今日周四(1月8日)欧盘时段，纸白银目前交投于17.13一线下方，截至发稿，纸白银暂报16.96元/克，下 跌2.16%，最高触及17.74元/克，最低下探16.95元/克，目前来看，纸白银盘内短线偏向看跌走势。 【要闻速递】 美国经济信号呈现分化格局。服务业方面，数据显示一定韧性，但就业市场的放缓趋势正在逐步显现。 美国将于北美时段稍晚公布当周初请失业金人数，而市场真正的焦点集中在周五发布的12月非农就业报 告。 当前市场预期，12月新增就业人数约为5.5万人，低于11月的6.4万人，暗示就业动能可能继续降温。具 体数据方面，ISM公布的12月非制造业PMI升至54.4，显着高于前值52.6，也好于市场预期，显示服务 业活动回暖。 然而，与此同时，JOLTS职位空缺在11月降至714.6万，低于前值和市场预期，反映企业招聘需求趋 弱。就业相关的前瞻指标同样偏软。 ADP数据显示，12月私营部门就业人数增加4.1万人，虽然较11月修正后的下降有所改善，但仍低于市 场预期水平。这些数据共同指向美国劳动力市场正在逐步降温。 【最新纸白银行情解析】 日图来看，纸白银价格在早盘触及到高点之后持续回落，一小时布林带向下 ...

由于此前联邦政府阶段性停摆，美国劳工统计局（BLS）本周二（12月16日）罕见地同时公布了10月和 11月非农就业报告。其中，10月数据因统计工作中断而推迟一个月发布。从这份报告来看，美国就业结 构仍在恶化。 对于明年美联储降息策略，在政策制定层面看，分歧依然存在。根据随利率决议公布的利率路径预测，多 数美联储官员预计2026年仅降息一次，也有部分官员认为不需要再降息；而期货市场的定价则显示，投 资者普遍押注2026年将降息两次。 报告显示，11月非农就业人口增加6.4万人，略好于市场预期，但失业率意外升至4.6%，创2021年9月以 来新高，显示劳动力市场持续降温，是本次报告中最受关注的信号。 而10月的数据更是明显偏弱。当月非农就业人数大幅减少10.5万人，这是过去六个月中第三次出现就 业"净减少"。BLS指出，10月就业下滑的主要原因并非企业大规模裁员，而是超过15万名联邦雇员离职 ——这些员工选择接受政府提供的延期买断方案，导致公共部门就业出现一次性拖累。另外，由于统计资 料不足，10月失业率并未公布，这也进一步增加了数据解读的难度。 多位经济学家将当前美国劳动力市场形容为一种"低解雇、低招聘"的状态 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, domestic commodities maintained a volatile trend, with industrial products fluctuating and agricultural products rebounding from lows. The cooling of the US labor market and the resurgence of interest - rate cut expectations led to a decline in the US dollar index, stimulating market risk appetite. Meanwhile, the continued slowdown of the domestic economy and the weakening of both domestic and external demand restricted the rebound space of industrial products [3]. - Multiple private - sector data in the US, such as ADP and Revelio Labs, show that US employment growth has slowed down, which may support the Fed's further easing policies. The end of the US government shutdown shifted market focus to economic data performance [3]. - In October, the domestic macro - economy continued the trend of weakening from the third - quarter. To ensure stable economic operation in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year, and to start the "15th Five - Year Plan" smoothly, it is necessary to strengthen policies by the end of the year, focusing on expanding domestic demand, stimulating consumption potential, and expanding effective investment [3]. - Due to the mixed macro - factors, commodities are likely to maintain a volatile trend. Geopolitical factors, such as the unresolved Russia - Ukraine conflict, potential conflicts in Venezuela, and the uncertainty of OPEC+ production policies, will continue to disrupt the commodity, especially the crude - oil market [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overseas Situation Analysis - **Employment Data**: ADP and Revelio Labs data indicate that US employment growth has slowed down. In November, ADP employment increased by 10,400, with a significant slowdown compared to previous months. Revelio Labs data also shows a similar trend, with 9,100 new jobs in October and 50,300 in November [3][7]. - **Government Shutdown and Policy**: The US government ended a 43 - day shutdown. The US Treasury Secretary hinted at plans to exempt tariffs on coffee, bananas and other foods and a possible $2,000 tax - refund plan for families with an annual income of less than $100,000 [3]. - **Inflation and Trade Data**: From the inflation and trade data trends, the US CPI and core CPI trends, as well as fiscal revenue from tariffs and trade balance data, reflect the complex situation of the US economy [9][13]. - **OPEC+ Outlook**: OPEC predicts a slight oversupply of global oil in 2026. OPEC+ production policies and the International Energy Agency's (IEA) forecast also have an impact on the oil market. The current price of WTI crude oil is $62.57, a 4% decline from $58.49 [3][18]. Domestic Situation Analysis - **Investment and Consumption**: From January to October, real - estate development investment decreased by 1.7% year - on - year, while manufacturing investment increased by 6.1% and infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) increased by 6.2%. In October, the year - on - year growth rates of total retail sales of consumer goods, retail sales of goods, and catering revenue were 2.9%, 2.7%, and 3.0% respectively [21][22]. - **Monetary Policy**: The central bank's third - quarter monetary policy report in 2025 sent a clear signal of "seeking progress while maintaining stability". The policy aims to maintain a moderately loose monetary environment, accurately guide credit resource allocation, and balance economic growth, internal - external equilibrium, and risk prevention [3]. - **Other Economic Indicators**: In November 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of M2 was 8.5%, slightly higher than the previous value of 8.2%. In October, the PMI was 50.2%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points [25][27]. High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Industrial Data**: As of November 14, the operating rates of PTA, POY, and polyester in the polyester industry chain were 74.5%, 89.0%, and 75.0% respectively. The national blast - furnace operating rate (247 enterprises) and the blast - furnace operating rate in Tangshan also showed different trends [29][30]. - **Automobile Sales Data**: In November, the year - on - year growth rates of automobile manufacturers' wholesale and retail sales were 19% and 4% respectively. From January to September, the cumulative sales volume was 41.5 million, and in November, the sales volume was 1,967,100, a 7% increase [39]. - **Agricultural Product Price Data**: As of November 7, the average wholesale prices of 28 key - monitored vegetables, pork, and 6 key - monitored fruits, as well as the agricultural product wholesale price 200 - index, showed different price trends [40][41].

