【深圳商报讯】（记者 詹钰叶）在市场赚钱效应的推动下，今年以来超过九成的权益基金取得正收 益，新发产品规模增长。与此同时，超100只权益基金在年内"退场"，多数触及规模清盘红线，还有多 只基金年内发布清盘预警公告。 据同花顺数据，今年以来清盘的基金共有370只，同比增加近24%。此外，年内还有多只基金发布清盘 预警。同花顺数据显示，今年以来有120余只基金发布了超600条清盘预警公告。剔除已清盘的产品，还 有超过90只基金处于清盘边缘，近半数为权益产品。 同花顺数据显示，截至11月25日，股票型基金今年以来的整体平均收益率为24.45%，混合型基金收益 为22.17%。据可统计数据，今年以来有4687只主动权益基金（仅统计A份额）实现正收益，占全部主动 权益基金的比例接近95%。 今年以来新成立的主动权益类基金数量接近300只，总发行规模达到1603亿元，同比增长约140%。 ...

| 研究所： | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | | 赵阳 S0350525100003 | | | | zhaoy05@ghzq.com.cn | | 联系人 | ： | 郭可凡 S0350124070038 | | | | guokf@ghzq.com.cn | 2025 年 11 月 24 日 策略周报 [Table_Title] 基金发行端回暖，杠杆资金有所放缓 ——流动性周报 11 月第 1 期 最近一年走势 投资要点: 相关报告 《存款搬家如何演绎——牛市资金面专题研究 (一)*袁稻雨，胡国鹏》——2025-08-10 ETF 系列报告（一）*袁稻雨，胡国鹏》—— 2025-05-30 《业绩基准如何选择*袁稻雨，胡国鹏》—— 2025-05-29 《如何看待近期涨价领域拥挤度偏高的情况*赵 阳》——2025-11-23 《美股 AI 泡沫度量与互联网周期定位*袁野，赵阳》 ——2025-11-16 国海证券研究所 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 1. 宏观流动性保持宽松，央行通过公开市场操作开展 7 天逆回购 净投放 5540 亿元，连续两周实现净投放。同时， ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current phase of the A-share market, analyzing it through the lens of the classic bull market three-stage theory, and emphasizes the importance of balancing offensive and defensive strategies in investment as the market transitions from valuation recovery to performance-driven growth [4][6][25]. Group 1: Bull Market Phases - The bull market is divided into three stages: valuation recovery, performance-driven growth, and emotional-driven bubble [6][7]. - The first stage, characterized by policy shifts and risk appetite recovery, has been completed as of October 2024, with the market returning to historical valuation levels [7][9]. - The second stage, currently in progress, focuses on performance verification, with A-share companies' profits growing by 5.4% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, and significant growth in sectors like TMT and manufacturing [9][10]. Group 2: Sector Performance - The TMT sector showed strong performance, with electronic profits up 45.3% year-on-year, and AI-related indices seeing profits increase by 83.3% [10]. - The midstream manufacturing sector also performed well, with profits in the power equipment and new energy sectors growing by 52.5% [10]. - The energy and materials sector benefited from policy changes, with industrial metals and precious metals seeing profit increases of 45.2% and 58.7%, respectively [10]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Strategy - The current market dynamics suggest a need for a balanced strategy, moving from an aggressive "only attack" approach to a more defensive "balance attack and defense" strategy [18][25]. - A suggested allocation strategy includes maintaining a 50% equity position, diversifying across growth, stable, high-dividend, and cyclical sectors to mitigate risks [19][20]. - The article warns that if the market enters the third phase characterized by bubble-like valuations and extreme market sentiment, a shift to a defensive strategy will be necessary [22][23]. Group 4: Long-term Considerations - The article highlights the importance of sustainable performance growth, questioning whether the current high growth in tech stocks can be maintained amid macroeconomic challenges [13][14]. - It draws parallels with the U.S. market's slow bull experience, emphasizing the need for solid earnings support for a sustainable bull market [14]. - The article concludes that for the A-share market to transition into a long-term bull market, several factors, including macroeconomic stability and improved corporate governance, must be addressed [16][25].

