基本面： 周三（11月19日）亚盘时段，现货黄金守住隔夜反弹空间维持震荡，目前暂交投于4065美元附近。周二（11月18日）出炉的美国最新就业数据全面崩盘，直 接把美联储12月降息预期从谷底拉回50%附近，现货黄金从盘盘中触及的一周低点3998美元暴力反弹，盘中最高摸到4080美元，最终收涨0.54%报4067.44美 元，疲软数据提升了市场对12月降息的希望，为黄金多头带来喘息。 日线级别，金价昨日录得较长下影线阳线收盘显示多头韧性，盘中一度刺透4000美元关口寻找支撑并最终报收4067美元附近，或令短期市场陷入胶着，但日 线图表隐含右侧次高黄昏星形态或仍暗示短期面临回撤风险，或继续关注4000美元关口短期测试挑战。1--4小时级别，短线走势自4245高点下跌至本周盘中 美国标普500指数连续第四个交易日收低，创下三个月最长连跌纪录；道琼斯工业指数重挫近500点，跌幅超过1%；纳斯达克指数下跌1.21%，科技股成为重 灾区。与此同时，美债成为避险资金的避风港，10年期美债收益率下跌1个基点至4.123%，两年期收益率大跌2.7个基点至3.583%，长短端利差扩大至54个基 点。 最新数据触目惊心：10月中旬 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a significant downturn in the U.S. labor market, as evidenced by the July non-farm payroll report showing only 73,000 new jobs added, far below the expected 106,000 [3] - The downward revisions of previous months' employment data indicate a troubling trend, with May's figures adjusted from +144,000 to +19,000 and June's from +147,000 to +14,000, marking the largest downward adjustment since the COVID-19 pandemic [3] - Market expectations for a shift in Federal Reserve policy have intensified, with an 80.9% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming September meeting, reflecting growing uncertainty within the Fed [3] Group 2 - In the silver market, paper silver is currently trading above 8.544, with a reported price of 8.560, indicating a short-term bullish trend [1] - Key resistance levels for paper silver are identified in the range of 8.563 to 8.582, while support levels are noted between 8.400 and 8.467 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The future rise in gold prices is contingent on ETF fund inflows being reignited, which requires the Federal Reserve to fulfill interest rate cut expectations and drive down U.S. real yields, with deteriorating employment data being the strongest bullish catalyst [1][9]. Group 1: ETF Inflows and Gold Prices - Continuous central bank gold purchases provide support for gold prices, but further increases in ETF inflows and futures long positions are necessary for gold to break above $3,400 per ounce [6]. - Since May, gold prices have been oscillating between $3,200 and $3,400 per ounce, influenced by trade agreements between the Philippines, Japan, and the U.S. and Europe [3]. - Morgan Stanley predicts that a net increase of 715 tons (+22%) in global gold ETF holdings this year is crucial for gold prices to reach $4,000 per ounce by early next year [7]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Predictions - The strongest bullish scenario for gold prices would arise from significant deterioration in U.S. labor market data, prompting the Federal Reserve to cut rates, which would lead to increased demand for gold ETFs and a substantial price reaction [11]. - The evolution of inflation and labor dynamics will be critical in determining the intensity of the gold market's response, with the most significant reactions expected from evident weakness in U.S. employment data [10]. - The market currently assigns a 63% probability to a rate cut in September, with expectations of cumulative cuts of about 43 basis points by the end of 2025 [9].