11月21日，金价盘中震荡下行，COMEX黄金期货价格目前交投于4032美元/盎司附近，黄金相关产品跌幅加大，截至15时12分，黄金ETF华夏跌0.75%， 黄金股ETF跌2.9%，有色金属ETF基金跌5.23%，盘中持续溢价，或为资金抢筹。 76.87万 7.46% 最 百 8.980 成交量 换手率 最 低 6.86亿 成交额 均 价 8.929 8.885 0.23% IOPV 8.8770 溢折率 升贴水率 -0.61% 净值走势 华夏黄金ETF(518850.OF) 8.9515 -0.57% 分时 ne EK lak 月K 电子 叠加 盘口 成交 9.046 0.91% 8.902 1 325 8.901 3 ST4 340 3 3 8.900 0.00% 305 8.899 size? 12 8.897 室1 8.896 35 si-1 8.882 29 8.895 11:30/13:00 09:30 量:76.87万 43 33 8.894 2.38万 14 8.893 st 4 312 8.892 | 流版 | 重仓 公告 | | | 资讯 | | | --- | --- | --- | - ...

Core Viewpoint - The delay in the September employment report due to the U.S. government shutdown has created uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's policy direction ahead of the upcoming FOMC meeting in December [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Expectations** - Wells Fargo analysts maintain the expectation that the Federal Reserve should lower interest rates by 25 basis points in December, despite acknowledging significant internal disagreements within the monetary policy decision-making body [1] - The discussion surrounding the potential rate cut in December is expected to be intense, with both supporting and opposing views being closely matched [1] - **Market Reactions and Economic Signals** - If the Federal Reserve decides to keep interest rates unchanged in December, it would not be surprising to Wells Fargo, indicating a cautious stance among financial institutions due to the lack of clear economic signals [1] - The analysis highlights the high uncertainty surrounding the current path of U.S. monetary policy, with potential significant discrepancies between market expectations and actual decisions as the December FOMC meeting approaches [1] - Global financial markets will closely monitor subsequent economic data and signals from Federal Reserve officials' speeches [1]

美国9月就业报告强于预期，引发市场对美国货币政策鹰派预期，促黄金、白银价格走弱。当日全球股 市强劲上涨也抑制了避险金属买盘兴趣。 美国劳工部20日发布的9月就业报告显示，美国9月份非农就业人数增加11.9万人，远高于此前预期的5 万人增幅。整体失业率从8月份的4.3%小幅上升至4.4%。劳工部此前表示，由于数据不足，将取消发布 10月份就业报告，部分10月份就业数据将被纳入美联储12月10日联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议决 议后发布的报告中。此举促使交易员下调了对美联储12月降息25个基点的预期。 19日发布的10月联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议纪要也略显鹰派，许多美联储官员认为，在2025年 剩余时间维持美国利率不变可能是合适的。但是，也有"一些与会者"表示，如果经济在下次会议前"发 展情况与他们的预期基本一致"，那么在12月再次降息"很可能是合适的"。鉴于委员会内部在通胀和失 业哪个对美国经济构成更大威胁的问题上仍存在分歧，这份纪要凸显了美联储下个月降息的不确定性。 新华财经纽约11月20日电（记者徐静）纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的2025年12月黄金期价 20日下跌6.1美元，收于每盎 ...

编辑：王一帆 上周，美国政府结束"停摆"，提振了市场风险偏好，但与此同时，美国货币政策路径的不确定性加剧， 叠加市场对科技股估值过高的担忧，美股主要指数在上周四出现一个多月来的最差单日表现，科技股纷 纷下跌。全周来看，美国三大股指涨跌不一，纳指跌0.45%，道指涨0.34%，标普500指数涨0.08%。 （总台央视记者 渠莎莎） ...

