近期非农就业数据的大幅下修加剧了美联储对经济增长的担忧，而通胀的尾部风险正在下降。我们认为美国 货币政策正在从对通胀的关注转向对联储双重目标（就业和通胀）的平衡。因此我们预计美联储将从9月份开 始降息25个基点，随后在今年12月和明年3月再降息两次，累计降息75个基点。美联储有望落实降息，现在正 是布局优质债券以锁定具有吸引力的收益率的潜在机会，以应对利率的进一步下跌。 由于实际收益率仍处于高位，美联储有很大的降息空间。即使降息三次，政策利率仍将保持限制性。同时， 经济增长不确定性和美联储领导层变动也可能带来更多的降息空间。我们维持对美国国债、美元投资级债券 和高收益债券的中性观点，因其收益率仍颇具吸引力。同时，我们认为优质债券是重要的投资组合风险分散 工具，可以对冲经济增长放缓带来的宏观风险。 如何应对？ 策略一：在利率下降之前锁定当前具有吸引力的收益率。 策略二：延长久期偏好，因长短利差正处于三年来最高水平。 策略三：利用优质债券对冲增长放缓的风险 数据来源：彭博，汇丰私人银行及财富管理。截至2025年8月15日，过去数据不代表未来表现。 我行相关主题所有在售代客境外理财计划-香港互认基金、海外基金产品列 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, which is expected to provide critical insights into the future path of U.S. monetary policy amid political pressures and mixed economic signals [3][6][15]. Group 1: Market Expectations - Investors are anticipating a rate cut from the Federal Reserve in the coming weeks, which has driven stock markets, particularly interest-sensitive sectors, to historical highs [5][8]. - The federal funds futures market indicates a probability of over 92% for a 25 basis point rate cut at the September meeting, with expectations for at least one more cut this year [8]. - Housing sector stocks, such as PulteGroup, Lennar, and D.R. Horton, have seen price increases ranging from 4.2% to 8.8%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 1% rise [8]. Group 2: Political Pressures - Powell faces intense political pressure from the Trump administration, which has criticized him for not cutting rates sooner and is reportedly considering potential replacements [11][12]. - The political interference complicates the Federal Reserve's decision-making process, as Powell is cautious about the inflationary effects of the administration's tariff policies [12]. Group 3: Economic Data - Mixed economic data adds to the complexity of the situation, with inflation pressures remaining stubborn. The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.3% in July, the largest increase since January, with a year-over-year rate of 3.1% [14]. - The labor market is showing signs of cooling, with only 73,000 jobs added in July and significant downward revisions to previous months' data [14]. Group 4: Independence and Legacy - Powell is expected to focus on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy framework review during his speech, which is seen as a key strategy to defend the central bank's long-term independence [15][16]. - The potential semantic shift in describing employment conditions may provide the Fed with more flexibility in adjusting rates based on varying economic conditions [16][17].

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole conference is anticipated to provide critical insights into the future path of U.S. monetary policy, amidst significant political pressure and economic challenges [1][3]. Group 1: Market Expectations - Investors are widely expecting a rate cut from the Federal Reserve in the coming weeks, which has driven stock markets, particularly interest-sensitive sectors, to historical highs [1]. - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the September meeting is over 92%, with expectations for at least one more cut within the year [2]. Group 2: Economic Challenges - Powell faces a complex economic situation, balancing rising inflation due to tariff policies against signs of a cooling labor market and risks of economic slowdown [1][3]. - Recent economic data shows persistent inflation pressures, with the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising 0.3% month-over-month in July, the largest increase since January, and the Producer Price Index (PPI) surging 0.9%, the highest monthly increase in over three years [5]. Group 3: Political Pressure - The Trump administration has intensified its criticism of Powell for not cutting rates quickly enough, creating a challenging environment for the Fed's decision-making [2][3]. - Historical precedents of political interference in monetary policy, such as during the Nixon administration, highlight the potential risks of maintaining low rates in the face of rising inflation [3]. Group 4: Fed's Independence - Powell's upcoming speech is expected to focus on the Fed's monetary policy framework review, which is crucial for maintaining the central bank's long-term independence [6][7]. - Adjustments to the policy framework may establish guiding principles that extend beyond Powell's tenure, addressing how to respond to supply shocks and balancing full employment with price stability [6].

