早盘提示 Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 3 月 6 日 星期五 研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、美国国防部长赫格塞斯表示，美国与伊朗的冲突可能持续数周，时间可能达到 8 | | | | | 周甚至更长。他称，冲突节奏将由美国方面决定，"可以是四周、六周，也可能是 | | | | | 八周"，美方将掌控行动的速度与强度。 | | | | | 2、驻扎在伊拉克的"伊朗库尔德反政府武装"已开始向伊朗境内发起"地面进攻"。 | | | | | 美方正计划提供武器和情报支持以牵制伊朗军力。伊朗领土广袤且地形复杂人口庞 | | | | | 大，地面行动都恐陷入"多年泥潭"。 | | | | | 3、随着 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical conflict between the US, Israel and Iran has severely disrupted the energy market, pushing the Brent oil price to contain a risk premium of $9 - $10, and the energy market is approaching the critical point of physical supply disruption. The conflict may also force the Fed to maintain high - interest rates in a declining growth environment, putting pressure on the US stock market [1]. - The global economic situation is facing high uncertainty due to US policies, geopolitical conflicts, and the Fed's expected policy changes. The global economy has started to decline since the end of 2025, and investors need to be vigilant about market fluctuations [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 【Important Information】 - Trump said a military operation against Iran might take about four weeks or less, and leaders of the UK, France, and Germany may take "necessary defensive actions" against Iran [1]. - The Iranian Revolutionary Guard hit 3 "violating" US - UK oil tankers in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, and an oil tanker "MKD VYOM" was hit [1]. - Morgan Stanley estimates that if the Strait is fully blocked, the storage capacity of the seven major Middle - Eastern oil - producing countries can only support 25 days, and then they will be forced to stop production. The daily oil export volume has dropped to a quarter of the normal level [1]. - War - risk insurers have canceled policies for ships in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, and some insurance premiums may rise by up to 50% in the next few days [1]. - Goldman Sachs warns that if the conflict turns into a "protracted war" like in 2022, high fiscal spending and energy inflation will force the Fed to maintain high - interest rates, flattening the US Treasury yield curve and pressuring the US stock market [1]. - The actual duration of the US - Iran conflict is limited by the "inventory of air - defense interceptor missiles", and the inventory of the US, Israel and other countries may be depleted in a few days [1]. - Bank of America strategist Hartnett warns that the private - credit market is sending a risk alert, and credit risks are starting to spread to the financial system [1]. - Japanese experts say that if the Strait of Hormuz is blocked for a long time, Japan's GDP is expected to decrease by 3% [1]. - The AI competition in Silicon Valley has created an extreme over - work culture, and AI is reducing entry - level jobs and increasing lay - off anxiety [2]. 【Global Economic Logic】 - The US and Israel's attacks on Iran, Iran's counter - attacks, and the interruption of transportation in the Strait of Hormuz have led to hedge funds selling US stocks at the fastest pace since March last year [2]. - JPMorgan Chase CEO warns that the current high asset prices and blind profit - seeking are similar to the situation before the 2008 financial crisis, and a credit - cycle reversal may cause an unexpected default wave [2]. - Bridgewater Associates founder Dalio warns that the world is on the verge of a "capital war" due to geopolitical tensions and capital - market volatility [2]. - The expected balance - sheet reduction policy of the Fed's incoming chairman Wash has a strong negative impact on global equity and commodity assets [2]. - The US's actions such as arresting the Venezuelan president and trying to control Venezuelan oil and Greenland have brought great uncertainty to the global economy [2]. - Nomura says that the Fed's uncertainty is expected to peak from July to November 2026, and there may be a trend of "fleeing from US assets" [2]. - Goldman Sachs analysts warn that the decline in Las Vegas gambling revenue is similar to the early warning signal before the 2008 financial crisis [2]. - The US is adjusting its economic relations with China and trying to revive its economic autonomy [2]. - The Fed's Beige Book shows that consumer K - type differentiation is intensifying, and funds are flowing from technology stocks to defensive sectors [2]. - The US's return to the Monroe Doctrine will have a profound impact on major asset classes [2]. - Wash's combination of interest - rate cuts and balance - sheet reduction indicates a major shift in the Fed's monetary policy, which will lead to a strong expectation of liquidity contraction for equity assets [2]. - The Nasdaq has broken through the six - month moving average again, and AI's disruptive substitution may trigger a new round of large - scale selling, and the decline in US stocks may have a negative impact on US consumption [2]. - Due to the US's wrong policies, the global economy has passed its peak at the end of 2025 and started to decline [2].

