新华社渥太华2月27日电（记者林威）加拿大统计局27日发布数据显示，受美国加征关税扰乱正常贸易 秩序影响，加拿大2025年出口下降明显，经济增速放缓至1.7%，为2020年以来的最低水平。 ...

重债务时，个人信用体系可能面临崩溃风险。 离婚率居高不下的背后，反映了现代婚姻关系面临的复杂挑战。婚前的美好承诺往往需要经受婚后日常 生活、经济压力、育儿观念差异以及社会各种诱惑的考验。婚姻关系正逐渐从传统的"终身承诺"模式， 转向更注重个人感受和共同成长的伙伴关系。 社交媒体的广泛使用，无形中放大了社会不同群体之间的生活差距。网络空间中展示的奢华生活、环球 旅行和优秀子女，编织成一张巨大的比较之网。许多人在虚拟世界中不断进行横向对比，产生超出自身 能力的欲望，长期处于自我质疑和精神消耗的状态。 进入2025年，房地产市场持续呈现下行趋势。越来越多的潜在购房者选择持币观望，担心过早入场会面 临资产缩水。新建商品房库存量不断累积，二手房市场挂牌数量激增，但成交周期明显延长。对于已经 背负房贷的家庭来说，每月还款压力并未减轻，而房产作为投资品的属性正在逐渐淡化。 当代年轻人的婚育观念发生了显著变化，导致生育率持续走低。养育孩子已不再是简单的"多添一双筷 子"，而是一项堪比购置房产的长期巨额投入。从婴幼儿时期的优质奶粉、教育阶段的学区房选择，到 课外辅导的高昂费用，再加上父母需要投入的大量时间和精力，这些综合成本让 ...

也有一些研究机构视英国1月的公共财政状况为"谨慎乐观"，根本问题是财政盈余状况能否持续。"1月 的财政盈余部分原因是政府的一次性收入增长，如资本利得税等，这和英国国民因担心税收增加而抓紧 抛售资产相关，但这是不可持续的。"万神殿宏观经济咨询公司经济学家在评价英国最新的公共财政报 告时称。 更大的困难来自于经济增长的低迷。英国国家统计局数据显示，英国雇员的薪资增长已经在明显放缓。 2025年10-12月，英国雇员薪资同比增长4.2%，低于9-11月4.5%的增长水平。"展望秋季预算案，英国的 经济增长放缓可能再次扰乱财政前景，引发更多关于潜在增税的猜测。此次的关键驱动因素是预计移民 人数下降，这将减少政府未来的财政收入，并有可能在2029-30财年导致公共财政出现赤字。"毕马威英 国公司高级经济学家Dennis Tatarkov说。目前，主流市场研究机构对英国2026年的经济增长预期在1%左 右，低于2025年1.3%的增长水平。 英国影子财政大臣Mel Stride指出，英国经济增速低于潜在增长水平，这是高税收的副作用。英国工党 政府不断提高税收，对财政状况进行整固，但付出的代价是经济增长持续疲弱。 新华财经 ...

一觉醒来，发现白银价格直接飞了，黄金也跟着上涨，全球市场像炸锅一样。 这到底发生了什么？ 普通人关心的钱包，突然就被一场美国式"骚操作"搅得天翻地覆。 其实那天中国市场还在春节假期，真正推高价格的，是美国自己。 白银和黄金的涨幅远超日常波动，资本像洪水一样涌过去。 你以为这是技术性调整？ 其实是恐慌情绪的集中爆发。 有人说是特朗普，又有人怪美联储，还有人干脆把锅甩给伊朗。 其实，这些表面上的波动背后，藏着美国政治经济一系列自作聪明的操作——但说实话，真正吃亏的还是他 们自己。 先说市场吧。 2月20日那天，白银疯狂暴涨超过8%，黄金也不甘示弱，涨了2%。 投资者像跑马一样冲向贵金属避险。 有人问，是不是中国大妈又出手了？ 这场风暴的导火索，就是特朗普。 美国总统特朗普突然宣布，要对全世界所有卖到美国的商品再加征10%关税。 这不是普通的关税，是在原本已经有的关税基础上加码。 你觉得这个操作有脑子吗？ 其实就是典型的"自作聪明"：一边摊手让市场承受压力，一边想着用关税威胁世界。 为什么特朗普要这么干？ 背后是美国最高法院给他添堵。 法院判决他之前搞的大规模关税不合法，理由是缺乏明确法律授权。 一场裁决让美国企业 ...

经济观察网据新浪财经消息，墨西哥经济在2025年连续第四年放缓，这是该国至少自20世纪80年代以来 持续时间最长的一次。目前，该国在吸引更多投资方面步履维艰，同时还必须应对巨额预算赤字和持续 不断的贸易不确定性。 ...

