2月24日，周二亚盘时段现货黄金（Gold）走势呈现明显的冲高回落特征。黄金在触及5230美元月度高 点后迅速回调，结束此前连续上涨行情。市场资金开始从短线追涨转向获利了结，导致金价上涨斜率明 显放缓。美国货币政策仍是影响黄金走势的核心变量。美联储近期会议纪要显示，多位官员认为，在通 胀回落趋势未完全稳定前，不应急于推进新一轮宽松周期。 与此同时，美国贸易政策变化也对市场情绪产生影响。美国总统特朗普提出新的全球关税计划，使市场 对全球经济增长前景产生担忧。虽然经济增长放缓通常会提升黄金避险需求，但当前市场交易逻辑更多 受到美元流动性与利率预期主导。地缘政治方面，中东地区局势仍然存在潜在冲突风险，市场持续关注 美伊核谈判进展。潜在军事冲突风险通常会提升避险资产需求，为黄金提供中长期支撑。总体来看，黄 金当前处于宏观不确定性支撑与货币政策压制的双重博弈阶段。 从日线级别观察，黄金整体趋势结构仍然偏多，但短期已进入上涨后的结构性调整周期。价格在5238美 元附近形成阶段性高点后开始回落，显示短期多头动能逐渐衰减。均线系统方面，黄金仍运行在中长期 均线之上，但价格与均线之间出现明显距离。短期均线虽仍维持向上趋势，但价 ...

Core Viewpoint - Shanghai Gold Exchange has adjusted the margin levels and price fluctuation limits for certain contracts to enhance market stability and risk management [1][2]. Group 1: Margin Adjustments - The margin ratio for Au (T+D), mAu (T+D), Au (T+N1), Au (T+N2), NYAuTN06, and NYAuTN12 contracts has been reduced from 21% to 18%, with the price fluctuation limit changing from 20% to 17% starting February 24 [1]. - The margin ratio for Ag (T+D) contracts has been decreased from 27% to 24%, and the fluctuation limit has been adjusted from 26% to 23% [1]. - The margin for CAu99.99 contracts has been modified from 200,000 yuan to 180,000 yuan per contract [1]. Group 2: Market Conditions - As of February 24, the spot gold price is at 5169 USD/ounce, and the spot silver price is at 88.07 USD/ounce, both remaining at recent high levels [2]. - The Shanghai Gold Exchange reported a 3.59% increase in gold T+D and a 13.97% increase in silver T+D as of the same date [2]. - The market is influenced by U.S. monetary policy, with the Federal Reserve indicating a cautious approach to new easing cycles until inflation trends stabilize [3]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly regarding U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations, are contributing to increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold [4]. - UBS has maintained a positive outlook on gold, projecting a target price of 6200 USD/ounce in the coming months, driven by strong investment flows and central bank purchases [4].

2月24日，当地时间周一，美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒在第42届全国商业经济学会（NABE）经济政策年会上发表讲话，期间对他的鸽派立场进行些许修 正，同时强调美国经济数据正表现出令人困惑的反差。 作为背景，过去半年沃勒两度投票反对美联储利率决议，呼吁美国货币政策制定者应更加重视劳动力市场的疲软信号。 他认为，今年要么就业增长会重新出现，要么"我们正处在一个我此生从未见过的经济活动阶段"。他说："总有些东西必须被纠正。" 基于1月非农就业报告中的例行年度修正，美国2025年全年新增的非农就业数据只有18.1万个，折合每月仅为1.5万。考虑到修订数据仅涵盖前3个月，按照美 国就业数据"虚高"的惯例，后面9个月的数字很有可能在明年初迎来一波大幅下修。 沃勒警告称，2025年的就业创造异常疲弱，是自2002年以来、除经济衰退时期外最弱的一年。如果最终数据修订至负数，将会是1945年以来第三次发生这种 情况，因此"1个月的好消息并不能构成趋势"。 他也预告称，如果2月就业数字更贴近2025年的水平，他更有可能继续推动降息，而出现好坏两种结果的概率"几乎是抛硬币"。 他在周一的演讲中表示，如果2月数据能延续1月的强劲态势， ...

在全球经济风云变幻的今天，美国货币政策的每一次调整都牵动着世界的神经。最近，美联储主席鲍威尔宣布暂停降息，不到24小时，特朗普 就正式宣布，他将提名凯文·沃什出任美联储，换掉鲍威尔。。这一连串事件不仅揭示了美国内部权力斗争的复杂性，更让外界对未来的美国 经济政策充满了疑问和期待。 鲍威尔的决定，标志着美联储对美国经济复苏信心的增强。在经历了几次激进加息之后，美国经济似乎在步入稳定的发展轨道。然而，这背后 是否隐藏着更为复杂的经济逻辑呢？我们常常看到，美联储通过加息来抑制通货膨胀，同时希望以此提升美元的国际地位。然而，这种策略却 并非总能如愿以偿。 在未来的几个月里，美联储的每一个决策都将成为全球投资者关注的焦点。如果沃什如愿上任，他很可能会在战略上采取更为严厉的措施，以 维护美元的强势地位。然而，经济学家们警告称，大幅削减货币政策的干预可能会引发股市的剧烈波动，甚至加剧经济的不确定性。在全球经 济动荡、地缘政治紧张加剧的大背景下，如何找到一条平衡之道，成为了摆在美联储面前的一道难题。 综上所述，特朗普对美联储主席的人事更替，虽然是权力与忠诚的较量，但其背后体现的却是美国经济政策的深层次变革。不论未来的选择如 ...

