1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report suggests that under the current circumstances, the performance of Hong Kong stocks may continue to outperform that of US stocks, showing an oscillatory upward trend. The main reasons are that the weakening of the US dollar's credit is naturally beneficial to non - US assets, and Hong Kong stocks, mainly composed of Chinese assets, are expected to benefit; additionally, Hong Kong stocks have a long - term low valuation level and better elasticity, and the improvement of domestic demand may become a new investment theme, attracting more incremental capital [3][9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Investment Views 3.1.1 Market Summary - Last week, the Hang Seng Index returned to an oscillatory market, with a slight decline of 0.36% at the weekend close. The raw materials sector performed well, with a weekly increase of 4.1% and a year - to - date increase of 17.82%, leading all primary industry sectors in Hong Kong stocks. Among secondary sectors, durable consumer goods rebounded with a weekly increase of 19.7%, followed by the steel and non - ferrous sectors with increases of 6.6% and 5.8% respectively. Sectors such as pharmaceuticals and software sales were relatively weak. The overall risk appetite of the Hong Kong stock market remained stable, with market hotspots concentrated in commodities and raw materials sectors such as non - ferrous metals and energy, while high - valuation sectors oscillated. In terms of funds, the share of the Tracker Fund of Hong Kong increased by 1.74%, the share of the ETFs that short the Hang Seng Index and the Technology Index by double fell by 5.15%, and the net inflow of Southbound Stock Connect funds was HK$23.523 billion, indicating a recovery in the scale of inflow funds [1][6]. 3.1.2 Market Environment - Last week, silver continued to outperform all major asset classes, with a year - to - date increase of 46%, significantly outperforming global equity assets. The Brazilian and Latin American markets performed well due to the upward cycle of global commodities, outperforming other regional equity assets year - to - date. The Hang Seng Index underperformed the A - share market again last week, and recently, the Hong Kong and US stock markets showed similar oscillatory trends, indicating a lack of short - term catalysts for the upward movement of stock indices under the backdrop of the Fed's suspension of interest rate cuts. The US released its latest economic data, with the final annualized quarter - on - quarter GDP growth rate in Q3 2025 reaching 4.4%, higher than the initial value of 4.3% and the fastest growth rate in nearly two years. The core PCE price index in November increased by 2.8% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, in line with expectations, showing that the US economy is running smoothly and the possibility of accelerated inflation is low. In China, the National Bureau of Statistics released the latest economic data, showing that the GDP growth rate in 2025 was 5%, with a Q4 growth rate of 4.5% and a Q3 growth rate of 4.8%. The year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value of large - scale industries in December was 5.2%, and the cumulative growth rate for the whole year was 5.9%. The year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales in December was 0.9%, and the cumulative growth rate for the year was 3.7%. In 2025, China's economy showed a strong transformation of new and old driving forces, with economic growth concentrated in high - end manufacturing such as chips and industrial robots, and the growth rate of consumption slowed down after the subsidy withdrawal in the second half of the year. The growth rate of fixed - asset investment continued to decline, indicating the continuous impact of the real - estate market adjustment [7][8]. 3.1.3 Views on Hong Kong Stocks - Hong Kong stocks have shown an obvious structural market since January this year, with significant market differentiation. The raw materials industry represented by non - ferrous metals has performed strongly, with a year - to - date increase of over 17%, and its price - to - earnings ratio is gradually approaching that of the medical industry, which has the highest price - to - earnings ratio in Hong Kong stocks. On the other hand, the technology sector mainly composed of Internet platforms has performed weakly, underperforming the Hang Seng Index since the beginning of the year, similar to traditional defensive sectors such as the consumer staples, financial, and telecommunications industries. This situation is also similar in the US stock market recently, where the energy and materials sectors have far outperformed other sectors, while the technology sector has been weak overall, and upstream cyclical industries have performed relatively better. This may be affected by the current global macro - environment, including the strong resilience of the US economy, high inflation stickiness, low market expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts before the change of the Fed chairman, the weakening of the US dollar's credit due to the debt cliff and geopolitical disturbances, and the upward transmission of the focus of the AI industry to the upstream. In the short term, the low expectation of the Fed's interest rate cuts and the weakening of the US dollar's credit have become the trading mainlines in overseas markets, which resonate with the Hong Kong stock market that has an AI industry chain and is sensitive to overseas liquidity. The report believes that Hong Kong stocks may continue to outperform US stocks and show an oscillatory upward trend. In the medium - to - long - term, the Hong Kong stock market still has good capital - side resilience, and the trend of expansion and allocation dominated by mainland funds is still strong [9][10]. 3.2 Market Review 3.2.1 Performance of Stock Index Futures - The report provides the closing prices, weekly changes, trading volumes, open interests, changes in open interests, basis, and changes in basis compared to the previous week of various stock index futures last week, including the Hang Seng Index Futures 2601, H - share Index Futures 2601, Hang Seng Technology Index Futures 2601, Dow Jones Mini Futures, S&P 500 Mini Futures, and NASDAQ 100 Mini Futures [13]. 