Core Viewpoint - The continuous downward revision of U.S. non-farm payroll data since 2025 indicates a significant weakening of the labor market, suggesting that the actual economic conditions are much worse than initially reported [1][2][3]. Labor Market Trends - The U.S. non-farm payroll data has been revised down by a total of 461,000 jobs over the past six months, reflecting a consistent trend of labor market cooling since Q2 2025 [2]. - Historical data shows that significant downward revisions in non-farm payrolls often precede key turning points in the economy, as seen during the 2001 dot-com bubble and the 2008 financial crisis [2][3]. - The current downward trend in non-farm payrolls may indicate a structural weakening of the U.S. economy, which has been temporarily masked by initial estimates and lagging indicators [2][3]. Employment Indicators - Job openings (JOLTS) have decreased from a peak of 12.134 million in March 2022 to 7.437 million by June 2025, a nearly 40% drop, indicating reduced hiring intentions and job creation capabilities [7]. - The unemployment rate has gradually increased from 3.5% in the second half of 2023 to 4.2% by July 2025, suggesting a systemic lack of labor demand [10]. - The labor force participation rate has also shown a structural decline, dropping from 62.8% in mid-2023 to 62.2% by July 2025 [10]. Market Expectations and Policy Implications - The market's expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts have rapidly shifted, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut in September rising from 38% to 90% within a few days [13]. - The focus of the Federal Reserve's policy is shifting from combating inflation to stabilizing employment, as the labor market is not as strong as it appears [14][15]. - The combination of weakening labor demand, declining job quality, and manageable inflation suggests that the Federal Reserve may find it reasonable to open the door for interest rate cuts [15].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold prices dropped and then rebounded on Tuesday evening, reaching a high of $3380 per ounce, mainly influenced by the unexpected decline in the US ISM non - manufacturing PMI and Trump's remarks about the Fed and Indian tariffs [1][3]. - With the phased conclusion of trade negotiation results, the negative impact of TACO trading on gold has been phased out. The emotional impact of tariffs will gradually weaken and become a slow - variable later. Attention should be paid to the negative verification of the fundamentals after large - scale implementation [6]. - With the disappointing non - farm payroll data and the reversal of the US stock market, the short - term trading of the US economic resilience may end. The market will return to the logic of the weakening US fundamentals and the restart of the interest rate cut cycle, and the sentiment in the gold market will turn positive [6]. - At the global central bank annual meeting in late August, Powell's statement is expected to change. The accelerating pace of the Fed's leadership change may bring changes to the expected interest rate path next year and concerns about the Fed's independence, which is expected to increase price elasticity [6]. - The long - term bull market trend of gold remains unchanged. The continued slowdown of the US fundamentals under the tariff path and the restart of the interest rate cut cycle provide medium - term drivers, and the contraction of the US dollar credit builds the foundation for the long - term bull market [6]. - The weekly London gold spot price is expected to be in the range of [3300, 3500], and the weekly London silver spot price is expected to be in the range of [36, 40] [6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Contents Key Information - Trump said he would significantly raise tariffs on Indian goods due to India's large - scale purchase of Russian oil. India responded that it would take measures to safeguard its interests and criticized Trump's actions as "unjustified" [2]. - Trump said he would soon announce a short - term replacement for Fed Governor Kugler's resignation and the next Fed Chairman [2]. - The minutes of the Bank of Japan's June meeting showed that some policymakers believed there was room for a rate hike once trade frictions caused by US tariffs eased [2]. - On August 5, US economic data showed that the July ISM non - manufacturing PMI dropped to 50.1, lower than the expected 51.5; the final value of the S&P Global Services PMI was 55.7, slightly higher than the expected 55.2. The trade deficit in June narrowed to $60.2 billion, the smallest since September 2023 [2]. Price Logic - Gold prices were affected by the unexpected decline in the US ISM non - manufacturing PMI, Trump's remarks about the Fed (including soon announcing a new Fed Chairman, criticizing Powell for "cutting interest rates too late") and Indian tariffs (raising tariffs on Indian goods in 24 hours, and planning new tariff measures on drugs and chips in the next week with drug tariffs possibly reaching up to 250% in stages) [1][3]. - The three factors of economic fundamentals, Fed independence, and economic and trade prospects resonated, causing gold to rebound quickly from $3350 to above $3380 [6].