·市场噪音扰动：上周市场出现两类扰动铜基本面的噪音：一是英伟达下调AI用铜量，二是美国暂缓对关键矿产加 税，给铜的基本面带来一定压力，是近期铜价相较其他品种偏弱的诱因之一。 ·跨市价差异常：近期COMEX与LME铜价走势分化，近端价差异常进一步压制铜价。 COMEX端因2026年1月8日美国宣布暂缓对关键矿产加征关税，铜价支撑减弱；LME端出现明显挤仓行为，近端 TOMORROW和NEXT合约价差 ·市场噪音扰动：上周市场出现两类扰动铜基本面的噪音：一是英伟达下调AI用铜量，二是美国暂缓对关键矿产加 税，给铜的基本面带来一定压力，是近期铜价相较其他品种偏弱的诱因之一。 智利北部Capstone铜金矿于1月2号宣布工人罢工，当时产能缩减至30%左右，持续3周的罢工中工人扰乱海水淡化 电力系统，导致选矿厂供应受限，上周已完全暂停选矿作业，该矿山2026年铜产量预估10.6万吨。 当前全球铜矿生产干扰率处于5%-6%区间，利润向资本开支及供应传导不畅。 春节前铜价或将偏横盘运行，跑输锌、铝等其他有色品种，但回调幅度有限；铜价回调后长期仍偏利多，长期持 有多头头寸的盈亏比相对乐观。 ·金铜比与经济预期：从全球经济视角 ...

天风有色金属 | 铜：棋至中局，稳定性凸显 1、近期铜价偏弱原因分析 ·市场噪音扰动：上周市场出现两类扰动铜基本面的噪音：一是英伟达下调AI用铜量，二是美国暂缓对关键矿产加 税，给铜的基本面带来一定压力，是近期铜价相较其他品种偏弱的诱因之一。 ·跨市价差异常：近期COMEX与LME铜价走势分化，近端价差异常进一步压制铜价。 COMEX端因2026年1月8日美国宣布暂缓对关键矿 天风有色金属 | 铜：棋至中局，稳定性凸显 1、近期铜价偏弱原因分析 ·市场噪音扰动：上周市场出现两类扰动铜基本面的噪音：一是英伟达下调AI用铜量，二是美国暂缓对关键矿产加 税，给铜的基本面带来一定压力，是近期铜价相较其他品种偏弱的诱因之一。 ·跨市价差异常：近期COMEX与LME铜价走势分化，近端价差异常进一步压制铜价。 COMEX端因2026年1月8日美国宣布暂缓对关键矿产加征关税，铜价支撑减弱；LME端出现明显挤仓行为，近端 TOMORROW和NEXT合约价差飙升至100美金，单日最大涨幅达60美金，创下1998年以来最高纪录，二者走势分 化使近端价差转为负值。 同时，北美地区2万吨隐性库存因价格高位被贸易商重新交至M1，北美新奥 ...

判断2026年行情，关键看美元在90关口能否守住，而这与美国的AI算力霸权息息相关。若算力霸权故 事崩塌，对铜的需求将更多，数据中心、电网升级等都需要铜。所以2026年，铜向上的动力可能比黄金 和白银更高，毕竟黄金已喊出5400美元的目标价。 如今，各国央行和企业都在行动，央行一波波买入黄金，企业将压箱底资产换成铜，这意味着即便未来 避险情绪消退，贵金属也不会轻易下跌，因为工业生产离不开它们，真实需求就是最稳的安全垫。普通 人买入贵金属，不是盲目跟风，而是押注未来AI工业的刚需趋势。 其一，自2022年俄乌冲突爆发，世界突然意识到美元、美债这类硬核资产并非绝对安全。在此背景下， 大家纷纷寻找替代美元美债的安全避风港，黄金自然成为首选。其二，近一两年，尤其是2025年"懂 王"挥舞关税大棒，让全球意识到基于美元的金融、结算、信用体系可能被拆解。于是，大家又将目光 投向黄金。而且，黄金上涨背后有"金银比"这一不变定律，当金银比达到80甚至100以上时，很容易诱 发白银上涨，最高峰时金银比确实超过100，这为白银上涨提供了底层逻辑。 说完金银，再聊聊铜。铜上涨，一方面是因为存在"金铜比"等逻辑，以美元计价的全球资源 ...

