在美联储货币政策转向的预期提振下，昨日期货市场贵金属板块走强，其中，沪金主力合约2510微涨 0.46%，沪银主力合约2510上涨1.89%。 从美联储货币政策调整预期来看，史家亮表示，通胀和就业依然是美联储关注的焦点，未来的核心变量 基本取决于关税对通胀的传导以及就业市场的演变。从当前来看，美国非农就业数据的表现凸显就业市 场走弱态势，通胀符合预期未出现大幅反弹迹象，同时美国总统特朗普不断施压鲍威尔让其主动降息。 基于鲍威尔转向"鸽"派强调了降息的可行性和必要性，史家亮认为，美联储2025年下半年将降息两次， 预计9月和12月各降息1次。 不过，展大鹏提醒，市场对美联储9月降息已接近充分定价，因此贵金属板块持续反弹的可能性偏低， 投资者需要更加关注9月美联储降息幅度是否超预期以及年内余下的时间是否仍有降息的可能性。 "短期市场关注的焦点在美联储货币政策上，要重点关注美联储官员发言，以及点阵图情况。"从姗姗表 示，预计金价短期区间震荡为主，若货币政策有超预期表现，可能会突破震荡区间。白银价格对美联储 的政策预期变动更加敏感，且波动率较高，预计其走势强于黄金价格。 中长期来看，从姗姗表示，在全球地缘局势不稳定的 ...

9月降息是正确的政策选择，但需以审慎和灵活的姿态执行，以确保经济在复杂环境中实现软着陆。 美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔经济研讨会上的演讲引发了全球金融市场的强烈反响。他明确表示，联 邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）极有可能在9月17日的会议上宣布下调联邦基金利率。这一信号将市场对 降息的预期概率从76%推高至89.2%，反映出投资者对美联储货币政策转向的强烈信心。 鉴于劳动力市场显著放缓和通胀压力的暂时性特征，美联储9月至少降息25个基点是必要且及时的政策 选择，旨在优先支持就业并防范经济进一步下行的风险。然而，降息步伐须谨慎，以避免长期通胀预期 失控或因政治压力损害美联储的独立性。 美联储的双重使命：就业与通胀的平衡 美联储的法定使命是实现最大就业和价格稳定，具体目标是将核心个人消费支出（PCE）价格指数控制 在2%左右，同时保持劳动力市场强劲。当通胀高于目标时，美联储通常通过维持或提高利率来抑制经 济过热；当劳动力市场疲软时，则倾向于降息以刺激就业和经济增长。然而，2025年中期，美国经济呈 现出复杂的局面：劳动力市场持续恶化，通胀压力因特朗普政府的新关税政策而加剧。这种"劳动力市 场疲软+通胀上升"的组合使 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent shift in global risk appetite driven by expectations of a change in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, leading to a rebound in major stock indices and significant movements in commodities and currencies [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Major stock indices globally experienced a rebound, with the Russian RTS index leading gains due to anticipated meetings between US and Russian leaders [2]. - In developed markets, US stocks saw a comprehensive recovery, with the Nasdaq rising by 3.9%, S&P 500 by 2.4%, and Dow Jones by 1.3% [2]. - Emerging markets also showed strong performance, particularly the Russian RTS which increased by 7.9%, and Vietnam's Ho Chi Minh index which surged by 6.0% [2]. Group 2: Bond Market - The Chinese bond market exhibited a "bull steepening" trend, with the yield curve shifting downward and the 10Y-2Y spread widening [3]. - In contrast, the US bond market showed a "bear flattening" characteristic, with the yield curve moving upward and a near 90% probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [3]. Group 3: Commodities and Currencies - Oil prices faced downward pressure due to OPEC+'s decision to significantly increase production in September, reversing previous cuts and alleviating supply concerns [3]. - The British pound strengthened despite the Bank of England's cautious rate cut, as inflation rates rebounded to 3.6% in May and June [3].