来源：商业周刊 据特朗普总统在其社交平台 Truth Social 上发布的消息，特朗普表示他打算提名凯文·沃什担任下一任美 联储主席。 "我认识凯文很久了，我毫不怀疑他会成为美联储历史上最伟大的主席之一，甚至可能是最伟大的，"特 朗普写道。"除此之外，他简直就是'完美人选'，他永远不会让你们失望。" 沃什曾在2006年至2011年担任美联储理事，并曾为特朗普提供经济政策建议。他将在杰罗姆·鲍威尔的 任期于5月结束后接任美联储主席一职。对于现年55岁的沃什来说，这标志着他重返政坛。2017年，特 朗普总统选择了鲍威尔，而沃什则未能获得美联储主席这一职位。 如果获得参议院确认，这位前美联储理事将执掌美国货币政策。目前，许多经济学家和投资者认为，美 国货币政策历来不受民选官员干预，而白宫的干预正威胁着这一局面。沃什公开主张降低利率，这与他 长期以来作为通胀鹰派的形象大相径庭，也表明他与总统在大选中立场一致。 美元维持涨势，美国股指期货走低，此前特朗普证实他将选择沃什担任美联储主席。尽管沃什呼应了特 朗普降低借贷成本和改革美联储的呼吁，但鉴于他在美联储任职期间对通胀的担忧以及近期对美联储庞 大资产负债表的批评，交易 ...

因为这件事直接影响到美国金融体系的稳健，美元以及美债还会不会成为全球资本的"避险港"就在此一举。同时，还有美国AI泡沫越做越大，英伟达等科技 公司能不能替特朗普稳住这一经济动力的引擎，都是2026年存在的隐患。 当然，如果要从美国上层社会的博弈说回到"斩杀线"这一问题，就不得不提"大而美"法案。 那么通胀数据飙升，就不得不说美联储在2026年也或将迎来重大变革。 原本要承诺改变美国不断扩大债务赤字现状的特朗普在重返白宫之后，一改常态继续扩大美债规模，甚至操作力度更加疯狂，也因此导致与马斯克的直接决 裂。 特朗普一直威逼美联储主席鲍威尔采取激进的降息措施，但收效甚微，考虑到美国货币政策能不能对关税战打配合以及特朗普个人的政治利益，那么对鲍威 尔下手或许才是2026年全世界最大的一颗雷。 这种情况也在情理之中，毕竟联邦政府寅吃卯粮已经是改不掉毛病，关税撑死能为联邦政府每年带来3000亿美元的收入，而所谓上万亿美元的投资什么时候 能落地还没个准话。要维持美国在全球的霸权体系以及内部的"美国再次伟大"美梦，只能继续接美债。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report suggests a tactical overweight in A/H shares, U.S. stocks, and gold, while recommending an underweight in U.S. Treasuries and crude oil due to various economic and geopolitical factors. Group 1: U.S. Treasury and Monetary Policy - The uncertainty surrounding the new Federal Reserve chairperson is increasing, leading to heightened market speculation regarding U.S. monetary policy, which makes U.S. Treasuries less attractive compared to risk assets [1][3] - The U.S. labor market is cooling, and lower energy prices along with slow wage growth are likely to reduce inflationary pressures, providing the Federal Reserve with more room to adjust monetary policy [3] - U.S. Treasury yields are expected to decline moderately, but the uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's leadership is causing a lower risk-return ratio for Treasuries compared to risk assets [3] Group 2: Chinese Equity Market - Multiple factors support the performance of Chinese equities, leading to a recommendation for an overweight in A/H shares [2] - The upcoming economic work conference and the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan in 2026 are expected to result in an expansion of the fiscal deficit and more aggressive economic policies [2] - The anticipated interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December and the stable appreciation of the RMB will create favorable conditions for monetary easing in China at the beginning of 2026 [2] Group 3: Gold Market - The geopolitical turmoil is increasing uncertainty, which enhances gold's resilience and safe-haven attributes, leading to a recommendation for an overweight in gold [4] - Continuous gold purchases by central banks support the long-term price stability of gold, despite fluctuations driven by speculative trading [4] - The Trump administration's policies are perceived to undermine U.S. international credibility, further bolstering gold's appeal [4] Group 4: Crude Oil Market - Short-term volatility in the crude oil market is expected to increase, leading to a recommendation for an underweight in crude oil [5] - Investor expectations regarding crude oil supply and demand are relatively aligned, with OPEC+ maintaining moderate production adjustments [5] - Geopolitical events in South America may increase U.S. influence on global oil prices, while the Trump administration's policies are inclined towards lower oil prices, suggesting continued pressure on crude oil prices [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article suggests a tactical overweight in A/H shares, US stocks, and gold, while recommending an underweight in US Treasuries and crude oil due to geopolitical tensions and economic conditions [1][2]. Group 1: A/H Shares and US Stocks - Multiple factors support the performance of Chinese equities, with a recommendation to overweight A/H shares. The upcoming economic work conference and the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan in 2026 are expected to lead to an expansion of the fiscal deficit and more aggressive economic policies [1]. - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to lower interest rates in December, and the stability and appreciation of the RMB will provide favorable conditions for monetary easing in early 2026. Reforms are expected to boost market risk appetite in China [1]. - Chinese equities offer a higher risk-return profile compared to other major asset classes [1]. Group 2: US Treasuries - The uncertainty surrounding the new Federal Reserve chairperson is increasing market speculation regarding US monetary policy, leading to a recommendation for an underweight in US Treasuries [1]. - The US labor market is cooling, and lower energy prices along with moderate wage growth are likely to reduce endogenous inflation, providing more room for the Fed to adjust monetary policy [1]. - The resilience of the US economy suggests that the Fed's monetary policy guidance may be relatively cautious, with US Treasury yields expected to decline moderately. However, the uncertainty regarding the new chairperson increases the risk-return ratio of Treasuries compared to risk assets [1]. Group 3: Gold - In the context of geopolitical upheaval, gold is recommended for overweight due to its strong resilience and safe-haven attributes. The rising uncertainty in global geopolitical situations and continued central bank purchases of gold support a long-term price floor for gold [2]. - Despite fluctuations driven by speculative trading, gold prices maintain strong resilience amid the Trump administration's hegemonic policies, which further undermine US international credibility [2]. Group 4: Crude Oil - Short-term volatility in crude oil is expected to increase, leading to a recommendation for an underweight in crude oil. Investor expectations regarding supply and demand for oil are relatively consistent, and OPEC+ has made moderate adjustments to production [2]. - Geopolitical events in South America may increase the US's influence on global oil prices, while the Trump administration's policies are inclined towards lower oil prices, suggesting continued pressure on crude oil prices [2].

