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特朗普威胁罢免美联储理事库克,盟友央行大会现场质问库克、被驱离会场
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-22 18:13
特朗普的此番言论加大了其对美联储的施压力度。数月来,他一直批评美联储维持利率不变的决定。 他此前已多次抨击美联储主席鲍威尔,不仅因货币政策决定,还包括华盛顿总部翻修工程的超支。本 周,他又将矛头指向库克。库克由前美国总统拜登任命,任期至2038年。 周三,特朗普呼吁库克辞职,此前联邦住房金融局局长Bill Pulte指控库克在贷款申请中造假以获取优惠 条件,从而涉嫌房贷欺诈。库克回应称,她不会因胁迫而辞职。 周五,美国总统特朗普对记者表示,如果美联储理事会成员丽莎·库克(Lisa Cook)不因房贷欺诈指控 而辞职,他将罢免她。"如果她不辞职,我就会开除她。" 根据《联邦储备法》第10条,美联储理事会成员可因"正当理由"被解职。今年以来,特朗普已多次威胁 要解职鲍威尔。而最高法院在今年5月表明,特朗普不能在没有正当理由的情况下简单地解雇理事会成 员,包括鲍威尔在内。 Pulte周四在彭博电视上表示,他将库克移交司法部调查是更广泛打击房贷欺诈行动的一部分,并补充 说,联邦当局将对此展开调查,与被调查者的政治立场无关。 如果库克被迫离开美联储理事会,特朗普将有机会进一步掌控美联储,从而对美国货币政策施加更多影 响 ...
贵金属深陷下降通道 看跌格局延续
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-08-20 09:57
Group 1 - Spot gold prices experienced a slight rebound, trading around $3318.88 per ounce, while spot silver continued its fifth consecutive day of decline, trading at approximately $37.20 per ounce [1] - Recent U.S. economic data has unexpectedly declined, while stronger-than-expected PPI data suggests that Trump's tariff policies may still exert inflationary pressure, leading to a significant likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut at the September FOMC meeting [2] - The market for gold has been characterized by a stalemate due to uncertainty surrounding U.S. monetary policy and the dollar, with prices hovering around $3350 over the past three months, supported by stable investment demand [2] Group 2 - Technical analysis indicates that spot gold is in a bearish correction channel, with prices remaining below the 50-day EMA, suggesting continued downward pressure unless new positive signals emerge [3] - For spot silver, the 14-day RSI has dropped below 50, intensifying bearish sentiment, with prices likely to approach the support level at $37.11; a breach of this level could lead to further declines towards $35.70 and potentially as low as $32.96 [3] - Initial resistance for silver is seen at the 9-day EMA around $37.75, with a more significant challenge at the upper channel limit near $38.70; a breakthrough could shift market sentiment positively, allowing prices to target the July 23 high of $39.53 [3]
特朗普怒喷鲍威尔 “灾难”,这场美联储内斗藏着多少狠招?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-20 03:59
Group 1 - The core issue revolves around the conflict between former President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, with Trump criticizing Powell for maintaining high interest rates, which he claims is damaging the U.S. housing industry [2][3][4] - Trump's urgent call for interest rate cuts is driven by the significant impact of high rates on the housing market, where mortgage rates have surged above 7%, leading to a 23% drop in new home sales [5][6] - The housing industry is crucial to the U.S. economy, accounting for nearly 15% of GDP, making it a key indicator of economic health [6][7] Group 2 - Powell's resistance to lowering interest rates is based on persistent core PCE inflation at 3.2% and a robust job market, which he believes could lead to a resurgence of inflation if rates are cut [9][10] - The independence of the Federal Reserve is questioned, as historical precedents show past chairpersons have been influenced by political figures, yet Powell is determined to maintain this independence despite Trump's pressure [10][12] - The ongoing standoff between Trump and Powell poses risks not only to the U.S. economy but also to the global economy, as changes in U.S. interest rates can have widespread implications for global capital flows and economic stability [20][22][24]
新兴市场货币回落 市场关注焦点从乌克兰转向美联储
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-19 20:58
Core Viewpoint - Emerging market currencies experienced a slight decline as traders processed signs of progress in Ukraine peace negotiations while awaiting more insights on U.S. monetary policy from the Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting in Jackson Hole [1] Group 1: Currency Market - The MSCI Emerging Market Currency Index fell slightly, marking its fourth consecutive day of decline, influenced by the Brazilian real, Indonesian rupiah, and Colombian peso [1] - The U.S. dollar saw a modest increase amid low trading volumes as traders focused on Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech to solidify their bets on a rate cut in September [1] Group 2: Stock Market - The index tracking emerging market stocks also experienced a slight decline, reflecting the overall negative sentiment in the currency market [1]
美联储理事鲍曼:支持今年降息三次
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-09 23:48
来源:格隆汇APP 格隆汇8月10日|于2018年被时任总统特朗普任命为美联储理事、美联储7月会议持异议的鲍曼周六发布 了两条重要消息。其一,她支持今年降息三次。其二,她将于10月9日主持社区银行会议。 在演讲中关于货币政策和美国经济的部分,鲍曼表示,她赞成今年降息三次,敦促美联储的其他决策者 也在美联储下次于9月召开的会议上(支持)开始降息,称最近疲软的劳动力市场数据也强化了她的观 点。此举"将有助于避免劳动力市场状况进一步不必要地恶化,并降低委员会在劳动力市场进一步恶化 时需要实施更大规模政策修正的可能性。" 鲍曼重申,她认为关税驱动的价格上涨不太可能持续推高通胀。联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)今年一直 维持利率不变,鲍曼直到6月也一直支持这一立场。但在7月,她与美联储理事沃勒均支持降息25基点。 ...