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that the unexpected decline in the ADP employment data for September has intensified market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in October [1][6][12] - The ADP report indicated a decrease of 32,000 jobs in September, significantly below the market expectation of an increase of 50,000 jobs, and a revision of previous data showed a downward adjustment of 911,000 jobs over the past year [6][8] - The current economic environment in the U.S. is characterized by a slowdown in the labor market and rising inflation, creating a challenging scenario for the Federal Reserve to balance economic growth and inflation control [7][8] Group 2 - The U.S. government is facing a shutdown for the first time in nearly seven years, which has raised concerns in the market, particularly affecting the release of economic data that the Federal Reserve relies on for decision-making [9][10][11] - The shutdown has led to the suspension of various public services and the furlough of hundreds of thousands of federal employees, which could further complicate the economic outlook [10][11] - Analysts suggest that if the government shutdown continues, it may lead to a more cautious approach from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts, potentially maintaining the guidance from September [12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, which is influencing gold prices to remain near historical highs [1][2] - As of September 10, gold prices have increased by 38% this year, benefiting from a weaker dollar, strong central bank purchases, and a loose monetary environment [2] - The market anticipates a 92% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with a 50 basis point cut possibility at around 8% [2] Group 2 - Recent U.S. employment data indicates a cooling labor market, which supports the expectation of a rate cut and has contributed to the rise in gold prices [1][2] - Technical analysis suggests that gold remains in a bullish trend as long as it does not fall below $3,600, with short-term support levels identified around $3,620 to $3,640 [4][5] - The articles provide specific trading strategies for gold, including recommendations for both short and long positions based on current market conditions [5][6]

Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates that the U.S. labor market is showing significant signs of cooling, with August job growth falling short of expectations, leading to increased bets on the Federal Reserve initiating rate cuts starting this month [1] - In August, the seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls recorded an increase of only 22,000 jobs, significantly below the market expectation of 75,000 jobs, while previous months' data were revised downwards [1] - The CME FedWatch Tool shows an 88.3% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with a 11.7% chance of a 50 basis point cut [1] Group 2 - Following the employment data release, the U.S. dollar index dropped approximately 35 points, while spot gold prices surged nearly $30, reaching a record high of $3,586 per ounce [1] - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 10.74 basis points to 3.474%, and the 10-year yield decreased by 9.03 basis points to 4.070% after the non-farm payroll data was published [3] - U.S. stock futures saw a short-term increase, with the Nasdaq 100 futures rising by 0.86% [5]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of cooling, with the upcoming August non-farm payroll report expected to reveal the true pace of economic slowdown, influencing the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate decisions [1][12]. Market Expectations: Growth Slowdown and Rising Unemployment - Economists predict an addition of 75,000 non-farm jobs in August, with the unemployment rate expected to rise slightly to 4.3% from 4.2% in July [2][5]. - Average hourly earnings are anticipated to grow by 0.3% month-over-month, with year-over-year growth slowing from 3.9% to 3.8% [2]. Employment Data and Revisions - The July non-farm payroll report was weak, with only 73,000 jobs added and significant downward revisions to previous months, indicating a more severe labor market cooling than initially thought [3][5]. - Investors will closely monitor revisions to previous months' data, as July's report had a substantial downward adjustment of 258,000 jobs for May and June [1][5]. Special Considerations for August Data - Historical trends show that initial August non-farm payroll figures are often weak but later revised upwards, with 10 out of the last 15 years seeing lower-than-expected job growth [5]. - Government policies, including hiring freezes and layoffs, are expected to negatively impact federal employment numbers, with Goldman Sachs forecasting a decrease of 20,000 jobs in August [5]. Leading Indicators and Economic Sentiment - Initial jobless claims and continuing claims have risen, indicating a potential softening in the labor market [6]. - The ADP report showed only a 54,000 increase in private sector jobs, significantly below the previous month's figure [7]. - The Challenger report indicated a drop in hiring intentions and a surge in layoffs, reaching the lowest level since 2009 [8]. - The JOLTS report revealed that for the first time since April 2021, the number of unemployed exceeded job openings, signaling a demand-constrained labor market [9]. - Consumer confidence regarding job availability has declined, with fewer consumers believing jobs are plentiful [10]. Potential Impact of Benchmark Revisions - The upcoming benchmark revision by the Bureau of Labor Statistics could adjust total employment numbers down by 500,000 to 1 million, suggesting that previous monthly job additions may have been overestimated [11]. - Such revisions could serve as a catalyst for the Federal Reserve to take decisive action, even if the August report is mediocre [11]. Threshold for Rate Cuts - For a 50 basis point rate cut to be considered, non-farm payrolls would need to fall below 40,000, and the unemployment rate would need to reach or exceed 4.4% [12]. - A significantly strong report could lead to a pause in rate cuts, particularly if combined with hot inflation data [12]. Market Pricing and Reactions - Options market data indicates a low expected volatility of around 0.70% for the S&P 500 on the report release day, reflecting a calm market sentiment [14]. - A detailed scenario analysis suggests varying impacts on the S&P 500 based on different employment outcomes, with a range of potential index movements depending on job growth figures [15]. Preferred Outcomes - Analysts from Goldman Sachs suggest that a "not too good, not too bad" report would be the most favorable outcome for risk assets, supporting the expectation of a September rate cut without alarming the market [17].

