策 华福证券 2025 年 12 月 28 日 略 研 究 策 略 定 期 报 工业企业利润走弱不改制造业价格延续复苏—— 周观点 投资要点： 近期观点 1、 美联储扩表，美国商业银行调整资产结构。 2、 美国居民部门加杠杆迹象显现，但持续性存疑。 3、 中美算力芯片博弈是全球科技长期通缩的重要标志。 4、 美国 AI 泡沫一旦破灭，全球美元债务风险有望同步释放。 告 5、 关注美元可能阶段性走强所指引的风险信号，随后可能出现 美元美债美股三杀。 6、 中国市场有望在海外风险释放过程中进行风格上的长期大切 换，同时伴随人民币持续大幅升值。 7、 长期看好保险，央国企红利，反内卷行业，中概互联网，军 贸。 风险提示 全球制造业复苏受阻；中美关系改善不及预期；美国地产市场不 健康 团队成员 分析师： 李浩(S0210524050003) lh30530@hfzq.com.cn 分析师： 李刘魁(S0210524050006) llk30550@hfzq.com.cn 相关报告 1、医疗与消费周报——政策驱动与技术赋能下的 中国互联网医疗发展——2025.12.27 2、市场状态高频数据库——12 月第 3 周—— ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential bursting of the AI bubble in the U.S. stock market, highlighting the growing consensus on the risks associated with AI investments and the uncertainty surrounding the development of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) [2][3]. Group 1: AI Market Dynamics - A recent survey indicates that 95% of companies using generative AI in the U.S. have not turned a profit from the technology [3]. - The narrative surrounding AGI has led to significant investments, with AI-related spending contributing more to U.S. GDP growth than all consumer spending combined [3]. - Projections suggest that by mid-2025, 92% of U.S. GDP growth could stem from massive AI investments, yet many companies, including OpenAI, are facing substantial losses [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Comparisons - Investors are beginning to short the AI bubble, with notable figures like Michael Burry indicating that excessive spending and low returns could lead to the collapse of leading AI companies [3][4]. - The current AI bubble in the U.S. is compared to Japan's economic bubble, where companies inflated asset values through mutual investments and high valuations [4]. - The establishment of numerous data centers in the U.S. and their bundling into bonds is likened to the mortgage-backed securities that contributed to the subprime crisis, creating hidden leverage risks [4]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The article contrasts the U.S. approach to AI, which focuses on the uncertain future of AGI, with China's pragmatic strategy that emphasizes industry applications and efficiency [5]. - Chinese investments in AI are directed towards specific sectors like autonomous driving and biopharmaceuticals, creating a more sustainable business model [5]. - Financial institutions like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are warning of potential declines in U.S. tech stocks while expressing optimism about China's AI and electric vehicle sectors [5].