内容提要 9月，离岸（CNH）人民币兑美元即期汇率贬值，在岸（CNY）人民币兑美元即期汇率升值；日均平均价差（CNY-CNH的绝对值）为67BP，较上月减少 13BP；CFETS人民币汇率指数、参考BIS货币篮子、参考SDR货币篮子的人民币汇率指数分别较上月末上升0.21%、上升0.20%、不变。离岸人民币债券发 行额较上月增加。CNH HIBOR隔夜、7天、3个月和1年期较上月末分别上升22BP、上升5BP、下降3BP和上升5BP。 1、中国香港和台湾地区境外人民币存款 2025年8月，香港和台湾地区离岸市场人民币存款规模较上月增加。其中，香港地区人民币存款规模为9679.56亿元，较上月增加3.2%，台湾地区人民币存款 规模为1205.91亿元，较上月减少3.0%。香港跨境贸易结算金额为9968.82亿元，较上月减少19.2%。 2、离岸人民币外汇市场 9月，离岸（CNH）人民币兑美元即期汇率贬值，在岸（CNY）人民币兑美元即期汇率升值。 即期市场：9月30日，CNH兑美元即期汇率收于7.1287，较上月末贬值0.09%；CNY兑美元即期汇率收于7.1186，较上月末升值0.20%；日均平均价差（CNY- ...

来源：市场资讯 （来源：一德期货） | 标的品种 | 9月30日 | 10月9日 | 假期涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 15:00报价 | 07:00报价 | | | 马棕油 | 4369 | 4546 | 4.05% | | COMEX黄金 | 3883.9 | 4039.9 | 4.02% | | COMEX铜 | 4.8810 | 5.0670 | 3.81% | | 德DAX 30 | 23775.12 | 24597.13 | 3.46% | | CBOT豆油 | 49.67 | 51.34 | 3.36% | | LmeS铝 | 2664.5 | 2750.5 | 3.23% | | LmeS锡 | 35125 | 36250 | 3.20% | | LmeS铜 | 10375.0 | 10701.0 | 3.14% | | COMEX白银 | 46.965 | 48.250 | 2.74% | | 美天然气 | 3.253 | 3.341 | 2.71% | | LmeS锌 | 2917.5 | 2995.0 | 2.66% | | CBOT大豆 | 1 ...

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices experienced slight declines, with the Dow Jones down 0.37%, the S&P 500 down 0.28%, and the Nasdaq down 0.33% [1] - Popular tech stocks showed mixed results, with Intel rising over 6% and Tesla nearly 4%, while Google fell over 1% and Nvidia and Apple dropped nearly 1% [1] - Chinese concept stocks saw a general increase, with Alibaba and GDS Holdings rising over 8%, Baidu and JD.com up over 5%, and NIO up over 2% [1] - European stock indices closed mixed, with Germany's DAX up 0.23%, France's CAC40 down 0.57%, and the UK's FTSE 100 up 0.29% [1] Commodity Prices - International precious metal futures generally declined, with COMEX gold futures down 1.24% at $3768.5 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 1.11% at $44.115 per ounce [1] - International oil prices surged, with the main U.S. oil contract up 2.21% at $64.81 per barrel and Brent crude up 1.93% at $68.26 per barrel [1] Currency and Debt Markets - The U.S. dollar index rose 0.65% to 97.86, while the offshore RMB against the U.S. dollar fell by 243 basis points to 7.1379 [1] - U.S. Treasury yields collectively increased, with the 2-year yield up 3.48 basis points at 3.608%, the 3-year yield up 5.06 basis points at 3.607%, the 5-year yield up 5.95 basis points at 3.723%, the 10-year yield up 4.24 basis points at 4.149%, and the 30-year yield up 3.63 basis points at 4.752% [1] - European bond yields were mixed, with the UK 10-year yield down 1 basis point at 4.667%, France's 10-year yield up 0.5 basis points at 3.567%, Germany's 10-year yield down 0.1 basis points at 2.746%, Italy's 10-year yield up 2.1 basis points at 3.562%, and Spain's 10-year yield up 0.4 basis points at 3.297% [1]

周一开盘，市场给出了三个耐人寻味的镜头： - 金价"开门就冲"，并未回吐上周五的任何涨幅，而是继续向历史高位挺进； 来源：华尔街情报圈 美股虽然跌幅不大（谨慎）——但"跳空低开"本身就是态度。市场在上周走得有点摇摆后，现在先给了个下行起点，暗示投资者宁愿先防守，观望后续数 据与美联储官员讲话。 三股力量并行：避险、信心、谨慎。方向未统一，却都在酝酿大行情。正如我们独家编制的《恐惧与贪婪指数》所暗示的那样：A股、美股、黄金、人民 币均出现重大信号，很可能出现大行情，但方向不一致。 某一时刻，市场或将迎来一次集体表态。 想看我们对全球市场更深刻的解读，可订阅《环球市场策略：轰隆隆，顶峰狂欢》，本周真正的考验，是谁能笑到最后。 报告亮点： - 美股期货"跳空低开"； - 离岸人民币"一脚跳涨"，从上周五的7.118，开盘直接跳涨到7.10。而同一时间，美元指数则没有什么波动。 第一，今日开盘市场的"跳涨"、"跳空"、"直冲云霄"几个动作，反映了市场的躁动。经历了上周方向不明，低调行事后，投资者似乎准备大举押注。 第二，今天的开盘格局就像"三个镜头"，各大市场讲述着不同的故事： 黄金开盘即涨（避险）——这个动作很重要 ...

