策 华福证券 2025 年 12 月 28 日 略 研 究 策 略 定 期 报 工业企业利润走弱不改制造业价格延续复苏—— 周观点 投资要点： 近期观点 1、 美联储扩表，美国商业银行调整资产结构。 2、 美国居民部门加杠杆迹象显现，但持续性存疑。 3、 中美算力芯片博弈是全球科技长期通缩的重要标志。 4、 美国 AI 泡沫一旦破灭，全球美元债务风险有望同步释放。 告 5、 关注美元可能阶段性走强所指引的风险信号，随后可能出现 美元美债美股三杀。 6、 中国市场有望在海外风险释放过程中进行风格上的长期大切 换，同时伴随人民币持续大幅升值。 7、 长期看好保险，央国企红利，反内卷行业，中概互联网，军 贸。 风险提示 全球制造业复苏受阻；中美关系改善不及预期；美国地产市场不 健康 团队成员 分析师： 李浩(S0210524050003) lh30530@hfzq.com.cn 分析师： 李刘魁(S0210524050006) llk30550@hfzq.com.cn 相关报告 1、医疗与消费周报——政策驱动与技术赋能下的 中国互联网医疗发展——2025.12.27 2、市场状态高频数据库——12 月第 3 周—— ...

每经AI快讯，甘肃能化（SZ 000552，收盘价：2.33元）12月16日晚间发布公告称，公司下属全资子公 司甘肃煤炭第一工程有限责任公司（以下简称"煤一公司"）联合天地科技股份有限公司中标甘肃能源庆 阳煤电有限责任公司（以下简称"庆阳煤电"）甘肃宁正矿区九龙川煤矿进风立井、2号回风立井筒冻结 及掘砌工程施工项目，工程总价约3.59亿元（含税）。 2025年1至6月份，甘肃能化的营业收入构成为：煤炭采选业占比56.76%，电力占比19.6%，建筑业占比 8.36%，化工行业占比7.64%，其他业务收入占比4.75%。 截至发稿，甘肃能化市值为125亿元。 每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——中标企业频频弃标 大型医疗设备采购有何难言之隐？ （记者 王晓波） 根据《深圳证券交易所股票上市规则》等相关规定，本次工程施工构成关联交易，不构成《上市公司重 大资产重组管理办法》规定的重大资产重组，需提交公司董事会审议，无须提交股东会审议。 2025年12月16日，公司召开第十一届董事会第七次会议，审议通过《关于下属煤一公司中标工程施工项 目暨关联交易的议案》，本议案为关联交易事项，根据规定，3名关联董事谢晓锋、陈勇、 ...

虽然两个月CPI重回正增长，但整体需求依旧偏弱。下一步有望实施更加积极的财政政策；充分利用美联储降息窗口 进一步降准降息，激发投资需求 文｜《财经》记者 孙颖妮 编辑｜王延春 工业生产者价格同比变动数据显示，11月，工业生产者出厂价格中，生产资料价格下降2.4%，影响工业生产者出厂价 格总水平下降约1.79个百分点。其中，采掘工业价格下降6.1%，原材料工业价格下降2.9%，加工工业价格下降1.9%。 12月10日，国家统计局发布数据，11月，全国居民消费价格指数（CPI）同比上涨0.7%，较上月（0.2%）回升0.5个百 分点。 11月，全国工业生产者出厂价格（PPI）同比下降2.2%，较上月（下降2.1%）回落0.1个百分点。 图表来源：国家统计局 对于CPI数据，招商证券宏观首席分析师张静静团队分析，一方面，北方产区寒潮、南方部分产区连续降雨等天气因 素导致蔬菜、鲜果市场供应偏紧，叠加运输及保鲜费用等系列成本增加，共同推动11月鲜菜、鲜果价格上涨，叠加 2024年同期低基数效应，导致11月价格同比大幅上涨。另一方面，市场猪肉终端需求跟进较为乏力，叠加市场生猪供 给持续增加，当月猪价同比跌幅依然较深，较上 ...

