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施罗德投资:当前固收投资应等待更好的 入场时机
Sou Hu Wang· 2025-09-30 05:08
Group 1 - The assessment of "neutral interest rate" is a critical part of a central bank's monetary policy framework, influenced by factors such as productivity growth and demographic changes [1] - Schroders believes that the perception of how close central banks are to the "neutral interest rate" is more important than the actual level, as it affects their response to new data [1] - The European Central Bank (ECB) considers its current policy rate close to neutral, having halved its rate since mid-2024, while the market anticipates the Federal Reserve will reach neutral rates in the coming quarters [1] Group 2 - Schroders assesses a 60% probability for a "soft landing" of the US economy, with a 30% chance of a "hard landing" and 10% for "no landing" [2] - The current US Treasury yields have significantly decreased, reflecting market predictions of a 50% chance of a "hard landing" for the US economy [2] - The US labor market is currently stagnant, with companies adopting a cautious approach to hiring and layoffs, indicating high uncertainty [2] Group 3 - Schroders maintains that the necessity for further rate cuts by the ECB is limited, a view supported by recent statements from ECB President Lagarde [3] - The yield curve may steepen due to deteriorating supply-demand dynamics for long-term bonds, with slight upward movement in Eurozone bond yields expected [3] - Schroders is cautiously optimistic about certain investment opportunities, particularly in agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS), covered bonds, and emerging market bonds, while remaining patient regarding corporate credit [3]
美联储降息后,投资者的下一个焦点是啥?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-25 07:20
竞泰资本 近日,美联储如期降息后,投资者的关注重点变了。现在最关心的不是"降不降",而是——美国经济能不能稳住,让股市在历史高位继续往上走? 这次降息,美联储主席鲍威尔成功说服了内部有分歧的决策层,推动了周三的降息决定。市场普遍认为,这还只是开始——到明年3月前,可能还要再降 三次息。 但要注意:降息≠股市立刻大涨。 首先,降息的"立竿见影"效果其实没那么强。历史数据显示:在美联储长期暂停加息后首次降息的一个月内,标普500指数大约有一半的时间是没涨甚至 下跌的。不过,如果拉长到一年后看,股市的表现通常会好很多。 虽然借钱成本变低了,对经济和市场是好事,但这种好处能不能很快见效,还得看接下来几个月的情况。真正关键的是:大家得相信经济不会"硬着 陆"(也就是陷入衰退)。只有大家觉得"经济没事",才敢继续往股市里投钱,推动股价走高。 一份来自美国银行的最新调查显示:67% 的基金经理认为经济会"软着陆"(温和放缓,没问题);18% 认为会"不着陆"(根本不减速,继续增长);只有 10% 担心会出现衰退。 这份普遍乐观的情绪,目前正支撑着股市。但这也带来一个风险:如果接下来哪个月的经济数据突然变差,比如就业下滑、消 ...
铝周报:美联储降息靴子落地,铝价冲高回落-20250922
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market had fully priced in the Fed's rate cut, leading to a "buy the rumor, sell the fact" situation. There are also uncertainties such as stagflation, hard landing, and geopolitical issues, which may cause the market sentiment to turn cautious [3][8]. - Fundamentally, the theoretical output on the supply - side has increased slightly, but the actual supply of aluminum ingots is expected to be limited due to the high proportion of molten aluminum. Consumption continues to improve marginally, and demand is expected to pick up rapidly due to pre - holiday stocking [3][8]. - Considering the adjustment of macro - sentiment and the favorable supply - demand outlook, aluminum prices are expected to remain strongly volatile [3][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | 2025/9/12 | 2025/9/19 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LME Aluminum 3 - month | 2701 | 2676 | - 25.0 | yuan/ton | | SHFE Aluminum Continuous Three | 21060 | 20790 | - 270.0 | dollars/ton | | Shanghai - London Aluminum Ratio | 7.8 | 7.8 | 0.0 | | | LME Spot Premium | 6.35 | 5.43 | - 0.9 | dollars/ton | | LME Aluminum Inventory | 485275 | 513900 | 28625.0 | tons | | SHFE Aluminum Warehouse Receipt Inventory | 72469 | 71959 | - 510.0 | tons | | Spot Average Price | 20818 | 20872 | 54.0 | yuan/ton | | Spot Premium/Discount | - 40 | - 20 | 20.0 | yuan/ton | | Southern Storage Spot Average Price | 20762 | 20828 | 66.0 | yuan/ton | | Shanghai - Guangdong Price Difference | 56 | 44 | - 12.0 | yuan/ton | | Aluminum Ingot Social Inventory | 62.5 | 63.8 | 1.3 | tons | | Theoretical Average Cost of Electrolytic Aluminum | 16383.85 | 16301.97 | - 81.9 | yuan/ton | | Weekly Average Profit of Electrolytic Aluminum | 4434.15 | 4570.03 | 135.9 | yuan/ton | [4] 3.2 Market Review - The weekly average price of the spot market was 20872 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan/ton from last week; the weekly average price of the Southern Storage spot was 20828 yuan/ton, up 66 yuan/ton from last week [5]. - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25%. After the FOMC statement, the probability of a Fed rate cut in October is over 90%. US economic data shows a slowdown in some indicators [6]. - In China, in August, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.2% year - on - year, and the service production index increased by 5.6% year - on - year [6]. - The downstream aluminum processing industry's operating rate rose 0.1 percentage points to 62.2%. Aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 1.3 tons to 63.8 tons, and aluminum rod inventory increased by 0.25 tons to 13.5 tons [3][7][8]. 