Report Overview - The report reviews the weekly market conditions of the domestic futures market from February 2 - 6, 2026, covering various sectors including agriculture, black commodities, energy and chemicals, and financial futures [1]. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The domestic futures market showed a mixed performance this week, with more declining varieties than rising ones in the commodity futures market. Different sectors were affected by various factors such as supply - demand relationships, geopolitical events, and policy regulations [1]. Summary by Sector Agricultural Futures - **Corn**: The spot price had a narrow - range fluctuation, with the futures price rising 0.13% and closing at 2274 yuan/ton. Near - term, the spot market will be quiet due to the approaching Spring Festival, and the futures market is expected to trade within a wide range. The 2603 contract has support at 2250 and short - term pressure at 2280 [4]. - **Pig**: The spot price was weak, with the average price on the 6th at 11.96 yuan/kg. The futures price of the 2603 contract dropped 3.21% to 10860 yuan/ton. As the Spring Festival approaches, the average price hovers around 12 yuan/kg. Near - month short positions were suggested to take profits, and far - month short positions were to test the lower support [5][6]. - **Egg**: The egg price dropped sharply and then stabilized, with the Hebei Guantao price at 2.96 yuan/jin on the 6th. The futures price of the 2603 contract fell 3.26% to 2904 yuan/500KG. In the short term, the supply - strong and demand - weak situation may continue to pressure the price. Mid - term, the supply pressure is postponed. Previously held short positions were advised to take profits below 3000, and now it's mainly in a wait - and - see mode [6]. - **Jujube**: The Xinjiang jujube trees are in dormancy, and the Hebei market price is stable. The futures price was weakly oscillating. The supply pressure is the main factor suppressing the price, and the CJ605 contract is expected to seek historical low support. A bearish view is recommended for the medium - to - long - term [6]. - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar oscillated. The northern beet sugar production is nearly over, and the southern is in the peak season. After the Spring Festival stocking, there is no obvious positive support, but some overseas institutions' reduction of the 2026/27 global sugar surplus may boost the far - month price. It's expected to trade within a range next week [7]. - **Log**: The log futures market is complex. The downstream 3 - meter wood square price in Lanshan is rising, and radiation pine traders' quotes are firm. If the price transmission is smooth, the spot price may rise, and the futures market has some positive factors [7]. - **Apple**: The apple market is structurally differentiated. High - quality apples support the price in the long - term, while ordinary apples face sales pressure. Near the end of the Spring Festival, the market will continue to oscillate widely in the short - term [8]. - **Cotton**: Internationally, cotton supply is tightening, and demand is resilient. Brazilian exports are down, and Australian production is expected to decrease. US net signing and shipping volumes are stable. Domestically, the supply - demand pattern is stable, but demand is seasonally weakening. The Zhengzhou cotton main contract will oscillate between 14500 - 15000 yuan/ton before the Spring Festival [8]. Black Commodities - **Steel Products**: The supply of five major steel products decreased by 0.4% to 819.9 million tons, and the total inventory increased by 4.6% to 1337.75 million tons. Consumption decreased by 5.1%, with a significant drop in building materials and a slight increase in plates. The downstream winter - storage willingness is weak, and the price is expected to remain in the oscillation range before the Spring Festival, with 3050 as strong support for the rebar main contract [9][10]. - **Iron Ore**: Global iron ore shipments and arrivals increased. Domestic mine production decreased, and port inventories continued to accumulate. Iron water production remained stable, and steel mills' pre - holiday replenishment is almost over. The first support for the main contract is 750, the second is 730, and the first pressure is 800, the second is 830 [10]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures oscillated sharply. The supply is decreasing as coal mines close for the holiday, but Mongolian coal imports are high. Steel mills' pre - holiday replenishment is almost done, and the market is expected to oscillate within a range before the Spring Festival [11]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Affected by the geopolitical risks in the Middle East, the price fluctuated greatly. The US - Iran negotiation and the US manufacturing PMI affected the market sentiment. Before a conclusion on the US - Iran situation, the price is expected to oscillate upwards [13]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It was under pressure due to the decline of precious and non - ferrous metals and the strengthening of risk management by the exchange. With the approaching Spring Festival, long - position holders are more willing to close positions. It's expected to oscillate widely between 130,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton, and a short straddle option strategy can be considered [14]. - **Methanol**: The port inventory is decreasing, and Iranian plants are resuming production. The downstream olefin plant operating rate is low, and the inland market is mainly for inventory clearance. It will continue to oscillate within a range in the short - term [15]. - **Urea**: The seasonal demand is starting, and the upstream inventory pressure is reducing. However, the high - supply situation remains. The price is expected to oscillate strongly within a key range, and investors can wait for price corrections to enter the market [15][16]. - **Bottle Chips**: Affected by the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the fluctuation of crude oil prices, the price followed the raw materials to oscillate widely. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak in the short - term. It's recommended to operate lightly within the 6100 - 6450 yuan/ton range [16]. - **Rubber**: Natural rubber oscillated weakly, with cost support from raw materials but weakening demand due to the approaching holiday. Synthetic rubber's BR main contract fell from a high level due to the weakening of raw material cost support and increased market supply. Both are expected to have a weak performance before the Spring Festival [17]. Financial Futures - The new nominee for the Fed Chairman's monetary policy of "rate - cut + balance - sheet reduction" has led to global de - leveraging. The A - share market is in an adjustment period, and the US stock market is accelerating de - leveraging. Before the Spring Festival, it's necessary to prevent the impact of the US stock market on A - shares, and it's recommended to close long positions, reduce equity assets, or hedge risks [18].

