在纸白银的市场走势中，上方的阻力位应关注8.563-8.582区间，而下方的支撑位则需留意8.400-8.467区间。 最新美国非农就业报告显示，7月新增就业仅7.3万人，远低于预期的10.6万人，且前值大幅下修25.8万至3.3万。5月份 数据下修12.5万，从+14.4万下修为+1.9万。6月份数据下调了13.3万人，从+14.7万人下调至+1.4万人。这一巨大的"统计 回摆"已经超出了常规的季节性调整范畴。这是自新冠疫情以来最大幅度的向下修正。 这一数据不仅暴露美国劳动力市场加速恶化的趋势，更引发市场对美联储政策转向的强烈预期。CME集团数据显示， 市场对美联储9月17日会议降息25个基点的概率已升至80.9%，而美联储内部罕见出现两名理事反对维持利率的分歧， 进一步凸显政策不确定性。 今日周一(8月4日)亚盘时段，纸白银目前交投于8.544一线上方，今日开盘于8.544元/克，截至发稿，纸白银暂报8.560 元/克，上涨0.19%，最高触及8.560元/克，最低下探8.467元/克，目前来看，纸白银盘内短线偏向看涨走势。 【最新纸白银行情解析】 【要闻速递】 非农数据整体呈现收缩态势，美元指数已从10 ...

Core Viewpoint - The future rise in gold prices is contingent on ETF fund inflows being reignited, which requires the Federal Reserve to fulfill interest rate cut expectations and drive down U.S. real yields, with deteriorating employment data being the strongest bullish catalyst [1][9]. Group 1: ETF Inflows and Gold Prices - Continuous central bank gold purchases provide support for gold prices, but further increases in ETF inflows and futures long positions are necessary for gold to break above $3,400 per ounce [6]. - Since May, gold prices have been oscillating between $3,200 and $3,400 per ounce, influenced by trade agreements between the Philippines, Japan, and the U.S. and Europe [3]. - Morgan Stanley predicts that a net increase of 715 tons (+22%) in global gold ETF holdings this year is crucial for gold prices to reach $4,000 per ounce by early next year [7]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Predictions - The strongest bullish scenario for gold prices would arise from significant deterioration in U.S. labor market data, prompting the Federal Reserve to cut rates, which would lead to increased demand for gold ETFs and a substantial price reaction [11]. - The evolution of inflation and labor dynamics will be critical in determining the intensity of the gold market's response, with the most significant reactions expected from evident weakness in U.S. employment data [10]. - The market currently assigns a 63% probability to a rate cut in September, with expectations of cumulative cuts of about 43 basis points by the end of 2025 [9].