今年4月8日以来，A股市场一路震荡走高，人工智能、创新药等热点板块相继引爆市场。近段时间，沪 指连续站上多个关键点位，并于10月底重回4000点上方。展望2026年，A股将有怎样的走势？ 央广网北京11月21日消息（记者 冯方）11月21日，在隔夜美股三大指数集体收跌后，亚太市场也受到 冲击。当日，日经225指数收跌2.4%，韩国综合指数收跌3.79%，A股沪指收跌2.45%。此次股市调整的 主要原因是什么？对后市行情如何展望？央广财经记者就此采访了多家公募基金公司。 市场调整背后有何原因？ 11月21日，A股三大指数悉数收跌，家电、传媒、食品饮料等板块相对抗跌，分别下跌0.27%、0.5%、 0.89%，综合、有色金属、基础化工板块跌幅相对较大，分别下跌5.41%、5.30%、5.26%。 对此，永赢基金表示，今日（21日）A股市场出现显著调整，主要受到外部市场波动的负面冲击。具体 而言，昨日美国公布的9月非农就业数据超预期，市场对美联储12月降息的预期明显降温，导致美股高 开低走，盘中大幅跳水并最终收跌，VIX恐慌指数亦攀升至近期高位。受此情绪传导，今日亚太市场普 遍承压，日经225、韩国综指等主要指数均 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent developments in public fund of funds (FOF) in China, highlighting the growth in the number and scale of FOF products, as well as their investment preferences and directions in the third quarter of 2025 [1]. Group 1: Market Trends and Growth - The FOF market has seen a resurgence in 2025, driven by a recovery in the stock market, leading to increased activity in the fund market [2][3]. - As of September 30, 2025, there are 513 FOF funds, with 50 new funds established in 2025. The total asset scale reached 200.11 billion yuan, an increase of 65.42 billion yuan from the end of 2024 [4]. Group 2: Investment Preferences - FOFs have significantly increased their allocation to short-term bond funds, with nearly half of the top 10 funds held by FOFs being short-term bond funds. The total market value of holdings in the Hai Fu Tong Zhong Zheng Short Bond ETF rose from 1.8 billion yuan at the end of Q2 to 3.3 billion yuan at the end of Q3 [6]. - The shift in FOFs' bond fund allocation from off-market to on-market is noted, with a preference for ETFs among the top holdings [7][9]. Group 3: Gold Investments - FOFs have continued to increase their exposure to gold, with 139 funds holding gold-related investments totaling 2.8 billion yuan by the end of Q3 2025. The Hua An Yi Fu Gold ETF remains the most popular, with a total market value of 1.73 billion yuan [10][11]. Group 4: Equity Fund Allocation - FOFs have shifted their equity fund allocations from value to growth styles, with significant increases in holdings of growth-oriented funds such as Yi Fang Da Ke Rong Mixed Fund and Xin Quan He Run [12][13]. - Notably, several value-oriented funds have been reduced in FOF portfolios, indicating a strategic pivot towards growth sectors like technology and new energy [14]. Group 5: International Investments - FOFs are increasingly utilizing ETFs to gain exposure to overseas markets, with total holdings in QDII funds reaching 4.49 billion yuan by the end of Q3 2025. The focus remains on developed markets such as Hong Kong and the U.S. [17][19]. - The popularity of Hong Kong mutual recognition funds is also highlighted, with a total market value of 1.6 billion yuan held by FOFs, primarily in bond funds [20][22]. Group 6: Insights for Individual Investors - The asset allocation strategies and fund selection approaches of FOFs provide valuable insights for individual investors, emphasizing the importance of diversified portfolios that include commodities and cross-border assets [23]. - A "core + satellite" investment strategy is recommended, prioritizing stable funds for core holdings while incorporating higher-risk, high-growth funds for potential additional returns [24].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant recovery in the public fund issuance market since 2025, with a total of 1,378 funds issued, surpassing last year's 1,143 and marking a three-year high [1][2] - The average subscription period for newly issued funds has decreased to 16.31 days from 22.63 days last year, indicating a faster fundraising process [1] - Equity funds have emerged as the dominant category, with 999 equity funds issued this year, accounting for 72.50% of the total [1][2] Group 2 - A notable "stock-bond seesaw effect" has been observed, with 762 stock funds issued this year, representing 55.30% of the total, while bond funds have decreased to 250, down from 330 last year [2] - The rise of index-based investments is significant, with 813 index funds issued, making up 59% of the total, and 96.59% of stock funds being index funds [2] - In the QDII fund sector, index funds dominate, with 15 out of 18 new QDII funds being index-based, a remarkable 83.33% [2] Group 3 - Multiple factors are driving the recovery in fund issuance, including a positive trend in the A-share market and improved corporate earnings due to economic recovery and policy implementation [3] - Central banks' accommodative monetary policies have maintained ample market liquidity, attracting international capital into the Chinese market [3] - Increased investor confidence, particularly among younger investors who are more open to new investment vehicles, is contributing to the growth of the public fund industry [3]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - This week, 33 new funds are set to launch, with equity funds making up two-thirds of the total offerings, reflecting a strong interest in equity investments amid market fluctuations [1][4]. Fund Launch Details - A total of 26 out of the 33 new funds will start issuing on Monday, November 17, accounting for 78.79% of the week's new funds. The average subscription period for these new funds is 21.27 days, which is longer than previous periods, likely due to recent market conditions [2][4]. - The longest subscription period is for the China Aviation Xiangtai 6-month closed fund at 89 days, while the shortest is for the浦银安盛港股通消费 and 广发上证科创板100增强策略ETF联接 at just 5 days [2]. Fund Types and Goals - Among the new funds, 22 are equity funds, representing two-thirds of the total. There are 10 index equity funds, with two tracking the CSI 500 index. The funds also include a variety of themes such as high dividend and technology growth [4][5]. - 18 of the new funds have specified fundraising targets, with five aiming for 8 billion units. The lowest target is set at 1 billion units for two specific funds [3]. Fixed Income and FOF Products - In the fixed income category, only 7 new bond funds are being launched, indicating a decline in interest for pure bond funds as equity markets recover. However, "fixed income plus" funds are gaining traction [6][7]. - Four mixed-asset FOF products are also being introduced this week, reflecting a growing investor preference for diversified investment strategies. The average return for FOFs that have been established for over six months is 14.29% [8][9].

