美元或将出现持续且广泛的抛售，这是来自大摩的最新判断，且认为政府关门是美元的"潜在利空"因素。 9月23日，据追风交易台消息，摩根士丹利在最新研报中称， 美元已进入"熊市机制"，预计这一状态将持续更长时间，带来广泛的美元卖压。 大摩策略师David S. Adams认为，美联储在鲍威尔杰克逊霍尔讲话后明确转向优先保护就业市场，即便以容忍高于目标的通胀为代价， 这一政策立场的转变 为美元熊市提供了持续动力 。 美联储政策转向触发美元熊市机制 摩根士丹利在年中展望中曾预测美元将持续走弱，但当时预期最可能的市场机制是"防御机制"，即实际利率和盈亏平衡点同时下降。 然而，自5月以来的实际情况有所不同： 实际利率确实下降了，但盈亏平衡点有所扩大。这种动态正是该行四机制框架所显示的"美元熊市机制"。 大摩指出， 关键的是，市场定价显示美元的利差优势将在未来12个月内下降近100个基点，这将显著降低做空美元的成本。 美国政府关门风险正在上升， 摩根士丹利认为这对美元构成潜在利空 。Polymarket市场数据显示，政府关门概率近期明显上升，这可能进一步 增加美元的风 险溢价 。 研报称，美联储货币政策委员会反应函数的明显转 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley predicts a sustained and widespread sell-off of the US dollar, citing potential negative impacts from a government shutdown as a contributing factor [1]. Group 1: Dollar Bear Market Mechanism - Morgan Stanley indicates that the US dollar has entered a "bear market mechanism," which is expected to persist for a longer duration, leading to significant selling pressure on the dollar [1]. - The shift in the Federal Reserve's policy, prioritizing job market protection over strict inflation control, is seen as a driving force behind the dollar's bear market [4][6]. - Historical data shows that under the dollar bear market mechanism, other currencies tend to appreciate against the dollar with a frequency of 67-84% and substantial average gains [4]. Group 2: Interest Rate Dynamics - The market is pricing in a decline of nearly 100 basis points in the dollar's interest rate advantage over the next 12 months, which will significantly reduce the cost of shorting the dollar [1][11]. - Investors have reported that the punitive interest rate spreads associated with shorting the dollar are a challenge, but Morgan Stanley anticipates a "spread relief" that will lower the costs by 50-75 basis points for most currencies, and nearly 150 basis points for USD/JPY [7][11]. Group 3: Government Shutdown Risks - The rising probability of a government shutdown adds new downward pressure on the dollar, as historical trends indicate that such shutdowns typically have a negative impact on the dollar's value [12]. - Current negative risk premium for the dollar is approximately -4%, and a government shutdown could exacerbate this situation, further increasing the risk premium [12]. - A government shutdown would also halt the release of government data, limiting the Federal Reserve's access to economic indicators before its meeting on October 29 [12][14].