Core Viewpoint - The criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, initiated by the U.S. Attorney's Office for the District of Columbia, is ostensibly focused on the renovation project of the Federal Reserve headquarters, but it suggests deeper political implications and conflicts of interest [1][3]. Investigation Details - The investigation aims to determine whether Powell lied to Congress regarding the scope of the renovation project, with the inquiry having been approved in November of the previous year [3]. - The prosecutor leading the investigation, Janine Pirro, is a close ally of former President Trump, raising questions about the political motivations behind the investigation, especially given the historical tensions between Trump and Powell [3][5]. Political Context - Powell's term is set to expire in May, and Trump has indicated plans to announce a successor in January, coinciding with the timing of the criminal investigation, which raises suspicions of a politically motivated attack [5]. - The investigation could undermine the perceived independence of the Federal Reserve, which has traditionally maintained a stance of political neutrality to ensure objective monetary policy [5][7]. Market Implications - The ongoing investigation has created uncertainty in market expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy, particularly concerning interest rate decisions [7]. - The political strife has now extended into the financial sector, potentially exacerbating instability in the already fragile global economy [7]. Future Outlook - The outcome of the investigation and the potential nomination of a new chairman by Trump in January will be critical to watch, as they may reveal more about the underlying political dynamics at play [7].

新华社纽约1月12日电 美国联邦储备委员会主席鲍威尔11日晚表示，美国联邦检察官已于9日向美联储 送达传票，威胁就他2025年6月在参议院银行委员会作证一事提起刑事诉讼，当时的证词涉及美联储办 公楼翻新项目。 针对联邦检察官正在展开的刑事调查，鲍威尔明确表示，不接受政治压力或恐吓，将继续履职。分析人 士指出，在白宫与美联储围绕货币政策龃龉不断的背景下，这一调查恐进一步侵蚀美联储的独立性，增 加货币政策走向的不确定性。 因不满美联储未能积极降息，美国总统特朗普多次要求鲍威尔辞职。鲍威尔将于2026年5月结束美联储 主席任期，但他的美联储理事任期要到2028年才结束。 有分析指出，若检方正式起诉，势必会给鲍威尔的履职带来不确定性。一旦美联储主席空缺，即便鲍威 尔继续担任美联储理事，美联储决策也可能出现混乱和真空。 美联储办公楼翻 新工作进行中 图IC ...