Core Viewpoint - UBS strategist Bhanu Baweja has raised the S&P 500 index target for the end of 2025 to 6100 points and set the target for the end of 2026 at 6800 points, indicating a positive long-term outlook despite short-term economic challenges [1] Economic Performance - The U.S. economy and corporate performance are currently strong, contributing to the optimistic projections for the S&P 500 index [1] - Tariff risks have eased, further supporting the positive outlook for the market [1] Future Projections - UBS anticipates that the S&P 500 index will be below its current level by the end of 2025 due to expected economic growth slowdown, followed by a recovery by the end of 2026 [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the nomination of a temporary Fed governor by the US President has boosted market expectations of interest - rate cuts, weakening the US dollar index. However, the 10 - year US Treasury auction was unexpectedly weak, leading to higher Treasury yields. The implementation of the US "reciprocal tariff" has triggered risk - aversion sentiment, cooling global risk appetite. Domestically, China's manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slowdown in economic growth. Trade deficit has decreased, and net exports' contribution to the economy has weakened. Policy support for child - rearing may boost consumption, and the extension of the China - US tariff truce by 90 days has reduced short - term tariff uncertainties. The expectation of a Fed rate cut has opened up space for domestic monetary policy and led to RMB appreciation, increasing domestic risk appetite [3][4]. - Different asset classes have different outlooks: stocks are expected to oscillate strongly at high levels in the short term; bonds are expected to oscillate and correct at high levels; different commodity sectors have varying trends, with some being more volatile and others more stable [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas: The US dollar index is weakening, US Treasury yields are rising, and risk - aversion sentiment is increasing due to tariff policies. Domestically: Economic growth is slowing, trade deficit is decreasing, and policies are supporting consumption. The extension of the tariff truce and Fed rate - cut expectations are affecting domestic risk appetite [3]. Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as rare earths, precious metals, and semiconductors, the domestic stock market is rising. The short - term macro - upward drive has strengthened, and investors should focus on China - US trade negotiations and domestic incremental policies. Short - term cautious observation is recommended [4]. Precious Metals - On Thursday, precious metals rose slightly. Trade tensions and weak US economic data, such as poor non - farm payrolls and rising initial jobless claims, have increased the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September to over 90%. The inflation rebound has made the stagflation feature of the US economy more obvious. Precious metals are expected to remain in a slightly strong oscillating pattern in the short term [5]. Black Metals - **Steel**: On Thursday, the domestic steel spot market declined slightly, and demand continued to weaken. Steel inventory increased, and apparent consumption decreased. Supply was high due to high steel mill profits. Steel prices are expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [7]. - **Iron Ore**: On Thursday, iron ore prices weakened. Iron - water production is expected to decline further, and if northern region production restrictions are implemented, ore demand will weaken. Supply has some fluctuations, and iron ore prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [7]. Glass - On Thursday, the glass futures contract oscillated weakly. Supply pressure is high, but there are expectations of production cuts due to anti - involution policies. Demand from the real - estate industry is weak, and glass prices are expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [8][9]. Ferrous Alloys - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: On Thursday, prices continued to weaken. Demand from the steel industry is okay. Production in some regions is expected to increase, and prices are expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [8]. - **Soda Ash**: On Thursday, the soda - ash futures contract oscillated weakly. Supply is in an oversupply situation, demand is weak, and prices are expected to oscillate within a range [8]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: German industrial output declined, and new US tariffs have increased global economic pressure. Copper inventory is at a high level, and terminal demand may weaken [10]. - **Aluminum**: Boosted by the expectation of a Fed rate cut, LME aluminum previously led the rise but has now slowed. Fundamentally, domestic and LME inventories are increasing, and short - term upward space is limited [10]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Waste - aluminum supply is tight, production costs are rising, and it is in the demand off - season. Prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term but with limited upward space [11]. - **Tin**: Supply - side开工率 has increased significantly, but demand is weak, especially in the photovoltaic industry. Inventories are increasing, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: On Thursday, the lithium - carbonate futures contract rose significantly. Market concerns about production suspension have increased price volatility, and cautious observation is recommended [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: On Thursday, the industrial - silicon futures contract rose. The increase in coking - coal prices may drive the price, and it is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [14]. - **Polysilicon**: On Thursday, the polysilicon futures contract declined. The photovoltaic industry has anti - involution expectations, and the spot price provides support. With increasing warehouse receipts, prices are expected to oscillate at high levels in the short term [14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The market is waiting for a potential meeting between the US and Russian presidents, and oil prices are falling. Oil prices will continue to oscillate widely, and an oversupply situation may occur at the end of the year [15]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: It is testing the key resistance level. Port inventory is slightly decreasing, but supply pressure will increase in the future, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [16]. - **Asphalt**: Crude - oil price decline has weakened cost support. Inventory is neutral, and demand is weak. It will continue to oscillate weakly [16]. - **PX**: Due to plant shutdowns, demand has decreased slightly. The supply - demand pattern is still tight, and it will oscillate in the short term, waiting for changes in PTA plants and terminal orders [16]. - **PTA**: Processing fees are low, leading to new plant shutdowns. Spot trading is weak, and downstream demand is slowly recovering. The upside space is limited [16]. - **Short - fiber**: Affected by the decline in crude - oil prices and sector resonance, short - fiber prices are falling. Inventory is accumulating, and it may continue to be weak in the medium term [17]. - **Methanol**: The anti - involution sentiment has cooled, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly due to supply - demand pressure [17]. - **PP**: The anti - involution sentiment has cooled, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly due to strong supply and weak demand [17]. - **LLDPE**: Supply is increasing, demand is weak, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly [18]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: Overnight, CBOT soybeans rose. US soybean export sales in the week ending July 31 were higher than expected [19]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: Domestic soybean - meal spot prices are expected to oscillate around 2900 yuan/ton. Rapeseed - meal prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [19]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: Soybean - oil spot trading has improved, and there are opportunities for long - soybean - oil and short - palm - oil arbitrage. Rapeseed - oil fundamentals are stable [20][21]. - **Fats and Oils**: CBOT soybean - oil futures fell, and BMD palm - oil futures rose. Malaysia's palm - oil production and inventory increased in July, and exports were weak. The domestic short - term soybean - palm oil spread may rebound [21]. - **Corn**: Corn futures are falling, and spot prices are weak. Supply is expected to be sufficient in August, and high basis provides some support [21]. - **Pigs**: Farmers are reluctant to sell at low prices, and slaughterhouse orders are expected to increase after the Beginning of Autumn. Pig prices may stabilize [22].

【导读】英国降息25个基点 中国基金报记者 泰勒 大家好，简单关注一下英国央行降息的消息。 英国降息25个基点 外界普遍预期英国央行将在本次会议上降息25个基点，但交易员和经济学家更关注的是决策过程中央行内部的支持比例。 最终，货币政策委员会（MPC）中有5名成员投票支持将利率下调25个基点至4%，而另外4名成员则支持维持利率不变。此前一次三方意 见分裂的投票未能达成多数意见，因此本次是英国央行货币政策委员会28年历史上首次需要两轮投票才能作出利率决定。 英国央行行长安德鲁·贝利在书面声明中表示："这是一个非常微妙的决定。利率仍处于下行轨道，但未来的降息将需要逐步且谨慎地进 行。" 在此次决议公布前，经济学家普遍预计支持维持不变的票数会更少。这次分裂的投票结果凸显出英国央行内部对如何应对经济增长放缓与 通胀反弹并存的复杂局面的巨大分歧。 8月7日晚间，英国央行将基准利率从4.25%下调至4%，重启"逐步和谨慎"的降息路径。 此次降息是英国央行在过去一年内的第五次降息，维持了每季度一次的谨慎节奏。 1998年曾有一次货币政策委员会的决定需靠行长的投票打破僵局，但这一次的分歧更为复杂，最终通过两轮投票才达成决议， ...

