Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The ongoing conflict in the Middle East, especially the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, is the key factor affecting the prices of various commodities, including oil, metals, and chemicals. The uncertainty of the war has led to increased price volatility and supply concerns in the market [2]. - The Fed's monetary policy and inflation expectations also have an impact on the prices of precious metals and other assets. The market is closely watching the Fed's meeting guidance [3]. - The demand and supply fundamentals of different industries vary, and some industries are facing challenges such as high inventory levels, while others are showing signs of improvement. Summary by Category 1. Energy and Petrochemicals - **Crude Oil**: The core variable of oil price trends depends on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. With a daily supply gap of over ten million barrels, it is difficult to fill. Oil prices are likely to remain high before the strait is safe for passage, but market sentiment is cautious, and price fluctuations may intensify [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The market focus is on the Strait's passage capacity. Supply constraints remain unsolved, and the market is likely to run strongly in the short term [22]. - **Asphalt**: The April refinery production plan is at a low level. The BU futures price is expected to be strong, but it is necessary to be vigilant about the potential pressure from crude oil price corrections [23]. - **Urea**: Supply is high, agricultural demand support is weakening, and the short - term market is expected to fluctuate within a range [24]. - **Methanol**: Import arrivals in coastal areas are decreasing, and the market is expected to run strongly due to tightened imports, reduced domestic supply, and recovering demand [25]. - **Pure Benzene**: Refineries are reducing production defensively, and the short - term market is affected by cost and supply. Attention should be paid to geopolitical risks [26]. - **Benzene Ethylene**: There are expectations of both supply and demand reduction, and the fundamentals have certain support [27]. - **Polypropylene & Plastic & Propylene**: Propylene demand is picking up; polyethylene supply pressure is alleviating, and polypropylene supply is expected to shrink, but demand follow - up is insufficient [28]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC is expected to run strongly in the short term; caustic soda follows market sentiment, but there may be large fluctuations [29]. - **PX & PTA**: High - level oscillations due to supply uncertainties; there is negative feedback pressure from the downstream [30]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Driven by cost and supply, prices are rising, but there is also negative feedback from the downstream. It will oscillate at a high level in the short term [31]. 2. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals continue to oscillate. The high oil price intensifies inflation concerns, and they are suppressed by the weakening expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut [3]. - **Copper**: Copper prices fall overnight. The market is concerned about high inventory and the war situation. The price adjustment is supported by spot buying, but the war and high inventory may lead to further price decline [4]. - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai aluminum price falls overnight. Domestic inventory is at a high level, while overseas supply concerns are increasing. The price fluctuates sharply at a high level [5]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The market is lackluster, and the price follows the aluminum price. The price difference with Shanghai aluminum remains above 1,000 yuan [6]. - **Alumina**: The operating capacity stabilizes, the surplus situation improves, and the short - term market is affected by the expected mineral policy in Guinea [7]. - **Zinc**: Domestic zinc ingots need to reduce inventory through price cuts. The zinc price is under pressure, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [8]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel fluctuates narrowly. The strong US dollar exerts pressure. The upstream price rebound supports the mid - stream. The overall trend is weak and oscillating [10]. - **Tin**: Tin prices continue to fall, and it is expected to oscillate weakly towards 350,000 yuan [11]. 3. Building Materials and Related Products - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: Steel prices rise at night. Rebar demand is improving, and inventory accumulation is slowing down. The hot - rolled coil demand is getting better, but inventory pressure remains. The market is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [15]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore futures price oscillates. Supply is increasing, and it is expected to enter the seasonal de - stocking stage. Demand is recovering, and the price is expected to oscillate [16]. - **Coke**: The coke price oscillates upward. Coking profit is average, inventory changes little, and the price may be affected by geopolitical conflicts [17]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal price oscillates upward. Coal mine production is increasing, and the price may be affected by energy concerns [18]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The price oscillates upward. The international conflict is beneficial to the cost of manganese ore, and the price is likely to oscillate strongly [19]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price oscillates upward. The main production areas are turning profitable, demand is resilient, and the price is likely to oscillate strongly [20]. - **Glass**: The glass price oscillates weakly. Inventory is high, demand improvement is limited, and the price is likely to oscillate in a wide range [33]. - **20 - Rubber & Natural Rubber & Butadiene Rubber**: Rubber prices are affected by the rise of crude oil prices and supply - demand changes. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [34]. - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash price falls from a high level. Inventory is still under pressure. It is recommended to consider short - selling on the right side after the market sentiment fades [35]. 4. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal & Rapeseed Meal**: The trading logic may shift to Sino - US trade relations. The short - term prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal will follow Sino - US relations and Brazilian shipping conditions [36]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil & Rapeseed Oil**: Oils oscillate strongly. Palm oil performs the best. The energy situation and fertilizer supply in the Middle East affect the cost and yield of new - season crops [37]. - **Soybean No. 1**: The soybean No. 1 futures contract is relatively resistant to decline. It is affected by the energy situation and fertilizer supply in the Middle East [38]. - **Corn**: The corn price in the north port rises slightly. In the overall high - yield pattern, the social hidden inventory may increase. The futures price may return to the fundamental level after the Middle East situation stabilizes [39]. - **Pigs**: The pig spot price remains low and oscillates. The far - month contract premium is high. It is recommended to buy the far - month contract at a low price after the premium narrows [40]. - **Eggs**: The egg spot price is stable, and the futures price is weak. The number of newly - laid hens is expected to be small in the first half of the year. It is recommended to buy at a low price [41]. - **Cotton**: The Zhengzhou cotton price falls slightly. The issuance of import quotas has a limited impact on the market, and the short - term trend is oscillating [42]. - **Sugar**: The international market focuses on the new - season Brazilian sugar production. The domestic sugar market is in a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation [43]. - **Apples**: The apple futures price oscillates at a high level. Demand in the northwest is good, but the quality and inventory in Shandong are problems. It is recommended to wait and see [44]. - **Timber**: The timber futures price oscillates. Supply is tight in the short term, demand is recovering, and low inventory supports the price. It is recommended to wait and see [45]. - **Pulp**: The pulp futures price falls sharply. The inventory is still high, and the downstream demand is general. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [46]. 5. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The A - share market shows a pattern of shrinking volume and rising and then falling. The market is expected to oscillate strongly in the medium term, and attention should be paid to the rotation of market styles [47]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures rise. The bond market shows an oversold rebound. The long - end may continue to repair, and the curve may continue to steepen in the short term [48]. 6. Shipping - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The shipping price is expected to rise, but there is also the pressure of cargo mixing in the market. The medium - term market may be affected by the development of the Middle East war [21].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily report on Shanghai copper futures, released on March 17, 2026, by Guantong Futures [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core View - Macro factors are suppressing copper prices, while fundamental support is weak. The copper market remains bearish in the short - term, with its financial attributes playing a dominant role [1] Group 4: Market Conditions Analysis Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Shanghai copper opened low and moved lower, declining during the day [1][4] - Spot: The spot premium in East China was - 100 yuan/ton, and in South China was - 25 yuan/ton. On March 16, 2026, the LME official price was 12,840 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was - 80.5 US dollars/ton [4] Supply - side - In February 2026, China imported 2.31 million tons of copper concentrates and ores, a year - on - year increase of 6.0% and a month - on - month decrease of 12.0%. The domestic copper concentrate inventory is at a relatively low level compared to previous years. Overseas copper resources are tight, and shipping is difficult due to the war, which supports copper prices. The refined - scrap copper price difference in mainstream areas has declined. The electrolytic copper production in March increased by 52,800 tons month - on - month and 6.51% year - on - year [1] - As of March 16, the spot smelting fee (TC) was - 60.12 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 6.10 US cents/pound [8] Demand - side - After entering the "Golden March and Silver April", the copper products sector has seen an increase in production starts. In February, the operating rate of the copper cable industry was 55.81%, a month - on - month decrease of 14.29 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 9.06 percentage points. However, the terminal data shows no optimistic performance, and the terminal's feedback on copper prices is weak. The production and sales of new energy vehicles were 694,000 and 765,000 respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 21.8% and 14.2% [1] Inventory - SHFE copper inventory was 324,300 tons, an increase of 1,291 tons from the previous period. As of March 16, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 83,900 tons, a decrease of 0.63 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 311,600 tons, with a change of + - 225 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 589,800 short tons, a decrease of 598 short tons from the previous period [11]