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices reached new closing highs, with the Dow Jones up 0.37%, the S&P 500 up 0.49%, and the Nasdaq up 0.72% [1] - Major tech stocks saw gains, with Oracle rising over 4%, Apple up over 3%, and Tesla up over 2% [1] - Popular Chinese concept stocks showed mixed results, with Pinduoduo down over 2%, Li Auto and iQIYI down over 1%, while Tiger Brokers and Futu Holdings rose over 2%, and XPeng Motors up over 1% [1] European Market - European stock indices closed slightly lower, with Germany's DAX down 0.15% at 23639.41 points, France's CAC40 down 0.01% at 7853.59 points, and the UK's FTSE 100 down 0.12% at 9216.67 points [1] Commodity Prices - International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 1.12% at $3719.4 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 2.96% at $43.365 per ounce [1] - International oil prices weakened, with the main U.S. oil contract down 1.42% at $62.36 per barrel and Brent crude down 1.3% at $66.05 per barrel [1] Currency and Debt Markets - The U.S. dollar index rose 0.30% to 97.66, while the offshore RMB fell 109 basis points to 7.1196 against the U.S. dollar [1] - U.S. Treasury yields collectively increased, with the 2-year yield up 1.22 basis points at 3.567%, the 10-year yield up 2.49 basis points at 4.125%, and the 30-year yield up 2.25 basis points at 4.743% [1] - European bond yields generally rose, with the UK 10-year yield up 3.9 basis points at 4.714%, France's 10-year yield up 1.6 basis points at 3.552%, and Germany's 10-year yield up 2.2 basis points at 2.744% [1]

②大型科技股涨跌互现，英伟达跌超2%，亚马逊跌超1%，谷歌跌0.65%，脸书跌0.42%，特斯拉涨逾 1%，苹果涨0.35%，微软涨0.19%； ③中概股多数上涨，百度集团涨超11%，盛美半导体涨逾9%，万国数据涨超7%，奇富科技涨超6%，陆 控涨逾6%，蔚来涨近6%。禾赛科技跌超3%，晶科能源跌近3%，中通快递跌逾1%，涂鸦智能跌超1%； ①美国三大股指收盘涨跌不一，道指涨0.57%报46018.32点，标普500指数跌0.1%报6600.35点，纳指跌 0.33%报22261.33点； ④欧洲三大股指收盘涨跌不一，德国DAX指数涨0.13%报23359.18点，法国CAC40指数跌0.4%报7786.98 点，英国富时100指数涨0.14%报9208.37点； ⑤国际贵金属期货普遍收跌，COMEX黄金期货跌0.82%报3694.60美元/盎司，COMEX白银期货跌2.15% 报41.99美元/盎司； ⑥国际油价小幅下跌，美油主力合约收跌0.85%，报63.97美元/桶；布伦特原油主力合约跌0.82%，报 67.91美元/桶； ⑦纽约尾盘，美元指数涨0.40%报97.03，离岸人民币对美元上涨18个基点报7 ...

Group 1 - The core theme of the global foreign exchange market is centered around the weakening U.S. economic data and the resulting increased expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [1] - A series of weak economic indicators, including a significantly lower-than-expected non-farm payroll increase, a four-year high in initial jobless claims, and a decline in the consumer confidence index for the second consecutive month, depict a cooling labor market and weakening overall economic momentum [1] - Despite the CPI inflation data for August being slightly above expectations, market confidence in the Federal Reserve adopting a dovish policy remains strong, with a general expectation of at least a 25 basis point rate cut in the upcoming meeting [1] Group 2 - The Euro and British Pound have benefited from the general weakness of the U.S. dollar, with the Euro rising above the 1.1700 mark and the Pound testing the 1.3600 level [2] - The Australian Dollar has emerged as a standout currency, reaching a nearly 10-month high and surpassing 0.6600, driven by strong commodity prices and domestic inflation data that reduced the likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia [2] - The Chinese Yuan has shown steady appreciation against the U.S. dollar, supported by the PBOC's proactive guidance on the midpoint [2] Group 3 - Market attention is focused on the upcoming meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and the Bank of Japan (BOJ), with expectations of cautious market sentiment ahead of these significant risk events [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the U.S. non-farm payroll data for August significantly underperformed expectations, with only 22,000 jobs added compared to the forecast of 75,000, and the unemployment rate rising to a new high of 4.3% [1][6][8] - The employment situation across most sectors has deteriorated, particularly in cyclical industries, which saw a reduction of 48,000 jobs, a decline that expanded by 26,000 from the previous month [1][6][10] - The private sector added only 38,000 jobs in August, which is also below expectations, while the government sector saw a decrease of 16,000 jobs [1][6][10] Group 2 - The labor market is currently characterized by a fragile balance of weak supply and demand, with the unemployment rate expected to continue rising slightly [2][14][23] - The credibility of the August non-farm data is questioned due to a low response rate of 56.7%, the lowest in recent years, and historical trends suggest that these figures may be revised upwards in subsequent months [2][14][20] - Leading indicators, such as small business hiring plans and unemployment claims, suggest that the labor market still possesses some resilience, indicating that a significant deterioration is not imminent [2][14][23] Group 3 - Following the release of the non-farm data, market sentiment shifted from "rate cut trading" to "recession trading," with expectations for a 50 basis point rate cut in September rising to 11% [3][6][14] - The market anticipates two rate cuts by the end of the year, although the likelihood of three cuts hinges on the unemployment rate reaching 4.6% or higher, which remains a low probability scenario [3][6][14] - The current equilibrium level of job additions in the U.S. labor market is projected to fall to between 30,000 and 80,000 jobs per month, with the unemployment rate likely to rise if job additions remain at the low level of 22,000 [2][23][32]