Core Insights - Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook anticipates persistent high inflation in the U.S. over the next year due to the impact of tariff policies on the economy [1][3] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs is affecting corporate pricing strategies, with some companies reducing inventory at lower prices before cost increases [3] - The recent 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is seen as appropriate, but the balance between rising inflation risks and a weakening labor market is a concern [5] Group 1 - Cook indicated that tariffs are increasing costs for U.S. businesses, which may keep inflation elevated in the coming year [3] - She noted that interactions with business leaders suggest that the impact of tariffs on consumer prices has not fully materialized [3] - Cook is prepared to take strong action if the effects of tariffs are larger or more prolonged than expected [3] Group 2 - The ongoing federal government shutdown is expected to exert pressure on economic activity this quarter and may have spillover effects on the private sector [3] - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates again reflects a belief that the downside risks to employment outweigh the upside risks to inflation [5] - Cook emphasized that future monetary policy is not on a predetermined path, leaving the December rate decision uncertain [5]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Powell as "incompetent" and indicated that a new candidate will be appointed when Powell's term ends in May 2024, which could significantly impact U.S. monetary policy and the independence of the central bank [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Leadership Changes - The candidate pool for the next Federal Reserve Chairman has narrowed to five individuals, including current Fed board members and senior figures from the White House and Wall Street [3]. - Trump aims to finalize his nominee by the end of this year, which may reflect underlying issues regarding Powell's position [3][4]. - The new chairman's selection is crucial as it will directly influence the future direction of U.S. monetary policy [1]. Group 2: Candidate Profiles - Kevin Hassett, closely associated with Trump, has held senior positions in the White House and is seen as a potential choice, though his appointment may threaten the Fed's independence [4]. - Kevin Walsh, who served on the Fed during the 2008 financial crisis, has been critical of the Fed's past policies, aligning with Trump's views [4]. - Christopher Waller, appointed by Trump in 2020, is familiar with the Fed's operations and may align with Trump's reform expectations [5]. - Michelle Bowman has opposed many regulatory measures from the Biden administration, appealing to Trump's desire for comprehensive Fed reform [5]. - Rick Reed, a Wall Street figure, is noted for his market knowledge but lacks familiarity with the Fed's internal bureaucracy, potentially offering a fresh perspective [5].

Core Viewpoint - President Trump criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Powell as "incompetent" and indicated that a new candidate will be appointed when Powell's term ends in May 2024, which could significantly impact U.S. monetary policy and the independence of the central bank [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Leadership Changes - Trump's comments suggest a desire for a significant shift in the Federal Reserve's leadership, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut in the upcoming policy meeting [1]. - The candidate pool for the new Federal Reserve Chairman has narrowed to five individuals, including current Fed board members and economic advisors, with interviews planned for November [3]. - The selection of a new chairman is critical as it will influence the future direction of U.S. monetary policy and the central bank's independence [1][3]. Group 2: Candidate Profiles - Kevin Hassett, a close associate of Trump, is seen as a strong candidate, but his appointment may threaten the Fed's independence during economic crises [4]. - Kevin Walsh, who has previously criticized the Fed's policies, is also a leading candidate and aligns with Trump's views on monetary policy [4]. - Christopher Waller, appointed by Trump in 2020, is considered a potential candidate who understands the Fed's operations and could implement reforms aligned with Trump's preferences [5]. - Michelle Bowman has a background in banking regulation and has opposed many Biden-era policies, making her an attractive option for Trump [5]. - Rick Reed, a Wall Street executive, is noted for his market knowledge but lacks familiarity with the Fed's internal workings, which could provide a fresh perspective [5].

Core Points - President Trump criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Powell as "incompetent" and indicated that a new candidate will be appointed by May next year [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming policy meeting, marking the second consecutive rate cut [1] - The selection of the new chairman is crucial as it will directly influence the future direction of U.S. monetary policy and the independence of the central bank [1] Candidate Selection - The candidate pool for the new Federal Reserve Chairman has been narrowed down to five individuals, including current Fed board members and senior figures from the White House and Wall Street [3] - Treasury Secretary Becerra plans to conduct new interviews and submit a "quality candidate list" to President Trump by the end of November [3] - Trump aims to finalize his nominee by the end of this year, which may reflect complex factors surrounding Powell's position [3] Candidate Profiles - Kevin Walsh and Kevin Hassett are seen as frontrunners, both having close ties to Trump [4] - Hassett's strong loyalty to Trump makes him an attractive choice, but his appointment could threaten the Fed's independence [4] - Walsh has previously criticized the Fed's deviation from its price stability mission, aligning with Trump's views [4] - Waller, appointed by Trump in 2020, is familiar with Fed operations and may align with Trump's reform expectations [4] - Bowman has opposed many regulatory measures from the Biden era, appealing to Trump's desire for comprehensive Fed reform [4] - Reed, a Wall Street figure, offers a fresh perspective but lacks familiarity with the Fed's internal bureaucracy [5]

