Core Viewpoint - The COMEX gold futures price has surpassed $3,800 for the first time, reaching a peak of $3,824.6 per ounce, marking a new historical high. The gold price has increased by over 8.5% in September and 38% year-to-date, significantly outperforming major global stock indices and bond yields [1][2]. Group 1: Price Trends and Predictions - The gold price is expected to continue rising, with Morgan Stanley predicting it will exceed $4,000 per ounce by Q1 2026, driven by the upcoming Federal Reserve rate cuts and strong investor demand [2][3]. - Goldman Sachs maintains a target price of $3,700 per ounce by the end of 2025 and $4,000 by mid-2026, highlighting the potential for gold prices to rise above $4,500 per ounce if 1% of U.S. Treasury holders shift their investments to gold [2][3]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to adopt a phased investment approach and be mindful of volatility risks, as the rapid increase in gold prices may lead to technical corrections [4][6]. - Various investment options are available for gold, including physical gold (coins, bars, jewelry) and financial products such as futures contracts, ETFs, and gold stocks [4][5]. Group 3: Market Performance - The average net asset growth rate for 20 gold ETFs this year is approximately 47%, with those tracking domestic spot gold prices averaging a 35% return, while gold stock ETFs have seen an average increase of 74% [5].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have surged significantly, with COMEX gold futures breaking the $3,800 mark and reaching a historical high of $3,824.6 per ounce, reflecting an increase of over 8.5% in September and a year-to-date rise of 38% [1][2] Price Movement - The upward trend in gold prices is attributed to factors such as the anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, concerns over stagflation in the U.S. economy, and worries regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve [2] - Morgan Stanley predicts that spot gold prices will exceed $4,000 per ounce by Q1 2026, while Goldman Sachs maintains a target of $3,700 by the end of 2025 and $4,000 by mid-2026, with potential for prices to reach $4,500 or even $5,000 under certain conditions [2][3] Investment Strategies - Industry experts recommend a phased investment approach and caution against the rapid price increases, suggesting that investors focus on long-term value rather than short-term gains [3] - Various gold assets have shown differentiated returns, with COMEX gold futures up 38.3% year-to-date and Shanghai gold futures up 36.7% [3] ETF Performance - In the domestic market, gold ETFs have exhibited significant performance variation, with an average net asset growth rate of approximately 47% for 20 gold ETFs this year. ETFs tracking domestic spot gold prices have a one-year average return of 35%, while those linked to gold stocks have seen an average growth rate of 74% [4] - Analysts suggest that the long-term upward trend in gold remains intact, recommending investors to consider buying on dips or employing a dollar-cost averaging strategy [4]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have surged significantly, with COMEX gold futures breaking the $3,800 mark for the first time on September 23, reaching a peak of $3,824.6 per ounce, marking a new historical high [1] Price Movement - International gold prices have entered a new trading range, with a cumulative increase of over 8.5% in September alone, expanding the year-to-date increase to 38%, which outpaces major global stock indices and bond yields [1] Market Sentiment - Foreign institutions are increasingly bullish on gold prices, raising their target price expectations, with some forecasts reaching as high as $5,000 [1] Influencing Factors - The recent rise in gold prices is primarily driven by the anticipated interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, concerns over stagflation risks in the U.S. economy, and worries regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve [1] Short-term Outlook - Given the heightened volatility in gold prices, it may be challenging for investors to navigate short-term market movements. Additionally, the upcoming long holiday in the domestic market may introduce further price volatility influenced by U.S. non-farm payroll data [1]

Core Viewpoint - The COMEX gold futures price has surpassed $3800 for the first time, reaching a peak of $3824.6 per ounce, marking a new historical high. The gold price has increased by over 8.5% in September and 38% year-to-date, significantly outperforming major global stock indices and bond yields [1][2]. Group 1: Price Movement and Predictions - The gold price is expected to continue rising, with Morgan Stanley predicting it will exceed $4000 per ounce by Q1 2026, driven by the upcoming Federal Reserve rate cut cycle and strong investor demand [2]. - Goldman Sachs maintains a target price of $3700 per ounce by the end of 2025 and $4000 by mid-2026, highlighting the potential for gold to rise above $4500 per ounce if the independence of the Federal Reserve is compromised [2]. - The long-term upward trend in gold prices is expected to persist, with central banks likely to increase gold allocations while reducing dollar holdings, further supporting gold prices [2]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to adopt a phased investment approach and be mindful of volatility risks, as rapid price increases may lead to technical corrections [3]. - Various investment options in gold are available, including physical gold (coins, bars, jewelry) and financial products such as futures contracts, ETFs, and gold stocks [3]. - The performance of different gold assets has varied, with COMEX gold futures showing a year-to-date increase of 38.3% and Shanghai gold futures up 36.7% [3]. Group 3: ETF Performance - The average net asset growth rate for 20 gold ETFs in the domestic market is approximately 47% this year, with those tracking domestic spot gold prices averaging a 35% return, while gold stock ETFs have seen a higher average growth rate of 74% [4]. Group 4: Risk Management - Investors are encouraged to consider buying on dips or through systematic investment plans, while those using leveraged investment tools should manage their positions carefully ahead of upcoming holidays [5]. - The Shanghai Gold Exchange has raised margin requirements and trading limits to enhance market risk control ahead of the National Day holiday in 2025 [5].