Core Viewpoint - The current temporary Federal Reserve Governor, Milan, is uncertain about his future after his term ends this weekend, but he will remain in his position until his successor is confirmed [1] Group 1 - Milan's attendance at the March Federal Reserve meeting depends on the Senate's confirmation timeline for the nomination of Walsh [1] - If the confirmation process takes longer than six weeks, Milan will attend the meeting [1]

Core Viewpoint - The potential for a dollar sell-off may intensify, particularly if the dollar index breaks below last year's low of around 96.2, which could lead to an additional 3% decline in the dollar [1] Group 1: Dollar Performance - The performance of the dollar before the Federal Reserve meeting is crucial, as a pause in interest rate cuts could provide some support for the dollar [1] - A weak rebound in the dollar, with a daily close lower, would signal a strong bearish outlook [1] Group 2: Earnings Impact - Earnings reports from companies like Meta, Microsoft, and Tesla are under scrutiny, as any results that fall short of expectations could negatively impact the dollar [1] - The U.S. consumer market is significantly influenced by stock market performance, linking corporate earnings to broader economic indicators [1]

Group 1 - The USD/INR exchange rate has risen for the fourth consecutive trading day, approaching a high of 91.55, despite the USD not being particularly strong overall [1] - The demand for USD from Indian importers is a significant factor supporting the exchange rate, as evidenced by reports of strong buying interest from importers [1] - Ongoing trade negotiations between the US and India are contributing to the uncertainty, with no agreement reached yet, leading to sustained demand for USD driven by actual trade needs [1] Group 2 - The USD index has been hovering around 98.90, showing stability despite recent volatility caused by US tariffs on several European countries [2] - Analysts suggest that while US-EU trade tensions are noteworthy, their long-term impact on the USD may be limited due to the trade structure between the parties [2] - The focus is shifting towards the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, with recent hawkish comments from officials indicating potential early adjustments to interest rates to address employment market risks [2] Group 3 - Technically, the USD/INR is positioned above the 20-day moving average, which is also trending upwards, providing support for the exchange rate [4] - The RSI indicator is around 67, indicating strong market momentum without reaching extreme overbought levels, suggesting potential for continued upward movement as long as the rate remains above the support area [4] - If the indicators quickly enter the overbought zone, the market may experience a period of consolidation [4]

Core Viewpoint - U.S. stock futures showed a slight increase as the Federal Reserve's two-day meeting is set to begin [1] Group 1 - The movement in U.S. stock futures indicates market anticipation ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy discussions [1]

Group 1 - The current spot gold price has slightly retreated, trading at $4,201 per ounce in London and $4,241 per ounce for U.S. gold [1] - Domestic gold prices have fluctuated, with brands like Chow Tai Fook and Chow Hong Ki offering gold jewelry at 1,328 yuan per gram, while other brands have seen minor price adjustments [1] - The gold recycling price is at 937 yuan per gram, with Industrial and Agricultural Bank gold bars priced at 972.23 yuan and 981.35 yuan respectively, indicating real-time price changes [1] Group 2 - Key factors supporting the high volatility of gold prices include weak U.S. ADP employment data, rising expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and a weakening dollar [3] - Upcoming economic indicators such as the PCE inflation data and the Federal Reserve meeting next week are critical events that could trigger significant market movements [3]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing fluctuations, with prices remaining above 4200, influenced by weak U.S. employment data and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, while silver shows strong performance, reaching new highs [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Gold prices fluctuated, reaching a high of 4241 before closing near 4203, indicating a potential consolidation phase [1] - Silver prices have been strong, hitting 58.95, providing support for gold and reflecting market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1] - The U.S. labor market's unexpected decline and clear signals of a more accommodative Federal Reserve policy have contributed to the rise in silver and the potential for gold to gain momentum [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis - Short-term support levels for gold are identified at 4193, with further support at 4175 and 4163, while resistance is noted at 4245 and 4265 [2][5] - The market is currently in a significant support zone, indicating a potential for correction and further testing of lower levels [2] - Recent trading patterns show a lack of continuation, with frequent high-to-low reversals, suggesting insufficient bullish momentum [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Jefferson indicated uncertainty regarding the amount of official data to be released before the upcoming meeting [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is preparing for an upcoming meeting where the release of official data is anticipated [1] - There is currently no clarity on the specific data that will be published prior to the meeting [1]

Core Insights - The US dollar experienced a slight rebound after a decline due to weak labor market data [1] - In October, US companies laid off over 150,000 employees, marking the largest monthly layoffs since 2003 [1] - The market is increasingly reliant on private data due to the absence of official data during the US government shutdown [1] - Jefferies economist Mohit Kumar noted that the outcome of the December Federal Reserve meeting is highly uncertain and largely dependent on labor market performance [1]