Core Viewpoint - The unprecedented decision by former President Donald Trump to dismiss Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook has sparked significant political and financial turmoil, challenging the century-old tradition of the Federal Reserve's independence [1][4]. Group 1: Impact on Federal Reserve Independence - Trump's action represents a direct challenge to the Federal Reserve's independence, which has been a cornerstone of the U.S. financial system since its establishment in 1913 [3][4]. - The Federal Reserve's governance structure, designed to ensure diverse and balanced monetary policy decisions, is at risk as Trump aims to replace dissenting members with allies [3][4]. Group 2: Legal and Political Repercussions - Lisa Cook's immediate response includes plans to file a lawsuit against the dismissal, asserting that the President lacks the authority to unilaterally remove a Federal Reserve Governor [3][4]. - The legal framework established by the Federal Reserve Act protects the independence of the Fed, requiring "just cause" for any dismissal, a safeguard that Trump has seemingly breached [4]. Group 3: Economic Context and Implications - The backdrop of this political maneuvering includes a slowing U.S. economy and high debt levels, with Trump seeking to pressure the Fed into lowering interest rates to stimulate growth [6]. - Experts warn that if the President can manipulate the Federal Reserve, it could lead to detrimental effects on the dollar's status as a global reserve currency, echoing issues faced by developing nations [6]. Group 4: Broader Political Landscape - Trump's actions are part of a broader strategy to retaliate against perceived political adversaries, indicating a systematic approach to consolidate power within the government [7]. - The political polarization in the U.S. is exacerbated by these events, with significant legislative changes occurring under Republican control, further entrenching party divisions [9].

"特朗普政府的高压策略可能适得其反。" 最新出炉的一项对94位美欧经济学家的调查显示，许多人担心，一旦美联储主席鲍威尔的任期在明年结束，特朗普政府对美联储的"攻击"将显现。 近期，特朗普政府对于美联储的干预已经引发各界担忧，即美联储通过设定利率来控制通胀的能力将受到损害。 根据日程，特朗普最新提名的美联储理事米兰(Stephen Miran)的听证会定于当地时间9月4日上午10点举行。届时，共和党将全力护航，确保提名获得通 过，而国会民主党人则已在私下承认无法单独阻止米兰的提名，该提名有可能在9月16日至17日的联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议前快速通过。 针对特朗普政府对美联储实施的高压政策以及他试图对美联储理事会造成的影响，美联储前高级经济学家、上海交通大学上海高级金融学院教授胡捷就对 第一财经记者表示，关于特朗普政府方面对利率政策的影响，短期内乃至2026年中之前，影响都不会太大，同时特朗普政府的高压策略可能适得其反。 经济学家再次警告投资者不要低估威胁 在上述调查中，经济学家警告称，投资者低估了特朗普政府对美联储的威胁。 "美联储将成为政府的傀儡。"接受此次调查的美国圣母大学经济学家鲍迈斯特（Chr ...

Core Viewpoint - Economists warn that financial markets have not fully absorbed the risks posed by Trump's attacks on the Federal Reserve, including high inflation and loss of investor confidence in U.S. Treasury bonds [1][2]. Group 1: Impact on Federal Reserve Independence - Trump's intervention raises concerns that the Fed's ability to control inflation through interest rate setting may be compromised [2]. - A survey of 94 economists indicates that many fear a permanent shift in the Fed's priorities towards employment and reducing government borrowing costs after Powell's term ends [2][4]. - 52% of surveyed economists expect a shift in the Fed's policy focus towards employment and government borrowing costs at the end of Powell's term, potentially at the expense of price stability [4]. Group 2: Economic Outlook and Risks - 42% of respondents believe Trump's attacks could unleash strong inflationary pressures, while 35% see loss of investor confidence in U.S. Treasury bonds as a significant risk [7]. - Only one respondent believes that Trump's attacks on Fed independence will not pose a substantial risk to the U.S. economy [10]. - Economists generally agree that a weakened Fed independence could harm the largest economy, with implications for lower and more stable inflation and financial stability [6]. Group 3: Market Reactions - 82% of respondents think that financial markets have only partially or slightly absorbed the impact of the White House's interference with the Fed, while 12% believe the markets have not absorbed these attacks at all [10]. - Market reactions to the firing of Fed Governor Lisa Cook were muted, contrasting with previous strong investor responses to threats against Powell [10].