Core Insights - The public fund industry in China performed well in the first half of 2025, with a total profit of 639.1 billion yuan, indicating a return of the profit-making effect [1] - Among fund management companies, FuGuo Fund ranked fourth, generating 29.832 billion yuan in profits for investors in the first half of 2025 [1] - The second quarter saw a total profit of 386.3 billion yuan across public funds, with 11 fund managers exceeding 10 billion yuan in profits [1] Passive Index Funds - Passive index funds follow market trends to capture industry beta returns, focusing on a "riding the wave" strategy [2] Active Management - Active management funds rely on the fund manager's skills in stock selection, timing, and risk control [3] - FuGuo Fund's "Precision Medicine" managed by Zhao Wei earned 920 million yuan by focusing on the innovative drug sector [3] - Other notable funds include "Military Industry Theme" and "Consumer Select 30," each generating over 200 million yuan in profits [3] Fund Performance Data - The top-performing funds in Q2 include: - Hong Kong Internet ETF: 2.181 billion yuan - Military Industry Leader ETF: 1.546 billion yuan - FuGuo Precision Medicine: 920 million yuan - FuGuo Wealth: 705 million yuan - Government Bond ETF: 646 million yuan [4] Market Outlook - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy shift is a key variable for the market, with potential interest rate cuts depending on inflation and unemployment trends [9] - The innovative drug sector is expected to enter a phase of global value realization, with a focus on companies with licensing potential [11] - The military industry has shown signs of recovery, driven by geopolitical events and positive market expectations [18] - The consumer sector is being closely monitored for investment opportunities, particularly in emerging consumption areas [21]

Group 1 - The US stock market indices collectively rose, with the Nasdaq increasing nearly 1% and reaching a new closing high, driven by strong performance from large tech stocks and rising expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy shift [1][2] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.47% to 44,175.61 points, the S&P 500 increased by 0.78% to 6,389.45 points, and the Nasdaq gained 0.98% to 21,450.02 points [2] - Major tech stocks saw significant gains, with Apple rising over 4%, Google and Tesla up more than 2%, and Nvidia increasing over 1% [3] Group 2 - Bank stocks experienced collective gains, with Bank of America rising over 2% and Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, and Wells Fargo all increasing by more than 1% [4] - Energy stocks also saw widespread increases, with Chevron, ConocoPhillips, and Occidental Petroleum all rising by more than 1% [5] Group 3 - In June, US imports fell sharply by 8.4% year-on-year, significantly exceeding expectations, attributed to tariff increases by the Trump administration [8] - The National Retail Federation (NRF) forecasts a 5.6% decline in total imports for the year 2025 compared to the previous year, warning that tariffs are driving up prices and reducing the variety of goods available [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] Core Viewpoints - The main focus of precious metals is on the Fed's interest rate cut expectations and rhythm. Multiple Fed officials are open to a shift to loose monetary policy, strongly supporting precious metal prices. If economic growth data resonates with the July US non-farm payrolls data, it may accelerate the Fed's monetary policy shift to a looser stance and further push up gold prices [8]. - The trading logic of silver is generally in sync with that of gold, with future loose expectations on the macro level as the main line, and its pricing weight is higher than the supply-demand fundamentals of silver. With the logic of the gold-silver ratio returning, silver prices are expected to continue the upward trend [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Summary - Macro: Fed officials' statements indicate that the expectation of a shift to loose monetary policy within the Fed is rising, which is expected to support precious metal prices. Geopolitical risk premium has a relatively low weight in precious metal pricing, and the short-term main line lies in the Fed's loose expectations and rhythm [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On August 6, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 782.80 yuan/gram and closed at 783.68 yuan/gram, a change of 0.15% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 781.96 yuan/gram, down 0.22% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 9,104.00 yuan/kg and closed at 9,182.00 yuan/kg, a change of 1.18% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 372,060 lots, and the open interest was 373,376 lots. The night session closed at 9,180 yuan/kg, down 0.02% from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On August 6, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.22%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields was 0.53%, up 3 basis points from the previous trading day [3] Position and Trading Volume Changes of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On August 6, 2025, on the Au2508 contract, the long positions decreased by 249 lots compared to the previous day, and the short positions decreased by 336 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts was 239,517 lots, a change of -0.54% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2508 contract, the long positions decreased by 1,516 lots, and the short positions decreased by 1,708 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 532,607 lots, a change of 17.04% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The position of the gold ETF was 952.79 tons, down 3.15 tons from the previous trading day. The position of the silver ETF was 15,112.28 tons, up 67.8 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On August 6, 2025, the domestic premium of gold was -10.74 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium of silver was -706.17 yuan/kg. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 85.35, a change of -1.02% from the previous trading day. The foreign gold-silver ratio was 90.05, a change of -0.41% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamentals - On August 6, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T+d market was 29,226 kg, a change of -14.53% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 231,594 kg, a change of -14.47% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 9,764 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 15,690 kg [7] Strategy - Gold: The Au2510 contract's oscillation range may be between 765 yuan/gram and 795 yuan/gram [8] - Silver: The Ag2510 contract's oscillation range may be between 8,950 yuan/kg and 9,450 yuan/kg [9]