招金矿业20250731
2025-08-05 03:20
Summary of the Conference Call Company: Zhaojin Mining Industry Co., Ltd. Key Points Industry Overview - Geopolitical conflicts and de-globalization trends are driving gold demand, offsetting the negative impact of high U.S. real interest rates on gold prices [2][3] - Global central banks and private capital are increasing gold allocations, diminishing the explanatory power of traditional interest rate models on gold prices [2] - The U.S. Federal Reserve's recent meeting maintained interest rates, with a slight reduction in expectations for a rate cut in September [2][5] - The relationship between U.S. real interest rates and gold prices has weakened significantly since the Russia-Ukraine conflict began in February 2022 [3] Gold Market Dynamics - U.S. 10-year real interest rates are at historical highs but are on a downward trend, with inflation data and Fed policy being key observation points [2][5] - Gold ETFs in Europe and North America dominate the global market, accounting for over 93% of the total, with net purchases showing a negative correlation with U.S. real interest rates [8] - Despite a net outflow from global gold ETFs, there has been a net inflow in the first half of 2025, indicating a gradual recovery in investment demand [2][9] Central Bank Purchases - Central bank purchases of gold provide solid support for gold prices, accounting for over 25% of total gold demand [10] - Countries like Poland and China have been actively increasing their gold reserves, reflecting a long-term bullish outlook on gold [10] Company-Specific Insights - Zhaojin Mining is expanding its production capacity through internal growth and acquisitions, notably the successful acquisition of Australian company Iron Road [4][11] - The Haidi Gold Mine, as the second-largest single gold mine in China, is expected to significantly boost production capacity [12] - The Abidjan Gold Mine has commenced production and is nearing full capacity, with a projected annual output of approximately 5.28 tons [14][15] Financial Performance and Projections - Zhaojin Mining's target price is set at HKD 27, indicating a potential upside of about 40% [11] - The company anticipates a 169% growth in 2024, positioning itself as the third-largest gold producer in China [20] - Future earnings are projected to be approximately CNY 3.25 billion in 2025, with potential increases if gold prices rise above CNY 790 per gram [19] Governance and Management Changes - Recent changes in governance, including a younger management team, have improved operational efficiency and reduced management expense ratios [18] - The partnership with Zijin Mining is expected to create synergies in investment, technology, and talent development [17] Risks and Challenges - Potential asset impairment losses could negatively impact profitability [29] - Risks associated with the construction of the Haidi Gold Mine and overseas operations in politically unstable regions [29] - Environmental concerns related to mining practices, such as cyanide use and waste management [29] Conclusion Zhaojin Mining is well-positioned for growth in the gold mining sector, supported by favorable market dynamics and strategic acquisitions. However, it must navigate various risks, including operational challenges and market fluctuations.
美国法官驳回让美联储公开议息诉求 称其为宣传噱头
智通财经网· 2025-07-28 22:28
Azoria在诉状中表达了对美联储主席鲍威尔的不满。该基金称,美联储持续维持高利率是为了"打压特 朗普总统及其经济议程",并指责此举"损害了美国人民和美国经济的利益"。 值得注意的是,Howell法官在庭审中提出质疑,认为Azoria可能并非真心追求透明,而是借助诉讼博取 媒体关注、为其新基金造势。 她指出,Azoria在上周的法庭文件中主动提及其首席执行官James Fishback在福克斯商业频道节目中谈 论了本次诉讼,"我注意到这非常不寻常。我从未见过这样的内容出现在法律认证文件中。" 智通财经APP获悉,美国联邦地区法院一名法官周一驳回了一家投资基金试图强制美联储公开本周利率 会议的法律请求。该裁定确认,负责制定美国货币政策的联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)并非联邦"阳光法 案"所规定的政府机构,因此不需要向公众开放其会议。 提出这一诉讼的,是新成立的投资基金Azoria Capital。该基金向位于华盛顿特区的联邦法院提出临时限 制令申请,要求法官强制FOMC将即将在本周二和周三举行的利率决策会议向公众开放。 然而,负责审理此案的法官Beryl Howell拒绝了这一请求,并指出FOMC长期以来"闭门 ...
