证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2026 03 01 年 月 日 钢铁 开门红 行情回顾（2.24-2.27）： 中信钢铁指数报收 2,256.59 点，上涨 11.8%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 10.72pct， 位列 30 个中信一级板块涨跌幅榜第 1 位。 重点领域分析： 投资策略：本周股票市场表现良好，中国工业化成熟期后的牛市正在徐徐 展开。贵金属前期阶段性大幅波动后重新步入上行轨道，同时地缘政治摩 擦加剧后贵金属避险属性被激发，短期进一步助推其价格上行速度。我们 预计今年小金属与贵金属板块会是市场超额收益的主要方向。黑色金属板 块去年涨幅接近 30%，近期股票上涨速度加快，关注度上升。很多人喜欢 用基本面去解释周期股的上涨，其实这个方法对，也不对。在我们年度策 略报告《人间正道是沧桑》指出这个方法对的地方是能跟绝大多数人站在 一起，按照趋势投资的方法，别人也这么认为，也会有更多的资金进入。 比别人发现得早，买入的成本足够低，就占领了先机。这个方法不对的地 方是过于强调变化，并没有考虑估值问题。作为长久期资产，周期股的估 值需要跨越周期，而商品是短久期资产，两者资产定价方式是完全 ...

Group 1 - The fertilizer sector experienced a broad rally on February 11, with Jinzhengdai hitting the daily limit and closing up 10.19% at 2.27 yuan. Huatai approached the limit, closing at 9.97%, while companies like Yuegui, Huilong, and Yanhai also saw gains [1][5]. - Since January, the domestic urea spot market has seen a comprehensive increase, with mainstream production areas raising prices by 5-20 yuan per ton, providing support to the sector. As of February 11, the average market price of urea in Shandong was 1790 yuan per ton, up 3.77% from the beginning of the year [3][7]. - The release of the Central No. 1 Document on February 3, which focuses on agricultural modernization and rural revitalization, has increased attention on pesticides and fertilizers. Additionally, with the Spring Festival approaching, there is still demand for fertilizer in preparation for spring plowing, leading to increased downstream stocking and market activity [3][7]. Group 2 - Manufacturers are primarily maintaining prices, with smooth sales and a substantial backlog of orders. It is expected that urea prices will remain strong and fluctuate before the holiday [3][7]. - To assist investors in seizing opportunities in cyclical stocks, the company has introduced a cyclical stock selection method. Cyclical stocks are defined as publicly listed companies in raw material production, whose profits are influenced by fluctuations in raw material prices. Utilizing price data from the company can help identify buying signals for cyclical stocks ahead of quarterly and annual reports [4][8].

华夏基金翟宇航围绕周期股投资框架（自上而下找贝塔机会、聚焦供需边界变化与宏观优先），展望 2026 年资源 品市场呈现百花齐放态势，核心看好贵金属（黄金为首）、铜、铝等品种，其中黄金受益于美元信用动摇与央行 配置多元化，黄金股当前估值偏低且存在戴维斯双击机会，铜受供需紧平衡支撑有 25%-30% 上涨空间；2026 年 宏观经济外强内弱，国内 PPI 年中或三季度有望成本推动型转正，名义 GDP 企稳回升利好商品与上市公司盈利， 产品配置上周期 华夏基金翟宇航围绕周期股投资框架（自上而下找贝塔机会、聚焦供需边界变化与宏观优先），展望 2026 年资源 品市场呈现百花齐放态势，核心看好贵金属（黄金为首）、铜、铝等品种，其中黄金受益于美元信用动摇与央行 配置多元化，黄金股当前估值偏低且存在戴维斯双击机会，铜受供需紧平衡支撑有 25%-30% 上涨空间；2026 年 宏观经济外强内弱，国内 PPI 年中或三季度有望成本推动型转正，名义 GDP 企稳回升利好商品与上市公司盈利， 产品配置上周期类产品重仓贵金属，全市场产品以平衡配置 + 波动率管理为核心。 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a collective decline on January 13, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.37% [1] - The CSI 1000 ETF (159845) decreased by 1.65%, while other major indices such as the SSE 50 and CSI 300 also saw declines of 0.10% and 0.36% respectively [1] - Among the top 50 weighted stocks in the CSI 1000 ETF, notable gainers included Chunzhong Technology with an increase of 8.67%, and Zhongtung High-tech rising by 4.43% [3] Group 2 - The CSI 1000 ETF's major sectors showed varied performance, with the electronics sector down by 2.62% and the power equipment sector down by 1.54%, while the pharmaceutical and biological sector rose by 1.73% [3] - The CSI 1000 ETF saw a net inflow of 717 million yuan over the last five trading days and 1.999 billion yuan over the last ten days, indicating strong liquidity with a total scale of 56.154 billion yuan [3] - The December CPI in China was reported at 0.8% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, while the PPI showed a year-on-year decline of 1.9% but a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, suggesting a gradual easing of deflationary pressures [3] Group 3 - Tianfeng Securities noted that in the early stages of a bull market, funds tend to favor a few high-growth sectors, while later stages see a focus on main lines, making it harder for new funds to gain profits [4] - The CSI 1000 ETF closely tracks the CSI 1000 Index, which consists of 1,000 small-cap stocks that are liquid and excluded from the CSI 800 Index, reflecting the price performance of a segment of China's A-share market [4]

