根据观察者网的报道，美国当前面临着日益严峻的内外困境，其经济正陷入前所未有的深层次危机。美联储主席最近在国会听证会上明确表示，为了应对日 益严重的通胀威胁，美联储不得不继续大幅加息，甚至可能加息75个基点，而这种加息的步伐还将持续下去。这一表态无疑增加了美国经济衰退的风险。而 这种言论，与他一周前美国不大可能陷入经济衰退的乐观预测形成鲜明对比。仅仅一周之前，美联储通过创下近二十八年来最大规模的加息，短暂地为美股 注入了兴奋剂，然而显然，这种药效极为短暂，美股指数在鲍威尔发言后出现了明显的下跌。 如今，四十年最高通胀和过度加息导致经济衰退这两种严峻 的选择就像两杯毒酒摆在美国面前，眼下的美国不得不在这两者之间做出选择。显然，美国选择了尚未到来的过度加息的那一杯。美国的高通胀问题根源深 远，涉及多个层面，首先是长期以来，美国经济的虚拟化发展，金融资本过度脱离实体产业进行资本增值，导致了经济结构的严重失衡，大量的空洞和泡沫 开始积累。实体经济的衰退与资本市场的繁荣形成了鲜明对比，尤其是在新冠疫情的打击下，实体经济进一步受损，最终为当前的高通胀埋下了隐患。 与此同时，必须认识到，不论是美国在全球的驻军，还是它在欧洲的 ...

由于通胀问题突出，特朗普多次公开施压鲍威尔大幅降息，并称下任美联储主席应该在制定利率政策时 咨询他的意见，这些表态引发对美联储独立性的担忧。 美国马里斯特民调中心（Marist Poll）联合多家媒体（PBS NewsHour/NPR/Marist poll）17日公布的一份 民调结果显示，8日至11日期间1440名接受问卷调查的美国成年人中，认可特朗普处理经济问题的比例 为36%，为特朗普第一任期和第二任期以来最低的水平，而表示不认可的比例高达57%。 （文章来源：新华财经） 特朗普把美国高通胀等问题归结于前任政府，并称自己正在加以解决。 特朗普在12月2日曾表示，他很可能在2026年初公布下任美联储主席提名人选，以接替将于2026年5月结 束任期的现任主席鲍威尔。 据多家媒体报道，特朗普目前仍在对候选人进行考察，他在17日面试了美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒 （Christopher Waller）。 新华财经纽约12月17日电（记者刘亚南）美国总统特朗普17日晚在对全国发表电视讲话时表示，他将很 快宣布下一任美联储主席的提名人选，自己所提名的候选人应该大幅降低利率。 特朗普还表示，住房抵押贷款还款金额将随之 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill on the U.S. economy, highlighting the resilience of the labor market despite uncertainties from trade and immigration policies, and the reduced likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the near term [1][2][12]. Labor Market Resilience - In June, the U.S. added 147,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding expectations of 106,000, with the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropping from 4.2% to 4.1% [6]. - Government employment saw a significant increase of 73,000 jobs, particularly in state and local sectors related to education, while private sector job growth was only 74,000, the lowest since October of the previous year [6][7]. - The labor force participation rate showed a decline, with a drop of 130,000 in the overall labor population, indicating a reduction in labor supply [7]. "Big and Beautiful" Bill Implications - The "Big and Beautiful" bill, passed by the House, extends tax cuts for corporations and individuals, with a focus on reducing corporate taxes, which is expected to benefit high-income groups while negatively impacting low-income households [9][10]. - The bill is projected to increase the annual GDP growth rate by 0.2 percentage points from 2025 to 2027, with a maximum effect of 0.6% in 2026-2027 [10]. - However, it is anticipated to lead to a significant increase in federal debt, with estimates suggesting a $4.5 trillion cost over the next decade due to extended tax cuts [11]. Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Outlook - The likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July has diminished, with a focus shifting towards inflation concerns rather than immediate economic deterioration [12][13]. - The Federal Reserve's internal divisions regarding interest rate cuts have become more pronounced, with some officials advocating for no cuts this year [14]. - The overall economic resilience may support a wait-and-see approach from the Federal Reserve, with a potential for rate cuts in September if conditions warrant [14].

Group 1 - The Monetary Authority of Singapore's head indicated that the market reflects the outlook of economic growth slowdown and high inflation in the United States [1]