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中金:美国政策与经济尚未出现拐点 黄金牛市或持续 维持超配黄金
智通财经网· 2025-12-26 00:09
智通财经APP获悉,中金发布研报称,近期黄金价格一度冲破4500美元/盎司,再创历史新高,背后是 美联储重启宽松周期、美元信誉下降和全球地缘风险升级三重因素支撑。该行认为,美国债务与财政赤 字是否扩张,或全球央行是否加速购金,对黄金牛市顶部的指示意义有限。当前美联储仍处于宽松周期 之中,美国经济仍受到滞胀困扰,因此在看到美国政策与经济拐点之前,黄金牛市可能继续,维持超配 黄金。此外,中国股票继续受益于AI科技浪潮与流动性宽裕,且当前估值合理,尚未看到牛市顶部信 号,因此该行坚定看好中国资产重估,维持超配中国股票。 中金主要观点如下: 为何黄金大幅上涨? 近期黄金价格一度冲破4500美元/盎司,再创历史新高,背后是三重因素支撑:首先是美联储重启宽松 周期。在维持政策利率水平9个月不变之后,美联储今年9月重启降息,已经连续降息三次各25bp,且宣 布12月开始购买短端国债,扩大央行资产负债表,向市场投放流动性。进入2026年,美联储的前瞻指引 显示明年可能仍会继续降息。美联储货币大方向上趋于宽松,支持黄金表现。 其次是美元信誉下降。疫情后美国财政赤字率升至6%左右,远高于疫情前中枢,国家债务快速积累, 导致债务风 ...
美股,重挫!黄金,新高!
证券时报· 2025-04-21 23:57
Market Overview - On April 21, U.S. stock markets experienced a significant decline, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping over 970 points, marking a 2.48% decrease. The Nasdaq fell by 2.55%, and the S&P 500 decreased by 2.36% [3] - All eleven sectors of the S&P 500 index saw declines, with consumer discretionary and technology sectors leading the drop at 2.86% and 2.72%, respectively [5] Federal Reserve and Economic Concerns - President Trump urged the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, claiming that the U.S. is not experiencing inflation and warning of potential economic slowdown if rates are not cut [3] - Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve have intensified, especially with discussions about the possibility of Trump’s team legally dismissing Fed Chair Powell before his term ends in May 2026 [3] Company-Specific Developments - Tesla's stock fell by 5.75%, with reports indicating a significant drop in sales in Europe, particularly in Germany, Denmark, and Sweden, where sales fell over 50% [6] - Nvidia's shares decreased by 4.51% after announcing a $5.5 billion quarterly charge related to export restrictions on its H20 graphics processors, indicating potential growth slowdown [6] - Apple shares dropped by 1.94%, with analysts predicting continued declines and lowering the target price from $184 to $141 per share, despite a current average target of $241 from Wall Street analysts [7] Energy Sector Performance - The energy sector faced widespread declines, with U.S. energy stocks dropping over 6%, including Chevron down 3% and Murphy Oil down over 2% [8]