美国非农就业数据若出现连续下修，通常领先于实际经济增速放缓。 2025年以来，美国非农就业数据持续遭遇大幅下修，累计下调人数达46.1万人，表明美国劳动力市场实际疲态远甚于初值所展现的表面韧性。 历史经验表明，美国非农就业数据若出现连续下修，通常领先于实际经济增速放缓。当前，美国劳动力市场职位空缺持续减少、失业率温和抬升、劳动参与 率下行、初次申请失业金人数上升，多项指标与非农下修趋势形成相互印证，"强就业"的市场叙事正遭遇现实的反向验证。 非农数据下修领先经济趋势 根据美国劳工统计局（BLS）公布的数据及修正记录，过去6个月美国非农就业数据累计被下修46.1万人。这一幅度不仅数量显著，而且方向高度一致，表 明自2025年二季度以来，美国劳动力市场正在持续降温，其实际情况远弱于初值所展现出的表面韧性。 回溯历史数据可以发现，当非农数据出现显著下修并在年度层面形成系统性高估时，往往对应美国经济接近转折的关键时点。例如，2001年互联网泡沫破裂 时期，全年非农数据累计下修47万人。2008年金融危机爆发时期，全年下修幅度高达166.6万人。进入当前周期，2023至2025年连续三年非农数据下修，分 别为54.6万 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold prices dropped and then rebounded on Tuesday evening, reaching a high of $3380 per ounce, mainly influenced by the unexpected decline in the US ISM non - manufacturing PMI and Trump's remarks about the Fed and Indian tariffs [1][3]. - With the phased conclusion of trade negotiation results, the negative impact of TACO trading on gold has been phased out. The emotional impact of tariffs will gradually weaken and become a slow - variable later. Attention should be paid to the negative verification of the fundamentals after large - scale implementation [6]. - With the disappointing non - farm payroll data and the reversal of the US stock market, the short - term trading of the US economic resilience may end. The market will return to the logic of the weakening US fundamentals and the restart of the interest rate cut cycle, and the sentiment in the gold market will turn positive [6]. - At the global central bank annual meeting in late August, Powell's statement is expected to change. The accelerating pace of the Fed's leadership change may bring changes to the expected interest rate path next year and concerns about the Fed's independence, which is expected to increase price elasticity [6]. - The long - term bull market trend of gold remains unchanged. The continued slowdown of the US fundamentals under the tariff path and the restart of the interest rate cut cycle provide medium - term drivers, and the contraction of the US dollar credit builds the foundation for the long - term bull market [6]. - The weekly London gold spot price is expected to be in the range of [3300, 3500], and the weekly London silver spot price is expected to be in the range of [36, 40] [6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Contents Key Information - Trump said he would significantly raise tariffs on Indian goods due to India's large - scale purchase of Russian oil. India responded that it would take measures to safeguard its interests and criticized Trump's actions as "unjustified" [2]. - Trump said he would soon announce a short - term replacement for Fed Governor Kugler's resignation and the next Fed Chairman [2]. - The minutes of the Bank of Japan's June meeting showed that some policymakers believed there was room for a rate hike once trade frictions caused by US tariffs eased [2]. - On August 5, US economic data showed that the July ISM non - manufacturing PMI dropped to 50.1, lower than the expected 51.5; the final value of the S&P Global Services PMI was 55.7, slightly higher than the expected 55.2. The trade deficit in June narrowed to $60.2 billion, the smallest since September 2023 [2]. Price Logic - Gold prices were affected by the unexpected decline in the US ISM non - manufacturing PMI, Trump's remarks about the Fed (including soon announcing a new Fed Chairman, criticizing Powell for "cutting interest rates too late") and Indian tariffs (raising tariffs on Indian goods in 24 hours, and planning new tariff measures on drugs and chips in the next week with drug tariffs possibly reaching up to 250% in stages) [1][3]. - The three factors of economic fundamentals, Fed independence, and economic and trade prospects resonated, causing gold to rebound quickly from $3350 to above $3380 [6].