Group 1 - The overall market exhibited high volatility last week, with a focus on potential statements from the Trump administration regarding the Section 232 tariff investigation, which could impact silver and copper import tariff expectations [2][6]. - Precious metals saw significant price increases, with COMEX gold rising by 4.07% and silver by 10.41%, while SHFE gold and silver increased by 2.96% and 9.7% respectively [4][27]. - Industrial metals also experienced price fluctuations, with COMEX copper and SHFE copper increasing by 3.38% and 3.23% respectively [4]. Group 2 - Copper prices initially surged due to military activities in Venezuela, raising concerns about supply from South America, but later retreated as the US PMI data indicated a slowdown in manufacturing [6][10]. - Supply-side factors, including a strike at the Mantoverde mine and delays in the Mirador project, provided support for copper prices, which rebounded after a brief decline [6][10]. - The market is closely monitoring the Trump administration's stance on the Section 232 investigation, as it may influence copper tariff expectations [10][11]. Group 3 - The US economy is on a soft landing path, with mixed PMI data and non-farm payrolls slightly below expectations, but overall performance in wage growth and unemployment rate exceeded forecasts [8][27]. - Geopolitical tensions have positively impacted precious metal prices, with expectations of continued strength in gold and silver due to liquidity easing and potential credit risks in the US [8][44]. - The upcoming announcement regarding silver tariffs is expected to lead to increased volatility in silver prices [8][44].

Group 1: Political and Economic Crisis - The U.S. is facing a severe political crisis, with 71% of the population expressing extreme concern about the country's future, according to a recent poll [1] - The government shutdown has resulted in an economic loss of $15 billion within just one week [1][7] - The shutdown has led to 750,000 federal employees being furloughed, significantly impacting various sectors including aviation and public health [7] Group 2: Military Leadership Turmoil - Recent turmoil in U.S. military leadership includes the resignation of key figures, such as Air Force General Thomas Bissell and Special Operations Command Chief Brian Fenton, reflecting deep divisions within the military regarding new defense strategies [3][5] - Over 1 million active-duty military personnel are affected by the government shutdown, leading to concerns about equipment maintenance and supply shortages [5] Group 3: Diplomatic Relations - The U.S. is experiencing a decline in confidence from European allies, with discussions in the EU about reducing reliance on the U.S. and strengthening ties with China [9][11] - China's recent diplomatic engagements in Europe indicate a shift towards deeper strategic cooperation, which may further challenge U.S. influence [9][11] Group 4: Economic Indicators and Housing Market - The National Association of Home Builders reports that the housing market index has dropped to a two-year low due to multiple pressures, including labor and material shortages [12] - Rising mortgage default rates and declining consumer confidence are additional indicators of economic strain [12] Group 5: U.S.-China Trade Relations - U.S. soybean exports to China fell by 39% in the first half of 2025, significantly impacting the agricultural economy in the Midwest [14] - Upcoming high-level negotiations between the U.S. and China are seen as critical for stabilizing market conditions, with potential compromises on tariffs and technology exports [14][16] Group 6: Global Economic Impact - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has noted a significant decline in global confidence in U.S. Treasury bonds and the dollar, with emerging market currencies showing resilience [18] - The ongoing crises in the U.S. could lead to a broader international trust crisis if not addressed promptly [18]