Group 1 - The PTA market experienced fluctuations this week, initially declining before rebounding due to the interplay between rising crude oil prices and accumulating PTA inventory [1] - Concerns over a potential shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy led to a broad decline in the commodity market, causing PTA prices to retreat from high levels at the beginning of the week [1] - Geopolitical uncertainties have contributed to the rise in crude oil prices, which in turn has supported the PTA market [1] Group 2 - Downstream polyester operating rates continue to decline, creating a stalemate between cost support and decreasing demand in the market [1] - The short-term outlook for the PTA market is expected to remain stable [1]

早盘提示 Morning session notice 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、桥水基金创始人达利欧警告称，在地缘政治紧张局势加剧、资本市场高度波动 | | | | | 的背景下，世界正处在一场"资本战争"的边缘。所谓资本战争，是指通过贸易禁 | | | | | 运、切断资本市场准入，或将债务所有权作为施压工具，将资金"武器化"。 | | | | | 2、马斯克团队近期走访了中国多家光伏企业，考察项目涉及设备、硅片、电池组 | | | | | 件等环节，其中重点考察了有异质结、钙钛矿技术路线的光伏企业。太空光伏是指 | | | | | 在太空轨道、月球等地外环境中，利用太阳能光伏技术获取能源。 | | | | | 3、"木头姐"Cathie Wood 接受专访指出，中国在技术融合方面领先美国，因为中 | | | | | 国公司都在协同合作。美国公司各自为政，被严格划分为不同行业板块。她认为必 | | | | | 须打破行业壁垒，让技术协同 ...

2026年1月30日夜间，全球贵金属市场上演了一场"史诗级屠戮"。 伦敦金现价格从5450美元高点骤然崩塌，短短半小时内狂泻380美元，最低触及4686美元/ 盎司，单日跌幅突破10%，创下自1983年以来的最大单日暴跌纪录。 同步跟跌的现货白银更显惨烈，盘中跌幅一度扩大至35%，跌破80美元关口，贵金属市 场的恐慌情绪如病毒般蔓延至全球每一个角落。 这场暴跌的导火索直指美联储核心人事变动。 1月29日晚，特朗普提名鹰派前美联储理事凯文·沃什接替鲍威尔出任下任美联储主席。 沃什曾公开批评量化 宽松政策，主张美联储与财政部强化协作，市场迅速将其解读为货币政策转向的强硬信号。 此前市场普遍押注的"2026年上半年降息3次"预期瞬间瓦解，美 元指数应声暴涨0.93%至97.03，10年期美债收益率飙升18个基点。 黄金作为无息资产，在美元强势反弹与持有成本飙升的双重夹击下，瞬间失去避险光 环。 暴跌并非孤立事件，而是前期泡沫积累的必然结果。 2026年1月，伦敦金现月度涨幅超23%，价格一度冲至5626.80美元的历史峰值。 技术面上，黄金相对 强弱指数（RSI）长期维持在90以上的极端超买区间，价格偏离20日均线 ...

北京时间1月28日早间，伦敦金现一度冲破5200美元/盎司，连续8个交易日上涨，继续创历史新高。 特朗普再度干预美联储政策预期，黄金继续创历史新高，市场对降息路径的博弈叠加地缘风险，推动黄金持续走强；与此同时，中国国有大行同步上调黄 金积存业务门槛，反映金融体系正对高波动资产进行风险重估。 周二（1月27日），美国总统特朗普再度表态，他表示，美联储主席上任后利率将下降。他还表示，他很快就会宣布美联储主席人选。 黄金ETF与机构配置持续升温 金价持续走强的背景下，黄金相关主题ETF（交易型开放式指数基金）成资金追捧焦点，吸金能力突出。据Wind数据，当前市场上共有20只黄金主题ETF 产品，其中14只为黄金ETF、6只为黄金股ETF。 世界黄金协会此前表示，2025年金价共计53次刷新历史纪录，推动全球投资者以前所未有的资金规模配置实物黄金ETF，北美地区为主要驱动力；全年的 全球黄金ETF流入规模激增至890亿美元，资产管理总规模（AUM）增长至5590亿美元，双双刷新历史纪录。总持仓攀升至4025吨的历史峰值。 银行收紧黄金积存业务门槛 1月26日，农业银行在官网发布关于存金通黄金积存业务增加风险承受能力测 ...

