美东时间12月8日至9日，据CME"美联储观察"数据显示，市场对美联储12月降息的预期进一步增强，概率从86.2%上升至89.4%，维持利率不变的概率则从 13.8%降至10.6%。 这已是美联储年内最后一场货币政策会议前夕，市场预期最强烈的一次利率调整信号。金融市场正屏息以待，等待12月会议结果的揭晓。 01 概率飙升 短短24小时内，市场对美联储降息预期的变化令人瞩目。根据最新CME FedWatch工具数据，美联储在12月会议上降息25个基点的概率已攀升至89.4%，而 维持利率不变的概率则降至10.6%。 市场对美联储降息的预期在短短24小时内变得更加确定，概率从86.2%跃升至89.4%。 这一变化较前一日明显增强，12月8日的数据显示，降息25个基点的概率为86.2%，维持不变的概率为13.8%。 市场似乎对美联储的政策转向越来越有信心。这是自美联储启动本轮加息周期以来，市场对降息预期最为强烈的一次。 02 近期轨迹 市场对美联储政策路径的预期不仅仅局限于12月会议。根据CME数据，美联储到明年1月累计降息25个基点的概率为68.5%，维持利率不变的概率为7.8%， 累计降息50个基点的概率为23 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's expectation of interest rate cuts is rising, while the Swiss National Bank (SNB) maintains a hawkish stance, leading to a significant depreciation of the USD/CHF exchange rate, reaching a 14-year low [1] - Weak economic data from the US, including declines in personal consumption and income, raises concerns for the Federal Reserve, complicating its inflation outlook [3] - The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 92.4% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year, up from 70% a week prior [3] Group 2 - The Swiss National Bank's recent comments suggest a potential for maintaining negative interest rates, despite having lowered the policy rate to 0% for the sixth consecutive time [4] - The KOF leading indicator for Switzerland dropped to 96.1 in June, significantly below both May's 98.6 and market expectations of 99.3, indicating ongoing economic weakness [4] - The SNB's cautious outlook on global trade and a projected GDP growth of only 1%-1.5% for Switzerland this year provide support for the Swiss franc amidst rising geopolitical tensions and increased market uncertainty [4]