Core Insights - International gold prices reached a historic high on September 3, with London spot gold hitting $3,556.055 per ounce and COMEX gold futures reaching $3,618.6 per ounce, marking year-to-date increases of 35.37% and 36.86% respectively [1] - In the domestic market, Shanghai gold futures saw their main contract rise to a high of 819.68 yuan per gram, the highest since late April, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 31% [1] - The rise in gold prices is attributed to increased expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve, prompting recommendations to maintain long positions in gold futures [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold investment rating: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Silver investment rating: ★☆★, with a bullish bias and some potential for trading [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Overnight, the US announced an 8 - month ISM manufacturing PMI of 48.7, slightly lower than expected. The increasing expectation of a Fed rate cut and concerns about the Fed's independence have boosted the strong performance of precious metals. Maintain a long - position in precious metals [1] - Focus on the US non - farm payroll data on Friday. A continued weak performance would confirm the rate - cut expectation, while a strong performance could trigger an adjustment. Also, pay attention to the US JOLTs job openings data tonight [1] Group 3: Other Key Information - Trump will hold an emergency meeting on tariff rulings on Wednesday and may appeal to the Supreme Court as early as Wednesday. If the tariff appeal is rejected, tariffs may have to be withdrawn, and trillions of dollars may have to be refunded. Trump claims the stock market decline is due to the need for tariff policies [1] - The US Housing Finance Agency Director will present the latest information on Fed Governor Cook's mortgage fraud case at 10 am EST on Thursday [2] - Russia and the US Foreign Ministry will hold consultations [2]

Market Overview - Last week, spot gold opened at $3368.96/oz, peaked at $3453.63/oz, and closed at $3447.57/oz, with a weekly increase of 2.31% [3] - Spot silver opened at $38.918/oz, reached a high of $39.967/oz, and closed at $39.669/oz, marking a weekly rise of 2.24% [3] - The increase in gold prices was driven by heightened safe-haven demand due to concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve, political instability in France, and cooling expectations for Russia-Ukraine talks [3] - Gold prices rose 4.7% month-on-month, while silver prices increased by 8.3% [3] ETF Holdings - As of August 29, 2025, SPDR Gold Trust's holdings increased by 20.91 tons to a total of 977.68 tons [3] - iShares Silver ETF's silver holdings rose by 21.18 tons to 15,310 tons [5] CFTC Positions - There was a net increase in gold positions while silver saw a net decrease, indicating a strengthening of both investment and speculative demand for gold [10] - The report suggests investors should participate with light positions and be flexible in their trading strategies [10] Futures Market - Gold futures basis remained stable, closing at 5.45 yuan/gram, with a peak of 5.66 yuan/gram [10] - Silver futures basis declined, closing at 48 yuan/kilogram, with a high of 56 yuan/kilogram [12] Domestic and International Price Differences - The domestic and international price difference for gold fluctuated, closing at -0.10 yuan/gram [12] - The silver price difference increased, closing at 399 yuan/kilogram [13] Delivery and Inventory - Both gold and silver showed a bearish trend in deferred delivery, suggesting a focus on potential shifts in market sentiment [13]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant rise in China's A-share precious metals sector, which increased by over 8% on the first trading day of September, outperforming all other industry sectors [1] - The precious metals sector, represented by gold, saw an increase of 8.82%, with all listed precious metal stocks in A-shares experiencing gains, including notable stocks like Zhongjin Gold, Hunan Gold, and Western Gold, which hit the daily limit of approximately 10% [1] - The rise in international gold prices is attributed to increasing expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut and concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve, which has positively impacted the precious metals sector [1] Group 2 - On