Core Viewpoint - The prices of spot gold and silver have reached historical highs, driven by expectations of changes in U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy and ongoing geopolitical risks [1][6]. Group 1: Gold and Silver Prices - Spot gold prices surged past $4,967 per ounce, while spot silver prices exceeded $99 per ounce [1]. - As of the latest update, spot gold is priced at $4,954.45 per ounce, reflecting a 0.37% increase, and spot silver is at $98.64 per ounce, showing a 2.59% rise [1][3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Analysts attribute the rise in gold prices to strong market expectations that the Federal Reserve will shift its monetary policy, with predictions of 2-3 rate cuts in 2026, which is higher than the Fed's own projections [6]. - Geopolitical tensions are also contributing to the strategic support for gold prices, as global conflicts intensify [6]. Group 3: Investment Products - The surge in gold prices has led to a spike in the issuance of gold-linked structured deposit products by banks, with various offerings from state-owned and foreign banks [7]. - For instance, Bank of China has launched a product with a minimum investment of 10,000 yuan and an expected annual yield ranging from 0.2% to 5.2% [7]. - Some foreign banks are offering structured deposits with annual yields as high as 9.5%, linked to a basket of assets including U.S. and Hong Kong stocks [7]. Group 4: Institutional Participation - The popularity of gold-linked structured deposits is not limited to individual investors; institutional funds are also entering the market, with numerous A-share listed companies announcing investments in these products [10]. - Companies like Jin Hai Gao Ke and Su Jiao Ke have allocated significant amounts, ranging from millions to over a hundred million yuan, into structured deposits linked to gold [10].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the unexpected drop in the core CPI to 2.6% in December signals a potential shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, leading to a surge in risk assets, particularly Bitcoin [1][2][4] - The overall CPI remained flat at 2.7%, while the core CPI decreased from 2.6% to 2.6%, which was below market expectations of 2.7%. This indicates a shift in inflation pressure from broad-based to structural, especially in the service sector [2][4] - Following the CPI data release, the probability of a rate cut in March increased from 48% to 65%, and the dollar index dropped by 0.5%, while non-USD assets like gold and Bitcoin rose [4] Group 2 - Bitcoin briefly surged past $96,500, driven by both technical and funding factors. Prior to the CPI announcement, Bitcoin was consolidating between $92,000 and $94,000, forming a "cup and handle" pattern [5][7] - Institutional inflows have been a key driver of Bitcoin's recent price increase, with Grayscale Bitcoin Trust seeing over $1.5 billion in net inflows in January, and Bitcoin ETF trading volumes exceeding $5 billion in a single day [7] - The breakthrough at $96,500 is significant as it was a key resistance level, and further upward movement could lead to a challenge of the psychological $100,000 mark [7][10] Group 3 - Looking ahead, for Bitcoin to surpass $100,000, three conditions must be met: clear signals of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, continued institutional inflows with spot ETF holdings exceeding 1.2 million, and stable network hash rates to avoid miner sell-offs [8][10] - Historically, Bitcoin bull markets tend to peak 6-9 months after the Federal Reserve's first rate cut, suggesting potential for Bitcoin to challenge $120,000 by Q2 2025 if rate cuts occur in March [10] - The relationship between the drop in core CPI and Bitcoin's surge reflects a broader narrative of traditional financial policy shifts and the challenge posed by the crypto economy to monetary sovereignty [10]

贵金属狂欢盛宴，现货白银正迎来史诗级"完美风暴"。 今年以来，白银价格已上涨近25%。 赶超英伟达！ 受美联储降息预期、鲍威尔遭起诉以及地缘局势升温影响，市场避险需求显著提升。 其中，现货白银盘中大涨5%报91.31美元/盎司，纽约期银日内也涨超5%突破91美元/盎司。 周三，银价一度强势突破91美元大关，为历史上首次。 截至发稿，涨幅有所回落，现货白银现涨超3%，交投于90美元附近。 这增强了市场对美联储货币政策转向的押注。 与此同时，美联储主席鲍威尔遭起诉的消息，再次引发了投资者对美联储独立性的担忧。 地缘政治紧张局势加剧，加大了避险需求。 不久前，特朗普威胁对伊朗采取"非常强有力的行动"，美国敦促公民立即离开伊朗。 这也被视为美国可能很快采取行动的最新信号。 当前，白银总市值已经突破5万亿美元大关。 CompaniesMarketCap数据显示，受银价提振，白银已超越英伟达成为全球第二大资产。 黄金以32.162万亿美元的市值位居榜首，芯片巨头英伟达以4.523万亿美元的市值滑落至第三。 白银狂飙背后是多重因素的共振。 首先，昨日美国公布的通胀数据表现疲软，市场加大了对美联储降息的预期。 美国12月核心 ...