3.2.2 Market Performance - The report presents the closing prices, weekly changes, year - to - date changes, weekly trading volumes, and price - to - earnings ratios of major Hong Kong and US stock indices last week, such as the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, Hang Seng Technology Index, Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, NASDAQ Index, and NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index. It also shows the price changes of various industry sectors in Hong Kong stocks last week, including the raw materials, energy, and other industries, as well as the top five and bottom five sectors in terms of price changes in the WIND secondary sectors of Hong Kong stocks. Additionally, it provides information on the trading of relatively active ETFs in Hong Kong stocks, such as the Tracker Fund of Hong Kong and the Southern Hang Seng Technology ETF, including their closing prices, weekly changes, year - to - date changes relative to the Hang Seng Index, returns in the past six months, fund shares, changes in fund shares compared to the previous week, weekly trading volumes, net asset values per share, fund sizes, and changes in net asset values. For the US stock market, it shows the price changes of various industry sectors and ETFs [15][16][17][18]. 3.3 Market External Environment Tracking 3.3.1 Update of Domestic Macroeconomic Data - The report updates domestic and US macroeconomic data, including GDP, industrial added value, social retail sales, inflation, social financing scale, and other indicators in China, as well as GDP, industrial production, consumption, employment, inflation, and other indicators in the US [28][29]. 3.3.2 Latest Central Bank Movements - Rick Rieder, an executive at BlackRock, has seen his winning probability in the competition for the Fed chairmanship soar from 6% to 49% and take the lead. The Bank of Japan maintained its benchmark interest rate at 0.75% and raised its economic growth and inflation expectations for the fiscal year 2026. Bank of Japan Governor Ueda said that he would closely monitor the impact of the weakening yen, and if long - term bond yields rise abnormally, the bank will buy government bonds to stabilize the market. People's Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng stated that in 2026, China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, flexibly and efficiently use various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts to maintain sufficient liquidity. There is still some room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year [30]. 3.3.3 Some Important Domestic and International News - In 2025, China's GDP increased by 5% year - on - year, reaching RMB140.19 trillion. The year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value of large - scale industries was 5.9%, and the added value of the service industry increased by 5.4%, accounting for 57.7% of GDP. The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year - on - year, and the contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to economic growth reached 52%. Fixed - asset investment decreased by 3.8% year - on - year, with real - estate development investment falling by 17.2%. The housing prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities in December showed an overall decline in the month - on - month and an expansion of the year - on - year decline. In the US, the final annualized quarter - on - quarter GDP growth rate in Q3 2025 was 4.4%, and the core PCE price index in November increased by 2.8% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month. The number of initial jobless claims last week was 200,000, lower than the expected 210,000. US President Trump reached an agreement framework on Greenland with NATO Secretary - General Rutte and will not implement the originally planned tariffs on February 1. Japan's trade deficit in 2025 was 2.65 trillion yen, with exports increasing by 3.1% to a record - high of 110.45 trillion yen, and exports to the US decreasing by 4.1% for the first time in five years [32]. 3.3.4 This Week's Focus - The Fed's interest - rate meeting is the focus of this week [32].

Core Viewpoint - The price of gold has surged to a record high of $3,654 per ounce, driven by several key factors including interest rate cuts, geopolitical tensions, and central bank purchases [2][3][5]. Group 1: Factors Driving Gold Prices - **Interest Rate Cuts**: The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates has soared to 89% following the latest U.S. non-farm payroll data, making gold a more attractive investment as bank returns diminish [3][5]. - **Geopolitical Influence**: Former President Trump has been pressuring the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, which has led to a decline in the dollar's credibility, prompting central banks worldwide to increase their gold reserves [5][11]. - **Central Bank Purchases**: Central banks, particularly the People's Bank of China, have been aggressively buying gold, with China's reserves reaching 7,402 million ounces (approximately 2300 tons) as of August, marking a significant trend in gold accumulation [5][11]. Group 2: Future Price Influencers - **Federal Reserve's September Decision**: The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting will be crucial; a modest rate cut may lead to a temporary price dip, while a more aggressive stance could push gold prices towards $3,700 [7]. - **Employment and Inflation Trends**: The state of employment and inflation will also impact gold prices; persistent job scarcity and rising prices could enhance gold's appeal as a stable asset [8][10]. - **Central Bank Buying Trends**: The ongoing purchasing behavior of central banks is a key indicator; a halt in their buying could signal a potential downturn in gold prices [9][10]. Group 3: Changing Role of Gold - **Shift from Safe Haven to Strategic Resource**: Gold is evolving from a traditional safe haven to a strategic resource, with increasing demand in technology sectors such as AI and aerospace, where gold usage is growing at 12% annually [11][12]. - **Monetary Credibility**: Emerging markets are using gold accumulation to enhance the international credibility of their currencies, contributing to the strategic importance of gold in the global financial system [12].