Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - Japan's government bond liquidity has deteriorated beyond the levels seen during the 2008 financial crisis, with the Bloomberg Japan government bond liquidity index surpassing the post-Lehman Brothers bankruptcy levels[2] - The relative performance of U.S. cyclical stocks versus defensive stocks is closely tied to forward swap rates linked to interest rates, indicating market optimism about sustained high rates despite expectations of Fed rate cuts[5] - The relative performance of MSCI Japan bank stocks is highly correlated with the 10-year Japanese government bond yield, benefiting from rising inflation expectations in Japan[5] Group 2: Investment Trends - Global fund managers have increased their allocation to technology stocks, reaching the highest level since March 2009, while reducing positions in cash and consumer staples[6] - Emerging market sovereign debt and U.S. Treasury yield spreads have narrowed to a 15-year low, reducing the attractiveness of emerging market debt strategies[6] - The relative performance of European consumer staples has diverged from the gold-to-copper ratio since 2024, indicating a weakening relationship with macroeconomic conditions[7] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The relative P/E ratios of U.S. and European stock indices are closely linked to the uncertainty of economic policies, with European valuations rising as U.S. policy uncertainty increases[9] - China's 5-year and 1-year interest rate swap spread turned positive in July 2025, reflecting increased investor confidence in inflation due to domestic policies and infrastructure projects[8] - The South African stock index has risen approximately 19% since 2025, driven by increasing gold and platinum prices, outperforming other emerging market indices[13] Group 4: Sentiment and Risk - The SPDR U.S. Dollar ETF's call option volume has been declining, suggesting limited upward momentum for the dollar index in the near future[13] - A significant portion of fund managers (38%) view global trade conflicts as the biggest tail risk, with "shorting the U.S. dollar" identified as the most crowded trade[6]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The positive macro - expectations brought by anti - involution have pushed up short - term copper prices [3]. 3. Key Points by Category 3.1 Price and Volatility - The latest copper price is 79,700 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 10.13%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 14.3% [2]. - In the copper futures market, the latest prices of沪铜主力,沪铜连一,沪铜连三, and伦铜3M are 79,700 yuan/ton, 79,770 yuan/ton, 79,750 yuan/ton, and 9,794.5 dollars/ton respectively, with daily increases of 1,290 yuan, 1,330 yuan, 1,390 yuan, and 116.5 dollars, and daily increase rates of 1.65%, 1.7%, 1.77%, and 1.2% respectively. The沪伦比is 8.15, with a daily decrease of 0.03 and a daily decrease rate of 0.37% [8]. 3.2 Risk Management Suggestions - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory and concerns about price drops, it is recommended to sell 75% of沪铜主力期货 contracts at around 82,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of CU2509C82000 call options when volatility is relatively stable [2]. - For raw material management with low raw material inventory and concerns about price increases, it is recommended to buy 75% of沪铜主力期货 contracts at around 75,000 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Factors Affecting Prices - **Likely Positive Factors**: Sino - US tariff policy easing, reduction in LME inventory levels, the US dollar index hovering at a low level, and anti - involution benefiting the entire non - ferrous metal sector [4]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Tariff policy fluctuations, reduced global demand due to tariff policies, and the Fed maintaining high interest rates [5]. 3.4 Market Outlook - Copper prices showed a downward - breaking trend before July 17th. However, the strong US retail data on July 17th and positive tariff expectations on July 18th boosted copper prices. The decline in the gold - copper ratio also indicated a change in investors' risk preferences. In the next week, copper prices may continue the strong trend of the last two trading days of last week, showing a slight upward trend. The US tariff policies with Indonesia and Japan are also beneficial to demand. The durable goods orders data on July 25th is worth attention [6]. 3.5 Spot Data - The latest prices of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper, Shanghai Wumaom, Guangdong Nanchu, and Yangtze Non - ferrous are 78,660 yuan/ton, 78,635 yuan/ton, 78,540 yuan/ton, and 79,760 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 640 yuan, 620 yuan, 550 yuan, and 1,050 yuan, and daily increase rates of 0.82%, 0.79%, 0.71%, and 1.33% respectively. The升贴水of Shanghai Non - ferrous, Shanghai Wumaom, Guangdong Nanchu, and Yangtze Non - ferrous are 220 yuan/ton, 115 yuan/ton, 60 yuan/ton, and 125 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 45 yuan, 30 yuan, 5 yuan, and 20 yuan, and daily increase rates of 25.71%, 35.29%, 9.09%, and 19.05% respectively [11]. 