Group 1 - On August 5, southbound funds recorded a net inflow of HKD 23.426 billion, breaking the HKD 20 billion mark for the first time since July 25 [1] - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for July significantly underperformed expectations, indicating a substantial cooling in the labor market, which may lead to a shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [1] - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange has optimized its IPO mechanism by lowering the minimum allocation ratio for book building to 40%, which is expected to enhance the efficiency of new stock issuances [1] Group 2 - In a declining interest rate environment, stable and high dividend income can provide continuous cash flow for insurance funds, aiding in their long-term stable operation [2] - For individual investors seeking stable cash flow, index investment tools such as Hong Kong Stock Connect financial ETFs and Hong Kong central enterprise dividend ETFs can be considered to diversify risks [2]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a rebound after a period of adjustment, with overall trading volume continuing to shrink, indicating cautious sentiment among investors [1][9] - Despite signs of short-term adjustments, the overall downward space for the index is limited, suggesting a phase of consolidation rather than a significant decline [1][9] - The market is expected to maintain a "slow bull" pattern in the medium term, driven by ongoing policy support and improved liquidity conditions [1][9] Sector Analysis Military Industry - The military sector has shown significant growth, with a 25.27% increase in the second half of 2020 and a 16.30% increase in the first half of 2023, outperforming the broader market [6] - Continued government support for military modernization and geopolitical tensions are expected to drive further investment in this sector [6] - The forecast for the second half of 2025 suggests that investors should look for opportunities in aviation, defense information technology, and military materials, while being cautious of high valuations [6] Precious Metals - The precious metals sector has seen a notable price increase due to factors such as the onset of a Federal Reserve rate cut cycle, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and strong demand from central banks [7][8] - The outlook for gold prices remains positive, driven by expectations of rate cuts, geopolitical risks, and increased investment demand, although caution is advised against chasing prices after significant gains [8] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to maintain rationality and strategic discipline, focusing on high-quality sectors and selecting stocks with solid fundamentals and reasonable valuations [2][10] - It is recommended to avoid stocks that have risen significantly but show questionable performance or negative expectations, optimizing portfolio structure during adjustments [2][10] - Aggressive investors may consider technology growth stocks that have corrected, while conservative investors should wait for market stabilization [2][10]

Core Views - The market index has reached a critical level at 3600 points, indicating a significant divide in market sentiment and trend [2][11] - Short-term fluctuations may occur due to profit-taking and external disturbances, but the medium-term upward trend remains intact supported by policy backing and industrial upgrades [3][12] - The A-share market is expected to exhibit a "slow bull" pattern in the medium term, with abundant structural opportunities requiring enhanced stock selection and timing skills [11][12] Market Overview - On Thursday, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3605.73 points, up 23.43 points, with a trading volume of 18,447 billion yuan, indicating active market participation [6][11] - The market showed mixed performance with sectors like Hainan Free Trade Zone and energy metals experiencing significant gains, while precious metals and banking sectors faced declines [7][8][11] Sector Analysis - The Hainan Free Trade Zone saw a surge due to the upcoming full island "closure" on December 18, which will significantly increase the proportion of zero-tariff imports [7] - The energy metals sector rose sharply following government announcements of new policies aimed at stabilizing growth in key industries, including steel and non-ferrous metals [8] - The securities sector has shown resilience, with expectations of improved performance driven by increased trading volumes and favorable economic conditions [9] Investment Strategy - Short-term strategies should focus on avoiding high-flying stocks and selectively reducing positions in sectors that have seen substantial gains, such as the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower concept [3][10] - Medium-term investments should target growth sectors with high elasticity, including AI infrastructure, innovative pharmaceuticals, and humanoid robotics, driven by both policy and technological advancements [3][12]

Group 1 - The upcoming US June employment report is expected to be a critical turning point for the US dollar's trajectory, with potential implications for monetary policy expectations [1] - The foreign exchange market is undergoing significant changes, with traditional macroeconomic data becoming the primary driver of currency fluctuations, overshadowing geopolitical tensions and domestic fiscal policy disputes [1] - A decline in risk aversion has led to downward pressure on US short-term Treasury yields, further diminishing the dollar's safe-haven appeal [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs views the June employment report as a "stress test" for the dollar's performance, with a significant miss in expectations likely to trigger concentrated selling of the dollar [2] - If the employment data meets expectations, the market is likely to continue the trend of "moderate dollar depreciation + benefits for risk assets" [2] - This shift in the foreign exchange market narrative is moving away from being driven by geopolitical and fiscal policy factors towards being dominated by traditional economic data [2]