Core Viewpoint - The decline in U.S. Treasury yields continues a trend following President Trump's decision to rule out military action regarding the acquisition of Greenland and retract threats of tariffs on European countries [1] Group 1: U.S. Treasury Yields - U.S. Treasury yields have decreased, with the 10-year yield falling by 1.2 basis points to 4.239%, retreating from a five-month high of 4.313% reached earlier in the week [1] - Analysts at SEB expect that U.S. Treasury yields will "retrace much of the recent gains" [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - The sharp sell-off in Japanese government bonds that impacted global bond markets has calmed down [1] - There remains a risk of renewed tensions between the U.S. and Europe, alongside concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve [1]

Core Viewpoint - If the Federal Reserve softens its tone, U.S. Treasury yields may decline, reflecting potential market reactions to any unexpected or rapid changes in interest rate expectations [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Expectations - The market generally anticipates that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged, but speculation about a possible rate cut in September is increasing [1] - Attention is focused on the wording of the Federal Reserve's statements and whether officials Waller and Bowman will express differing opinions, as they have previously indicated a preference for a more accommodative monetary policy [1]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices experienced a significant drop, trading around $3390.53 per ounce after reaching a high of $3433.37, the highest since June 16, with a closing price of $3431.59, marking a 1% increase [2] - The decline in the US dollar, which fell 0.3% to 97.545, contributed to the rise in gold prices, supported by global trade uncertainties and a decrease in US Treasury yields [2] - The upcoming tariff negotiations and the Federal Reserve meeting at the end of the month are critical variables for gold price movements, with potential for a pullback if negotiations yield positive results [2][3] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - Gold has shown a strong upward trend, with three consecutive days of gains, indicating robust short-term momentum [3] - The market is currently in an overbought state, suggesting a need for price correction, but the lack of orderly trading may suppress short-term demand [3][5] - Key resistance levels are identified at $3410-$3420, while support levels are at $3370-$3360, indicating a complex trading environment [5] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - Brent crude oil prices rebounded to around $69 per barrel, while WTI crude hovered around $66, following positive developments in trade negotiations [6] - The optimism surrounding new tariff agreements has improved market sentiment, although concerns about global economic slowdown continue to weigh on oil demand [6] - The current rebound in oil prices reflects short-term trading sentiment rather than a substantial recovery in demand, with ongoing pressures from weak global consumption and geopolitical risks [6] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Oil - The mid-term outlook for oil remains upward, with the potential to test $78, although short-term momentum indicators suggest a weakening bullish trend [7] - Short-term price movements are expected to be volatile, with resistance levels at $67.5-$68.5 and support levels at $63.5-$62.5 [7]