Group 1: Asset Allocation Insights - The first principle of asset allocation is that all returns are compensation for risk [4] - Investors' funding goals determine the types and levels of risk exposure needed [5] - The purpose of allocation is to optimize the risk-adjusted returns of individual asset classes, focusing on the correlation between different assets [5][6] Group 2: Stock Selection Strategies - Understanding macro variables and overall asset structure can help gauge stock volatility not driven by fundamentals [6] - The gold-to-copper ratio can indicate economic cycles, with a declining ratio suggesting stagflation and an increasing ratio indicating recession [7] - The Merrill Lynch Clock illustrates that different economic growth and inflation levels correspond to optimal asset performance in various stages [10] Group 3: Investment Strategies for Cyclical Stocks - Three strategies for investing in cyclical stocks include speculative trading based on futures prices, top-down allocation considering demand expansion, and value trading focusing on low valuations of high-quality companies [10][11] - Key indicators for assessing demand expansion include capital expenditure ratios, PE and PB ratios, and observing macroeconomic leading indicators [11] Group 4: Views on Major Asset Classes - Short-term prospects for the US dollar show potential for a rebound due to interest rate cuts and fiscal stimulus, while long-term attractiveness may be diminished by rising credit risks [12] - The Chinese yuan faces short-term appreciation pressure due to improving growth momentum and foreign capital inflows, with long-term appreciation trends expected [12] - US Treasury yields are influenced by Fed policies, with long-term rates affected by economic conditions and rising deficits [13] - Oil prices are expected to fluctuate within a certain range, while gold serves as a good tool for hedging portfolio risks due to its low correlation with the dollar [13][14] - Copper demand is positively influenced by sectors like renewable energy and AI, positioning it favorably among cyclical commodities [14]

Core Insights - The article highlights the impressive investment performance of Ye Yong, who transitioned from a financial journalist to a fund manager, achieving returns of 73.07% and 51.75% for his funds in the past year [1][3]. Investment Philosophy - Ye Yong's investment philosophy can be summarized as "good companies, low prices, and hold on," emphasizing a comprehensive evaluation of companies based on various indicators such as historical development, team composition, core technology, market competitiveness, and financial data [8]. - He believes in the importance of not only holding quality stocks during market volatility but also having the courage to increase positions [8]. Market Approach - Ye Yong emphasizes the need to align with macro and industry cycles, focusing on market style, industry beta, and then individual stock alpha [10]. - He identifies three key investment areas based on macro cycle judgments: industrial metals (like copper and aluminum), traditional cyclical leaders in sectors such as chemicals and steel, and post-cycle sectors like food and real estate [12][13][15][17]. Investment Timing and Indicators - Ye Yong advises investors to pay attention to leading indicators such as PPI, inventory cycles, and credit pulses to identify cycle positions [19]. - He provides specific buy and sell signals, including futures price structures and significant quarterly gross margin improvements for leading companies [19]. Recovery Sequence - Different cyclical industries recover in varying sequences, with chemicals and cement leading, followed