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政府关门迫在眉睫——全球经济观察第14期【陈兴团队•财通宏观】
陈兴宏观研究· 2025-09-27 13:27
Global Asset Price Performance - Gold prices continue to rise, with London gold increasing by 2% this week [2] - European and Japanese stock markets saw gains, while US stock markets declined, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq dropping by 0.9%, 0.8%, and 0.7% respectively [2] - Global bond yields generally increased, with the 10-year US Treasury yield rising by 6 basis points [2] - Oil prices also saw an uptick, with WTI and Brent crude oil prices rising by 2.7% and 2.5% respectively [2] - The US dollar index strengthened by 0.6% [2] Major Central Bank Monetary Policies - Disagreements among Federal Reserve officials are evident, with Powell indicating economic growth is slowing and employment risks are increasing, yet maintaining a neutral stance on future policy [4] - Concerns about inflation were raised by two FOMC members, while others advocated for quicker rate cuts [4] US Economic Dynamics - New home sales in the US surged by 20.5% month-on-month in August, marking the largest monthly increase since August 2022, attributed to lower mortgage rates and increased sales incentives from builders [9] - The second quarter GDP growth rate was revised up to 3.8%, significantly higher than the initial estimate of 3% [9] - The PCE price index for August showed a year-on-year increase of 0.1 percentage points to 2.7%, indicating stable inflation pressures [9] - A potential government shutdown looms if Congress fails to reach an agreement by September 30, with significant partisan disagreements complicating negotiations [10] Other Regional Economic Dynamics - The Eurozone's manufacturing PMI fell to 49.5 in September, while the services PMI rose to 51.4, indicating a mixed economic outlook [17] - Japan's manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.4, the lowest since March, while the services PMI remained robust at 53 [17]
全球经济观察第14期:政府关门迫在眉睫
CAITONG SECURITIES· 2025-09-27 07:24
政府关门迫在眉睫 ——全球经济观察第 14 期 证券研究报告 宏观周报 / 2025.09.27 分析师 陈兴 SAC 证书编号:S0160523030002 chenxing@ctsec.com 联系人 马乐怡 maly@ctsec.com 相关报告 1.《美国零售仍有韧性——全球经济观察第 13 期》 2025-09-20 2.《初请失业金人数创新高——全球经济观 察第 12 期》 2025-09-13 3.《美国就业全面降温——全球经济观察第 11 期》 2025-09-06 4.《特朗普降息再施压——全球经济观察第 10 期》 2025-08-30 5.《美国房地产市场仍弱——全球经济观察 第 9 期》 2025-08-23 核心观点 请阅读最后一页的重要声明! ❖ 全球资产价格:金价继续上行。股市方面,日欧市场上涨,而美股市场下 跌。美股三大指数来看,本周标普 500、道琼斯指数和纳斯达克指数分别下 跌 0.9%、0.8 和 0.7%。债市方面,全球国债收益率普遍上行,10 年期美债 收益率上行 6bp。商品方面,原油价格上涨,WTI 原油和布伦特原油本周分 别上涨 2.7%和 2.5%,伦敦金价上 ...