Group 1: Asset Allocation Insights - The first principle of asset allocation is that all returns are compensation for risk [4] - Investors' funding goals determine the types and levels of risk exposure needed [5] - The purpose of allocation is to optimize the risk-adjusted returns of individual asset classes, focusing on the correlation between different assets [5][6] Group 2: Stock Selection Strategies - Understanding macro variables and overall asset structure can help gauge stock volatility not driven by fundamentals [6] - The gold-to-copper ratio can indicate economic cycles, with a declining ratio suggesting stagflation and an increasing ratio indicating recession [7] - The Merrill Lynch Clock illustrates that different economic growth and inflation levels correspond to optimal asset performance in various stages [10] Group 3: Investment Strategies for Cyclical Stocks - Three strategies for investing in cyclical stocks include speculative trading based on futures prices, top-down allocation considering demand expansion, and value trading focusing on low valuations of high-quality companies [10][11] - Key indicators for assessing demand expansion include capital expenditure ratios, PE and PB ratios, and observing macroeconomic leading indicators [11] Group 4: Views on Major Asset Classes - Short-term prospects for the US dollar show potential for a rebound due to interest rate cuts and fiscal stimulus, while long-term attractiveness may be diminished by rising credit risks [12] - The Chinese yuan faces short-term appreciation pressure due to improving growth momentum and foreign capital inflows, with long-term appreciation trends expected [12] - US Treasury yields are influenced by Fed policies, with long-term rates affected by economic conditions and rising deficits [13] - Oil prices are expected to fluctuate within a certain range, while gold serves as a good tool for hedging portfolio risks due to its low correlation with the dollar [13][14] - Copper demand is positively influenced by sectors like renewable energy and AI, positioning it favorably among cyclical commodities [14]

谢治宇先生发表主题演讲 全文摘录如下，与你分享： 大家好，非常欢迎大家来参加此次研讨会。今天我演讲的题目叫做权益投资眼中的大类资产，其实我们 的专业是研究股票投资这个"小类资产"，所以今天我们仅仅从权益投资视角出发来谈大类资产。 专题："投资·向善"——复旦管院·兴动ESG大讲堂暨高校基金会慈善资产管理研讨会 2025年9月22日，兴证全球基金、兴银理财、复旦大学管理学院携手举办的"投资·向善"复旦管院·兴动 ESG大讲堂暨高校基金会慈善资产管理研讨会圆满落幕。兴证全球基金副总经理谢治宇先生发表主题演 讲《权益投资眼中的大类资产》。 兴证全球基金副总经理 大类资产的第一性原理：收益都是对承担风险的补偿 对于大类资产的分类，大家应该还是比较熟悉。按市场划分，简单来看，它包括外汇、国债、股票、商 品等。如果用资产来分，它包括了债券、原油、黄金、房地产等等。 如果我们讨论大类资产配置的基本思路，我们需要回到最开始的第一性原理——所有收益都是对我们承 担风险的补偿。沿着这样的思路，我们就应该从三个基本的环节来配置。 首先，我们的资金目标决定了我们需要暴露的风险种类和风险程度。这与大家的思维大概率是符合的， 比如保守稳 ...