Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold and silver prices is primarily driven by weak U.S. employment data, which has raised expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in 2026, alongside geopolitical tensions due to U.S. sanctions on Venezuelan oil tankers [1][3][4]. Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices are trading around $4,340, having risen approximately 1% in a single session, supported by the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at around $4,258, indicating an upward trend [1][3]. - The MACD indicator is above the signal line and in positive territory, suggesting that the upward momentum remains strong, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is close to 60, indicating that the market is not yet in overbought territory [1][4]. - If gold can maintain above the $4,300 level, it is expected to continue its upward trajectory; however, a drop below this level may lead to a consolidation phase [1][4]. Silver Market Analysis - Silver has reached a historical high of $66.89, with the MACD turning positive, indicating increased upward pressure, while the RSI at 69.62 suggests that the upward momentum may be slowing [2][4]. - The immediate resistance level is at the historical high of $66.89, with potential targets for further upward movement at the Fibonacci extension levels of $68.30 and $70.00 [2][4]. - Downward support levels are identified at $64.72, $63.35, and $60.87, indicating potential areas for price stabilization [2][4]. Cryptocurrency Market Analysis - Bitcoin and Ethereum are showing weakness, with multiple failed rebounds leading to a "gradually declining low" trend [5]. - Following the "1011" crash, the futures leverage in the cryptocurrency market has been fully cleared, resulting in a historically low speculative leverage ratio, which is seen as a positive signal for the market [5]. - The cryptocurrency market is expected to remain volatile but holds long-term potential, especially with anticipated U.S. tax cuts, interest rate reductions, and relaxed regulations by 2026 [5].

Group 1 - "Long gold" has become the most crowded trade for the second consecutive month, with 58% of investors considering it the current most crowded trade, significantly higher than the second-ranked "long tech giants" at 22% [2] - Gold is viewed as the most overvalued asset since 2008, with a net 45% of investors believing it is overvalued, an increase from 34% in April [5] - Investor sentiment towards the US dollar has shifted significantly, with a net 17% of investors holding a low allocation stance, marking a 19-year low since May 2006 [8] Group 2 - A net 57% of investors believe the US dollar is overvalued, a decrease of 12 percentage points from the previous month, representing the largest monthly decline since September 2023 [11] - Despite a slight improvement in global investor sentiment, it remains at a pessimistic level, with 61% of investors expecting a "soft landing" for the global economy, up from 37% in April [16] - A net 59% of investors expect the economy to weaken, showing the largest monthly improvement since October 2024, although expectations are still down 66 percentage points from the peak in December 2024 [19] Group 3 - 62% of investors view tariffs as the biggest tail risk for a global recession, with 43% believing tariffs could lead to a systemic credit event, followed by the US shadow banking system at 25% [21] - Investors are significantly adjusting their asset allocations, with a net 38% underweight in US stocks, the lowest level since May 2023, while eurozone stock allocation increased by 13 percentage points to a net 35% overweight [26] - There has been a substantial increase in tech stock allocation by 17 percentage points, marking the largest monthly increase since March 2013, while energy stock allocation has dropped to a net 35% underweight, the lowest on record [26]