换资前言： 9月10日，今天教师节，愿所有成为老师，或被称为老师的人，因在各自的领域不断使他们成长而快 乐！师者，传道，授业，解惑也。何为老师？不是知识的搬运工，而是打破信息壁垒，构建思维逻辑， 唤醒他人探索能力。一句老师，是尊重，更是认可，引领别人成长，也反推自我进步，一个人最大的价 值不是获得多少，而是能帮助多少人，利他才是最大的利己。 9.10黄金操作策略参考： 空单策略： 策略一：黄金早盘3670-3675附近分批做空（买跌）十分之二仓位，止损8个点，目标3660-3650附近， 破位看3640一线；（策略具有时效性，更多实施布局建议在钉钉实盘学员内部公布） 近期有哪些消息面影响黄金原油走势？后市黄金多空该如何研判？ 周三(9月10日)黄金价格徘徊在历史高位附近，因市场预期美联储本月将降息，同时投资者等待美国通 胀数据，以寻找美联储货币政策路径的更多线索。截至发稿，现货黄金上涨0.5%，至3,643.78美元，此 前周二曾创下3,673.95美元的历史新高。黄金在本周初延续涨势，此前上周五公布的又一份疲软非农就 业（NFP）报告继续推高市场对美联储鸽派政策的押注，推动实际利率走低，从而支撑金价上涨。金 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates that the U.S. labor market is showing significant signs of cooling, with August job growth falling short of expectations, leading to increased bets on the Federal Reserve initiating rate cuts starting this month [1] - In August, the seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls recorded an increase of only 22,000 jobs, significantly below the market expectation of 75,000 jobs, while previous months' data were revised downwards [1] - The CME FedWatch Tool shows an 88.3% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with a 11.7% chance of a 50 basis point cut [1] Group 2 - Following the employment data release, the U.S. dollar index dropped approximately 35 points, while spot gold prices surged nearly $30, reaching a record high of $3,586 per ounce [1] - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 10.74 basis points to 3.474%, and the 10-year yield decreased by 9.03 basis points to 4.070% after the non-farm payroll data was published [3] - U.S. stock futures saw a short-term increase, with the Nasdaq 100 futures rising by 0.86% [5]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of cooling, with the upcoming August non-farm payroll report expected to reveal the true pace of economic slowdown, influencing the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate decisions [1][12]. Market Expectations: Growth Slowdown and Rising Unemployment - Economists predict an addition of 75,000 non-farm jobs in August, with the unemployment rate expected to rise slightly to 4.3% from 4.2% in July [2][5]. - Average hourly earnings are anticipated to grow by 0.3% month-over-month, with year-over-year growth slowing from 3.9% to 3.8% [2]. Employment Data and Revisions - The July non-farm payroll report was weak, with only 73,000 jobs added and significant downward revisions to previous months, indicating a more severe labor market cooling than initially thought [3][5]. - Investors will closely monitor revisions to previous months' data, as July's report had a substantial downward adjustment of 258,000 jobs for May and June [1][5]. Special Considerations for August Data - Historical trends show that initial August non-farm payroll figures are often weak but later revised upwards, with 10 out of the last 15 years seeing lower-than-expected job growth [5]. - Government policies, including hiring freezes and layoffs, are expected to negatively impact federal employment numbers, with Goldman Sachs forecasting a decrease of 20,000 jobs in August [5]. Leading Indicators and Economic Sentiment - Initial jobless claims and continuing claims have risen, indicating a potential softening in the labor market [6]. - The ADP report showed only a 54,000 increase in private sector jobs, significantly below the previous month's figure [7]. - The Challenger report indicated a drop in hiring intentions and a surge in layoffs, reaching the lowest level since 2009 [8]. - The JOLTS report revealed that for the first time since April 2021, the number of unemployed exceeded job openings, signaling a demand-constrained labor market [9]. - Consumer confidence regarding job availability has declined, with fewer consumers believing jobs are plentiful [10]. Potential Impact of Benchmark Revisions - The upcoming benchmark revision by the Bureau of Labor Statistics could adjust total employment numbers down by 500,000 to 1 million, suggesting that previous monthly job additions may have been overestimated [11]. - Such revisions could serve as a catalyst for the Federal Reserve to take decisive action, even if the August report is mediocre [11]. Threshold for Rate Cuts - For a 50 basis point rate cut to be considered, non-farm payrolls would need to fall below 40,000, and the unemployment rate would need to reach or exceed 4.4% [12]. - A significantly strong report could lead to a pause in rate cuts, particularly if combined with hot inflation data [12]. Market Pricing and Reactions - Options market data indicates a low expected volatility of around 0.70% for the S&P 500 on the report release day, reflecting a calm market sentiment [14]. - A detailed scenario analysis suggests varying impacts on the S&P 500 based on different employment outcomes, with a range of potential index movements depending on job growth figures [15]. Preferred Outcomes - Analysts from Goldman Sachs suggest that a "not too good, not too bad" report would be the most favorable outcome for risk assets, supporting the expectation of a September rate cut without alarming the market [17].