展望后市，高盛指出，相较黄金，预计白银交易将持续面临高波动性和不确定性。白银没有全球央行储 备带来的需求端支撑，所以价格会对市场资金的流动更加敏感。预测白银价格会继续走高，但波动性和 不确定性显著高于黄金。 1月12日，贵金属价格持续上涨。 截止发稿，据同花顺iFinD数据，现货白银日内涨超3%，突破82美元/盎司关口。现货黄金日内涨超 1%，突破4560美元/盎司。 1月11日，在2026中国首席经济学家论坛年会上，莲华资产合伙人、首席投资官洪灏分享其对黄金和白 银的观点时指出，白银价格远未触及顶部，80美元并非终点。若黄金维持4500美元的公允价格，结合金 银比、金铜比、金油比等指标仍处于历史低位的现状，其他有色金属的上涨空间值得期待。从通胀调整 角度看，白银的名义价格与实际价格均突破历史趋势创下新高，而"新高是用来买的"，这为投资提供了 重要参考。 ...

欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 文 | 交易理想国知识星球 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 看看现在的白银租赁利率曲线，似乎也在暗示着什么：年底前的短期利率很低，但跨年到明年初的利率却明显升高。这说明市场预期，明 年初的现货可能会非常紧张。10月之后，伦敦仓库的白银库存确实增加了2600吨，但这些很多是从纽约、上海"搬"过去的。明年1月，伦敦 多出来的这2600吨，够不够应对可能的集中归还需求？这出"现货逼仓"的大戏，会不会在伦敦再次上演？这无疑是开年最大的看点。 价格疯涨，背后是比价逻辑的全面重构 白银涨这么猛，一个直观的表现就是"金银比"大幅下滑。今年4月，金银比还处在104的高位（意思是一盎司黄金能换约105盎司白银），如 今已经跌到了64附近。这回归速度，堪比坐过山车。 本周（2025年12月22日--12月26日）交易理想国知识星球共发布37条内容，以下是筛选出的本周精华内容片段摘要，完整版内容可扫码查看。 白银：逼仓传闻与疯狂溢价的真相 开 年大戏：伦敦会不会上演"现货逼仓"第二季？ 经历了疯狂的12月，大家自然把目光投向了明年1月。明年1月，白银的主战场可能不在纽约，而在伦敦。 今年白银市场 ...

白银的库存在消失。 我说的不是缓慢减少，而是"蒸发"。 就在前不久，华尔街传来一个惊人的消息：如果想在纽约金属交易所买断所有能被立即交割的现 货白银，可能只需要12亿美元。 这笔钱，在金融巨鳄眼里，或许只是一笔"小钱"。 正是这个看似不起眼的数字，成了点燃白银狂飙的导火索。 当一个市场 的库存薄得像一层纸，任何一点火星，都可能引发一场大火。 2025年12月22日，伦敦银价冲破了每盎司68美元。 这个数字，在几年前听起来像是天方夜谭，如今却成了现实。 仅仅这一年，白银的价格就从地平线起 飞，涨幅超过了130%，把黄金、石油等一众老牌资产远远甩在了身后。 人们开始重新打量这个常年被黄金光芒掩盖的"穷亲戚"。 为什么是白银？ 故事得从另一个比值说起，金银比。 简单说，就是用一盎司黄金的价格，能买多少盎司白银。 这个古老的比值，像钟摆一样，在历史长河 中来回摆动。 它的中轴线，通常在40到80之间。 当它高于100，往往是大动荡时期，黄金被疯抢，白银被冷落；当它低于30，则可能是白银过热的时候。 2025年4月，这个钟摆甩向了一个极端高位：104.87。 那时，一盎司黄金能换将近105盎司白银。 触发点是一场席卷全 ...

Group 1: Silver Price Dynamics - Silver prices have reached a historic high in December 2025, driven by both industrial and financial demand[1] - Industrial silver usage exceeded 60% in 2025, with significant demand from sectors like data centers and renewable energy[1] - A short-term trigger for the price surge was the physical delivery of 60% of registered inventory (approximately 47.6 million ounces) at the New York COMEX, with registered inventory down over 70% from its 2020 peak[1] Group 2: Market Trends and Asset Performance - For the week of December 6 to December 13, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.08%, while the S&P 500 dropped by 0.63%[2] - The gold-silver ratio decreased to 67.39, down 5.64 from the previous week, indicating a relative strengthening of silver[2] - In commodity markets, London silver prices rose by 11.03%, reflecting strong demand dynamics[2] Group 3: Inventory and Fund Behavior - Recent oil inventory levels reached 44,355 million tons, an increase of 2.78 million tons from the previous week[3] - The latest data shows a rise in dollar long positions to 16,893 contracts, up by 889 contracts, while short positions increased to 33,001 contracts[3] - The gold ETF scale rose to 3,385 million ounces, reflecting a 90,000-ounce increase week-over-week[3] Group 4: Risks and Future Outlook - The ongoing global monetary easing cycle is expected to lower holding costs and strengthen demand for silver as a safe-haven asset[1] - Potential risks include the overextension of Federal Reserve easing expectations and technological breakthroughs in "de-silverization" that could disrupt market dynamics[1]