—2025 年 11 月通胀数据点评 频率：每月 ❑ 风险提示：国内政策效果不及预期。 点评报告 证券研究报告 | 宏观点评报告 2025 年 12 月 10 日 通胀回升趋势不改 相关报告 1、《新质生产力相关产品出口 增速表现强劲—2025 年 11 月进 出口数据点评》2025-12-09 2、《明年政策积极程度将有所 变化—中央政治局会议解读》 2025-12-08 3、《固定资产投资增速或仍偏 弱 — — 宏 观 经 济 预 测 报 告 （2025 年 11 月）》2025-12-06 张静静 S1090522050003 zhangjingjing@cmschina.com.cn 赵兴举 研究助理 zhaoxingju@cmschina.com.cn 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 ❑ CPI：11 月 CPI 环比-0.1%，同比+0.7%，CPI 同比大幅上涨主要由食品项贡 献，对 CPI 同比的影响由上月-0.54%转为+0.04%。结构上来看，1）寒潮、 降雨等天气因素导致蔬菜、鲜果市场供应偏紧，叠加运输及保鲜费用等系列成 本增加，共同推动 11 月鲜菜、鲜果价格上涨，叠加去年低基数因素，价格同 ...

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding market sentiment and style switching signals to identify investment opportunities [1] - It highlights the current market condition of index consolidation with reduced trading volume as the year-end approaches [1] - The article raises questions about the sustainability of investment opportunities in the anti-flu concept and the coal sector, particularly in the context of winter heating demand [1]

国内商品期货收盘，互有涨跌。BR橡胶涨约4%，沪银、纸浆等涨逾2%，焦煤、纯碱等涨逾1%，甲 醇、短纤等小幅上涨；沥青、铂等跌超2%，液化气、鸡蛋等跌超1%，PP、氧化铝等小幅下跌。 文 | 张阳阳 12月2日，A股三大指数集体下跌，截至收盘，上证指数跌0.42%，深证成指跌0.68%，创业板指跌 0.69%；北证50跌0.76%。沪深两市成交额约15934.3亿元，较前一个交易日缩量约2805.08亿元。全市场 1544只股票上涨、3740只股票下跌，其中54只涨停、7只跌停。 板块方面，福建国资、林业、预制菜，煤炭采选、机场、轻工制造等行业以及概念涨幅居前；有色· 锑、MLCC、锂矿、能源金属、贵金属、生物制品等行业以及概念跌幅居前。 上涨个股中，山西板块有2只个股涨幅在5%以上，其中安泰集团为领涨股，且于上午10时15分许触及涨 停板，最终涨幅达到9.96%；太钢不锈涨幅达到7.06%。 除安泰集团和太钢不锈，山西板块还有3只个股涨幅在1%以上，其中华阳股份涨幅为3.57%，锦波生物 涨幅为2.42%，永泰能源涨幅为1.23%。 下跌个股中，东杰智能为领跌股，较前一交易日下跌3.62%。此外，第二至第五 ...

Market Overview - On November 18, the three major A-share indices collectively declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.81%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.92%, and the ChiNext Index down 1.16%. The North Stock 50 fell by 2.92% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was approximately 1,926.068 billion yuan, an increase of about 15.277 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - A total of 1,278 stocks rose while 4,106 stocks fell, with 62 stocks hitting the daily limit up and 36 stocks hitting the daily limit down [1] Sector Performance - Sectors that performed well included large model beans, Kuaishou, Xiaohongshu, cultural media, publishing, and computer industries [1] - Sectors that saw declines included coal, Fujian state-owned assets, forestry, coal mining, steel, and precious metals [1] Regional Performance - The Shanxi region showed weak overall performance on November 18, with an index decline of 2.8%, but trading volume increased to 16.535 billion yuan, higher than the average of 15.251 billion yuan over the past five days [1] - In the Shanxi region, only 2 stocks showed an upward trend, with Kexin Development up 1.85% and Cross-Border Communication up 0.82% [1] Individual Stock Performance - In the Shanxi region, 6 stocks experienced declines of over 5%, with China New Energy leading the drop at 9.60%, followed by Antai Group at 9.58%, Shanxi Coking Coal at 6.32%, Lu Hua Technology at 5.65%, Lu'an Environmental Energy at 5.60%, and Jinkong Coal at 5.23% [1] - Antai Group had previously seen a significant increase, with a cumulative rise of over 50%, reaching 57.50%, but reversed its trend on the 18th, nearing the daily limit down [2]

