投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 资讯早班车-2025-11-25 期货研究报告 二、商品投资参考 综合 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20251020 | 2025/09 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.80 | 5.20 | 4.60 | | 20251031 | 2025/10 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.00 | 49.80 | 50.10 | | 20251031 | 2025/10 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 动 | % | 50.10 | 50.00 | 50.20 | | 20251113 | 2025/10 | 社会融资规模增量:当 | 亿元 | 8161.00 | 35299.00 | 14120.00 | | | | 月值 | | | | | | 20251113 | 2025/10 | M0(流通中的现金):同 比 | % | 10.60 | 11.50 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market experienced volatility, with major indices rebounding after a dip, while Chinese concept stocks, particularly Alibaba, faced significant declines due to a false rumor impacting market sentiment [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reaction - Alibaba's stock initially rose by 1.6% but later plummeted by 3.78%, closing at $153.80, influenced by a false rumor [2][3]. - The trading volume for Alibaba reached 33.99 million shares, with a total transaction value of $5.286 billion [2]. Group 2: Rumor and Response - A false claim circulated that the U.S. White House accused Alibaba of providing user data to the Chinese military, which was later debunked as lacking factual basis [3][5]. - Alibaba officially denied the allegations, labeling them as malicious and unfounded [5][7]. Group 3: Broader Implications - The incident reflects a pattern of market manipulation through misinformation, similar to past occurrences with other companies like Tencent [5]. - The market's reaction to the rumor indicates a growing resilience among rational investors, as evidenced by a recovery in Alibaba's stock price during after-hours trading [7]. Group 4: Macro Economic Context - Recent shifts in expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy have created uncertainty, with the probability of a rate cut dropping below 50% [9]. - The potential tightening of liquidity could adversely affect global stock markets, particularly emerging markets and technology sectors [9][11].

转自：期货日报 近期，黄金与白银价格在短暂调整后重拾强势，特别是周四白银表现亮眼：沪银价格创下上市新高，外 盘银价也一度逼近前期高点。记者了解到，这是宏观经济预期与品种自身基本面因素共振的结果。 据金瑞期货研究所贵金属研究员吴梓杰介绍，贵金属强势上行最核心的驱动力，源于市场对美联储货币 政策即将转向的强烈预期。近期披露的一些非官方经济数据，例如降温的劳动力市场和持续疲软的消费 者信心指数，被市场普遍解读为美国经济活力放缓的明确信号，这极大地强化了投资者对美联储将在不 久后降息以应对潜在衰退风险的判断。 吴梓杰表示，在此背景下，美国政府"停摆"的终结成为了一个关键的催化剂，其利好效应体现在多个层 面：首先，政府恢复正常运作后，积压的官方经济数据（尤其是就业数据）将得以发布，市场普遍预期 这些数据会进一步证实经济走弱的趋势，从而为美联储在12月降息提供更坚实的数据支持；其次，政府 重新"开门"意味着财政支出有望重回扩张轨道，并且可能伴随着财政部一般账户（TGA）流动性的重新 释放，这将共同为市场注入更多流动性；最后，亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克即将退休的消息，也被市场 解读为美联储内部可能进一步"转鸽"的信号，进一步 ...

近期，黄金与白银价格在短暂调整后重拾强势，特别是周四白银表现亮眼：沪银价格创下上市新高，外 盘银价也一度逼近前期高点。期货日报记者了解到，这是宏观经济预期与品种自身基本面因素共振的结 果。 据金瑞期货研究所贵金属研究员吴梓杰介绍，贵金属强势上行最核心的驱动力，源于市场对美联储货币 政策即将转向的强烈预期。近期披露的一些非官方经济数据，例如降温的劳动力市场和持续疲软的消费 者信心指数，被市场普遍解读为美国经济活力放缓的明确信号，这极大地强化了投资者对美联储将在不 久后降息以应对潜在衰退风险的判断。 吴梓杰表示，在此背景下，美国政府"停摆"的终结成为了一个关键的催化剂，其利好效应体现在多个层 面：首先，政府恢复正常运作后，积压的官方经济数据（尤其是就业数据）将得以发布，市场普遍预期 这些数据会进一步证实经济走弱的趋势，从而为美联储在12月降息提供更坚实的数据支持；其次，政府 重新"开门"意味着财政支出有望重回扩张轨道，并且可能伴随着财政部一般账户（TGA）流动性的重新 释放，这将共同为市场注入更多流动性；最后，亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克即将退休的消息，也被市场 解读为美联储内部可能进一步"转鸽"的信号，进一步巩固了 ...