by semiconductor materials, and finally consumer-related sectors like automotive and aviation [21]. Long-term Perspective - Ye Yong advocates for a long-term investment approach, suggesting that investors may need to hold cyclical stocks for 3 to 5 years to realize substantial returns [23]. - He emphasizes the importance of strong cash flow and the ability of companies to survive downturns, ensuring they can rebound when the economy improves [24]. Conclusion - Ye Yong's diverse career background contributes to his unique perspective on cyclical investments, demonstrating that understanding macroeconomic trends and maintaining patience are crucial for long-term success in investing [28].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - Focus on the cyclical industries within the Chinese market, particularly in sectors such as new consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, AI, smart driving, and infrastructure [1][3][8] Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Investment Strategy**: The report aims to identify high-probability cyclical companies through a systematic top-down stock selection approach, especially in a market where investor attention is fragmented [1][3][8] 2. **Supply and Demand Dynamics**: The basic logic for cyclical stocks is driven by supply-demand differences that enhance profit margins. The optimal strategy is to find demand increments within businesses that have favorable supply attributes [1][3][24] 3. **Cyclical Industry Trends**: The transition of Chinese assets from growth to cyclical focus is evident, with a shift in market attention from revenue growth to profit margins. Profit margin fluctuations are becoming the core driver of returns [3][10][14] 4. **Historical Performance Analysis**: From 2010 to 2024, companies with over 300% growth saw a 3.9 times increase in total market value, with net profit margins increasing by 1.4 times, indicating the importance of profit margins in driving returns [3][10][12] 5. **Cyclical Opportunities**: The proportion of cyclical investment opportunities has significantly increased over the past five years, with cyclical and manufacturing sectors' market value share rising from 19% (2010-2014) to 57% (2020-2024) [3][10] 6. **Supply Constraints**: Identified three criteria for good cyclical businesses: policy restrictions on supply, slow capacity expansion, and favorable competitive landscape (oligopoly) [2][4][34] 7. **Valuation Metrics**: The price-to-sales (PS) ratio is deemed the most suitable metric for left-side contrarian positioning in cyclical industries, with left-side configurations showing significantly better risk-reward ratios than right-side [4][10] 8. **Market Dynamics**: The report anticipates that the current anti-involution and infrastructure expansion policies will reshape the supply attributes of many cyclical industries, potentially leading to more supply-constrained varieties in the next 3-5 years [4][10] 9. **Performance of Selected Stocks**: A constructed portfolio based on the outlined criteria has shown a cumulative increase of 391% from 2018 to July 2025, outperforming the equal-weighted cyclical 30 and the CSI 300 indices [4][10] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Risk Factors**: Potential risks include escalating tensions in technology, trade, and finance between China and the U.S., domestic policy effectiveness, macroeconomic liquidity tightening, and real estate inventory issues [4][10] 2. **Cyclical Industry Analysis**: The cyclical nature of industries often begins with demand and ends with supply. A review of 89 cyclical sub-industries showed that 82% of cycles start from demand changes, while 57% end due to supply expansion [2][34] 3. **Long-term Economic Trends**: The report highlights a shift in Chinese companies' focus from growth to profitability, with a decrease in diversification among A-share listed companies, indicating a trend towards focusing on core business areas [14][18]