Core Viewpoint - The conflict between President Trump and the Federal Reserve has significantly escalated following Trump's dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, marking a historic event as it is the first time in over a century that a president has removed a Fed governor [4]. Group 1: Dismissal of Lisa Cook - President Trump dismissed Lisa Cook citing allegations of mortgage fraud, and Cook's attorney announced plans to sue Trump for this action [4][6]. - Trump indicated he has a suitable replacement for Cook and is considering candidates such as Stephen Moore and David Malpass to fill the vacancy [5][8]. - The Federal Reserve's spokesperson emphasized that the law requires a valid reason for the dismissal of a governor, highlighting the importance of long-term terms and protections for Fed officials [6][10]. Group 2: Implications for the Federal Reserve - The Federal Reserve Board consists of seven members, and currently, only two were appointed by Trump, with the remaining four appointed by former President Biden [7]. - Trump's dissatisfaction with the Fed's reluctance to lower interest rates has led him to target Cook, aiming to create more vacancies and secure a majority of appointments for his administration [7][8]. - Experts warn that if Trump's dismissal of Cook is upheld, it could set a precedent for presidential influence over the Fed, potentially undermining its independence and leading to greater economic uncertainty in the future [11][12].

Core Points - President Trump dismissed Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook on grounds of alleged mortgage fraud, a move described as "unprecedented" and controversial [1] - Cook, the first Black woman to serve on the Federal Reserve Board, stated that she would continue her duties despite the dismissal [1] - Trump's letter cited Cook's alleged deceptive behavior regarding financial matters, questioning her integrity [1] Group 1: Legal and Institutional Context - The Federal Reserve Board consists of seven members, all nominated by the President and confirmed by the Senate, with only two members currently appointed by Trump [4] - Recent reports indicate that the President cannot arbitrarily dismiss Federal Reserve officials; legal scholars assert that valid reasons, such as misconduct, are required for such actions [8] - If Trump succeeds in dismissing Cook, it could set a precedent for presidential influence over the Federal Reserve, potentially undermining its independence [10] Group 2: Implications for Monetary Policy - Trump's dissatisfaction with the Federal Reserve's reluctance to lower interest rates has been noted, and the dismissal of Cook may be an attempt to create vacancies that favor his appointees [6] - If Trump gains a majority on the Federal Reserve Board, it could enhance his influence over monetary policy, particularly in favor of lower interest rates [9] - Experts warn that undermining the Federal Reserve's independence could lead to increased uncertainty in the U.S. economy and financial markets [10]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump dismissed Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook on grounds of alleged mortgage fraud, marking the first time in over a century that a president has removed a Fed governor, indicating a significant escalation in Trump's conflict with the Federal Reserve [1][3]. Group 1: Legal Actions and Statements - Lisa Cook's attorney announced plans to sue Trump over the dismissal, seeking judicial review of the decision [1][3]. - The Federal Reserve spokesperson stated that the law provides long-term fixed terms for governors, and a president can only dismiss them for "just cause," emphasizing the importance of this protection for monetary policy decisions [3][12]. Group 2: Trump's Intentions and Future Appointments - Trump expressed a desire for "100% transparency" in the Federal Reserve and indicated readiness for legal battles regarding Cook's dismissal, while also stating he has suitable candidates in mind to replace her [5][10]. - Reports suggest Trump is considering Stephen Moore and David Malpass as potential replacements for Cook on the Federal Reserve Board [5][10]. Group 3: Implications for the Federal Reserve's Independence - Experts warn that if Trump successfully dismisses Cook, it could set a precedent for presidential influence over the Federal Reserve, potentially undermining its independence and leading to greater economic uncertainty in the future [12][13]. - The Federal Reserve Board consists of seven members, with only two currently appointed by Trump, indicating a potential shift in the board's composition if more vacancies are created [8][10].

