1.3 basis points at 2.672%, Italy's 10-year yield down 0.8 basis points at 3.532%, and Spain's 10-year yield down 0.6 basis points at 3.288%. The UK's 10-year yield rose by 1.5 basis points to 4.653%, while France's 10-year yield remained unchanged at 3.377% [1]
隔夜欧美·7月15日
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-14 23:50
Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices experienced slight gains, with the Dow Jones up 0.2%, the S&P 500 up 0.14%, and the Nasdaq up 0.27% [1] - Major tech stocks showed mixed results, with Tesla rising over 1%, Google up 0.76%, Facebook up 0.48%, Amazon up 0.3%, while Microsoft fell 0.06%, Nvidia down 0.52%, and Apple down over 1% [1] - Chinese concept stocks mostly rose, with Kingsoft Cloud up nearly 10%, NIO up over 7%, Tencent Music up over 4%, Bilibili up over 4%, and Li Auto up over 3%. In contrast, New Oriental fell over 2% and Pinduoduo dropped over 2% [1] European Market - European stock indices closed mixed, with Germany's DAX down 0.39%, France's CAC40 down 0.27%, and the UK's FTSE 100 up 0.64% [1] Commodity Prices - International precious metal futures generally declined, with COMEX gold futures down 0.35% at $3352.10 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 1.40% at $38.41 per ounce [1] - International oil prices fell, with the main U.S. oil contract down 2.37% at $66.83 per barrel and Brent crude down 1.82% at $69.08 per barrel [1] Currency and Bond Market - The U.S. dollar index rose 0.24% to 98.11, while the offshore RMB against the U.S. dollar increased by 14 basis points to 7.1722 [1] - U.S. Treasury yields collectively rose, with the 2-year yield up 0.99 basis points at 3.896%, the 3-year yield up 1.67 basis points at 3.869%, the 5-year yield up 1.58 basis points at 3.985%, the 10-year yield up 2.40 basis points at 4.433%, and the 30-year yield up 3.21 basis points at 4.978% [1] - European bond yields mostly increased, with the UK 10-year yield down 2.2 basis points at 4.598%, while France's 10-year yield rose 2 basis points to 3.430%, Germany's 10-year yield up 0.6 basis points to 2.727%, Italy's 10-year yield up 2.2 basis points to 3.590%, and Spain's 10-year yield up 1.1 basis points to 3.339% [1]
隔夜欧美·6月28日
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-27 23:46
Market Performance - The three major US stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 1% at 43819.27 points, the S&P 500 up 0.52% at 6173.07 points, and the Nasdaq up 0.52% at 20273.46 points [1] - Major US tech stocks mostly rose, with Google up over 2%, Amazon up over 2%, Nvidia up over 1%, Facebook up over 1%, Apple up 0.04%, while Microsoft fell 0.3% and Tesla dropped 0.61% [1] - Chinese concept stocks showed mixed results, with Century Internet up over 18%, Daqo New Energy up over 4%, JinkoSolar up over 4%, and Bilibili up over 2%. On the downside, Brain Regen fell over 13%, Pony.ai dropped over 6%, Tiger Brokers fell over 5%, and BeiGene dropped over 5% [1] - European stock indices all closed higher, with Germany's DAX up 1.62% at 24033.22 points, France's CAC40 up 1.78% at 7691.55 points, and the UK's FTSE 100 up 0.72% at 8798.91 points [1] Commodity and Currency Markets - International precious metal futures generally fell, with COMEX gold futures down 1.85% at $3286.10 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 2.06% at $36.17 per ounce [1] - US oil main contract fell 0.26% to $65.07 per barrel, while Brent oil main contract dropped 0.52% to $66.34 per barrel [1] - The US dollar index fell 0.04% to 97.26, and the offshore RMB against the US dollar fell by 92 basis points to 7.1729 [1] - London base metals showed mixed results, with LME tin down 0.55% at $33565.00 per ton (up 2.7% for the week), LME aluminum up 0.45% at $2595.00 per ton (up 1.78% for the week), LME zinc up 0.38% at $2778.50 per ton (up 5.63% for the week), LME copper down 0.21% at $9879.00 per ton (up 2.55% for the week), LME nickel down 0.12% at $15190.00 per ton (up 1.19% for the week), and LME lead up 0.15% at $2041.50 per ton (up 2.48% for the week) [1] Bond Markets - US Treasury yields collectively rose, with the 2-year yield up 3.47 basis points at 3.746%, the 3-year yield up 3.30 basis points at 3.714%, the 5-year yield up 3.28 basis points at 3.827%, the 10-year yield up 3.13 basis points at 4.271%, and the 30-year yield up 3.19 basis points at 4.831% [1] - European bond yields generally rose, with the UK 10-year yield up 3.2 basis points at 4.502%, France's 10-year yield up 1.7 basis points at 3.262%, Germany's 10-year yield up 2.1 basis points at 2.587%, Italy's 10-year yield up 2.1 basis points at 3.470%, and Spain's 10-year yield up 1.4 basis points at 3.221% [1]