Group 1 - The chairman of Dongfang Securities, Gong Dexiong, is expected to take on a new role, which may impact the company's strategic continuity in the short term [1] - Gong Dexiong has held various positions within the company and is now being nominated for a managerial position in a state-owned enterprise [1] Group 2 - Three major shareholders of Guosheng Securities plan to reduce their holdings by up to 54.52 million shares, representing 2.82% of the company's total share capital [2] - The reduction in shareholding may raise concerns about the stability of the company's equity structure and could exert pressure on the stock price in the short term [2] Group 3 - The total issuance scale of equity funds this year has reached 141.068 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 132.25% [3] - The surge in equity fund issuance indicates a significant recovery in market confidence, with substantial inflows of new capital into A-shares [3] Group 4 - The public REITs market is experiencing a downturn, with new listings facing immediate price drops and a decline in subscription enthusiasm [4] - The shift from speculative trading to value-based investment in the REITs market suggests a focus on asset quality and reasonable valuations [5]

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors for analysis[3][5][7] - The content primarily focuses on market performance, fund statistics, and asset class trends without discussing quantitative models or factors[8][9][46] - No formulas, construction processes, or evaluations of quantitative models or factors are provided in the report[10][55][57]

Core Viewpoint - The total scale of public funds in China has reached a historical high of 36.74 trillion yuan, marking a nearly 7% increase from the end of the second quarter of 2025, driven by a recovering stock market and strong performance of equity funds [1][3]. Fund Scale and Growth - As of September 2025, the total net asset value of public funds in China is 36.74 trillion yuan, a 14.56% increase year-on-year and an increase of 2.35 trillion yuan in the third quarter alone [3][5]. - All major fund types, except for bond funds, experienced growth in the third quarter, with overseas investment funds showing the fastest growth rate of 33.18% [4][5]. Fund Type Performance - The scale of various fund types at the end of the third quarter is as follows: - Stock funds: 5.94 trillion yuan, up 25.3% from the end of June - Mixed funds: 3.91 trillion yuan, up 17.89% - Money market funds: 14.40 trillion yuan, up 3.32% - Overseas investment funds: 904.52 billion yuan, up 33.18% - FOF: 193.49 billion yuan, up 17.22% - Bond funds: 10.62 trillion yuan, down 1.33% [4][5]. Market Leaders - The top ten fund management companies account for 41.31% of the total market scale, with their combined net asset value reaching 15.06 trillion yuan [5][6]. - The leading fund management companies by scale as of September 2025 are: - E Fund: 2.53 trillion yuan - Huaxia Fund: 2.25 trillion yuan - GF Fund: 1.61 trillion yuan - Southern Fund: 1.48 trillion yuan - Other notable firms include Tianhong, Jiashi, Boshi, and Huitianfu, all exceeding 1 trillion yuan [6][7]. Investor Behavior - There is a significant divergence in the subscription of equity funds, with tool-type products like industry-themed ETFs and cross-border ETFs being highly favored, achieving net subscriptions of over 10 billion units each [10][11]. - Conversely, some actively managed equity funds have also seen substantial net subscriptions, but their "attraction" is not as strong as that of ETFs [12]. - Despite the overall market expansion, there is a notable trend of profit-taking among investors, particularly in sectors that have recently rebounded [12][13].