Core Viewpoints - The inflation rebound in October is primarily driven by factors other than the anti-involution effect, with significant contributions from commodity price increases [2][60] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 0.2% year-on-year, up from -0.3% in the previous month, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.1% year-on-year, showing a slight improvement from -2.3% [9][59] Group 1: Factors Influencing Inflation - Factor 1: The anti-involution effect led to an increase in coal prices, but its impact on downstream PPI was limited. In contrast, copper prices, which were less affected by anti-involution, saw a significant increase, contributing 0.2% to the PPI [2][10][60] - Factor 2: The CPI's rise above zero was attributed to a low base and reduced supply in certain food categories, with pork prices remaining low despite the anti-involution effect. The food CPI increased by 1.5 percentage points to -2.9% year-on-year [2][17][61] - Factor 3: Core CPI continued to rise, supported by improved travel demand and rising gold prices. The core CPI increased to 1.2% year-on-year, with significant price increases in accommodation and travel services due to the overlapping National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival [3][24][61] Group 2: Future Outlook - The price increases in bulk commodities are expected to continue influencing inflation, but the impact of anti-involution on downstream prices may take time to materialize. The PPI is projected to remain around -2.2% year-on-year in the fourth quarter [4][37][62] - Although the low base, steady improvement in service consumption demand, and high gold prices may support core CPI, the limited rebound in CPI for the year is anticipated due to the tapering of national subsidies and slow recovery in downstream PPI [4][37][62] Group 3: Regular Tracking - The CPI showed an overall increase, with contributions from both food and non-food items. The food CPI rose by 1.5 percentage points to -2.9% year-on-year, with significant increases in fresh vegetables and fruits [5][43][63] - Non-food items such as household appliances and communication tools saw a decline in CPI, with household appliances dropping to 5.0% and communication tools to 1.2% [5][48][63] - The overall service CPI increased, with core service CPI performing better than seasonal trends, rising to 0.8% year-on-year [7][52][63]

证券代码：600157 证券简称：永泰能源 公告编号：临 2025－054 永泰能源集团股份有限公司 2025年第三季度主要经营数据公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 根据上海证券交易所《上市公司自律监管指引第 3 号——行业信息披露》的 相关规定和要求，为方便投资者了解公司生产经营情况，现将公司 2025 年第三 季度主要经营数据公告如下： 1 项 目 发电量（亿千瓦时） 上网电量（亿千瓦时） 2025 年 第 3 季度 同比 增减（%） 2025 年 1－3 季度 同比 增减 （%） 2025 年 第 3 季度 同比 增减 （%） 2025 年 1－3 季度 同比 增减 （%） 一、河南省 61.7630 22.05 135.8017 2.87 58.3991 22.40 127.8122 2.97 1．燃煤： 61.6560 22.10 135.5132 2.88 58.2948 22.46 127.5314 2.98 郑州裕中能源有限 责任公司 41.3910 24.34 93.1510 3.8 ...

Group 1: Profit and Revenue Trends - From January to September 2025, the cumulative profit of national industrial enterprises increased by 3.2% year-on-year, up from 0.9% previously[2] - In September, the monthly revenue of industrial enterprises improved by approximately 3.1% year-on-year, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from the previous value[3] - The profit growth rate for September rose by 1.2 percentage points to 21.6%, marking two consecutive months of high growth[3] Group 2: Profit Structure and Contributions - The contributions to September's profit growth were +7.0% from industrial value added, -2.6% from PPI, and +15.2% from profit margin year-on-year[3] - In September, the cost, expenses, investment income, and profit per 100 yuan of revenue were 85.4, 8.3, -0.8, and 5.5 yuan respectively, with significant contributions from reduced expenses[3] - The profit margin structure showed a notable decrease in expense rates, contributing positively to overall profitability[12] Group 3: Inventory and Economic Outlook - In September, nominal inventory increased by 0.5 percentage points to 2.8%, indicating the first shift to replenishing inventory this year[5] - The report anticipates increased downward pressure on economic growth in Q4, despite recent fiscal policy measures aimed at boosting investment[5] - The ongoing improvement in the "anti-involution" industries has led to a more significant profit recovery compared to non-anti-involution sectors, with a 3.9 percentage point improvement in cumulative profit year-on-year for anti-involution industries[4]