Core Viewpoint - The continuous downward revision of U.S. non-farm payroll data since 2025 indicates a significant weakening of the labor market, suggesting that the actual economic conditions are much worse than initially reported [1][2][3]. Labor Market Trends - The U.S. non-farm payroll data has been revised down by a total of 461,000 jobs over the past six months, reflecting a consistent trend of labor market cooling since Q2 2025 [2]. - Historical data shows that significant downward revisions in non-farm payrolls often precede key turning points in the economy, as seen during the 2001 dot-com bubble and the 2008 financial crisis [2][3]. - The current downward trend in non-farm payrolls may indicate a structural weakening of the U.S. economy, which has been temporarily masked by initial estimates and lagging indicators [2][3]. Employment Indicators - Job openings (JOLTS) have decreased from a peak of 12.134 million in March 2022 to 7.437 million by June 2025, a nearly 40% drop, indicating reduced hiring intentions and job creation capabilities [7]. - The unemployment rate has gradually increased from 3.5% in the second half of 2023 to 4.2% by July 2025, suggesting a systemic lack of labor demand [10]. - The labor force participation rate has also shown a structural decline, dropping from 62.8% in mid-2023 to 62.2% by July 2025 [10]. Market Expectations and Policy Implications - The market's expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts have rapidly shifted, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut in September rising from 38% to 90% within a few days [13]. - The focus of the Federal Reserve's policy is shifting from combating inflation to stabilizing employment, as the labor market is not as strong as it appears [14][15]. - The combination of weakening labor demand, declining job quality, and manageable inflation suggests that the Federal Reserve may find it reasonable to open the door for interest rate cuts [15].

Group 1: U.S. Labor Market and Economic Outlook - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for July showed a surprising drop, with only 73,000 jobs added, significantly below the expected 104,000, and the unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2% [3] - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics revised down the employment figures for May and June, with May's job additions adjusted from 144,000 to just 19,000, and June's from 147,000 to 14,000, resulting in a total reduction of 258,000 jobs for those two months [3] - The private sector added 83,000 jobs in July, while federal government employment decreased by 12,000, indicating ongoing layoffs across various sectors [3] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Expectations - The market has renewed expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September following the disappointing employment data [1][4] - Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve have increased, particularly with the upcoming departure of board member Kugler, which has raised concerns about the independence of the Fed's policy [4] - The overall sentiment in the market is leaning towards a more optimistic view on interest rate cuts if the unemployment rate continues to rise unexpectedly [1][4] Group 3: Global Trade and Tariff Developments - The global trade situation has stabilized, with the U.S. reinstating "reciprocal tariffs" on August 7 and reaching preliminary agreements with several economies, including the EU and South Korea [2] - Ongoing U.S.-China trade talks have shown progress, with a consensus to extend certain tariffs and countermeasures for an additional 90 days [2] - The reduction in tariff uncertainties has contributed to a decrease in market risk aversion [2] Group 4: Precious Metals Market - The decline in interest rates and the drop in the U.S. dollar index have positively impacted precious metal prices, particularly gold [1] - Short-term gold prices may remain in a range-bound pattern, but there is potential for a breakout due to rising interest rate cut expectations and geopolitical uncertainties [1][4] - Silver prices are expected to follow gold trends but may exhibit greater volatility due to domestic macroeconomic policies [4]