施罗德投资环球无约束固定收益主管Julien Houdain指，主要经济体掀起新一轮加息预期，推高了债券 收益率，但此轮走势已反应过度。随着经济"软着陆"的可能性增加，这种市场错位正带来具吸引力的入 场时机。尽管美国依然是环球金融市场的主要影响因素，但过去一个月推动债息攀升的主力却来自美国 以外。亚洲、欧洲及美元区经济体已由原先预期减息，转为消化未来12个月的加息预期。在部分地区， 市场的反应为时过早且幅度过大。 英国步入2026年之际的通胀放缓前景，使短期英国国债具备吸引力。基于通胀放缓迹象、劳动市场状况 放松，以及11月份英国预算案预示2026年将出现轻微财政紧缩，英国较短年期(五年或以下)的国债仍然 是看好的长仓选择。 一方面，相信在"大而美法案"(One Big Beautiful Bill)增加对消费者的财政支持下，美国经济增长至2026 年将保持良好。另一方面，当地劳动市场仍显脆弱，而这正是美联储双重政策目标的其中一环。因此， 就纯粹的方向性押注而言，更佳债券投资机遇在其他地区出现。反之，持续预期美国利率市场的曲线将 趋向陡峭。10年期与30年期债券跑输两年期及五年期债券，正正反映了美国经济疲弱的 ...

施罗德投资表示，相信在"大而美法案"增加对消费者的财政支持下，美国经济增长至2026年将保持良 好。另一方面，当地劳动市场仍显脆弱，而这正是美联储双重政策目标的其中一环。 施罗德投资环球无约束固定收益主管Julien Houdain表示，主要经济体掀起新一轮加息预期，推高了债 券收益率，但施罗德认为此轮走势已反应过度。随着经济"软着陆"的可能性增加，这种市场错位正带来 具吸引力的入场时机。尽管美国依然是环球金融市场的主要影响因素，但过去一个月推动债息攀升的主 力却来自美国以外。亚洲、欧洲及美元区经济体已由原先预期减息，转为消化未来12个月的加息预期。 施罗德认为，在部分地区，市场的反应为时过早且幅度过大。 施罗德投资调高了经济"软着陆"情境的概率，这显然是该行认为最可能出现的结果。"硬着陆"的机会则 被调低，此举反映部分劳动市场指标，例如小型企业的招聘意愿已浮现初步回稳的迹象。同时，考虑到 短期通胀前景温和(相对于债券市场已反映的预期)、施罗德对2025年第四季经济增长温和放缓的预测， 以及新任美联储主席可能偏向鸽派，该行视经济"无着陆"为发生概率最低的情境。 因此，就纯粹的方向性押注而言，施罗德投资认为更佳 ...

《2026 年展望 — 浮沤危悬？多元布局！》指出，2026 年全球风险资产有望领涨，但市场分化将加剧，核心投资逻辑围绕多元布局展开，需聚焦三大主题并 警惕四大风险。 宏观经济方面，核心情境为美国经济软着陆（60% 几率），美联储预计 2026 年底前累计减息 75 个基点至 3.0%，贸易紧张局势缓和，德国基建与国防支出 及中国定向刺激政策将提供增长支撑。同时存在 15% 的硬着陆风险与 25% 的 "不着陆" 上行风险，通胀虽趋稳但仍高于疫情前常态，股债相关性维持高 位，传统分散投资效果受限。 三大核心投资主题明确：一是股票市场上涨伴随人工智能争论升温，人工智能驱动的盈利增长将抵消部分高估值压力，超配美国和亚洲（除日本）股票，新 增印度大中型股为超配标的，与中国股票形成双轮驱动，行业上偏好科技、健康护理、公用事业等，通过地区与行业分散降低单一依赖；二是新兴市场债表 现优于发达市场债，美元债与本币债均具吸引力，受益于财政基本面改善、收益率优势及美元走弱预期，可分散发达市场利率风险；三是分散配置工具凸显 价值，黄金有望延续涨势，3 个月与 12 个月目标价分别为 4350 美元 / 盎司和 4800 美元 / ...