Core Viewpoint - The dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook by President Trump marks a significant escalation in the ongoing conflict between the Trump administration and the Federal Reserve, being the first such dismissal in over a century [1][4]. Group 1: Legal Actions and Implications - Lisa Cook's attorney announced plans to sue Trump over the dismissal, citing that the Federal Reserve Act allows for removal only under "just cause" [2]. - The Federal Reserve emphasized its commitment to fulfilling its legal responsibilities and adhering to any court rulings [2]. - Legal experts suggest that proving Cook's alleged mortgage fraud in court will be a significant challenge for the Trump administration [6]. Group 2: Political Motivations and Future Appointments - Trump indicated he has candidates in mind to replace Cook, aiming to secure a majority on the Federal Reserve Board [3][5]. - The current composition of the Federal Reserve Board includes members appointed by previous administrations, with only two being Trump appointees [4]. - Trump's dissatisfaction with the Federal Reserve's reluctance to lower interest rates has been a driving factor behind the dismissal [4][5]. Group 3: Independence of the Federal Reserve - Experts warn that if Trump's dismissal of Cook is upheld, it could set a precedent for presidential influence over the Federal Reserve, potentially undermining its independence [7][8]. - The independence of the Federal Reserve is crucial for maintaining stable and unbiased monetary policy, free from political pressures [7].

Group 1 - President Trump has threatened to dismiss Federal Reserve Board member Lisa Cook if she does not resign due to allegations of mortgage fraud [1] - Trump has been critical of the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates and has previously targeted Fed Chair Jerome Powell for various reasons [1] - Cook has stated she will not resign under pressure, despite the allegations made against her [1] Group 2 - If Cook is forced to leave the Federal Reserve, Trump would have the opportunity to exert more influence over U.S. monetary policy, potentially undermining the independence of the central bank [2] - Should a vacancy arise, four out of seven Federal Reserve Board seats would be appointed by Trump, increasing his control over the board [2] - A recent incident involved a Trump supporter confronting Cook at a public event, highlighting the political tensions surrounding her position [2]

Group 1 - The Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference will take place from August 21 to 23 in Wyoming, attracting global investor attention, particularly towards Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech, which is expected to provide insights into future monetary policy directions [1][4] - The theme of this year's conference is "Labor Market Transformation: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy," closely related to recent significant changes in the U.S. labor market, which has shown signs of cooling from May to July [3] - Non-farm payroll data for May and June was revised down by over 250,000, with only 73,000 new jobs added in July, and wage growth slowing from 6% in June 2022 to approximately 3.9% [3] Group 2 - U.S. inflation data has been mixed, with July's Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing moderate increases, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) surged by 0.9%, the largest monthly increase in over three years, indicating rising input inflation risks [5] - Investors are weighing economic data ahead of Powell's speech, with an approximately 80% probability of a Fed rate cut in September, as major banks like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs have adjusted their forecasts for the first rate cut from December to September [10] - JPMorgan predicts that if the unemployment rate rises to 4.4% or higher in August, the Fed may aggressively cut rates by 50 basis points in September, with expectations of three consecutive 25 basis point cuts in September, October, and December [11]

Group 1 - Spot gold prices experienced a slight rebound, trading around $3318.88 per ounce, while spot silver continued its fifth consecutive day of decline, trading at approximately $37.20 per ounce [1] - Recent U.S. economic data has unexpectedly declined, while stronger-than-expected PPI data suggests that Trump's tariff policies may still exert inflationary pressure, leading to a significant likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut at the September FOMC meeting [2] - The market for gold has been characterized by a stalemate due to uncertainty surrounding U.S. monetary policy and the dollar, with prices hovering around $3350 over the past three months, supported by stable investment demand [2] Group 2 - Technical analysis indicates that spot gold is in a bearish correction channel, with prices remaining below the 50-day EMA, suggesting continued downward pressure unless new positive signals emerge [3] - For spot silver, the 14-day RSI has dropped below 50, intensifying bearish sentiment, with prices likely to approach the support level at $37.11; a breach of this level could lead to further declines towards $35.70 and potentially as low as $32.96 [3] - Initial resistance for silver is seen at the 9-day EMA around $37.75, with a more significant challenge at the upper channel limit near $38.70; a breakthrough could shift market sentiment positively, allowing prices to target the July 23 high of $39.53 [3]