Report Title - Weekly Report on Precious Metals - Gold and Silver [1] Report Date and Author - Date: October 28, 2025 - Author: Wang Wenhu from the Research Institute [2] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Sino-US economic and trade relations' easing may put pressure on precious metal prices; Fed's possible rate cut and stop of balance sheet reduction in the long term support precious metal prices; some central banks' gold - related actions have mixed impacts on prices. It is expected that precious metal prices may adjust, and investors are advised to wait and see [3] Summary by Sections Part 1: US Fiscal and Monetary Policy - **Fiscal Situation**: US unpaid public debt scale increased by $30.8 billion to $3.80 trillion; 2025 Q3 Treasury net issuance was $964.5 billion, and Q4 may decline. Permanent expansion of additional tax credits may increase fiscal deficits by $23.4 - $43.9 billion from 2026 - 2035; abolition of health insurance - related provisions may increase deficits by $1.4 - $37.5 billion [10] - **Monetary Policy Tools**: Fed's daily overnight reverse repurchase scale was $2.435 billion; bank reserve balance decreased, overnight reverse repurchase agreement scale increased, and Treasury cash account increased. The temporary appropriation bill passed by the House failed in the Senate. Fed's lending to commercial banks showed different trends, and the regular financing plan BTFP expired. The Fed used the standing repurchase facility SRF, with a cumulative use of $30.6 billion [11][13][16][17] - **Inflation and Interest Rates**: US September CPI was 3% year - on - year, core CPI was 3% year - on - year. October consumer inflation expectations were 4.6% (1 - year) and 3.9% (5 - year). Mid - long - term Treasury yields decreased due to Fed's expected rate cuts and stop of balance sheet reduction. The spread between long - and mid - term Treasuries was positive and widened [19][21][26] - **Financial Stress Index**: The US OFR financial stress index decreased to - 2.0930, with some sub - indicators rising. The Fed's use of SRF eased inter - bank liquidity [29] Part 2: US Economic and Employment Performance - **Commercial Bank Loans**: US commercial bank loan and lease volume increased week - on - week, with different trends in various loan types [33][35] - **Retail Sales**: US Redbook commercial retail sales annual rate decreased to 5.0% week - on - week, but consumer spending remained relatively stable [38] - **Mortgage Applications**: US 15 - year and 30 - year mortgage fixed rates decreased, MBA mortgage application activity index decreased, and August new and existing home sales increased [41] - **Employment**: US initial jobless claims were 218,000, lower than expected and previous values; continued claims were 1.926 million, lower than expected but higher than previous values. September ADP private employment decreased by 32,000, indicating concerns about a weakening job market [44] - **International Bond Yield Spreads**: The spreads between US and German (Japanese) mid - long - term Treasury yields decreased due to different central bank policies [47] - **Exchange Rates**: Euro - US dollar exchange rate may bottom out, and US dollar - Chinese yuan exchange rate may weaken [48] - **Market Volatility**: US S&P 500 and gold ETF index volatilities decreased [50] Part 3: Gold - Silver Spread and Inventory Situation - **Gold**: COMEX gold non - commercial long - short position ratio decreased; COMEX and SHFE total gold inventory decreased. Gold futures and spot spreads, basis, and near - far contract spreads were at different levels, with corresponding investment suggestions [56][58][60][67][69][72] - **Silver**: London silver 1 - month lease rate decreased significantly; COMEX silver non - commercial long - short position ratio increased; COMEX, SHFE, and SGE total silver inventory decreased. Silver futures and spot spreads, basis, and near - far contract spreads were at different levels, with corresponding investment suggestions [73][76][79][83][84][85] - **Ratio Analysis**: "Gold - silver ratio" was between the 50 - 75% quantiles of the past five years; "Gold - oil ratio" and "Gold - copper ratio" were much higher than the 90% quantiles of the past five years, with corresponding investment suggestions [87][89]

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary confirmed five candidates for the Federal Reserve Chair position, with President Trump expected to make a final decision by the end of the year [1] - Candidates include current Fed Governor Christopher Waller, Michelle Bowman, former Fed Governor Kevin Walsh, White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, and BlackRock executive Rick Reed [1] - The market anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting, marking the second consecutive cut, while Trump previously expressed a desire for a 300 basis point cut [1] Group 2 - The FOMC is facing a dilemma, with rising unemployment concerns prompting a rate cut in September, while inflation remains nearly one percentage point above the 2% target [2] - Strong economic growth in the third quarter has led some officials to be cautious about premature or excessive easing of monetary policy [2] - The outlook for U.S. monetary policy remains uncertain and divided among decision-makers [2]