3.6 Scrap - to - Refined Copper Spread - The current scrap - to - refined copper spread (tax - included) is 1,478.51 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 513.08 yuan and a daily increase rate of 53.15%. The reasonable scrap - to - refined copper spread (tax - included) is 1,496.7 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 10.45 yuan and a daily increase rate of 0.7%. The price advantage (tax - included) is - 18.19 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 502.63 yuan and a daily decrease rate of 96.51%. Similar data is also provided for the non - tax - included situation [14]. 3.7 Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Data - **SHFE Warehouse Receipts**: The total沪铜仓单is 38,239 tons, with a daily decrease of 3,900 tons and a daily decrease rate of 9.26%. The total international copper warehouse receipt is 4,667 tons, with a daily decrease of 2,708 tons and a daily decrease rate of 36.72% [17]. - **LME Inventory**: The total LME copper inventory is 122,075 tons, with a daily decrease of 100 tons and a daily decrease rate of 0.08%. The registered LME copper warehouse receipt is 108,100 tons, with a daily decrease of 2,850 tons and a daily decrease rate of 2.57%. The cancelled LME copper warehouse receipt is 14,075 tons, with a daily increase of 2,875 tons and a daily increase rate of 25.67% [19]. - **COMEX Inventory**: The total COMEX copper inventory is 242,837 tons, with a weekly increase of 8,633 tons and a weekly increase rate of 3.69%. The registered COMEX copper warehouse receipt is 107,368 tons, with a weekly increase of 4,944 tons and a weekly increase rate of 0.76%. The cancelled COMEX copper warehouse receipt is 135,469 tons, with a weekly increase of 217 tons and a weekly increase rate of 0.16% [22][23]. 3.8 Import and Processing Data - The copper import profit and loss is - 127.28 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 16.74 yuan and a daily decrease rate of 11.62%. The copper concentrate TC is - 43.17 dollars/ton, with no daily change [23].

Group 1 - The metal market has shown significant divergence since the beginning of 2025, with gold rising due to a weaker dollar and increased risk aversion, while silver has recently shown signs of catching up. Prices of copper and aluminum remain resilient, whereas domestic-priced new energy products and the black metal sector have seen declines exceeding 10% [3][18]. - The gold-to-copper ratio is a crucial indicator of the relative value between gold and copper, reflecting changes in global economic cycles, inflation expectations, and risk appetite. Historically, this ratio surged during the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic, indicating that gold acts as a safe-haven asset while copper represents risk assets [5][18]. - The gold-to-silver ratio, currently above 90, indicates that silver is still undervalued relative to gold. This ratio reflects market risk appetite, economic cycle positioning, and inflation expectations [6][7][19]. Group 2 - Since 2021, the annual average price of copper has continued to rise, maintaining above 77,000 yuan per ton in 2025. The relatively low inventory levels of copper and aluminum indicate a strong fundamental backdrop for non-ferrous metals, contributing to price resilience [9][19]. - The current supply-demand structure of non-ferrous products differs from that of 2018, with recent years showing lower inventory levels, which supports the overall strength of the non-ferrous sector [13].

Group 1 - The metal market has shown significant divergence since the beginning of 2025, with gold rising due to a weaker dollar and risk aversion, while silver has recently shown a rebound, and copper and aluminum prices remain resilient. In contrast, domestically priced new energy products and the black metal sector have seen a decline of over 10% [5][19]. - The gold-to-copper ratio is a crucial indicator of the relative value between gold and copper, reflecting changes in global economic cycles, inflation expectations, and risk appetite. Gold is viewed as a safe-haven asset, while copper represents risk assets, serving as a barometer for global economic conditions [7][19]. - Historical trends show that during the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic, the gold-to-copper ratio surged due to falling copper prices and stable gold prices. When inflation rises and market risk appetite increases, the ratio tends to decrease, as seen in 2021 during economic recovery [20][21]. Group 2 - Since 2021, the annual average price of copper has continued to rise, maintaining above 77,000 yuan per ton in 2025, indicating a strong fundamental backdrop for non-ferrous metals. The relatively low inventory levels of copper and aluminum reflect this strength, contributing to price resilience [22]. - The current gold-to-silver ratio exceeds 90, suggesting that silver remains undervalued relative to gold, indicating potential investment opportunities in silver [3][21].