3.3 Market Outlook - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected. The market expects two more rate cuts this year, but Powell's speech increased uncertainty. China's economic data in August continued the pattern of overall slowdown with structural highlights [3][8]. - On the supply side, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains stable, mainly through capacity replacement. Due to the ramping - up of some previously replaced capacities, production has slightly increased recently. On the consumption side, the downstream aluminum processing operating rate continued to rise, but the increase was limited due to high aluminum prices. Aluminum ingot social inventory increased slightly [3][8]. - Considering the macro and fundamental factors, aluminum prices are expected to remain strongly volatile [3][8]. 3.4 Industry News - The preliminary estimate of the retail market of narrow - sense passenger cars in September is about 2.15 million units, a 6.5% month - on - month increase and a 2.0% year - on - year increase. The retail volume of new energy vehicles is expected to reach about 1.25 million, with a penetration rate of 58.1% [9]. - The US Department of Commerce plans to include more products derived from steel and aluminum products in the tariff scope, and will consider requests for additional tariffs on more imported auto parts in the coming weeks [9]. 3.5 Related Charts The report provides 10 charts, including the price trends of LME Aluminum 3 - SHFE Aluminum Continuous Three, the Shanghai - London Aluminum ratio, LME Aluminum premium/discount, etc., to show the market situation of aluminum [10][11][16].
宏观与资产论(20250921):“重启”降息,对资产有何影响?
Western Securities· 2025-09-21 06:41
Monetary Policy Impact - On September 17, the Federal Reserve "restarted" interest rate cuts, lowering the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 4.0% and 4.25%[2] - This 25 basis point cut was anticipated due to recent economic indicators showing a slowdown, particularly in non-farm employment[2] - The Fed's cautious stance suggests a likelihood of another 25 basis point cut in October, while December's expectations remain uncertain[2] Historical Context - The Fed has previously experienced seven instances of "hawkish rate cuts" after pausing, often in response to confirmed economic weakness or crisis events[2] - The current rate cut is categorized as a "preventive rate cut," similar to historical instances in 1985, 1995, and 2002, which reflect economic uncertainty but aim for a soft landing[3] Market Reactions - Historical analysis shows that "preventive" rate cuts tend to positively influence emerging market stocks, growth stocks, and commodities, while the dollar may weaken[3] - Following the Fed's rate cut, global stock performance is likely to depend on the U.S. economic fundamentals, with past instances showing varied outcomes based on economic conditions[3] Economic Indicators - The Fed's median projections for GDP growth from 2025 to 2027 have been revised upward to 1.6%, 1.8%, and 1.9%, respectively, while unemployment rates are expected to stabilize around 4.5%[11] - The core PCE inflation forecast remains stable, with projections of 3.0%, 2.6%, and 2.1% for the same period[11] Sector Performance - In the wake of the rate cut, sectors such as real estate and consumer goods are showing signs of recovery, with increased transaction volumes in first-tier cities and improved car sales[4] - Commodity prices, particularly for coking coal and industrial silicon, have seen upward trends, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics[4]
TA Securities:美联储若降息50bp 可能提振对利率敏感的行业股票
Ge Long Hui A P P· 2025-09-17 12:47
格隆汇9月17日|TA Securities表示,美联储若突然降息50个基点,最初可能提振房地产和公用事业等对 利率敏感的行业股票,但也可能加剧人们的担忧,即美联储认为经济疲软的程度比市场预期的要严重。 这种从"软着陆"到"硬着陆"的转变可能会打击市场情绪,引发更剧烈的回调,尤其是在能源和工业等周 期性行业。即使是科技行业也可能面临估值压力,除非公司盈利证明具有弹性。 ...