Core Insights - The offshore (CNH) and onshore (CNY) RMB appreciated against the USD in August, with the average daily price difference increasing by 18 basis points (BP) to 80 BP compared to the previous month [1][3] - The CFETS RMB exchange rate index and indices referencing the BIS and SDR currency baskets decreased by 0.20%, 0.13%, and 0.28% respectively from the end of the previous month [1][3] Offshore RMB Foreign Exchange Market - On August 29, the CNH/USD exchange rate closed at 7.1221, appreciating by 1.23% from the end of the previous month, while the CNY/USD exchange rate closed at 7.1330, appreciating by 0.84% [3] - The average daily swap point difference between CNH and CNY increased by 24 BP to 89 BP [4] Offshore RMB Bond Market - In August, 110 offshore RMB bonds were issued, with a total issuance amount of 1640.87 billion, representing an increase of 178.2% from the previous month [5] Offshore RMB Money Market - As of the end of August, the CNH HIBOR rates for overnight, 7-day, 3-month, and 1-year periods rose by 51 BP, 29 BP, 2 BP, and 10 BP respectively compared to the end of the previous month [6] - The average interest rate spread between offshore and onshore borrowing rates remained stable for overnight and 7-day periods, while the 3-month and 1-year periods saw an increase of 1 BP [6] Dynamics of Foreign Institutions in Domestic Interbank Market - As of the end of August, the total number of foreign institutions participating in the domestic interbank foreign exchange market reached 236, an increase of 3 from the previous month [7] - The number of foreign institutions and their products in the domestic interbank currency market increased by 15 to a total of 5755 [7] Trading Volume in Domestic Interbank Market - In August, the total trading volume of foreign institutions in the domestic interbank foreign exchange market was 37336.51 billion, a decrease of 6.9% [8] - The trading volume in the domestic interbank bond market for foreign institutions totaled 11573.91 billion, a decrease of 21.2% [8]

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones down 0.05%, the S&P 500 up 0.51%, and the Nasdaq up 1.02% [1] - Major tech stocks saw gains, with Google rising over 9% and Apple increasing more than 3% [1] - Popular Chinese concept stocks had mixed results, with Fangdd down nearly 15%, NIO down nearly 4%, Xpeng down over 2%, and Alibaba down over 1%. Conversely, Pinduoduo rose over 2% and iQIYI increased over 1% [1] European Market - All three major European stock indices closed higher, with Germany's DAX up 0.46%, France's CAC40 up 0.86%, and the UK's FTSE 100 up 0.67% [1] Commodity Prices - International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 0.77% at $3,619.70 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 0.52% at $41.81 per ounce [1] - U.S. oil main contract fell 2.77% to $63.77 per barrel, while Brent crude main contract dropped 2.53% to $67.39 per barrel [1] Currency and Debt Markets - The U.S. dollar index fell 0.17% to 98.15, and the offshore RMB against the U.S. dollar decreased by 12 basis points to 7.1397 [1] - U.S. Treasury yields collectively declined, with the 2-year yield down 2.68 basis points to 3.610%, the 3-year yield down 2.83 basis points to 3.579%, the 5-year yield down 3.12 basis points to 3.691%, the 10-year yield down 4.27 basis points to 4.217%, and the 30-year yield down 6.15 basis points to 4.897% [1] - European bond yields also fell, with the UK 10-year yield down 5.2 basis points to 4.746%, France's 10-year yield down 4.2 basis points to 3.538%, Germany's 10-year yield down 4.6 basis points to 2.737%, Italy's 10-year yield down 6.2 basis points to 3.611%, and Spain's 10-year yield down 5.2 basis points to 3.344% [1]