Core Viewpoint - The article suggests that after missing the significant price increases in gold and silver, copper presents a compelling investment opportunity, potentially serving as a "Plan B" for investors [2][14]. Group 1: Market Performance - Gold and silver have seen remarkable price increases this year, with gold rising from $1800 to $4300 and silver from $20 to $53, while copper's performance has been relatively subdued [2][3]. - Historical data shows that during previous commodity supercycles, copper prices have experienced substantial increases, such as a rise from $3000 to nearly $10000 between 2006 and 2008, and from $4500 to $10700 during the pandemic, indicating copper's potential for significant price appreciation [5]. Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - Copper is essential for various industries, including electric vehicles, renewable energy, and AI data centers, with the demand for copper expected to surge due to the ongoing energy transition [9][12]. - The supply of copper is constrained, with the average grade of copper ore from the top ten mines decreasing from 1.2% in 2000 to 0.6% currently, and stricter environmental regulations in major copper-producing countries complicating new mining approvals [13]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The "gold to copper ratio" has historical significance, with the ratio currently at 5.5, suggesting potential for copper price increases as seen in past trends [12]. - Investors are advised to adopt a cautious approach by gradually entering positions in copper-related investments, such as copper ETFs or stocks of well-known copper mining companies, while being prepared for a longer investment horizon [14].

Group 1: Gold Prices - The price of gold from various brands is reported, with most brands offering a price around 1279 CNY per gram, while some brands like Chow Sang Sang and Lao Feng Xiang are slightly higher at 1281 CNY and 1280 CNY respectively [1][3][8] - Investment gold bars are priced lower, with prices ranging from 976 CNY to 1254 CNY per gram depending on the supplier [10][11] - The price of 3D hard gold and other specific gold products varies, with prices around 1175 CNY to 1215 CNY per gram [2][3] Group 2: Precious Metal Prices - Platinum prices are reported at around 459 CNY to 687 CNY per gram across different suppliers [3][9] - Silver prices are noted to be between 7.43 CNY to 12.33 CNY per gram, depending on the supplier [4][5][6] - K-gold prices vary significantly, with 9K gold at 370 CNY, 14K gold at 578 CNY, and 18K gold at 741 CNY per gram [7] Group 3: Market Trends - The gold market in 2024 is described as "crazy," with international gold prices surpassing historical highs adjusted for inflation, indicating a significant shift in market dynamics [14] - The gold-to-copper ratio has reached a historical high of 99.7%, reflecting investor concerns about the global economic outlook [14] - Despite high gold prices, the ratio of gold to the S&P 500 index suggests that gold's perceived value remains competitive compared to equities [15] Group 4: Central Bank Actions - Central banks, particularly in emerging markets, have been significant buyers of gold, with average annual purchases exceeding 1000 tons from 2022 to 2023, more than double the past decade's average [16] - Potential changes in central bank purchasing behavior could impact market psychology, as a slowdown in gold buying may be interpreted as a loss of confidence [16] - Historical precedents show that large-scale gold sales by central banks can lead to significant price declines, highlighting the importance of central bank actions in the gold market [16]

Core Insights - Global equity markets faced overall pressure, with significant performance divergence, particularly in Asia where Japanese and Korean markets excelled [1][2] - Precious metals, especially gold and silver, reached new highs, while oil prices declined [1][4] - The bond market showed a "bull steep" trend in China, while US bonds exhibited a "bull flat" trend, indicating differing yield curve behaviors [3] Group 1: Equity Market Performance - The MSCI global index fell by 1.3%, with developed markets underperforming compared to emerging markets, particularly in Asia [2] - The Nikkei 225 index surged by 7.0%, reaching a new high, driven by a weaker yen and optimistic policy expectations [2] - A-shares experienced a slight decline, with the Wande All A index down by 0.4%, while the KOSPI and KOSDAQ in South Korea rose by 5.4% and 2.1%, respectively [2] Group 2: Commodity and Currency Trends - The COMEX silver and gold prices increased significantly, with silver up over 60% and gold over 50% year-to-date [1][4] - The South China commodity index and CRB commodity index rose by 0.2% and 2.0%, respectively, with most major commodities showing gains except for WTI and Brent crude [4] - The US dollar index increased by 1%, while the Japanese yen depreciated by 2.2% against the dollar [4] Group 3: Bond Market Dynamics - In China, the yield curve showed a downward trend overall, with the long end (20-30 years) rising, indicating a "bull steep" characteristic [3] - The US bond market also saw a downward shift in the yield curve, with a narrowing 10Y-2Y spread, reflecting a "bull flat" trend [3] - As of October 12, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October rose to 98.3%, with expectations for two rate cuts within the year [3]