Core Viewpoint - The acceleration of global central banks' "de-dollarization" is leading to a structural change in the international monetary system, with an increasing share of gold in foreign exchange reserves over the past 15 years [1][2]. Group 1: Central Bank Actions - Global central banks are significantly increasing their gold reserves, providing strong structural support for gold prices. By the second quarter of 2025, the share of the US dollar in global foreign exchange reserves is expected to drop to 56.32%, the lowest since 1995 [1][2]. - One-third of the 75 central banks managing $5 trillion in assets plan to increase their gold reserves in the next 1-2 years, marking a five-year high [1][2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The recent surge in gold prices is not solely driven by market sentiment but is a result of long-term adjustments in monetary reserve structures by global central banks [2]. - The demand for gold from central banks has exceeded 1,000 tons for two consecutive years, providing a structural floor for gold prices [2]. Group 3: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and the US's internal "de-globalization" trends are reshaping the pricing logic of gold, transitioning from market-driven pricing to a focus on national sovereign reserve currency pricing [3][4]. - The decline in the US dollar index, which has dropped nearly 10% since 2025, is correlated with the rise in gold prices, as the weakening dollar makes gold more attractive to holders of other currencies [4]. Group 4: Investment Trends - Institutional investors are increasingly accumulating gold, with North American and European markets leading in gold ETFs [4]. - The expectation of a new round of monetary easing by the Federal Reserve, with a 98.3% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October, is lowering the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold, further driving investment into the gold market [4]. Group 5: Currency Reallocation - The rise of the renminbi as a potential asset class is highlighted, with 30% of global central banks planning to increase their allocation to renminbi assets, which may rise to 6% in foreign exchange reserves [6]. - The structural transformation of the renminbi's exchange rate is supported by improvements in China's manufacturing sector, particularly in high-value-added industries [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Overall Market**: The market is currently affected by factors such as Sino - US trade disputes, policy expectations, and seasonal demand. Short - term uncertainties exist, but in the long - term, policies are expected to support the capital market. For the black sector, there is potential for a rebound, and for most commodities, specific supply - demand and cost factors need to be considered [4][8][44]. - **Investment Strategies**: Different commodities have different investment strategies. For example, for some commodities, it is recommended to wait and see, while for others, it is suggested to look for opportunities to go long on dips or short on rallies. 3. Summary by Category **Macro - Financial** - **Stock Index**: After the continuous rise, high - level hot sectors such as AI have diverged, and the market risk preference has decreased. Sino - US tariff concerns have disturbed the market in the short - term, but in the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the idea is to go long on dips [2][4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Sino - US trade disputes have led to a short - term decline in risk preference, which is beneficial for the bond market to recover. However, the uncertainty of tariff progress is high in the fourth quarter. The bond market needs to focus on fundamentals and institutional allocation power, and it is expected to maintain a volatile trend [5][8]. - **Precious Metals**: The Fed's monetary policy is in the initial stage of the easing cycle. The risk events in the banking industry provide a reason for the Fed to end the balance - sheet reduction. It is recommended to maintain a long - term bullish view on precious metals and look for opportunities to go long on dips [9][11]. **Non - ferrous Metals** - **Copper**: Sino - US trade negotiations are uncertain, but the sentiment has improved marginally. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, and the downstream consumption has improved after the price decline. The copper price is expected to be strong in the short - term [13][14]. - **Aluminum**: Sino - US trade tensions may ease marginally. The inventory of aluminum ingots has decreased after the price decline, and the price is supported by the increase in copper prices. It is expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term [15][16]. - **Zinc**: The domestic zinc ore inventory has decreased, and the zinc ingot inventory has increased. The overseas registered zinc warehouse receipts are at a low level. It is expected that the zinc price will be weak in the short - term [17]. - **Lead**: The lead ore port inventory has increased, and the downstream demand has improved. The lead ingot inventory has decreased. It is expected that the lead price will be strong in the short - term [18][19]. - **Nickel**: In the short - term, Sino - US trade friction may drive down the market risk preference, but the impact on nickel is relatively small. The nickel iron price has weakened, and the refined nickel inventory pressure is significant. In the long - term, the US easing expectation and domestic policies will support the nickel price. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and consider going long on dips [20][21]. - **Tin**: Sino - US trade friction may drive down the market risk preference, but the tin supply - demand is in a tight - balance state, and the demand has improved in the peak season. The tin price is expected to maintain a high - level shock in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The downstream lithium battery industry is in the peak production season, and the supply is less than the demand. The inventory has decreased, and the lithium price is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range. It is necessary to pay attention to the supply recovery [23][24]. - **Alumina**: The alumina smelting capacity is in an over - supply situation, but the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation may drive the non - ferrous sector to be strong. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [26][27]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price limit increase of 304 cold - rolled steel by Qing Shan Steel has boosted market confidence, but the downstream demand is still weak. It is expected that the market will maintain a volatile pattern in the short - term [28][29]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: The Sino - US economic and trade negotiation situation may improve the cost - side support, but the delivery pressure of the near - month contract is large, and the upward price space is limited [29][31]. **Black Building Materials** - **Steel**: The overall commodity market atmosphere was poor last Friday, and the steel price fluctuated downward. The upcoming Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee is expected to guide the macro - economic trend. The steel demand is still weak in the short - term, and the long - term trend is affected by policies [33][34]. - **Iron Ore**: The overseas iron ore shipment has decreased seasonally, and the iron water production has decreased due to the decline in steel mill profits. The port inventory has increased, and the iron ore price is expected to be weak and volatile [35][37]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The glass factory inventory is high, and the downstream demand is weak. The soda ash market is in a situation of over - supply, and both are expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term [38][41]. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: Sino - US trade disputes and coal mine safety accidents have affected the market. The black sector is expected to have a potential rebound. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are likely to follow the black sector's trend [42][45]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: The industrial silicon price is affected by the overall market environment and supply - demand factors, and it is expected to be in a short - term consolidation. The polysilicon policy expectation has an impact on the price, and the supply pressure may be relieved in the future [46][50]. **Energy and Chemicals** - **Rubber**: The rubber price has stabilized in the short - term. It is recommended to set a stop - loss and go long in the short - term, and partially build a position for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [52][56]. - **Crude Oil**: The geopolitical premium has disappeared, and OPEC's supply has not increased significantly. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and adopt a low - buy and high - sell strategy [57][58]. - **Methanol**: The import arrival has decreased in the short - term, and the port inventory has decreased. The domestic supply has decreased slightly, and the demand is still weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the supply - side disturbances and look for 1 - 5 positive spread opportunities [59][61]. - **Urea**: The short - term operating rate has decreased, and the cost support is expected to increase. The demand is weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range. It is recommended to wait and see or look for long - matching opportunities [62]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The spot price of styrene has increased, and the futures price has decreased. The port inventory has decreased significantly, and the styrene price may stop falling in the short - term [63][64]. - **PVC**: The enterprise profit has declined, and the supply is strong while the demand is weak. The export expectation is poor. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities in the medium - term [65][66]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply load is high, and the port inventory has increased. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities [67][68]. - **PTA**: The supply is in a slight accumulation state, and the demand is stable. The processing fee is difficult to expand. It is recommended to wait and see [69][71]. - **Para - Xylene**: The PX load is high, and the downstream PTA load is low. The inventory is difficult to decrease. It is recommended to wait and see [72][73]. - **Polyethylene PE**: The cost - side support has weakened, and the inventory is at a high level. The polyethylene price is expected to maintain a low - level shock [74][75]. - **Polypropylene PP**: The cost - side supply is in an over - supply situation, and the inventory pressure is high. The price is expected to be weak in the short - term [76][77]. **Agricultural Products** - **Hogs**: The supply of hogs is greater than the demand, and the second - fattening is difficult to form a trend. It is recommended to sell on rallies [79][80]. - **Eggs**: The egg supply is high, and the demand is weak. The spot price has a limited rebound space. The egg price is expected to be in a weak bottom - building state. It is recommended to wait and see [81][83]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The domestic soybean supply pressure is large, and the global soybean supply is expected to be loose. It is recommended to sell on rallies [84][85]. - **Oils and Fats**: The vegetable oil inventory in India and Southeast Asia is low, and the demand for soybean oil is boosted. The oils and fats market is in a state of balanced supply - demand in the short - term and is expected to be tight in the future. It is recommended to buy on dips in the medium - term [86][87]. - **Sugar**: The sugar production in Brazil has increased, and the northern hemisphere is expected to increase production in the new season. It is recommended to sell on rallies in the fourth quarter [88][90]. - **Cotton**: The Sino - US trade conflict is not conducive to the cotton price. The downstream demand is weak, and the new - year production is expected to be high. The cotton price is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term [91][92].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current Fed's monetary policy is at the beginning of an easing cycle, and the most important factor - the new Fed chairperson has not been announced. It is recommended to maintain a long - term view on precious metals. After a short - term price correction and stabilization, it will form a good buying opportunity. The reference operating range for the Shanghai Gold main contract is 934 - 1050 yuan/gram, and for the Shanghai Silver main contract is 10937 - 12500 yuan/kilogram [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Assessment and Market Outlook - **Weekly Market Review**: This week, gold and silver prices were strong. By the close of the Friday daytime session, Shanghai Gold rose 10.90% to 999.80 yuan/gram, Shanghai Silver rose 10.53% to 12249.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX gold rose 5.76% to 4267.90 US dollars/ounce, COMEX silver rose 6.55% to 50.63 US dollars/ounce; the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.02%, and the US dollar index fell 0.27% to 98.56 [11]. - **Fed's Policy Shift**: Fed Chair Powell indicated that the Fed will soon end quantitative tightening (QT). The US small - bank loan risk event this week provides a reason for the Fed to end balance - sheet reduction and move towards expansion. The market has fully priced in a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut at the Fed's meeting this month and expects a 93% probability of another 25 - basis - point cut in December [11]. - **Silver Spot Situation**: On October 17, the silver spot lease rate dropped from 25.8% to 15.9%. From October 1 to now, COMEX silver inventory has decreased by 663.3 tons to 15845 tons. Overseas silver spot shortages will continue to support silver prices [11]. 2. Market Review - **Price Performance**: Gold and silver prices were strong this week. Shanghai Gold rose 10.90%, Shanghai Silver rose 10.53%, COMEX gold rose 5.76%, and COMEX silver rose 6.55% [29]. - **Position Changes**: Shanghai Gold's total position decreased by 5.49% to 395,900 lots, and COMEX gold's total position as of the latest report period increased by 2.43% to 528,800 lots. Shanghai Silver's total position slightly increased by 0.14% to 837,600 lots, and COMEX silver's total position as of the latest report period increased by 1.75% to 165,800 lots [31][33]. - **ETF Holdings**: As of October 17, the total gold ETF holdings in the Reuters statistical scope were 2315.5 tons, and the total foreign silver ETF holdings were 28259.31 tons [39]. 3. Interest Rates and Liquidity - **US Treasury Yields**: Relevant graphs show the spreads between the 10 - year and 2 - year US Treasury bonds and short - term Treasury yields [48][49]. - **Interest Rates and Inflation Expectations**: Graphs display the US federal funds rate, overnight reverse - repurchase rate, 10 - year nominal interest rate, real interest rate, and inflation expectations [51][52]. - **Fed's Balance Sheet**: The table shows the weekly changes in the Fed's balance sheet, including asset and liability sides [54]. 4. Macroeconomic Data - **CPI & PCE**: In August, the US CPI year - on - year was 2.9%, the seasonally adjusted CPI month - on - month was 0.4%. The un - seasonally adjusted core CPI year - on - year was 3.1%, and the seasonally adjusted core CPI month - on - month was 0.3% [65]. - **Employment**: Affected by the US government shutdown, the latest weekly US unemployment data is missing [68]. - **PMI & PPI**: In September, the US ISM manufacturing PMI was 49.1, and the ISM non - manufacturing PMI was 50 [71]. - **New Housing Data**: In August, the annualized number of new housing sales in the US was 800,000, the annualized value of building permits was 1.33 million, and the annualized value of new housing starts was 1.307 million [74]. 5. Precious Metal Spreads - **Gold Basis**: The graph shows the spread between gold TD and SHFE gold [77]. - **Silver Basis**: The graph shows the spread between silver TD and SHFE silver [80]. - **Domestic - Foreign Spreads**: Graphs show the domestic - foreign spreads of gold and silver [84][86]. 6. Precious Metal Inventories - **Silver Inventory**: Graphs show the silver inventories of Shanghai Gold Exchange, Shanghai Futures Exchange, COMEX, and LBMA [90][93]. - **Gold Inventory**: Graphs show the gold inventories of COMEX and LBMA [97].