随着投资者准备迎接新年，市场情绪正以罕见的强劲信心收官。美银16日发布的月度基金经理调查显示，全球基金经理对从经济增长到股票和大宗商品 的一切资产类别都表现出坚定的乐观态度，整体乐观情绪已攀升至四年半以来的最高水平。 据追风交易台消息，这项针对管理着5690亿美元资产的203位基金经理的调查显示，基于现金水平、股票配置和经济增长预期的广泛情绪指标在12月升 至7.4（满分10），创下自2021年7月以来的最高看涨读数。投资者对股票和大宗商品这两类通常在经济扩张期表现良好的资产的综合敞口，已达到2022 年2月以来的最高水平。 在宏观前景方面，市场对经济"软着陆"的预期占据主导地位，绝大多数投资者排除了经济衰退的可能性。调查显示，做多"Magnificent 7"（美股七巨 头）连续第二个月成为最拥挤的交易，而对人工智能（AI）泡沫的担忧仍是市场关注的首要尾部风险。 美银策略师Michael Hartnett指出，如此高涨的乐观情绪在本世纪仅出现过八次。然而，极度看涨的情绪也触发了该行的逆向"卖出信号"。Hartnett警告 称，目前的现金水平已跌破4%的阈值，根据美银的交易规则，这通常被视为股市的逆向卖出信号 ...

12月11日凌晨3点，华尔街将迎来关键时刻。市场对美联储降息的期待已经达到白热化程度——高达87.6%的概率预测将降息25个基点。 标普500指数早已提前消化这一预期，逼近历史高点，但与此同时，FOMC内部正经历严重分裂。 金融环境指数的紧张程度达到今年最高点。十年期美债收益率、美元指数和股票波动率均显示市场处于高度警惕状态。 02 关键措辞 在鲍威尔即将主持的新闻发布会上，交易员们将特别关注一个短语——"处于良好位置"。这个看似中性的表述已成为市场解读美联储未来意图的重要风向 标。 如果鲍威尔使用这一表述，意味着美联储可能认为当前的政策设定恰到好处，足以应对经济放缓，同时又不会过度刺激市场。这将暗示明年1月会议可能暂 停降息步伐。 在9月的新闻发布会上，鲍威尔曾谨慎使用这一措辞，随后市场对降息的预期明显降温。 01 市场预期 随着标普500指数攀升至历史高点附近，市场的紧张情绪与日俱增。芝加哥商品交易所的FedWatch工具显示，市场对降息25个基点的预期概率高达87.6%。 这一数字几乎等于市场的一致预期。交易员们普遍认为美联储将通过降息向市场释放信号，尽管对后续政策路径仍存分歧。 值得注意的是，这将是自 ...