与此同时，利率期货市场对降息的押注明显升温。根据芝商所FedWatch工具的数据，交易员目前预计 美联储在下个月降息25个基点的概率为19.6%，高于前一交易日的17.2%。此外，市场对今年累计降息 三到四次的预期也有所上升，明显高于美联储官员此前释放的政策信号。 EY-Parthenon首席经济学家Gregory Daco在报告中指出："12月零售销售报告相当糟糕。虽然部分高收入 家庭在假期期间仍保持较强消费能力，大多数消费者的支出更加谨慎，并越来越依赖信用卡和储蓄来维 持开支。" 周二公布的美国12月零售销售数据意外疲软，削弱了市场对美国经济增长的信心，推动美国国债价格持 续上涨、收益率进一步回落。数据显示，美国消费者在去年年底的支出动能明显减弱，引发市场对今年 经济增长、通胀以及利率路径的重新评估。 数据显示，12月零售销售环比持平，远低于市场此前预期的增长0.4%，也明显弱于11月0.6%的增幅。 这一结果表明，美国消费者支出在年末明显"熄火"，加剧了市场对经济增长放缓的担忧。分析人士认 为，这可能意味着今年利率与通胀的运行路径将低于此前预期。 Infrastructure Capital Advis ...

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Report's Core View - In early 2026, the global financial market volatility intensified. The right - wing political trend after the Japanese election and the political crisis in the UK resonated, further increasing market uncertainty. The chaos in the two countries is the result of the transmission of internal economic contradictions. The global market risk has further increased due to the external factors of global geopolitical conflicts and industrial transformation [2] - The RMB exchange rate was supported. The US dollar against the RMB fell below the 6.93 mark during the session. In the short term, it may be supported by seasonal settlement demand and maintain low - level volatile operation. After the holiday, the endogenous appreciation power of the RMB against the US dollar may decline, and its linkage with the US dollar index may further strengthen [4] - The upward sustainability of the stock index remains to be observed. It is recommended to hold positions and wait and see. The bond market is not advisable to chase the high. The container shipping European line futures are expected to maintain high - level fluctuations in the short term. The new energy, non - ferrous metals, and other industries have different trends and corresponding investment suggestions based on their respective fundamentals [13][18][27] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: The political changes in Japan and the UK have pushed up global market risks. Key events include the optimization of refinancing measures by stock exchanges, political turmoil in the UK, expected slowdown in US employment growth, the early departure of the French central bank governor, and Japan's plan to discuss food tax cuts [1] - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The RMB appreciated against the US dollar. The US dollar index declined due to factors such as the recovery of the precious metal and technology stock markets, the strengthening of the yen, and China's suggestion to financial institutions to reduce US debt exposure. The RMB exchange rate was supported, and it is necessary to focus on US employment data and the Fed chairman's speech [3][4] - **Stock Index**: The stock index rose collectively, but the upward sustainability remains to be observed. It is recommended to hold positions and wait and see due to factors such as approaching the Spring Festival and the upcoming release of important data [5][6] - **Treasury Bond**: The bond market continued the upward trend last week. It is not advisable to chase the high, and it is recommended to close out previous long positions. Consider moving positions for the March contract this week [6][7] - **Container Shipping European Line**: The futures market showed a volatile pattern. The core contradiction is the game between the shipping companies' price - holding determination and the fundamental cargo volume support, with geopolitical factors as uncertainties. The short - term is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations [9][10][11] Commodities New Energy - **Lithium Carbonate**: The futures price showed a narrow - range shock with reduced volatility. The downstream pre - holiday stocking was basically completed, and the supply - demand pattern remained stable. It is recommended to arrange a strategy to sell volatility [13][14] - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: The industrial silicon market is under pressure, and the polysilicon market is relatively cold. Both are expected to maintain narrow - range fluctuations, and the industry is mainly focused on destocking [15][16] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price showed an oscillatory trend. Near the Spring Festival, the capital speculation degree decreased, and the volatility also declined. It is recommended to pay attention to the decline in volatility when choosing option strategies [18][21] - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to oscillate and adjust, and it is recommended to build long positions or sell options at low levels in the support range. Alumina has a weak fundamental outlook and is recommended to sell deep out - of - the - money options or short after the sentiment subsides. Cast aluminum alloy has strong follow - up ability to aluminum, and it is recommended to pay attention to the price difference between the two [21][22] - **Zinc**: The zinc price showed a narrow - range shock. The market has a strong wait - and - see sentiment, and it may follow the sector to oscillate in the short term. It is recommended to arrange a small - scale internal - external reverse hedging strategy [22][23] - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: The nickel - stainless steel market oscillated. The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the long - term supply reduction logic remains unchanged. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of Indonesian policies on the supply - demand pattern [23][24] - **Tin**: The tin price stopped falling and rebounded. It is necessary to pay attention to the US employment and CPI data this week. It is expected to follow the sector to conduct a wide - range shock adjustment [25] - **Lead**: The lead price fluctuated narrowly following the sector. The supply is expected to be relatively loose after the holiday, and the demand is flat. It is expected to show a weak shock [25][26] Oils and Fats and Feeds - **Oilseeds**: The external soybean market rebounded weakly, and the internal market was under pressure. The supply gap in the first quarter is expected to be filled in the second quarter. The soybean meal is expected to follow the cost of US soybeans to rebound in the short term, and the rapeseed meal is difficult to have an independent upward trend [27][28] - **Oils**: The external oil market oscillated, and the internal market was waiting for the report. The palm oil is waiting for the MPOB report, the soybean oil supply is sufficient in the future, and the rapeseed oil supply expectation is optimistic. It is recommended to sell put options [29] Energy and Oil and Gas - **Fuel Oil**: The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is gradually recovering, and