美联储重磅!特朗普,宣布了!
中国基金报· 2025-09-06 16:06
Group 1 - The core candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chair are Kevin Hassett, Christopher Waller, and Kevin Walsh, as stated by President Trump [4][5][6] - Trump's criticism of Jerome Powell's decision to maintain interest rates has intensified, especially following the release of weak employment data [6][8] - The latest non-farm payroll report indicates only 22,000 jobs were added in August, significantly below expectations, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3% [8][10] Group 2 - Investors are increasingly betting on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with expectations of a 25 basis point cut in mid-September, and a possibility of a 50 basis point cut [9][10] - The current employment data suggests that initiating a rate cut is reasonable, drawing parallels to past instances where the Fed acted in response to weak job growth [9][10] - The employment market in the U.S. is showing signs of weakness, with a "tight balance" state where employees find it increasingly difficult to secure new jobs after layoffs [10]
【UNFX课堂】鹰的姿态,鸽的困境:鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔的微妙平衡术
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-19 05:42
Group 1 - The global financial market is closely watching the Jackson Hole event, interpreting Jerome Powell's upcoming speech as a reaffirmation of a hawkish stance [1] - The unexpected surge in the Producer Price Index (PPI) serves as a warning about cost-push inflation, providing hawkish members of the Federal Reserve with ammunition to resist rate cuts [1] - There are signs of a global economic slowdown, with central banks in Australia, New Zealand, and China expected to adopt more accommodative policies, putting pressure on the Fed to maintain its tightening stance [1][2] Group 2 - Powell is balancing the need to address inflation concerns while acknowledging economic downturn risks, emphasizing "data dependency" to maintain credibility while allowing for flexible policy adjustments [2] - Market reactions will be nuanced; if Powell's speech aligns with expectations, there may be little volatility, but a more hawkish tone could trigger a risk-off sentiment, impacting the dollar and stock prices [2] - Investors must prepare for multiple policy scenarios, emphasizing the importance of flexibility and keen insight into key data in this uncertain environment [3][4]
美银:全球投资者情绪自2025年2月以来最为乐观
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-11 07:23
Group 1 - Global investor sentiment is at its highest level since February 2025, indicating increased optimism among investors [1] - The likelihood of a hard landing for the economy has decreased to the lowest level since January 2025, suggesting improved economic stability [1] - The allocation to stocks has increased, although it has not yet reached extreme levels, reflecting a cautious but positive outlook [1] Group 2 - 78% of respondents expect short-term interest rates to decline within the next 12 months, indicating expectations of a more accommodative monetary policy [1] - 20% of respondents believe that Waller is the most likely candidate to become the next Federal Reserve Chair, while 19% favor Haskett and 15% favor Waller, showing varied opinions on future leadership [1]
施罗德:经济“软着陆”依然是基准情境 进一步上调对担保债券的评级
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-08-07 07:50
Group 1 - The core view of the company is that the current economic scenario is still leaning towards a "soft landing," with only a slight increase in the probability of a "no landing" scenario to 25% and a decrease in the "hard landing" scenario to 10% [1] - The resilience of the U.S. labor market continues to support the "soft landing" scenario, with stable job growth and corporate profitability not being challenged [1][2] - The company observes signs of recovery in the Eurozone, particularly in Germany, indicating a clearer path for economic recovery despite the lack of synchronized growth across the region [3] Group 2 - The U.K. economy remains weak, with growth expected to be particularly sluggish in Q2 2025, but the company believes it is nearing a turning point for recovery due to improving credit conditions and stable real income [4] - The company expresses a cautious stance on long-duration bonds due to rising risks associated with long-term national debt, while favoring covered bonds and mortgage-backed securities for their attractive spreads and lower volatility [5] - In the credit market, the company has generally downgraded the outlook for various credit assets due to historically low credit spreads, although it maintains a preference for high-quality short-term bonds [5]
美联储理事沃勒:尽管特朗普对美联储有所评论,市场对通胀预期仍保持稳定
news flash· 2025-07-18 13:29
Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Board members are focused on their responsibilities rather than the President's comments, maintaining stable market inflation expectations despite presidential remarks [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Federal Reserve's Focus - Federal Reserve Governor Waller emphasized that the board members are concentrating on their duties and not on the President's statements [1] Inflation Expectations - The market's inflation expectations remain stable, with no signs of rising long-term inflation expectations observed [1] Economic Stability - The primary goal of the Federal Reserve is to prevent an economic hard landing [1]