Group 1 - The assessment of "neutral interest rate" is a critical part of a central bank's monetary policy framework, influenced by factors such as productivity growth and demographic changes [1] - Schroders believes that the perception of how close central banks are to the "neutral interest rate" is more important than the actual level, as it affects their response to new data [1] - The European Central Bank (ECB) considers its current policy rate close to neutral, having halved its rate since mid-2024, while the market anticipates the Federal Reserve will reach neutral rates in the coming quarters [1] Group 2 - Schroders assesses a 60% probability for a "soft landing" of the US economy, with a 30% chance of a "hard landing" and 10% for "no landing" [2] - The current US Treasury yields have significantly decreased, reflecting market predictions of a 50% chance of a "hard landing" for the US economy [2] - The US labor market is currently stagnant, with companies adopting a cautious approach to hiring and layoffs, indicating high uncertainty [2] Group 3 - Schroders maintains that the necessity for further rate cuts by the ECB is limited, a view supported by recent statements from ECB President Lagarde [3] - The yield curve may steepen due to deteriorating supply-demand dynamics for long-term bonds, with slight upward movement in Eurozone bond yields expected [3] - Schroders is cautiously optimistic about certain investment opportunities, particularly in agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS), covered bonds, and emerging market bonds, while remaining patient regarding corporate credit [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut has shifted investor focus from whether rates will be lowered to the stability of the U.S. economy and its impact on the stock market's performance at historical highs [3]. Group 1: Economic Outlook - The Fed's decision to cut rates was supported by Chairman Powell, overcoming internal disagreements, and the market anticipates up to three more cuts by March next year [3]. - A recent Bank of America survey indicates that 67% of fund managers believe in a "soft landing" for the economy, while only 10% fear a recession [4]. Group 2: Historical Context - Historical data shows that global and European stock markets typically benefit from Fed rate cuts, especially when no recession follows, leading to stronger stock performance [5]. - Barclays' strategist Emmanuel Cau found that in past instances of rate cuts without subsequent recession, European stocks often outperformed U.S. stocks [5]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Concerns - Despite overall optimism, some market participants express caution regarding the sustainability of the current market rally, noting that rate cuts do not guarantee immediate stock market gains [6]. - Concerns arise about the sources of upward momentum in the market, as institutional investors are heavily invested, and stock buybacks are slowing down [7]. - The current market rally is largely driven by a few "star stocks," indicating a narrow breadth of market participation, which raises concerns about overall market health [8]. Group 4: Investment Strategy Recommendations - Strategists suggest diversifying investments beyond the U.S. market, as historical trends indicate that global markets benefit from Fed rate cuts [9]. - There is a recommendation to consider European and other international stocks as potential opportunities, especially given their performance relative to U.S. stocks during similar economic conditions [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market had fully priced in the Fed's rate cut, leading to a "buy the rumor, sell the fact" situation. There are also uncertainties such as stagflation, hard landing, and geopolitical issues, which may cause the market sentiment to turn cautious [3][8]. - Fundamentally, the theoretical output on the supply - side has increased slightly, but the actual supply of aluminum ingots is expected to be limited due to the high proportion of molten aluminum. Consumption continues to improve marginally, and demand is expected to pick up rapidly due to pre - holiday stocking [3][8]. - Considering the adjustment of macro - sentiment and the favorable supply - demand outlook, aluminum prices are expected to remain strongly volatile [3][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | 2025/9/12 | 2025/9/19 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LME Aluminum 3 - month | 2701 | 2676 | - 25.0 | yuan/ton | | SHFE Aluminum Continuous Three | 21060 | 20790 | - 270.0 | dollars/ton | | Shanghai - London Aluminum Ratio | 7.8 | 7.8 | 0.0 | | | LME Spot Premium | 6.35 | 5.43 | - 0.9 | dollars/ton | | LME Aluminum Inventory | 485275 | 513900 | 28625.0 | tons | | SHFE Aluminum Warehouse Receipt Inventory | 72469 | 71959 | - 510.0 | tons | | Spot Average Price | 20818 | 20872 | 54.0 | yuan/ton | | Spot Premium/Discount | - 40 | - 20 | 20.0 | yuan/ton | | Southern Storage Spot Average Price | 20762 | 20828 | 66.0 | yuan/ton | | Shanghai - Guangdong Price Difference | 56 | 44 | - 12.0 | yuan/ton | | Aluminum Ingot Social Inventory | 62.5 | 63.8 | 1.3 | tons | | Theoretical Average Cost of Electrolytic Aluminum | 16383.85 | 16301.97 | - 81.9 | yuan/ton | | Weekly Average Profit of Electrolytic Aluminum | 4434.15 | 4570.03 | 135.9 | yuan/ton | [4] 3.2 Market Review - The weekly average price of the spot market was 20872 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan/ton from last week; the weekly average price of the Southern Storage spot was 20828 yuan/ton, up 66 yuan/ton from last week [5]. - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25%. After the FOMC statement, the probability of a Fed rate cut in October is over 90%. US economic data shows a slowdown in some indicators [6]. - In China, in August, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.2% year - on - year, and the service production index increased by 5.6% year - on - year [6]. - The downstream aluminum processing industry's operating rate rose 0.1 percentage points to 62.2%. Aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 1.3 tons to 63.8 tons, and aluminum rod inventory increased by 0.25 tons to 13.5 tons [3][7][8]. 3.3 Market Outlook - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected. The market expects two more rate cuts this year, but Powell's speech increased uncertainty. China's economic data in August continued the pattern of overall slowdown with structural highlights [3][8]. - On the supply side, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains stable, mainly through capacity replacement. Due to the ramping - up of some previously replaced capacities, production has slightly increased recently. On the consumption side, the downstream aluminum processing operating rate continued to rise, but the increase was limited due to high aluminum prices. Aluminum ingot social inventory increased slightly [3][8]. - Considering the macro and fundamental factors, aluminum prices are expected to remain strongly volatile [3][8]. 3.4 Industry News - The preliminary estimate of the retail market of narrow - sense passenger cars in September is about 2.15 million units, a 6.5% month - on - month increase and a 2.0% year - on - year increase. The retail volume of new energy vehicles is expected to reach about 1.25 million, with a penetration rate of 58.1% [9]. - The US Department of Commerce plans to include more products derived from steel and aluminum products in the tariff scope, and will consider requests for additional tariffs on more imported auto parts in the coming weeks [9]. 3.5 Related Charts The report provides 10 charts, including the price trends of LME Aluminum 3 - SHFE Aluminum Continuous Three, the Shanghai - London Aluminum ratio, LME Aluminum premium/discount, etc., to show the market situation of aluminum [10][11][16].