the demand is mainly in the bunkering market. The fundamental situation is still poor, but the Iranian issue provides support at the bottom. It is necessary to pay attention to the geopolitical repetition [31] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The supply is relatively abundant, the demand is stable, and the inventory has decreased. The internal and external markets have limited upward drive, and it mainly follows the cost fluctuations [32][33] - **Asphalt**: The trading enthusiasm is gradually decreasing. The demand has dropped to zero before the holiday. It mainly follows the cost of crude oil to fluctuate, and the price may decline after the holiday [34][35] Precious Metals - **Gold & Silver**: The prices continued to rise. It is necessary to pay attention to important data and events in the future. Although the short - term operation is difficult, the medium - and long - term upward trend remains. It is recommended to buy on dips in steps and pay attention to position control [37][38] Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The pulp futures price decline was supported at a relatively low level. The fundamental situation is still relatively bearish, and it is recommended to partially close out short positions and conduct short - term range trading. The offset paper futures price oscillated, and the market is affected by multiple factors. It is recommended to return to range trading [40][41] - **LPG**: The LPG market is affected by geopolitical risks. The supply is relatively low, and the demand is at a low level. It is necessary to pay attention to the change of warehouse receipts and the impact of funds before the holiday [42][43] - **PTA - PX**: The PX - PTA market's valuation has been adjusted back to the fundamentals. The PX supply is expected to be tight in the first half of the year, and the PTA potential supply is large. It is recommended to buy on dips for PX and shrink the processing margin of PTA on rallies [45][48] - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: The demand for ethylene glycol is seasonally weak, and the supply - demand balance has improved. It is expected to fluctuate widely with the macro - atmosphere. It is necessary to pay attention to the geopolitical impact [49][50] - **Methanol**: The methanol market follows geopolitical and non - ferrous metals. The unilateral participation is difficult, and it is recommended to be out of the market during the holiday [51][52] - **Plastic PP**: The plastic and PP market continued to oscillate weakly. The supply and demand fundamentals have changed little, and it is necessary to pay attention to the inventory accumulation and marginal profit after the holiday [53][54] - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: The supply of pure benzene is increasing, and the demand is stable. The supply of styrene will increase in February. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [55][56] - **Rubber**: The natural rubber market oscillated strongly under the support of macro - expectations and costs. The synthetic rubber market is expected to maintain range fluctuations. It is recommended to be light - position before the holiday and consider selling deep out - of - the money options [57][58][90] - **Urea**: The urea market is in a stage of over - supply. The price of the 05 contract is expected to rise, but the short - term may回调. It is recommended to be out of the market during the holiday [61][62] - **Glass Soda Ash**: The soda ash market oscillates weakly, and the industrial contradiction is accumulating. The glass market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the cold - repair of production lines before the holiday helps to relieve the inventory pressure [63][64] - **Propylene**: The propylene market is supported by fundamentals, and the cost fluctuates greatly. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of cost, supply - demand, and market sentiment, as well as the risk of funds before the holiday [65][66] Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The rebar and hot - rolled coil market oscillated weakly. The inventory is accumulating, and the supply is slightly stronger than the demand. The steel price may test the lower limit of the shock range. It is necessary to pay attention to the price range of the main contracts [67][68] - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The overseas shipment is seasonally decreasing, and the port inventory pressure is large. It is recommended to be cautious and wait and see before the holiday [69][70] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal and coke market is in a state of weak supply and demand with narrowed fluctuations. The coking coal supply is seasonally shrinking, and the coke supply and demand are recovering simultaneously. It is necessary to pay attention to the resumption rhythm after the holiday [71][73] - **Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese**: The ferrosilicon and ferromanganese market oscillated weakly. The cost provides support, and the downstream inventory accumulation exerts pressure. It is expected to maintain range fluctuations [74][75] Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Live Pigs**: The pig price continued to decline. The supply is relatively abundant, and the demand increment is difficult to match. It is recommended to buy on the rebound for the 05 contract [77] - **Cotton**: The cotton market is affected by factors such as the expected reduction of the new - season cotton planting area and the increase of the internal - external price difference. The short - term is expected to oscillate, and it is necessary to pay attention to the downstream import and new orders [78][79][80] - **Sugar**: The international raw sugar price is weakly operating, which is expected to drag down the domestic sugar price. The upward space of the domestic sugar price is limited [81][82] - **Eggs**: The egg spot price continued to decline. The pre - holiday stocking is basically over, the supply is relatively sufficient, and the futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [83][84][85] - **Apples**: The apple market is at the end of the Spring Festival stocking. The short - term demand weakens, but the delivery contradiction provides support, and the downward space is limited [91][92] - **Red Dates**: The red date market has reduced arrivals before the holiday. The short - term price is expected to maintain low - level fluctuations, and the medium - and long - term price is under pressure [93] - **Logs**: The log market has insufficient liquidity. The inventory is at a low level, the overseas shipment has changed, and the market is recommended to wait and see [94][95][96]