the same trading day, all three major A-share indices rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3875 points, up 0.46%, the Shenzhen Component Index at 12828 points, up 1.05%, and the ChiNext Index at 2956 points, up 2.29% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was approximately 27.5 billion RMB, which is a decrease of about 48.3 billion RMB compared to the previous trading day [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, the main contract price of SHFE zinc changed from rising to falling. Macroscopically, the market digested Powell's dovish speech, and the focus shifted to concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve. The risk appetite declined, dragging down the prices of risk assets. However, the PCE data in July met expectations, strengthening the expectation of an interest rate cut in September, and the US dollar declined. China's PMI in August improved slightly month - on - month but remained below the boom - bust line. Fundamentally, the processing fees for domestic zinc concentrates in September remained stable month - on - month, and those for imported ores continued to rise rapidly. Refinery maintenance in September will reduce the monthly supply of refined zinc by more than 8,000 tons, and the high import loss limits the import supplement, so the supply - side pressure eases. On the demand side, due to transportation control in the north, galvanizing enterprises have inventory backlogs and may reduce production or stop work. The consumption of die - casting zinc alloys and zinc oxide has not improved significantly. Social inventories are accumulating seasonally, but the accumulation is expected to end soon. Overseas, large traders are still in the process of picking up and transferring goods, and LME inventories continue to decline, providing support. Overall, the market risk preference switches frequently, and the macro situation is difficult to provide a trend - setting guide. The refinery maintenance eases the supply pressure, and there is an expectation of marginal improvement in consumption, which limits the downside space of zinc prices. However, the continuous inventory accumulation also dampens the enthusiasm of bulls. Therefore, it is expected that zinc prices will mainly operate in a low - level oscillation pattern, waiting for the gradual improvement of the consumption side [3][9][10]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data - From August 22 to 29, the price of SHFE zinc decreased by 135 yuan/ton to 22,140 yuan/ton; the price of LME zinc increased by 8.5 US dollars/ton to 2,814 US dollars/ton; the Shanghai - London ratio decreased by 0.07 to 7.87; the inventory of SHFE increased by 8,142 tons to 85,980 tons; the inventory of LME decreased by 11,575 tons to 56,500 tons; the social inventory decreased by 13,200 tons to 103,700 tons; the spot premium increased by 10 yuan/ton to - 30 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Market Review - The main contract price of SHFE zinc ZN2510 failed to continue rising last week, with the center of gravity moving slightly lower, mainly dragged down by concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve and the political situation in France, and the continuous inventory accumulation in China. It finally closed at 22,140 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.61%. LME zinc maintained a sideways oscillation under the influence of the cooling of market risk preference and the continuous decline of LME inventories, and finally closed at 2,814 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.3%. In the spot market, downstream buyers negotiated prices at low points during the week, but the purchasing sentiment weakened on Friday, and the spot quotation changed from a small premium to a small discount [5][6]. 3.3 Industry News - In September, the average processing fee for domestic zinc concentrates remained flat month - on - month at 3,950 yuan/metal ton, and the average processing fee for imported zinc concentrates increased by 14.71 US dollars/dry ton to 70.68 US dollars/dry ton. From January to June 2025, the global zinc market had a surplus of 47,000 tons, compared with a surplus of 246,000 tons in the same period last year. The global refined zinc production from January to June was 6.644 million tons, and the consumption was 6.597 million tons [11].