Monetary Policy Impact - On September 17, the Federal Reserve "restarted" interest rate cuts, lowering the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 4.0% and 4.25%[2] - This 25 basis point cut was anticipated due to recent economic indicators showing a slowdown, particularly in non-farm employment[2] - The Fed's cautious stance suggests a likelihood of another 25 basis point cut in October, while December's expectations remain uncertain[2] Historical Context - The Fed has previously experienced seven instances of "hawkish rate cuts" after pausing, often in response to confirmed economic weakness or crisis events[2] - The current rate cut is categorized as a "preventive rate cut," similar to historical instances in 1985, 1995, and 2002, which reflect economic uncertainty but aim for a soft landing[3] Market Reactions - Historical analysis shows that "preventive" rate cuts tend to positively influence emerging market stocks, growth stocks, and commodities, while the dollar may weaken[3] - Following the Fed's rate cut, global stock performance is likely to depend on the U.S. economic fundamentals, with past instances showing varied outcomes based on economic conditions[3] Economic Indicators - The Fed's median projections for GDP growth from 2025 to 2027 have been revised upward to 1.6%, 1.8%, and 1.9%, respectively, while unemployment rates are expected to stabilize around 4.5%[11] - The core PCE inflation forecast remains stable, with projections of 3.0%, 2.6%, and 2.1% for the same period[11] Sector Performance - In the wake of the rate cut, sectors such as real estate and consumer goods are showing signs of recovery, with increased transaction volumes in first-tier cities and improved car sales[4] - Commodity prices, particularly for coking coal and industrial silicon, have seen upward trends, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics[4]

Core Viewpoint - TA Securities suggests that a sudden 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve could initially boost stocks in interest-sensitive sectors like real estate and utilities, but it may also heighten concerns about the severity of economic weakness compared to market expectations [1] Group 1: Impact on Sectors - A rate cut could positively impact real estate and utilities, which are sensitive to interest rates [1] - Concerns may arise regarding the Federal Reserve's perception of economic weakness, potentially shifting market sentiment from a "soft landing" to a "hard landing" scenario [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Reactions - The transition in sentiment could lead to a more severe market correction, particularly affecting cyclical sectors such as energy and industrials [1] - Even the technology sector may face valuation pressures unless companies demonstrate resilient earnings [1]