Core Viewpoint - The World Economic Forum's report indicates that economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to slow down due to geopolitical uncertainties and ongoing trade and investment tensions [1] Economic Growth Expectations - The proportion of respondents expecting moderate economic growth in 2026 has decreased from 57% to 47% [1] - Conversely, the proportion of respondents anticipating weak economic growth has increased from 29% to 40% [1] Contributing Factors - The report highlights that a significant reason for the sluggish economic growth is the increasing debt burden, which poses a threat to the financial ecosystem in the region [1] - Other factors such as artificial intelligence (AI), inflation, and consumer prices are not expected to significantly alter the overall economic landscape [1]

Group 1 - The Economic Information Center (EIC) of Siam Commercial Bank predicts that the formation of the new government may take up to five months, potentially negatively impacting the economy with a projected growth rate of less than 1% in the first half of the year [1] - EIC expects the new coalition government to face constraints in advancing its policy agenda due to no single party obtaining a decisive majority in parliament, similar to the results of the 2023 elections [1] - The passage of the fiscal budget for FY2027 is anticipated to be delayed by 1 to 2 months, leading to corresponding delays in budget allocations and public spending for the year [1] Group 2 - EIC notes that while political parties' campaign promises mainly focus on cash subsidies, there are proposals for governance reforms and broader structural reforms in various areas, including household debt, competitiveness, infrastructure investment, environmental risks, demographic issues, labor quality, inequality, social welfare, and public sector governance [1] - The support for the economy from the outgoing government is expected to gradually weaken during the transition period [2][3] - EIC forecasts a decline in export value this year due to the implementation of further U.S. import tariffs and increased global competition, negatively impacting external demand [3] Group 3 - The Thai economy continues to benefit from a gradual recovery in foreign tourist numbers, with significant contributions from markets such as Europe, India, and the United States, alongside signs of recovery in Chinese tourist numbers due to new flight routes [3] - EIC anticipates that the Bank of Thailand will lower the policy interest rate by 25 basis points to 1% in the first half of the year, maintaining this level throughout 2026, in response to weak economic growth, heightened political uncertainty, and a general contraction in private sector credit [4]

前段时间，一个在房地产行业工作多年的朋友找我聊天。他在这个行业做了差不多10年的销售，见过房市的起起伏伏。那天他坐在我面前，脸色看起来有点 沉重。他说，今年他的日子过得有点难，卖房的人越来越多，但买房的人越来越少。每个月的销售业绩远不如往年，奖金自然也就少了。他说，看起来房市 确实变了，而且这个变化可能不是短期的波动，而是一个更长期的趋势。他甚至说，从行业的角度来看，2026年以后，所有的人都要学会过紧日子。这个说 法让我有点吃惊，也让我开始思考现在的房市到底发生了什么。 房市这些年的变化确实很大。回顾一下过去的十年，房价从一路上升变成了现在的停滞甚至下降。很多人在过去的几年里为了买房而拼尽全力，贷款买房、 用尽积蓄付首付、向亲戚朋友借钱。那时候，人们普遍认为房子是最保值的资产，房价只会往上涨，不会往下跌。但现在，这个观念正在被打破。 这个朋友给我分析了为什么房子现在卖不动了。他说，最主要的原因是供应过剩。这些年来，全国各地都在大量建造房子，特别是在三四线城市和一些二线 城市。这导致了整个市场上房子的数量大幅增加。供应增加了，需求却在减少。原因有很多，其中一个很重要的原因是人口结构在变化。年轻人的数量在减 少 ...