经济学家补充说："如果印度通过减少对俄罗斯的采购来回应，全球油价可能会上涨。" 新华财经北京8月7日电凯投宏观表示，在美国将印度商品关税上调至50%之后，印度经济在2025年和 2026年可能增长接近6%，而不是目前预测的7%。 该机构的经济学家表示，更高的关税足以产生实质性影响，并将导致出口下降。他们表示，如果特朗普 周三宣布的额外25%的关税继续实施，印度作为新兴制造业中心的吸引力将受到极大损害。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

Group 1 - The U.S. President Trump has imposed an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods due to India's continued purchase of Russian energy, raising the total tariff rate to 50% [1] - Following the announcement, the iShares MSCI India ETF dropped to an intraday low, while oil prices increased, and the Indian Rupee stabilized at 87.91 against the U.S. dollar [1] - This tariff increase is part of Trump's strategy to reduce trade deficits, revitalize domestic manufacturing, and increase federal revenue, which poses risks to the global economy, including rising costs and potential supply chain disruptions [1] Group 2 - Market expectations for a rate cut in September have surged, with the CME FedWatch tool indicating an 87% probability following a weak employment report [2] - The dismissal of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics chief by Trump has further heightened policy uncertainty [2] - Gold, as a traditional safe-haven asset, is expected to perform strongly in the context of increased political and economic uncertainty and a low-interest-rate environment [2] Group 3 - Gold prices are projected to have room for growth, with a short-term target of $3,400, supported by ongoing tariff tensions, economic slowdown, and inflation concerns, as well as a weak dollar [3] Group 4 - The daily direction for gold (XAUUSD) is showing a bullish trend, with resistance levels at 3384, 3362, and 3410, and support levels at 3373, 3357, and 3344 [4] - The momentum for gold is strong, with a quantitative cycle exceeding three years and a reference value of at least 67.1% [4] Group 5 - The daily direction for the Euro against the U.S. dollar (EURUSD) is also showing a bullish trend, with resistance levels at 1.1692, 1.1731, and 1.1795, and support levels at 1.1637, 1.1590, and 1.1552 [5] - The momentum for EURUSD is moderate, with a quantitative cycle exceeding three years and a reference value of at least 67.1% [5]

证券研究报告·策略报告·策略点评 策略点评 20250804 全球为何普跌？——港股&海外周观察 2025 年 08 月 04 日 [Table_Summary] ◼ 本周（2025 年 7 月 28 日-2025 年 8 月 1 日）发达市场与新兴市场同时 转跌。从跌幅来看，发达市场和新兴市场均下跌 2.5%。 港股：本周恒生科技下跌 4.9%，恒指下跌 3.5%，恒生港股通下跌 3.2%。 行业上，医疗保健业领涨。 我们认为港股还处在震荡向上趋势中，下行有底。我们继续关注潜在增 配资金风险偏好。 1、部分资金在港股回调时加仓，能够为整个港股上涨提供动能。此外， 南向资金还有提高仓位潜力。 2、市场的共识是继续关注红利，自下而上寻找景气行业。存在分歧的 是互联网科技股票，部分资金仍然顾虑消费因素的影响，但也有部分资 金已经增配。 3、近期海外风险上行，美股因经济基本面和降息预期震荡加剧，一部 分外资或会短期切出美股，但是否选择进入港股还需继续观察。 4、尽管市场似乎对关税因素不再敏感，但随着本月美国对全球对等关 税开始生效，关税还是会影响被征收国家市场风偏。美国对华对等关税 策略还需要持续观察。 ◼ 美股： ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Williams anticipates a slowdown in economic growth to approximately 1% this year [1] Economic Outlook - The expected economic growth rate for this year is around 1% [1]