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View - The medium to long - term outlook for precious metals is bullish, while the short - term remains in a range - bound pattern. It is expected that there will be a period of volatility reduction and consolidation from late May to June. The report views short - term pullbacks as medium - to - long - term buying opportunities, but prices are likely to remain high and volatile in the near term [5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Last week, COMEX precious metals oscillated slightly lower overall but rose strongly on Monday. Negative factors included the postponement of the EU 50% tariff threat deadline, the rise of US stocks, bonds, and exchange rates, good 5Y US Treasury auctions, and the Fed's cautious attitude towards rate cuts. Positive factors included the restoration of tariffs by the US Court of Appeals, Trump's invitation to meet Powell, escalating tariff concerns, and the intensification of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [2] 3.2 Fund and Inventory - **Fund Holdings**: Long - term fund holdings showed that the SPDR Gold ETF increased by 7.74 tons to 930.2 tons, and the iShares Silver ETF increased by 86.25 tons to 14303.75 tons last week. Short - term fund holdings (as of May 27) indicated that gold non - commercial net long positions increased by 10203 to 174184, and silver non - commercial net long positions increased by 2970 to 53012 [3] - **Inventory**: COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.13 tons to 1206.5 tons, and COMEX silver inventory decreased by 77.6 tons to 15427.6 tons. SHFE gold inventory remained at 17.25 tons, SHFE silver inventory increased by 106.2 tons to 1066.9 tons, and Shanghai Gold Exchange silver inventory decreased by 85.9 tons to 1396.6 tons [3] 3.3 This Week's Focus - **Data**: Pay attention to the US non - farm payrolls report on Friday night, other US employment data during the week, and US ISM manufacturing and services PMI data [3] - **Events**: Key events include speeches by Fed Chairman Powell, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, and Fed Governor Lisa Cook, as well as interest rate decisions by the Bank of Canada and the European Central Bank [3] 3.4 Price and Spread - **Precious Metal Prices**: SHFE Gold Main Contract was at 771.8 yuan/gram with a daily increase of 7.48 yuan (0.98%); CME Gold Main Contract was at 3406.4 dollars/ounce with a daily increase of 93.3 dollars (2.82%); SHFE Silver Main Contract was at 8218 yuan/kg with a daily decrease of 6 yuan (- 0.07%); CME Silver Main Contract was at 34.93 dollars/ounce with a daily increase of 1.855 dollars (5.61%) [6] - **Price Spreads**: The SHFE - TD gold spread was 3.78 yuan/gram with a daily increase of 1.95 yuan (106.56%); the SHFE - TD silver spread was 26 yuan/kg with a daily increase of 4 yuan (57.14%); the CME gold - silver ratio was 97.5208 with a daily decrease of 2.6485 (- 2.64%) [6] 3.5 Stock and Position - **Inventory**: SHFE gold inventory was 17247 kg with no change; CME gold inventory was 1192.8069 tons with a decrease of 13.6728 tons (- 1.13%); SHFE silver inventory was 1066.885 tons with an increase of 30.966 tons (2.99%); CME silver inventory was 15408.5188 tons with a decrease of 19.0654 tons (- 0.12%); SGX silver inventory was 1396.605 tons with a decrease of 85.875 tons (- 5.79%) [14] - **Position**: SHFE gold position was 181246 lots with no change; SHFE silver position was 334026 lots with no change; SPDR gold position was 933.07 tons with an increase of 2.87 tons (0.31%); SLV silver position was 14351.820036 tons with an increase of 48.0702 tons (0.34%) [14] 3.6 Stock, Bond, and Commodity Overview - **Market Indicators**: The US Dollar Index was 98.6884 with a daily decrease of 0.7524 (- 0.76%); the US Dollar against the Chinese Yuan was 7.2113 with a daily increase of 0.0488 (0.68%); the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 42270.07 points with a daily increase of 54.34 points (0.13%); WTI crude oil spot was 62.52 dollars/barrel with a daily increase of 1.73 dollars (2.85%); LmeS copper 03 was 9497 dollars/ton with a daily decrease of 70 dollars (- 0.73%) [19] - **Bond Yields**: The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.41% with a daily decrease of 0.02% (- 0.45%); the 10 - year US real interest rate was 2.13% with a daily increase of 0.06% (2.9%); the 10 - 2 year US Treasury yield spread was 0.52% with a daily increase of 0.01% (1.96%) [20]