太会挑时间了!美国总统时隔近20年首次,特朗普到访美联储,鲍威尔为何现场面无表情直摇头?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-26 23:05
据中新经纬报道,特朗普访问美联储,有意思的是特朗普当着记者面,直接询问鲍威尔"什么时候降息?" 本次特朗普以考察美联储大楼翻修情况的名义正式造访美联储。这场造访之路历经了20多年。 此前,特朗普因为加征关税,爱泼斯坦案,身体健康等问题引起美国民众的不满,支持率一跌再跌。 令人可笑的是,特朗普在镜头面前展示出独有的笑容时,美联储主席鲍威尔却面无表情,甚至镜头敏锐的捕捉了鲍威尔轻微摇头的画面。这样的动作犹如一 颗石子,投入平静的湖面,激起千层波浪。 双方利率之争一触即发。特朗普进一步以美联储大楼翻修,成本超出预支为由,想要以此介入美联储。 美联储作为美国中央银行,应该对于经济形势有着宏观的判断,而并非遵从政治要求,如果每联储的独立性受到破坏,那么对于那些一直购买美债的投资 者,将要收到巨大的打击,剧烈的经济冲击,引起金融市场的动荡。 特朗普与鲍威尔有非常渊源的交集,他们曾在公开场合对峙。早些年,特朗普曾经公开抨击美联储加息的决定,甚至还说出想要炒掉鲍威尔。 疫情期间,特朗普更是以总统的身份施压美联储配合自己的经济政策。 在美国,美联储拥有绝对的独立地位。曾经,美联储迫于政治压力配合政府增长目标而维持低利率,最终引 ...
纽约联储行长:关税冲击预计将推高美国通胀1个百分点
news flash· 2025-07-17 03:00
Core Viewpoint - The current "moderately tight" monetary policy in the U.S. is deemed appropriate, allowing the Federal Reserve to observe economic trends and assess risks for potential policy adjustments [1] Economic Forecast - The economic impact of the Trump administration's increased import tariffs is just beginning to manifest, with inflation expected to rise by approximately 1 percentage point in the second half of the year and early next year [1] - The U.S. economic growth rate is projected to slow down to 1% this year [1] - The unemployment rate is anticipated to increase from the current 4.1% to 4.5% by the end of the year [1] - The inflation rate is expected to remain between 3% and 3.5% for the entire year [1]
美国发债大潮在即,美股能抗住吗?
3 6 Ke· 2025-07-15 02:49
Group 1 - The article discusses the macroeconomic outlook for the U.S., suggesting a "big fiscal + loose monetary" environment leading to inflation, similar to the pandemic and Biden's era, requiring a compliant Federal Reserve for low interest rates [1][4] - U.S. federal debt has surged to nearly $30 trillion, up from $17 trillion in 2019, with net interest rates increasing from 2.4% to 3.6%, indicating a heavy debt burden [1][4] - The combination of increased revenue from tariffs and reduced interest payments could free up approximately $650 billion for federal finances, potentially offsetting new deficits from the "big beautiful plan" starting in 2026 [6][4] Group 2 - The article highlights the importance of the upcoming earnings season for U.S. stocks, particularly focusing on tech companies with significant overseas revenue, which may benefit from a weaker dollar [10][16] - The U.S. Treasury is expected to issue short-term treasury bills to raise cash, with a target to increase the Treasury General Account (TGA) balance to $5 trillion by the end of July [10][11] - The performance of the stock market may face downward pressure if the earnings outlook is not strong, especially if the Federal Reserve does not unexpectedly lower interest rates [11][14] Group 3 - Key earnings reports to watch include ASML, TSMC, and Netflix, with specific focus areas such as revenue performance, market outlook, and subscription growth [16][17] - ASML's earnings will be scrutinized for revenue and gross margin performance, as well as insights on the semiconductor manufacturing sector [17] - Netflix's report will be important for understanding subscription revenue growth and future pricing strategies [17]