Core Viewpoint - The continuous downward revision of U.S. non-farm payroll data since 2025 indicates a significant weakening of the labor market, suggesting that the actual economic conditions are much worse than initially reported [1][2][3]. Labor Market Trends - The U.S. non-farm payroll data has been revised down by a total of 461,000 jobs over the past six months, reflecting a consistent trend of labor market cooling since Q2 2025 [2]. - Historical data shows that significant downward revisions in non-farm payrolls often precede key turning points in the economy, as seen during the 2001 dot-com bubble and the 2008 financial crisis [2][3]. - The current downward trend in non-farm payrolls may indicate a structural weakening of the U.S. economy, which has been temporarily masked by initial estimates and lagging indicators [2][3]. Employment Indicators - Job openings (JOLTS) have decreased from a peak of 12.134 million in March 2022 to 7.437 million by June 2025, a nearly 40% drop, indicating reduced hiring intentions and job creation capabilities [7]. - The unemployment rate has gradually increased from 3.5% in the second half of 2023 to 4.2% by July 2025, suggesting a systemic lack of labor demand [10]. - The labor force participation rate has also shown a structural decline, dropping from 62.8% in mid-2023 to 62.2% by July 2025 [10]. Market Expectations and Policy Implications - The market's expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts have rapidly shifted, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut in September rising from 38% to 90% within a few days [13]. - The focus of the Federal Reserve's policy is shifting from combating inflation to stabilizing employment, as the labor market is not as strong as it appears [14][15]. - The combination of weakening labor demand, declining job quality, and manageable inflation suggests that the Federal Reserve may find it reasonable to open the door for interest rate cuts [15].

Group 1: U.S. Labor Market and Economic Outlook - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for July showed a surprising drop, with only 73,000 jobs added, significantly below the expected 104,000, and the unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2% [3] - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics revised down the employment figures for May and June, with May's job additions adjusted from 144,000 to just 19,000, and June's from 147,000 to 14,000, resulting in a total reduction of 258,000 jobs for those two months [3] - The private sector added 83,000 jobs in July, while federal government employment decreased by 12,000, indicating ongoing layoffs across various sectors [3] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Expectations - The market has renewed expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September following the disappointing employment data [1][4] - Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve have increased, particularly with the upcoming departure of board member Kugler, which has raised concerns about the independence of the Fed's policy [4] - The overall sentiment in the market is leaning towards a more optimistic view on interest rate cuts if the unemployment rate continues to rise unexpectedly [1][4] Group 3: Global Trade and Tariff Developments - The global trade situation has stabilized, with the U.S. reinstating "reciprocal tariffs" on August 7 and reaching preliminary agreements with several economies, including the EU and South Korea [2] - Ongoing U.S.-China trade talks have shown progress, with a consensus to extend certain tariffs and countermeasures for an additional 90 days [2] - The reduction in tariff uncertainties has contributed to a decrease in market risk aversion [2] Group 4: Precious Metals Market - The decline in interest rates and the drop in the U.S. dollar index have positively impacted precious metal prices, particularly gold [1] - Short-term gold prices may remain in a range-bound pattern, but there is potential for a breakout due to rising interest rate cut expectations and geopolitical uncertainties [1][4] - Silver prices are expected to follow gold trends but may exhibit greater volatility due to domestic macroeconomic policies [4]