Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the U.S. economy is facing an increasing likelihood of re-acceleration, driven by resilient labor markets, expectations of fiscal stimulus, and a loose financial environment [1][2][6] - Key indicators show strong performance in the U.S. economy, with Goldman Sachs' U.S. Macro Economic Surprise Index recently surging and initial jobless claims providing positive signals [2] - The report identifies several factors contributing to this economic re-acceleration, including loose financial conditions, strong performance of risk assets, expectations of future rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and a weaker dollar [3] Group 2 - Positive fiscal policy impulses are expected in the first half of next year, alongside continued capital expenditure growth in the artificial intelligence sector [4] - The U.S. consumer base remains solid, and the impact of deregulation should not be overlooked [5] - The combination of these favorable factors increases the likelihood of unexpected economic growth next year [6] Group 3 - The monetary policy path will significantly depend on the new Federal Reserve chair, with contrasting scenarios for 2025 and 2026 [7] - Current statements from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicate that recent job growth is below the "breakeven" level, suggesting a path towards normalizing policy rates closer to neutral levels (3-3.5% range) [7][8] - Goldman Sachs' baseline scenario anticipates rate cuts of 25 basis points in October and December of this year [7] Group 4 - Two core questions arise regarding the Federal Reserve's actions: whether rates will be lowered below neutral levels even if the economy is healthy, and whether the Fed can raise rates during a potential Trump administration to counter economic overheating [8] - Two distinct trading strategies are proposed based on market expectations of the Federal Reserve's policy response: going long on U.S. long-term breakeven inflation rates, gold, and holding risk assets if low policy rates are expected, or anticipating a steeper U.S. Treasury yield curve if the Fed tightens policy in response to economic re-acceleration [9] - The current market measures of mid-2026 rate expectations indicate that the market has not fully priced in the risk of rate hikes, with the SFRM6/M8 spread hovering around -5 basis points [9]

Group 1 - The possibility of a re-acceleration in the U.S. economy is increasing, driven by a resilient labor market, expectations of fiscal stimulus, and a loose financial environment [1][2] - The U.S. macroeconomic surprise index has significantly risen, and initial jobless claims have shown encouraging results, with a projected Q3 GDP annualized growth rate of 2.6% [2][6] - Key factors contributing to this economic outlook include loose financial conditions, positive fiscal policies, and a solid consumer base [3][4][5] Group 2 - The monetary policy path of the Federal Reserve will be influenced by the new chairperson, with differing scenarios for 2025 and 2026 [7][8] - Current employment growth is below the "breakeven" level, suggesting a potential normalization of policy rates closer to neutral levels (3-3.5%) [7] - Two distinct trading strategies are proposed based on market expectations of the Fed's response to economic re-acceleration, including long positions in U.S. long-term breakeven inflation rates and gold if rates remain low, or a steeper yield curve if the Fed tightens policy [8]

高盛最新报告指出，美国经济重新加速的可能性正在上升，主要原因包括劳动力市场韧性、财政刺激预 期以及宽松金融环境等多重利好因素。最新公布的首次申请失业救济人数数据令人振奋，而高盛全球投 资研究部门预测，第三季度美国GDP 增长率将达到健康的2.6%，为明年上半年的经济增长提供有力支 撑。 经济重新加速的前景将对美联储货币政策产生重要影响，尤其是在新任主席人选即将出炉的情况 下。高盛指出，2025年与2026年美联储的货币政策路径可能大不相同。对于今年剩余时间，高盛预测政 策利率将逐步正常化至接近中性水准(3-3.5%)，并预计10月与12月各降息25个基点，以避免过度限制劳 动力市场。对于明年，货币政策将高度依赖新主席的政策倾向。 ...

高盛的分析显示，美国经济在多项关键指标上展现出强劲表现。 据高盛称，其美国宏观经济意外指数（US MAP surprise index）近期大幅飙升，本周的初请失业金人数 也令人鼓舞。该行全球投资研究部（GIR）预计，美国第三季度GDP环比年化增长率将达到2.6%的健康 水平。 高盛最新警告，一系列因素正显著增加美国经济"重新加速"的风险，将为2026年的货币政策路径带来截 然不同的前景和挑战。 9月28日，高盛分析师Cosimo Codacci-Pisanelli和Rikin Shah在最新报告中称，美国经济面临重新加速的 风险正在上升，这一预期建立在劳动力市场韧性、财政刺激预期以及宽松金融环境等多重利好因素基础 之上。 该行分析师认为，当前美国经济在多项指标上表现强劲，本周公布的首次申请失业救济人数数据令人鼓 舞，而高盛全球投资研究部门预计第三季度美国GDP增长率将达到健康的2.6%（环比年化率）。这为 明年上半年的增长提供了有力支撑。 报告称，这一经济重新加速的前景将对美联储货币政策路径产生重要影响，特别是在美联储选出新主席 人选的背景下。高盛指出，关键问题在于美联储是否会在经济健康运行时仍将利率降至中 ...