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has reached a historic high, with spot gold surpassing $4,179 per ounce, marking a significant milestone in the global gold market [1][4]. Group 1: Gold Price Surge - Spot gold prices have increased by 56.41% year-to-date, reaching a peak of $4,179.748 per ounce as of October 14 [1][3]. - COMEX gold futures also rose to $4,124.8 per ounce, reflecting a similar year-to-date increase of over 56% [3]. - Domestic gold jewelry prices have surged, with brands like Chow Sang Sang and Chow Tai Fook exceeding 1,200 RMB per gram, reaching between 1,213 and 1,218 RMB [4]. Group 2: Drivers of Gold Price Increase - Increased risk aversion due to the U.S. government shutdown has heightened concerns regarding U.S. fiscal stability and dollar assets, acting as a direct catalyst for gold's rise [5]. - Ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions have further escalated market demand for safe-haven assets, contributing to the upward trend in gold prices [6]. - The shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, with expectations of continued interest rate cuts, has provided significant support for gold prices [9]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Experts maintain an optimistic long-term outlook for gold prices, with expectations of continued upward momentum driven by U.S. fiscal risks and Fed policy [10][16]. - Global central banks' strong appetite for gold remains, with China's official gold reserves increasing for 11 consecutive months [9]. - Goldman Sachs has raised its gold price forecast for December 2026 to $4,900 per ounce, while other analysts predict prices could reach $5,000 per ounce by 2026 [10][12]. Group 4: Investment Considerations - Investors are advised to manage risks carefully as gold prices reach new highs, emphasizing the importance of controlling leverage in investments [14]. - Diversification in investment portfolios is crucial, with recommendations to avoid high-leverage options and consider physical gold or gold ETFs [14][15]. - Monitoring macroeconomic indicators such as GDP and CPI, along with utilizing technical indicators like RSI, can aid in formulating investment strategies [15].

Core Viewpoints - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) reported a market capitalization of HKD 49.85 trillion as of September 2025, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 7.01% and a year-on-year increase of 35.03% [1] - The average daily trading (ADT) for Q3 reached HKD 286.36 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of 144.80% and a month-on-month increase of 20.48% [1] - In Q3 2025, 28 new companies were listed, raising a total of HKD 478.38 billion, which is a 33.75% increase year-on-year [2] - The derivatives market showed positive growth, with average daily trading volume for futures and options reaching 165 million contracts, up 9.28% year-on-year [3] Market Activity - Southbound capital inflow totaled HKD 399.99 billion from July to September 2025, a year-on-year increase of 230.22%, significantly boosting market activity [2] - The average daily trading volume for the Hong Kong Stock Connect southbound trading reached HKD 152.46 billion in Q3, marking a year-on-year increase of 303.85% [2] Derivatives and Commodity Market - The average daily trading volume for derivatives and commodity contracts maintained positive growth, with a year-on-year increase of 9.28% in Q3 [3] - The average daily trading volume for metal contracts on the London Metal Exchange (LME) reached 71,000 contracts in September, a 5.51% increase year-on-year [3] Interest Rates and Investment Outlook - The Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR) rebounded in Q3, reaching approximately 3.5% by September 30, which is indicative of a tightening liquidity environment [4] - The sustained high trading activity is expected to continue into Q4, supported by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy shift and ongoing southbound capital inflows [6] Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve Q3 revenue of HKD 7.91 billion, a year-on-year increase of 47.26%, and a net profit of HKD 4.82 billion, up 53.38% year-on-year [5] - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are expected to grow by 27.94%, 5.93%, and 1.17% respectively, indicating a positive growth trajectory [5] Valuation and Investment Recommendation - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for HKEX is 36.49x, which is within a favorable range compared to historical averages [4] - The company maintains a "buy" rating with a target price of HKD 543 per share, supported by strong market activity and valuation advantages [6]

Core Viewpoint - CITIC Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (HKEX) with a target price of HKD 543, citing liquidity expectations from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, continuous inflow of southbound funds, and valuation advantages as key factors supporting the high activity level in the Hong Kong stock market in Q4 [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The Hong Kong stock market has shown a recovery in valuation since April, driven by high average daily trading volume and sustained buying from southbound funds [1] - As of October 10, 2025, HKEX's PE (TTM) stands at 36.49x, positioned at the 72.15%, 71.85%, and 47.43% percentiles over the past 1, 3, and 5 years respectively [1] - The company is expected to achieve high year-on-year growth in Q3 earnings, with projected revenues of HKD 79.11 billion (up 47.26%) and net profit of HKD 48.24 billion (up 53.38%) [2] Group 2: Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be HKD 286.25 billion, HKD 303.21 billion, and HKD 306.75 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 27.94%, 5.93%, and 1.17% [2] - Net profit forecasts for the same years are HKD 179.02 billion, HKD 194.44 billion, and HKD 198.57 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 40.88%, 8.62%, and 2.13% [2] Group 3: Supporting Factors - The Federal Reserve's shift in monetary policy, including interest rate cuts, is expected to enhance liquidity in emerging markets, providing support for the Hong Kong stock market [2] - Southbound funds have seen a net inflow exceeding HKD 1 trillion since the beginning of 2025, driven by the low valuation of Hong Kong stocks and liquidity spillover from the A-share market [3] - The valuation of the Hang Seng Index remains attractive, with a PE-TTM of approximately 11.95x, which is at the 64% percentile over the past 20 years, highlighting the "valuation pit" effect of Hong Kong stocks compared to the CSI 300's 14.24x [3]